Hornsby - East

An assessment of population growth drivers in Hornsby - East reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Hornsby - East stands at approximately 12,798 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 855 individuals (7.2%) compared to the 11,943 residents recorded in the 2021 Census. This population shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 12,798 alongside 95 validated new addresses identified since the Census. With this population level, the area reaches a density of 4,979 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the top 10% of all national territories evaluated by AreaSearch and highlighting the high demand for local land. The 7.2% population gain since the 2021 census outpaced both the SA3 area (4.5%) and the SA4 region, establishing the locality as a regional growth leader. The primary driver of this demographic expansion was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 85.3% of the total population increase during recent times.

AreaSearch utilizes ABS and Geoscience Australia projections published in 2024, which use 2022 as their baseline year, for each SA2 area. In instances where SA2 territories lack this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 using a 2021 baseline are applied instead. The age bracket growth rates derived from these sources are also projected forward for all districts from 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic patterns, the locality is projected to experience a population rise slightly below the national median for statistical areas. Specifically, the population is set to expand by 928 individuals by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP figures, representing a total increase of 7.2% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Hornsby - East, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

In Hornsby - East, approximately 21 residential properties receive planning approval annually, resulting in 105 total home approvals during the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25) and 8 approvals registered in FY-26 so far. Over the past 5 financial years (from FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 2.4 new residents were added for each constructed dwelling, indicating solid demand that helps maintain property values, with the average construction cost for these new dwellings standing at $337,000. Furthermore, commercial development approvals have reached $61.0 million during this financial year, pointing to strong investment in the local business sector.

Compared to Greater Sydney, the rate of new residential approvals per person in Hornsby - East is about two-thirds lower, placing it in the 7th percentile of all areas analysed nationwide, which restricts options for buyers and sustains interest in pre-existing properties. This development rate is also lower than the national average, reflecting a mature housing market and pointing to possible constraints on new construction. Current construction activity consists of 25.0% detached homes and 75.0% medium to high-density options. This concentration of higher-density dwellings provides affordable entry points into the local market and draws interest from downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. The mature state of the local market is further highlighted by a ratio of approximately 4103 people for every dwelling approval.

Demographic projections indicate that Hornsby - East will add 928 residents up to 2041 (calculated from the most recent AreaSearch quarterly dataset). Given the current pace of construction, the supply of new housing may fail to keep pace with this population growth, which could intensify competition among buyers and drive up property prices.

Hornsby - East has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, major developments, and urban planning decisions represent significant influences on regional performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 15 projects that are expected to impact the local community. Key developments include Twin Towers Hornsby, Hornsby Town Centre Masterplan and TOD Rezoning, Linea Apartments (94-98 George Street), and Westfield Hornsby Transport Oriented Development, with the detailed list highlighting the most relevant projects.

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Employment conditions in Hornsby - East remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

The local workforce in Hornsby - East is highly educated, featuring a strong concentration of professionals, a jobless rate of 6.8%, and an estimated job growth of 4.3% over the prior year. In March 2026, there were 7,256 employed residents, while the unemployment rate was 2.7% higher than the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%. Workforce participation levels were generally comparable to the Greater Sydney rate of 69.1%. Census data indicates that a high proportion of residents, specifically 42.3%, worked from home, although this figure may be influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are healthcare & social assistance, professional & technical services, and retail trade. The area shows a high concentration of workers in healthcare & social assistance, with employment numbers at 1.4 times the regional average. Conversely, construction is underrepresented, making up only 3.8% of the local workforce compared to the regional average of 8.6%. The presence of 0.9 workers for every resident at the time of the Census indicates a healthy availability of local jobs.

AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics shows that for the year ending March 2026, employment numbers rose by 4.3% and the total labor force grew by 1.4%, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate of 2.7 percentage points. Over the same period, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 1.9% and labor force growth of 1.9%, accompanied by a minor decline. The national employment projections released in May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia offer additional context on future labor demand in Hornsby - East. These five and ten-year forecasts have been aligned with the local industry profile to estimate future growth. Although total national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary widely by industry. Projecting these industry-specific trends onto the employment profile of Hornsby - East suggests local employment will rise by 7.4% over five years and 15.1% over ten years (note that this is a basic weighted extrapolation for demonstration purposes and does not incorporate local population forecasts).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The most recent postcode-level ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 show that incomes in the Hornsby - East SA2 are exceptionally high by national standards, with a median of $61,734 and an average of $76,926. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded a median income of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be roughly $68,105 for the median and $84,865 for the average. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and individual incomes in Hornsby - East sit around the 59th percentile nationally. The largest income bracket consists of 36.9% of the population earning between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (representing 4,722 residents), which is similar to the broader region where this group makes up 30.9%. Affordability pressures are significant, with residents retaining only 79.3% of their income, ranking in the 48th percentile, while the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 7th decile for income.

