Caringbah

Population growth drivers in Caringbah are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Caringbah's population is around 13,859 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,001 people (7.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,858 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,761 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 303 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,464 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Caringbah's 7.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.0%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 52.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, an above-median population growth of statistical areas analyzed by AreaSearch is projected, with the area expected to increase by 2,382 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 16.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Caringbah among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Caringbah has seen around 152 new homes approved each year, totalling 763 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26340 approvals have been recorded. At an average of 1.4 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $340,000. There have also been $41.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Caringbah shows 71.0% higher building activity (per person), offering buyers greater choice. This level is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area. New building activity consists of 7.0% detached dwellings and 93.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 28.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 185 people per dwelling approval, Caringbah shows characteristics of a growth area.

Looking ahead, Caringbah is expected to grow by 2,284 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Caringbah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 18 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Caringbah Pavilion, Sutherland to Cronulla Active Transport Link (SCATL), and Live Caringbah, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Caringbah demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Caringbah possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 4.0%, and 1.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,995 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 0.1% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 37.9% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. The area has particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level. On the other hand, professional & technical is under-represented, with only 8.1% of Caringbah's workforce compared to 11.5% in Greater Sydney. The ratio of 1.0 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates substantial local employment opportunities.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.0% while labour force increased by 0.9%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Caringbah. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Caringbah's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The Caringbah SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $67,364 and an average of $97,205 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is among the top percentile nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $73,332 (median) and $105,817 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals individual earnings stand out at the 80th percentile nationally ($1,020 weekly). Distribution data shows 31.2% of the population (4,324 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 20.3% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 53rd percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Caringbah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Caringbah, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 28.3% houses and 71.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Caringbah was slightly lagging that of Sydney metro, at 26.8%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (34.7%) or rented (38.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Sydney metro average at $2,544, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $470, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Caringbah's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caringbah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 63.6% of all households, comprising 27.9% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.4%, with lone person households at 33.0% and group households comprising 3.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Caringbah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Caringbah trail regional benchmarks, with 28.5% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (25.6%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 6.4% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 100 active transport stops operating within Caringbah, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 40 individual routes, collectively providing 4,245 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 125 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 82%, with 7% by train and 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. A high 37.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 606 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Caringbah is notably higher than the national average with a fairly standard level of common health conditions seen across both young and old age cohorts

Caringbah demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a standard level of common health conditions across both young and old age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (9,659 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 7.5% and 7.3% of residents, respectively, while 72.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,288 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Caringbah was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Caringbah was found to be above average in terms of cultural diversity, with 22.4% of its population born overseas and 15.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Caringbah is Christianity, which makes up 57.5% of the population. This compares to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Caringbah are English, comprising 26.9% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 25.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 8.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Russian is notably overrepresented at 0.9% of Caringbah (vs 0.4% regionally), Serbian at 0.5% (vs 0.5%) and Greek at 2.3% (vs 1.9%).

Caringbah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

With a median age of 37, Caringbah is equal to the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and remains comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 45 - 54 age group shows strong representation at 13.2% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 15 - 24 cohort is less prevalent at 9.9%. Since 2021, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.1% to 6.1% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.4% to 10.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Caringbah's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 55 to 64 group will grow by 34% (533 people), reaching 2,094 from 1,560. Meanwhile, both the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 age groups will see reduced numbers.