Hornsby - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hornsby - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Hornsby - East's population is approximately 12,794 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 851 people, a 7.1% rise from the 2021 Census total of 11,943 residents. The growth was inferred from ABS estimated resident population data of 12,652 in June 2024 and 97 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 4,978 persons per square kilometer, placing Hornsby - East among the top 10% of locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth exceeded both its SA4 region (5.8%) and SA3 area, indicating its status as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.4% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. These projections estimate Hornsby - East's population to increase by approximately 1,117 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 7.6% over the 17-year period based on latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hornsby - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Hornsby - East has seen approximately 21 new homes approved annually, with a total of 105 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. In FY-26, one home has been approved so far. On average, 0.7 people have moved to the area each year for every dwelling built during these five years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $337,000. In FY-26, $61.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Hornsby - East has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 7th percentile nationally when assessed for buyer choice. This suggests relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings.

The activity is also lower than the national average, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity shows that 25.0% of new homes are detached houses, while 75.0% are medium or high-density housing. This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. Hornsby - East has around 4048 people per dwelling approval, indicating a highly mature market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Hornsby - East is forecasted to gain 975 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Hornsby - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 15 such projects that could potentially impact this area. Among these key projects are Twin Towers Hornsby, Hornsby Town Centre Master Plan, Linea Apartments (94-98 George Street), and Westfield Hornsby Transport Oriented Development. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Hornsby - East lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Hornsby - East has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. As of September 2025, the unemployment rate is 9.9%. There are 7,015 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 5.7% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 42.3% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and retail trade. The area specialises in health care & social assistance with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, construction has lower representation at 3.8% versus the regional average of 8.6%. There is a substantial local employment opportunity ratio of 0.9 workers per resident. From September 2024 to September 2025, the labour force increased by 0.7% while employment declined by 1.5%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 2.0 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Hornsby - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.1% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Hornsby - East SA2 has a high national median income of $61,734 and an average income of $76,926. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $67,204 (median) and $83,742 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that Hornsby - East's household, family, and personal incomes cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 36.9% of the community (4,720 individuals), similar to the metropolitan region where this cohort represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Hornsby - East features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Hornsby - East, as per the latest Census, consisted of 12.0% houses and 87.9% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metro had a higher proportion of houses at 55.9%, with 44.1% being other dwellings. Home ownership in Hornsby - East was lower than that of Sydney metro, standing at 17.6%. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (53.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,115, which is below the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Hornsby - East was recorded at $440, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Hornsby - East's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hornsby - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.5% of all households, including 28.4% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Hornsby - East demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Hornsby - East residents aged 15+ have a higher educational attainment than national averages: 52.2% hold university qualifications compared to Australia's 30.4% and NSW's 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 33.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational qualifications account for 22.7%, with advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 10.9%. Educational participation is high, with 28.9% currently enrolled in formal education: 7.7% in primary, 7.5% in tertiary, and 5.0% in secondary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.7% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Hornsby - East has 42 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 44 routes, facilitating 5,294 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 208 meters to the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode at 52%, followed by train at 27% and walking at 12%. Vehicle ownership stands at 0.5 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 42.3% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 756 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 126 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hornsby - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Hornsby - East shows excellent health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 57% of the total population (~7,292 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 6.3% and 5.5% of residents respectively. 78.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,975 people). Health outcomes among seniors are strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Hornsby - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hornsby-East is among the most culturally diverse areas in Australia, with 62.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home as of 2016 Census data. In Hornsby-East, 61.7% were born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 35.2%.

However, Hinduism had significant representation at 15.6%, which is substantially higher than Greater Sydney's average of 5.2%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups in Hornsby-East as of 2016 were 'Other', comprising 23.2% of the population, Chinese at 19.9%, and English at 13.0%. Notably, Korean was overrepresented at 3.6%, compared to the regional average of 1.1%. Russian also had notable representation at 1.0%, compared to the regional average of 0.4%, as did Filipino at 4.1% versus the regional average of 2.0%.

Hornsby - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Hornsby - East has a median age of 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure and remaining close to Australia's 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 18.8%, higher than Greater Sydney, while the 5-14 cohort stands at 8.5%. Between 2021 and present, the 65-74 age group has risen from 7.4% to 9.0%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 35-44 group declined from 18.8% to 17.2%, and the 25-34 group dropped from 20.1% to 18.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Hornsby - East's age structure. The 75-84 group is projected to grow by 90%, reaching 1,116 from 588. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 76% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 0-4 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.