Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's population is 25,592 as of November 2025. This shows an increase of 1,218 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 24,374. The growth is inferred from ABS estimates: 25,379 in June 2024 and 344 new addresses validated since the Census date. The population density is 1,020 persons per square kilometer. Growth of 5.0% since the 2021 Census exceeds the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.1%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest ERP population numbers, lower quartile growth is anticipated for statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch. The area is expected to grow by 1,177 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 3.8% over 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has recorded approximately 144 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 724 homes were approved, with an additional 32 approved so far in FY26. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five years was approximately 0.9.

This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and enabling population growth. The average expected construction cost value of new properties during this period was around $1,339,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. Commercial development has also been strong in the area, with approximately $86.3 million in commercial approvals recorded so far this financial year. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 76th percentile of areas assessed nationally. The new development consists mainly of attached dwellings (83.0%), with standalone homes making up the remaining 17.0%.

This shift towards denser development offers accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. At around 167 people per approval, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain approximately 964 residents by 2041. Given current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 48 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are VUE Cronulla, Palm Cronulla, Isla Cronulla, and 3 Ewos Parade Cronulla. The following details projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.7%.

As of June 2025, there are 15,266 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and a workforce participation rate of 64.8%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, but lower representation in retail trade at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 9.3%. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, causing a rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points.

In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $64,573 and an average level standing at $97,624. This places it in the top percentile nationally, compared to levels of $56,994 and $80,856 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $72,716 for median income and $109,934 for average income as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena rank highly nationally, between the 72nd and 87th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 32.8% of the population (8,394 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, mirroring the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 32.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, however strong earnings still place disposable income at the 71st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena, as per the most recent Census evaluation, 36.7% of dwellings were houses, with 63.3% being other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas which had 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 28.7% and rented ones making up 36.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, lower than Sydney's average of $2,774. Weekly rent figures were recorded at $500, matching Sydney's average. Nationally, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.8% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 4.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena trail regional benchmarks, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney as of the latest data available (2020). Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.2% and graduate diplomas at 3.0%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 13.5% and certificates at 24.9%. Educational participation is high, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data available (2021).

This includes 7.4% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that there are 136 active transport stops operating within Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena. These stops offer a mix of ferry, train, and bus services. The area is serviced by 25 individual routes which collectively provide 4,247 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as excellent with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 606 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena demonstrates above-average health outcomes with both young and old age cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 70% of the total population (17,863 people), compared to 65.7% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.0 and 6.4% of residents respectively, while 72.4% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 72.3% across Greater Sydney.

The area has 23.5% of residents aged 65 and over (6,006 people), which is higher than the 21.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena had 82.2% of its population born in Australia, with 89.9% being citizens and 91.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 56.5%, compared to 61.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (29.9%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.9%).

Notably, French (0.7%) and Maltese (0.8%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively, while Russian was underrepresented at 0.4% versus 0.6%.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 13.4% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 12.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 7.4%, and the 65 to 74 cohort has increased from 11.7% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 15.2% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 67%, reaching 3,160 people from 1,896. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.