Bayview (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bayview reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Bayview's estimated population is around 3,823. This reflects an increase of 16 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,807. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,818 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024), along with two validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,016 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Bayview demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest a median increase, with Bayview expected to increase by 390 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 12.6% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Bayview, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Bayview has recorded around 6 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 33 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded.

Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), there has been an average of 2.9 new residents gained for each dwelling built, indicating healthy demand which should support property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $828,000, revealing that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bayview records about 59% of the building activity per person while it places among the 9th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing dwellings. This activity is likewise lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and pointing to possible development constraints.

Recent development has been entirely comprised of detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Interestingly, developers are building more traditional houses than the current mix suggests (57.0% at Census), indicating continued strong demand for family homes despite density pressures. The location has approximately 1947 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Bayview adding 480 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bayview has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified four projects that are expected to impact the area. Among these key projects are Pittwater Plaza Redevelopment, Warriewood Valley Release Area, Northern Beaches B-Line Program, and Mona Vale Golf Avenue Apartment Development. The following list provides details on those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Bayview has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Bayview has an educated workforce with notable representation in the technology sector. Its unemployment rate is 4.8%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 1,633 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.6% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Bayview is significantly lower at 45.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors for residents include professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and construction. Bayview specializes in professional & technical jobs with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Public administration & safety has limited presence with 2.8% employment compared to 5.7% regionally. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. In the 12-month period, labour force decreased by 0.8% and employment declined by 2.6%, resulting in a 1.8 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. Conversely, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 14.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bayview's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Bayview's median income among taxpayers is $50,330. The average income in the suburb is $97,996. Nationally, this is exceptionally high compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. As of September 2025, current estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% would be approximately $54,789 (median) and $106,678 (average). Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Bayview cluster around the 60th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows 27.1% of the population fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from patterns across regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. A significant 37.2% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 18.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 56th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Bayview displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bayview's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 57.0% houses and 43.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 72.1% houses and 27.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bayview was at 59.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.9% and rented dwellings at 9.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,691, higher than Sydney metro's average of $3,200. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $850, compared to Sydney metro's $695. Nationally, Bayview's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Bayview features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 27.4% couples with children, 32.1% couples without children, and 4.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households making up 1.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than Greater Sydney's average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Bayview places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 36.0% of residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, held by 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas at 14.4% and certificates at 17.5%.

Notably, 24.7% of the population is currently engaged in formal education. This includes 8.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 4.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bayview has 38 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 884 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility in Bayview is rated as good, with residents on average located 219 meters from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 126 trips per day, which equates to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bayview is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bayview faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 66% of Bayview's total population (2,506 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 73.8%. Nationally, the average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in Bayview are arthritis (12.6%) and heart disease (6.2%). However, 63.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 72.8%. Bayview has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 40.2% (1,536 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 24.1%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Bayview are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Bayview records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bayview's population showed above-average linguistic diversity, with 7.6% speaking a language other than English at home, and 29.6% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 57.9%. Notably, Judaism was proportionally similar to Greater Sydney at 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (35.8%), Australian (23.1%), and Scottish (9.4%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: French was equally represented (0.8%) as in the region, South African slightly higher at 0.9%, and Welsh also equal at 0.7%.

Bayview ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Bayview is 58 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Bayview at 16.6%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 4.2%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national average of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 9.5% to 11.1% of the population. Conversely, the 35 to 44 age cohort has decreased from 6.6% to 5.7%. By 2041, demographic changes are forecasted for Bayview. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 122%, adding 383 residents to reach a total of 697. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 99% of population growth, indicating significant demographic aging trends. Conversely, both the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.