Hornsby - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hornsby - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Hornsby - East's population is approximately 12,750. This figure reflects an increase of 807 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,943. The growth was inferred from ABS estimates: 12,652 in June 2024 and an additional 100 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 4,961 persons per square kilometer, placing Hornsby - East among the top 10% of locations nationally. The area's growth rate of 6.8% since the 2021 Census exceeded both its SA3 area (4.3%) and SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Hornsby - East is projected to grow by 1,117 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall gain of approximately 8.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hornsby - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Hornsby - East has seen approximately 21 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with a total of 105 homes approved during this period and one more approved so far in FY-26. The area has experienced an average of 0.7 people moving in per dwelling built each year over these five financial years. This indicates that new housing supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

New properties are being constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $337,000. In FY-26, Hornsby - East has recorded $61.0 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hornsby - East has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 7th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. The area's development activity shows a skew towards compact living, with 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% medium and high-density housing.

This trend offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. Hornsby - East reflects a highly mature market, with around 4048 people per dwelling approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain 1,019 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Hornsby - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely to affect this region. Notable ones include Twin Towers Hornsby, Hornsby Town Centre Master Plan, Westfield Hornsby Transport Oriented Development, and Linea Apartments (94-98 George Street). The following list details those most relevant.

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The labour market performance in Hornsby - East lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Hornsby East has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate as of September 2025 was 9.9%.

There were 7,015 residents employed at this time, with the area's unemployment rate being 5.7% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Hornsby East is high at 67.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 3.8% versus the regional average of 8.6%. The worker-to-resident ratio, based on Census data, indicates substantial local employment opportunities at 0.9 workers per resident. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Hornsby East's labour force increased by 0.7% while employment declined by 1.5%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 2.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and an unemployment rate increase of 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-November-25, NSW's employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years and ten years, Hornsby East's employment should increase by 7.4% and 15.1% respectively, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific projections against the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Hornsby - East SA2 is high nationally. The median income is $57,848 and the average income stands at $74,602. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Hornsby - East would be approximately $65,143 (median) and $84,009 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Hornsby - East cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 36.9% of the community (4,704 individuals), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Hornsby - East features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Hornsby - East's dwelling structure in its latest Census evaluation showed 12.0% houses and 87.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Sydney metro had 61.4% houses and 38.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Hornsby - East was at 17.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.6% and rented ones at 53.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,115, below Sydney metro's $2,500. Median weekly rent in Hornsby - East was $440, compared to Sydney metro's $480. Nationally, Hornsby - East's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,115 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hornsby - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.5 percent of all households, including 28.4 percent couples with children, 24.3 percent couples without children, and 10.1 percent single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.5 percent, with lone person households at 30.8 percent and group households making up 4.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Hornsby - East demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

In Hornsby - East, educational attainment is notably high, with 52.2% of residents aged 15 years and above holding university qualifications. This surpasses the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%, indicating a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational pathways account for 22.7% of qualifications among those aged 15 years and above, with advanced diplomas making up 11.8% and certificates 10.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.7% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 37 active stops operating in Hornsby - East, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 47 individual routes, collectively facilitating 7,088 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 1,012 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 191 weekly trips per stop.

Hornsby - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Hornsby - East shows excellent health outcomes with low prevalence of common conditions across all ages. Private health cover stands at approximately 56% (~7,203 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 60.8%.

Common medical conditions include mental health issues (6.3%) and asthma (5.5%), with 78.8% reporting no ailments, higher than Greater Sydney's 74.0%. The area has 14.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,857 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 17.1%. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Hornsby - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hornsby-East has one of the highest cultural diversities in Australia, with 62.4% of its residents speaking a language other than English at home and 61.7% born overseas. Christianity is the predominant religion in Hornsby-East, comprising 35.2% of the population. However, Hinduism is notably overrepresented, making up 15.6% compared to Greater Sydney's average of 7.3%.

In terms of ancestry, 'Other' tops at 23.2%, substantially higher than the regional average of 12.9%. Chinese ancestry follows at 19.9%, above the regional average of 11.6%. English ancestry is notably lower at 13.0% compared to the region's 21.7%. Notable divergences include Korean (3.6% vs regional 2.0%), Russian (1.0% vs 0.6%), and Filipino (4.1% vs 2.1%) ethnic groups.

Hornsby - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Hornsby-East's median age is 36 years, nearly matching Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly below Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hornsby-East has a higher percentage of residents aged 25-34 (19.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (8.6%). This concentration of 25-34 year-olds is well above the national average of 14.5%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 10.2% to 11.5%, while the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 7.4% to 8.6%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 age group has declined from 18.8% to 17.5%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Hornsby-East's age profile. The 75 to 84 cohort is projected to grow by 104%, adding 567 residents to reach a total of 1,116. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 75% of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. Conversely, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.