Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's population is around 25,558 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,184 people (4.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,374 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 25,379 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 332 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,018 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's 4.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth of statistical areas analysed by AreaSearch is anticipated, with the area expected to grow by 1,177 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 3.9% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has recorded around 144 residential properties granted approval annually, with 724 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 49 so far in FY-26. Given an average of only 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $725,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. There have also been $86.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against Greater Sydney, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows 15.0% lower construction activity (per person) while it places among the 76th percentile of areas assessed nationally. New development consists of 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% attached dwellings. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 37.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. At around 167 people per approval, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reflects a low density area.

Population forecasts indicate Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena will gain 998 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 48 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include VUE Cronulla, Palm Cronulla, Isla Cronulla, and 3 Ewos Parade Cronulla, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 2.6%, and 1.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 15,415 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.6% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 42.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, retail trade shows lower representation at 7.2% versus the regional average of 9.3%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 1.0% while labour force increased by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $68,276 with the average level standing at $103,796. This is among the top percentile nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $74,325 (median) and $112,992 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena, between the 72nd and 87th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 32.8% of the population (8,383 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, mirroring the metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 32.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 71st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 35.1%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (36.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Sydney metro average at $2,600, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.8% of all households, comprising 24.8% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 4.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena trail regional benchmarks, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (24.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 149 active transport stops operating within Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena, comprising a mix of ferry, train, and buses. These stops are serviced by 27 individual routes, collectively providing 4,694 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 139 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 84%, with 6% by train and 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. A high 42.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 670 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 72% of the total population (18,478 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.0% and 6.4% of residents, respectively, while 72.4% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 24.6% of residents aged 65 and over (6,297 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.2% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.0% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is Christianity, which makes up 56.5% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena are English, comprising 29.9% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%), Australian, comprising 25.0% of the population (substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%), and Irish, comprising 10.9% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: French is overrepresented at 0.7% in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena (vs 0.5% regionally), Maltese at 0.8% (vs 1.0%), and Russian at 0.4% (vs 0.4%).

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is significantly above Greater Sydney's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 13.8% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 35 - 44 cohort is less prevalent at 11.8%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 8.0% of the population, while the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 11.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 15.2% to 13.6% and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 13.1% to 12.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena. Leading the demographic shift, the 75 to 84 group will grow by 54% (1,112 people), reaching 3,160 from 2,047. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45 to 54 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.