Bayview (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Bayview reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Bayview's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 3,834 people. This figure reflects an increase of 27 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,807 people. The recent resident population estimate of 3,832 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and validation of two new addresses since the Census date, suggests this increase. This results in a density ratio of 1,019 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively inline with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Bayview has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration during recent periods.

For population projections, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. As we examine future trends, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected for Bayview. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to increase by 390 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 12.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bayview according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Bayview has recorded approximately six residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 32 homes from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, three approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling built attracts around three new residents annually, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $828,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, $1.9 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Bayview's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bayview records about 57% of building activity per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 19th percentile among assessed areas, suggesting limited buyer options and increased demand for established dwellings.

This lower activity level may indicate market maturity or potential development constraints. New development in Bayview consists of approximately 67.0% detached houses and 33.0% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of housing types catering to various price ranges. The area has around 865 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate projects Bayview's population to grow by 469 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bayview has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact this region. Major projects include Pittwater Plaza Redevelopment, Warriewood Valley Release Area, Northern Beaches B-Line Program, and Mona Vale Golf Avenue Apartment Development. Details about these key projects can be found below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Bayview recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bayview has a highly educated workforce, with the technology sector prominently represented. As of June 2025, its unemployment rate is 4.1%, in line with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

However, workforce participation lags behind at 45.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and construction. Bayview specializes particularly in professional & technical jobs, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Public administration & safety has a limited presence, with only 2.8% employment compared to the regional average of 5.7%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, Bayview's labour force decreased by 0.1%, while employment declined by 1.5%, leading to a 1.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bayview's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Bayview's median income among taxpayers is $50,334, with an average of $97,923. This is notably higher than national figures and compares to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,681 (median) and $110,271 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Bayview are around the 60th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows 27.1% of residents earn over $4,000 weekly, contrasting with regional levels where earnings between $1,500 - $2,999 dominate at 30.9%. A significant 37.2% earn above $3,000 weekly in Bayview. High housing costs consume 18.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile nationally, with the area's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 9th decile.

Bayview displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bayview's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 57.0% houses and 43.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 72.1% houses and 27.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bayview stood at 59.9%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.9%) or rented (9.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,691, higher than Sydney metro's average of $3,200. Median weekly rent in Bayview was $850, compared to Sydney metro's $695. Nationally, Bayview's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,691 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Bayview features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.6% of all households, including 27.4% couples with children, 32.1% couples without children, and 4.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 35.4%, with lone person households at 34.6% and group households making up 1.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational achievement in Bayview places it within the top 10% nationally, reflecting strong academic performance and high qualification levels across the community

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 36.0% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 14.4% and certificates at 17.5%.

A significant 24.7% of the population is actively pursuing formal education, including 8.0% in primary, 7.5% in secondary, and 4.6% in tertiary education. St Luke's Grammar School, Bayview Campus serves the local educational needs within Bayview but has no enrolled students currently. The school focuses exclusively on primary education with secondary options available in nearby areas. There are no schools located within Bayview, requiring residents to travel for educational services. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bayview has 27 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 19 unique routes, offering a total of 914 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Bayview is rated as good, with residents on average being 220 meters away from the nearest stop.

Across all routes, there are an average of 130 daily trips, which equates to approximately 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bayview is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Bayview faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 66% of Bayview's total population (2,512 people) have private health cover, compared to 74.1% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and heart disease, impacting 12.6% and 6.2% of residents respectively.

63.9% of Bayview's residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.8% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, the area has 40.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,537 people), which is higher than the 24.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors in Bayview are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Bayview was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bayview's population showed above-average cultural diversity, with 7.6% speaking a language other than English at home and 29.6% born overseas. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 57.9%. Notably, Judaism was overrepresented in Bayview at 0.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 0.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (35.8%), Australian (23.1%), and Scottish (9.4%). Certain ethnic groups showed notable divergences: French (0.8% vs regional 0.8%), South African (0.9% vs 0.8%), and Welsh (0.7% vs 0.7%) were overrepresented in Bayview.

Bayview ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Bayview is 58 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and also above the national norm of 38 years. The 75-84 age cohort is notably over-represented in Bayview at 16.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's average. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 4.1%. This concentration of the 75-84 age group is well above the national figure of 6.0%. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of the population aged 15 to 24 has increased from 9.5% to 11.1%, while the 35 to 44 age cohort has declined from 6.6% to 5.7%. Population forecasts for Bayview indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041, with the 85+ age group projected to grow by 122%, adding 382 residents to reach a total of 697. Senior residents aged 65 and above will drive 99% of population growth in Bayview, underscoring trends towards demographic aging. Conversely, both the 25-34 age group and the 0-4 age group are projected to decrease in number.