Hornsby - East features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

According to the latest Census data, the housing mix in Hornsby - East consisted of 12.0% separate houses and 87.9% alternative housing types (including semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwellings), whereas the wider Sydney metropolitan area recorded 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Hornsby - East was lower than the Sydney metropolitan average, standing at 17.6%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (28.6%) or rented (53.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,115 was well below the Sydney metropolitan average of $2,427, and the median weekly rent was $440 compared to $470 across the metro area. On a national level, monthly mortgage payments in Hornsby - East are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also above the national figure of $375.

Hornsby - East features high concentrations of group households and lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 64.5%, which is split into couples with children at 28.4%, couples without children at 24.3%, and single-parent homes at 10.1%. The remaining 35.5% consists of non-family households, with single-person households representing 30.8% and group households making up 4.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 individuals is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Hornsby - East demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The level of education in Hornsby - East is higher than average, with 52.2% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% across NSW. This educational trend positions the population well for employment in knowledge-based industries. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 33.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 16.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.5%. Vocational education accounts for 22.7% of qualifications among residents aged 15 and over, divided between advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (10.9%).

Engagement in learning is high, with 28.9% of local residents enrolled in formal studies. This population includes 7.7% in primary school, 7.5% in higher education, and 5.0% attending high school.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transport options reveals 42 active transit stops in Hornsby - East, including both rail and bus facilities. These stops are served by 44 distinct routes that coordinate 5,294 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 208 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and the majority of commuters travel outside the area, with private vehicles serving as the primary transport mode at 52%, followed by trains at 27% and walking at 12%. Average vehicle ownership is 0.5 cars per household, which is below the regional average. A high proportion of residents, 42.3%, worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-era travel conditions.

Public transport services average 756 departures per day across all active routes, which represents approximately 126 weekly departures for each transit stop.

Hornsby - East's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

According to AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality statistics and chronic disease trends, health outcomes in Hornsby - East are excellent, characterized by a low incidence of common health issues across all age categories. Additionally, private health insurance coverage is high, with approximately 57% of the population (~7,294 people) holding policies, compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most frequent health conditions reported by residents were mental health difficulties and asthma, which affect 6.3 and 5.5% of the population respectively. In contrast, 78.8% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The working-age population exhibits strong health profiles with low rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 14.7% of the population (1,876 people), and senior health outcomes are positive, with national rankings aligning closely with the broader community.

Hornsby - East is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Hornsby - East ranks among the most multicultural communities in the nation, with 62.4% of residents speaking a language other than English at home and 61.7% born outside of Australia. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, accounting for 35.2% of the population. However, the area features a notable concentration of residents practicing Hinduism, who make up 15.6% of the population, which is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 5.2%.

Regarding parental country of birth, the three largest ancestry groups in Hornsby - East are Other at 23.2% of the population (higher than the regional average of 16.0%), Chinese at 19.9% (higher than the regional average of 8.4%), and English at 13.0% (lower than the regional average of 19.0%). There are also notable differences in other ethnic backgrounds, with Korean residents accounting for 3.6% of the area (compared to 1.1% regionally), Russian at 1.0% (compared to 0.4%), and Filipino at 4.1% (compared to 2.0%).

Hornsby - East's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Hornsby - East is 36 years, which is close to the Greater Sydney average of 37 and slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, the area has a higher share of residents aged 25 - 34 (20.1%) but fewer children aged 5 - 14 (8.5%). The proportion of 25 - 34 year-olds is higher than the national average of 14.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 demographic has increased from 7.4% to 8.6% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort grew from 10.2% to 11.3%. Meanwhile, children aged 0 to 4 decreased from 6.5% to 4.8%, and the 35 to 44 age bracket fell from 18.8% to 17.6%. Projections indicate that the age profile of Hornsby - East will change by 2041, with the 75 to 84 cohort expected to grow by 90%, adding 498 residents to reach a total of 1,051. Older residents aged 65+ are expected to account for 75% of total population growth, highlighting local aging trends, whereas the 5 to 14 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in size.