Hornsby - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hornsby - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Hornsby - East's population was approximately 12,798 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 855 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 11,943. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 12,798 in June 2025 plus 95 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 4,979 persons per square kilometer, placing Hornsby - East in the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 7.2% since the 2021 census exceeded both its SA3 area (4.5%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 85.3% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Demographic trends suggest that Hornsby - East will experience population growth just below the national median, increasing by 928 persons to reach approximately 13,726 by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 7.2% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hornsby - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Hornsby - East has seen approximately 21 new homes approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 105 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. On average, about 0.7 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period.

This suggests that new supply has been keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of these properties is around $337,000. In FY-26, approximately $61.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. When compared to Greater Sydney, Hornsby - East has about two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 7th percentile of areas assessed, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings.

This lower level of development activity reflects market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity in Hornsby - East shows a mix of 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% medium to high-density housing. This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 4048 people per dwelling approval, the area reflects a highly mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Hornsby - East is forecasted to gain approximately 928 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Hornsby - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect the region. Notable initiatives include Twin Towers Hornsby, Hornsby Town Centre Masterplan and TOD Rezoning, Linea Apartments (94-98 George Street), Westfield Hornsby Transport Oriented Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Hornsby - East lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Hornsby - East has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 8.7% in December 2025. This rate is 4.5% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's at 68.8%. According to Census responses, 42.3% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 8.6%. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.9, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.4%, labour force grew by 1.1%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hornsby - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.1% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Hornsby - East SA2 has a high national median assessed income of $61,734 and an average income of $76,926. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $68,105 (median) and $84,865 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Hornsby - East cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. The largest income segment comprises 36.9% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,722 residents), similar to the surrounding region at 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Hornsby - East features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Hornsby - East's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, had 12.0% houses and 87.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hornsby - East was at 17.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 53.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,115, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was $440, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Hornsby - East's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,115 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hornsby - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.5% of all households, including 28.4% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Hornsby - East demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Hornsby - East shows significant surpassing of broader benchmarks, with 52.2% of residents aged 15 years and over holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW as of the latest available data. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 33.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 16.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational pathways account for 22.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and over, with advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 10.9%. Educational participation is notably high in the area, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest available data.

This includes 7.7% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hornsby - East has 42 active transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 44 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,294 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes in this residential area are outward-bound. Car remains the dominant mode at 52%, followed by train at 27% and walking at 12%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 0.5, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 756 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 126 weekly trips per stop.

Hornsby - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results in Hornsby - East, with AreaSearch's assessment indicating very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (around 7,294 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 6.3 and 5.5% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 78.8%, report being completely clear of medical ailments, which is higher than the 74.6% reported across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 14.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,876 people), with health outcomes among seniors ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Hornsby - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hornsby-East has one of the most culturally diverse populations in Australia, with 62.4% speaking a language other than English at home and 61.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hornsby-East, comprising 35.2% of its population. However, Hinduism is significantly overrepresented, making up 15.6%, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are Other (23.2%), Chinese (19.9%), and English (13.0%). Notably, Korean (3.6% vs regional 1.1%), Russian (1.0% vs 0.4%), and Filipino (4.1% vs 2.0%) ethnicities are also overrepresented in Hornsby-East compared to the region's averages.

Hornsby - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Hornsby - East's median age is nearly 36 years, closely matching Greater Sydney's average of 37, which is modestly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hornsby - East has a higher proportion of residents aged 25-34 (20.1%), but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.5%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.6%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 has grown from 7.4% to 8.6%, while those aged 15 to 24 increased from 10.2% to 11.3%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 0 to 4 has declined from 6.5% to 4.8%, and those aged 35 to 44 have decreased from 18.8% to 17.6%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Hornsby - East's age profile will change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 90%, adding 498 residents to reach 1,051. Residents aged 65 and above are expected to drive 75% of population growth, reflecting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.