Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's population was 25,017 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure reflects a growth of 320 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,697. The increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 25,009 in June 2024 and an additional 176 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 991 persons per square kilometer, comparable to averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 1.3% growth since the census is within 1.0 percentage points of the SA3 area's (2.3%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration was primarily responsible for this population growth during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 3,263 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 13.0% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga when compared nationally

Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga has recorded approximately 133 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 667 homes were approved, with an additional 47 approved in FY26 so far. On average, over these five years, there have been 0.5 new residents per year per dwelling constructed.

This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $332,000. In FY26, commercial development approvals have reached $4.9 million, reflecting the area's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga has slightly more development activity, with 42.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This balance supports both buyer choice and current property values.

Recent construction comprises 49.0% standalone homes and 51.0% medium to high-density housing, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 70.0% houses. This change indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects evolving lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. The location currently has approximately 199 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Looking ahead, Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga is projected to grow by 3,253 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Umina Beach Public Preschool, Umina Beach Multi-Dwelling Housing Projects, 100-101 The Esplanade Development Site - Ettalong Beach, and Ettalong Beach Hotel Development - 216-220 Memorial Avenue.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment landscape in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 4.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year.

There were 11,184 residents employed by September 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation was lower at 50.2%, against Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Healthcare & social assistance, construction, and retail trade were the dominant employment sectors among residents. Construction had a particularly high share, at 1.4 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented, with only 8.1% of the workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force grew by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.7 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced a 2.1% employment growth and a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment rate. Statewide, NSW saw a slight contraction in employment of 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, favourable to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga SA2 is higher than average nationally. The median assessed income is $47,124 and the average income stands at $70,985. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $53,066 (median) and $79,936 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals that household, family and personal incomes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga fall between the 22nd and 24th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the predominant cohort spans 27.7% of locals (6,929 people) in the $1,500 - $2,999 category, aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents 30.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.0% of income remaining, ranking at the 18th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga as per the latest Census data, 70.0% of dwellings were houses while 30.0% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Sydney metro's 74.2% houses and 25.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in the area stood at 38.9%, with mortgaged properties at 26.7% and rented ones at 34.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,080, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,150. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $400, matching Sydney metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,080 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.0% of all households, including 21.8% couples with children, 27.5% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.0%, with lone person households at 32.6% and group households comprising 3.5%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Educational outcomes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 20.6%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 14.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.0% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.3% and certificates at 28.7%. Educational participation is high, with 26.0% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.4% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga has 220 active public transport stops. These include a mix of ferry and bus services. There are 55 individual routes operating in the area.

Together, these routes provide 1,917 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 147 meters to the nearest stop. The service frequency is 273 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~13,759 people) have private health cover, a rate higher than Greater Sydney's average. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.7% of residents) and mental health issues (9.3%), with 61.2% claiming to be free from medical ailments compared to 64.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 28.7% (7,179 people), than Greater Sydney's 24.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Umina-Booker Bay-Patonga had low cultural diversity with 81.8% Australian-born residents, 88.8% citizens, and 92.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 53.3%, similar to Greater Sydney's 53.4%. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.8%), Australian (27.9%), and Irish (9.6%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) and New Zealand (0.9%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. Maltese ethnicity was also slightly higher at 0.6%.

Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga is 47 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeds the national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 11.2% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney's percentage and significantly higher than the national figure of 6%. Conversely, the 25-34 cohort represents only 8.5%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75-84 age group has increased from 9.3% to 11.2%, while the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 13.8% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Umina - Booker Bay - Patonga's age profile. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 42%, adding 1,164 residents and reaching a total of 3,964. Residents aged 65 and above will drive 78% of population growth. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 0-4 and 35-44 age cohorts.