Hornsby - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hornsby - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Hornsby - East's population is around 12,794 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 851 people (7.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 11,943 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 12,652 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 97 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 4,978 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch, making land in the area a highly sought resource. Hornsby - East's 7.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (5.8%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 81.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, a population increase just below the median of statistical areas across the nation is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,117 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, recording a gain of 7.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hornsby - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Hornsby - East has seen around 21 new homes approved each year, with 105 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 2 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.7 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $337,000. Additionally, $61.0 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Hornsby - East has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person while it places among the 7th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints. New building activity shows 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% medium and high-density housing. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 4048 people per dwelling approval, Hornsby - East reflects a highly mature market.

Population forecasts indicate Hornsby - East will gain 975 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Hornsby - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 15 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Twin Towers Hornsby, Hornsby Town Centre Master Plan, Linea Apartments (94-98 George Street), and Westfield Hornsby Transport Oriented Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Hornsby - East lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Hornsby - East possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 8.7%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,089 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 4.5% above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 42.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, construction shows lower representation at 3.8% versus the regional average of 8.6%. The ratio of 0.9 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates substantial local employment opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.4% and the labour force increased by 1.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Hornsby - East. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Hornsby - East's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.4% over five years and 15.1% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Hornsby - East SA2 is very high nationally, with the median assessed at $61,734 while the average income stands at $76,926. This contrasts to Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $67,204 (median) and $83,742 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Hornsby - East cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 36.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,720 residents), aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 48th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Hornsby - East features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Hornsby - East, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 12.0% houses and 87.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Hornsby - East was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 17.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (53.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,115, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $440, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Hornsby - East's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Hornsby - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.5% of all households, comprising 28.4% couples with children, 24.3% couples without children, and 10.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.5%, with lone person households at 30.8% and group households comprising 4.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Hornsby - East demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Hornsby - East significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 52.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 32.2% in NSW. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 33.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (16.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational pathways account for 22.7% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (10.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.7% in primary education, 7.5% in tertiary education, and 5.0% pursuing secondary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 42 active transport stops operating within Hornsby - East, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 44 individual routes, collectively providing 5,294 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 52%, with 27% by train and 12% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 0.5 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 42.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 756 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 126 weekly trips per individual stop.

Hornsby - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Hornsby - East, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 57% of the total population (~7,292 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 6.3% and 5.5% of residents, respectively, while 78.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 15.4% of residents aged 65 and over (1,975 people). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Hornsby - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hornsby - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 62.4% of its population speaking a language other than English at home and 61.7% born overseas. The main religion in Hornsby - East is Christianity, which makes up 35.2% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Hinduism, which comprises 15.6% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Hornsby - East are Other, comprising 23.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 16.0%, Chinese, comprising 19.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%, and English, comprising 13.0% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 19.0%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Korean is notably overrepresented at 3.6% of Hornsby - East (vs 1.1% regionally), Russian at 1.0% (vs 0.4%) and Filipino at 4.1% (vs 2.0%).

Hornsby - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 37, Hornsby - East is equal to the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and remains comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 18.8% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 5 - 14 cohort is less prevalent at 8.5%. Since 2021, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 7.4% to 9.0% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.2% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort has declined from 18.8% to 17.2% and the 25 to 34 group dropped from 20.1% to 18.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Hornsby - East's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 90% (527 people), reaching 1,116 from 588. The aging population dynamic is clear, with those 65+ comprising 76% of projected growth. On the other hand, the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.