Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Aug 2025, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's population is around 25,579, reflecting a growth of 1,205 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 4.9% rise from the previously recorded population of 24,374. The change is inferred from ABS estimates; as of June 2024, the estimated resident population was 25,379, with an additional 338 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,019 persons per square kilometer, which aligns with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate exceeded the SA4 region average of 4.0%, indicating it as a growth leader. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to grow by 1,177 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 3.8% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has recorded approximately 167 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with 839 homes approved over the past five financial years between FY-20 and FY-25. As of 21st May 2026, 21 dwellings have been approved this financial year, FY-26. Over these five years, an average of 0.9 new residents per dwelling constructed has been recorded, suggesting that supply is meeting or surpassing demand and providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings in the area over this period was $1,339,000, indicating a focus on premium properties by developers. In FY-26 alone, $86.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has 17.0% less new development per person but places among the 76th percentile of areas assessed nationally. Recent construction comprises 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently 37.0% houses. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

The location has approximately 167 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Looking ahead to the year 2041, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena is expected to grow by 977 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 51 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include VUE Cronulla, Cronulla High School Upgrade, Palm Cronulla, and Solstice Cronulla. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has a well-educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. As of June 2025, 15,266 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate and workforce participation at 64.8%. Key employment sectors include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction has notably high representation, at 1.6 times the regional average, while retail trade is lower at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 9.3%.

Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. In NSW as of Sep-25, employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, which had national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena had a median income among taxpayers of $64,573 and an average level of $97,624. Nationally, this places it in the top percentile. In Greater Sydney, these figures compare to $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena would be approximately $71,418 (median) and $107,972 (average) as of March 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena rank highly nationally, between the 73rd and 87th percentiles. Income analysis shows that 32.8% of individuals (8,389) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, mirroring the regional average of 30.9%. The district exhibits significant affluence with 32.0% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, as per the latest Census conducted on 29 August 2016, consisted of 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is in comparison to Sydney metropolitan area's structure which was 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena stood at 35.1%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (36.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,600 as of 2016, below Sydney metropolitan average of $2,774. The median weekly rent figure for Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena was recorded at $500, identical to Sydney metropolitan's figure. Nationally, mortgage repayments in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375 as per 2016 data.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 4.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena trail Greater Sydney's regional benchmarks. As of 2021, 32.8% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them - advanced diplomas at 13.5% and certificates at 24.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2020 census. This includes 7.4% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. As of 2021, a robust network of eight schools operates within Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, educating approximately 3,034 students. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA value of 1071. The educational mix includes six primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena area has 136 active transport stops. These include ferry, train, and bus services. There are 25 individual routes operating in total, providing 4,247 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 140 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 606 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has demonstrated above-average health outcomes for both young and elderly residents. Common health conditions have a low prevalence in this area. The rate of private health cover is approximately 70% of the total population (17,854 people), compared to 65.7% across Greater Sydney and 55.3% nationally.

Arthritis and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 8.0% and 6.4% of residents respectively. A total of 72.4% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.3% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (23.5%, or 6,003 people) than Greater Sydney (21.1%). Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's cultural diversity is below average, with 82.2% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominates the region, comprising 56.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 61.2%. The top three ancestry groups are English (29.9%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.9%).

Notably, French (0.7% vs regional 0.6%), Maltese (0.8% vs 0.9%), and Greek (1.7% vs 3.2%) groups are underrepresented in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group makes up a strong 13.4% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 age group is less prevalent at 12.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.7% to 7.4%, and the 65 to 74 cohort has increased from 11.7% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group has declined from 15.2% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 67%, reaching 3,160 people from 1,895. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.