Caringbah

Population growth drivers in Caringbah are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Caringbah's population was around 14,305 as of May 2026. This reflected an increase of 1,447 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,858. The growth was inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 14,011 in June 2025 and an additional 413 validated new addresses since the Census date. This resulted in a population density ratio of 3,576 persons per square kilometer, placing Caringbah in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's growth rate exceeded that of its SA4 region (5.0%) and SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 55.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year were used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations were applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, Caringbah is projected to increase by 2,118 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 12.8% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Caringbah among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Caringbah has seen approximately 152 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 763 homes. As of FY26395 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 new residents arrive per new home each year between FY21 and FY25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $340,000.

In the current financial year, there have been $41.0 million in commercial approvals, reflecting high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Caringbah exhibits 69.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers greater choice and demonstrating robust developer interest in the area. New building activity comprises 7.0% detached dwellings and 93.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix of 28.0% houses. With around 185 people per dwelling approval, Caringbah is considered a growth area. By 2041, it is projected to grow by 1,824 residents, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Looking ahead, Caringbah is expected to grow by 1,824 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Caringbah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Caringbah Pavilion, Sutherland to Cronulla Active Transport Link (SCATL), Live Caringbah, and Shop top housing with affordable housing - Willarong Road and President Avenue Caringbah. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

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The labour market in Caringbah demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Caringbah has a well-educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 4.0% in December 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.0%.

As of December 2025, 7,995 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% lower than Greater Sydney's. Workforce participation was 72.0%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 37.9% of residents worked from home. Key industries of employment are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Construction is particularly specialized in Caringbah, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 8.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 1.0, indicating substantial local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.0% while labour force increased by 0.9%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced higher growth rates of 2.2% and 2.3% respectively. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caringbah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Caringbah SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $67,364 and an average income of $97,205 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This places it in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $74,316 (median) and $107,237 (average), based on a 10.32% growth in wages since the financial year 2023. Census data shows individual earnings at the 80th percentile nationally were $1,020 weekly. In Caringbah SA2, 31.2% of the population (4,463 individuals) had incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, consistent with surrounding regions where 30.9% fell into the same category. High housing costs consumed 20.3% of income in Caringbah SA2, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 53rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Caringbah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Caringbah, as per the latest Census, 28.3% of dwellings were houses while 71.6% were other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This differs from Sydney metropolitan area's figures which stood at 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caringbah was recorded at 26.8%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 34.7% and rented ones making up 38.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,544, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure in Caringbah was $470, matching Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Caringbah's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caringbah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.6% of all households, including 27.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.4%, with lone person households at 33.0% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Caringbah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Caringbah trails Greater Sydney in university degree holders among residents aged 15 and above, with 28.5% compared to 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.3% of residents in this age group, with advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 25.6%. Educational participation is high, with 28.1% currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.4% in primary, 6.4% in secondary, and 4.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caringbah has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 40 individual routes, collectively facilitating 4,245 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically residing 125 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, most commutes are outward-bound: cars remain dominant at 82%, followed by train at 7% and walking at 6%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 37.9% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 606 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Caringbah is notably higher than the national average with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Caringbah shows superior health outcomes, as evaluated by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are present at a typical level across both young and older age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high, at approximately 70% (9,970 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%.

Nationally, the average is 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis were the most prevalent conditions, affecting 7.5% and 7.3% of residents respectively. 72.4% reported no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. The area has 16.2% (2,314 people) aged 65 and over, with senior health outcomes above average, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Caringbah was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Caringbah's cultural diversity was found to be above average, with 22.4% of its population born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the main religion in Caringbah, comprising 57.5%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (26.9%), Australian (25.4%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Russian (0.9%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%. Serbian representation was similar at 0.5%, while Greek was slightly higher at 2.3% compared to the regional average of 1.9%.

Caringbah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Caringbah's median age is 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and closely aligning with Australia's median age of 38. The 0-4 age group comprises 6.6%, higher than Greater Sydney's proportion. Conversely, the 15-24 cohort makes up 10.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.1% to 6.1%. During this period, the 65-74 cohort decreased from 8.5% to 7.8%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Caringbah's age structure. Notably, the 55-64 group is projected to grow by 30%, adding 486 people and reaching a total of 2,109 from its current figure of 1,622. Meanwhile, both the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are expected to decrease in number.