Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Aug 2025, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's population is around 25,579. This reflects a growth of 1,205 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,374. The increase was inferred from ABS' estimated resident population of 25,379 in June 2024 and an additional 338 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,019 persons per square kilometer. Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's growth rate of 4.9% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's 4.0%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopted ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections were used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 1,177 persons to 2041, recording a total gain of 3.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has recorded approximately 144 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, with 724 homes approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25. As of FY-26, 21 dwellings have been approved so far. On average, 0.9 new residents per year per dwelling constructed were recorded between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand.

This provides greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections. The average construction value of new dwellings is $1,339,000, suggesting a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In terms of commercial development approvals, $86.3 million has been recorded in FY-26, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has 15.0% less new development per person but ranks among the 76th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 37.0% houses).

This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The location has approximately 167 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Looking ahead to 2041, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena is expected to grow by 977 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 51 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include VUE Cronulla, Cronulla High School upgrade, Palm Cronulla, and Solstice Cronulla. The following details projects most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of June 2025, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. In June 2025, 15,266 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 64.8%, similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Major employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction employment is notably high at 1.6 times the regional average, while retail trade shows lower representation at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 9.3%.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, labour force by 3.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.6%, labour force expanded by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.5%, with employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena had a median taxpayer income of $64,573 and an average income of $97,624. These figures place the area in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena are approximately $71,418 (median) and $107,972 (average) as of March 2025. The 2021 Census places household, family, and personal incomes in the area between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 32.8% of individuals in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, mirroring the national figure of 30.9%. The district's high income is reflected in its considerable affluence, with 32.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, as per the latest Census evaluation, 36.7% of dwellings were houses while 63.3% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's dwelling composition of 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.7% and rented ones at 36.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600, lower than Sydney metro's average of $2,774. Weekly rent median figure was recorded as $500, identical to Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,600 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 at $500.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.8% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 4.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena trail Greater Sydney's regional benchmarks, with 32.8% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (24.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 7.4% in primary, 6.6% in secondary, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of 8 schools operates within Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, educating approximately 3,034 students as of the latest available data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA index of 1071. The educational mix includes 6 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 136 active transport stops operating within Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena. These include ferry, train, and bus services. There are 25 individual routes in total, providing 4,247 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 606 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 31 weekly trips per stop on average.

The level of general health in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly residents, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high here, at approximately 70% (17,854 people), compared to 65.7% across Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.4%), while 72.4% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 72.3%.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.5% (6,003 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 21.1%. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, surveyed in 2016, had a population with 82.2% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 56.5%. Across Greater Sydney in 2016, Christianity made up 61.2%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (29.9%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.9%). Notably, French representation was higher at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.6%, Maltese at 0.8% vs 0.9%, and Greek at 1.7% vs 3.2%.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group has a strong representation at 13.4%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 age group is less prevalent at 12.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 7.4% of the population, and the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 11.7% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 15.2% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena. Leading this shift, the 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 67%, reaching 3,160 people from 1,895. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.