Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga
Statistical Area - sa2

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's population was 24,697 as of Aug 2021. By Aug 2025, this had increased to around 25,017, a rise of 320 people (1.3%). This change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 25,009 in June 2024 and the addition of 176 validated new addresses since the Census date. The resulting population density is 991 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's growth rate of 1.3% since Aug 2021 compares favorably with its SA3 area's growth of 2.3%. Overseas migration was the primary driver of population gains during this period.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Nationally, above median population growth is projected, with Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga expected to grow by 3,263 persons by 2041 based on the latest numbers, representing a total increase of 13.0% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga when compared nationally

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has recorded approximately 145 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 727 homes approved over the past five years from FY-20 to FY-25, and 23 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.5 people have moved to the area per dwelling built annually over these five years. This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $467,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, $4.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has slightly higher development levels, at 41.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 49.0% detached dwellings and 51.0% medium to high-density housing, marking a shift from the current pattern of 70.0% houses. This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

The location has approximately 199 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts project Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga will gain 3,253 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that are likely to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Key projects include Umina Beach Public Preschool, Umina Beach Multi-Dwelling Housing Projects, 100-101 The Esplanade Development Site - Ettalong Beach, and Ettalong Beach Hotel Development - 216-220 Memorial Avenue. The following list details those projects likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment performance in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga has a skilled workforce with 4.5% unemployment rate as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.0% over the past year. There are 11,114 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 0.3% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation lags at 50.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction and retail trade, with notable concentration in construction at 1.4 times the regional average. Professional & technical services show lower representation at 8.1% versus the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census working population vs resident population comparison.

In the past year, employment increased by 2.0%, labour force by 2.7%, leading to a 0.6 percentage point rise in unemployment. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.6% and national figures showing NSW employment contraction by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, varying significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has a higher income level than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2022. Its median income among taxpayers is $47,124 and average income stands at $70,985, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from financial year ended June 2022 to March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $52,119 for median income and $78,509 for average income as of March 2025. According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga fall between the 22nd and 24th percentiles nationally. The largest segment comprises 27.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (6,929 residents), mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.0% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 19th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga, as per the latest Census, comprised 70.0% houses and 30.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga was at 38.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 26.7% and rented dwellings at 34.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,080, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, equal to Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,080 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.0% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 32.6% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces significant educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 20.6%, substantially lower than the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification, held by 14.4% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 28.7%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education. Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's 3 schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,894 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 986) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with 2 primary and 1 secondary schools serving distinct age groups. Limited local school capacity (7.6 places per 100 residents vs 16.0 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling, as of the most recent statistical report.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 220 active stops operating within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga area, consisting of a mix of ferry and bus services. These stops are served by 55 individual routes, collectively offering 1,917 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 147 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 273 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga faces significant health challenges, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~13,759 people) have private health cover, a notably high rate. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (9.3%), with 61.2% claiming to be free of medical ailments, compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 28.7%, or 7,179 people, which is higher than the 24.5% in Greater Sydney. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are notably challenging, yet they perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga has a cultural diversity below average, with 81.8% of its population born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 92.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion, comprising 53.3% of Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga's population, compared to 53.4% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (31.8%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) and New Zealand (0.9%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. Maltese ethnicity is also slightly higher at 0.6% versus the regional average of 0.7%.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's median age is 47 years, considerably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 11.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's figure and above the national rate of 6%. Post-2021 Census data shows this group grew from 9.3% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined slightly from 13.8% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 42%, adding 1,164 residents to reach 3,964. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 78% of population growth. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 0-4 and 35-44 age groups.