Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's population is around 25,285 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 588 people (2.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,697 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 25,008 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 189 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,002 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's 2.4% growth since the census positions it within 0.8 percentage points of the SA3 area (3.2%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which was essentially the sole driver of population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth of statistical areas across the nation is projected, with the area expected to grow by 3,263 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 11.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga when compared nationally

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has recorded around 133 residential properties granted approval per year, with 667 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 55 so far in FY-26. Given an average of only 0.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $332,000. Additionally, $4.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has slightly more development (42.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. Recent construction comprises 49.0% standalone homes and 51.0% medium and high-density housing. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 70.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 199 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Looking ahead, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga is expected to grow by 2,985 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 44thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 16 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Umina Beach Public Preschool, Umina Beach Multi-Dwelling Housing Projects, 100-101 The Esplanade Development Site - Ettalong Beach, and Ettalong Beach Hotel Development - 216-220 Memorial Avenue, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and 3.6% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,301 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is in line with Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation lags significantly (56.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 35.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, professional & technical services are under-represented, with only 8.1% of Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 3.6% while the labour force increased by 3.6%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga SA2 is slightly above average nationally, with the median assessed at $50,965 while the average income stands at $70,094. This contrasts to Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $55,480 (median) and $76,304 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga all fall between the 22nd and 24th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate the predominant cohort spans 27.7% of locals (7,003 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 18th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 70.0% houses and 30.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 38.9%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (26.7%) or rented (34.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,080, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.0% of all households, comprising 21.8% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 32.6% and group households comprising 3.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Educational outcomes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.6%) substantially below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 40.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 221 active transport stops operating within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga, comprising a mix of ferry and buses. These stops are serviced by 55 individual routes, collectively providing 2,011 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 147 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 9% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling. A high 35.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 287 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga faces significant health challenges, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads that of the average SA2 area at approximately 54% of the total population (~13,628 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.7 and 9.3% of residents, respectively, while 61.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 29.5% of residents aged 65 and over (7,456 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 81.8% of its population born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 92.9% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga is Christianity, which makes up 53.3% of the population. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga are English, comprising 31.8% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 27.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 9.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 0.5% of Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga (vs 0.4% regionally), New Zealand at 0.9% (vs 0.5%) and Maltese at 0.6% (vs 1.0%).

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

At 47 years, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's median age is considerably higher than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and also substantially exceeds the 38-year national average. The 75 - 84 age group shows strong representation at 11.6% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 8.1%. This 75 - 84 concentration is well above the national 6.1%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 9.3% to 11.6% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 9.0% to 8.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 35%, adding 1,025 residents to reach 3,964. Senior residents (65+) will drive 76% of population growth, underscoring demographic aging trends. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 35 to 44 cohorts.