Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's population was 24,374 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is projected to be around 25,592, an increase of 1,218 people (5%). This growth is inferred from ABS estimates and validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density in June 2024 was 1,020 persons per square kilometer. Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's 5% growth exceeded the SA4 region's 4.1%, making it a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, the area is expected to grow by 1,177 persons to 2041, recording a gain of 3.8% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena recorded approximately 144 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25724 homes were approved, with an additional 32 approved in FY26 so far. The average number of new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these years was 0.9.

New construction has been matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average value of new properties being constructed is $725,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Commercial development has also shown strong momentum this financial year, with $86.3 million in approvals. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person but places among the 76th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New development consists of 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development that provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 37.0% houses. This change indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With approximately 167 people per approval, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena reflects a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that the area will gain 964 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 48 such projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include VUE Cronulla, Cronulla High School Upgrade, Palm Cronulla, and Solstice Cronulla. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has a highly educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 2.8% as of June 2025, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth in the area over the past year was estimated at 2.7%. As of June 2025, 15,266 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% lower than Greater Sydney's. The dominant employment sectors are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction shows particularly strong specialization, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Retail trade, however, has lower representation at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 9.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.7%, while labour force grew by 3.3%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May 2025, project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2022, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena had a median income among taxpayers of $64,573 and an average income of $97,624. This places it in the top percentile nationally, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $72,716 (median) and $109,934 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since June 2022. The 2021 Census places household, family, and personal incomes in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena between the 73rd and 87th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 32.8% of the population (8,394 individuals) earn within the $1,500-$2,999 range, similar to the metropolitan region's 30.9%. Higher earners make up a significant portion at 32.0%, indicating strong purchasing power. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 72nd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, as per the latest Census data, 36.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 63.3% being semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged properties at 28.7% and rented ones at 36.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, below the Sydney metropolitan average of $2,774. Weekly rent in the area was $500, matching the Sydney metro figure but significantly higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's mortgage repayments were considerably higher than the Australian average of $1,863.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 31.0% and group households comprising 4.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena trail Greater Sydney's regional benchmarks. 32.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 38.0%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (24.9%). Educational participation is high, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. There are 8 schools operating within Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena educating approximately 3,034 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1071). The educational mix includes 6 primary, 1 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena area has 136 active public transport stops. These include ferry, train, and bus services. There are 25 individual routes operating in total.

Each week, these routes facilitate 4,247 passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 140 meters. All routes combined run an average of 606 trips daily, which translates to approximately 31 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly residents, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 70% (17,863 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 65.7%. Nationally, it stands at 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.4%). 72.4% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 72.3%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 23.5% (6,006 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 21.1%. Senior health outcomes are notably strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena had a below average cultural diversity, with 82.2% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.0% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion was Christianity, accounting for 56.5%. This figure is slightly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 61.2%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (29.9%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.9%). Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: French was overrepresented at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.6%, Maltese was at 0.8% versus 0.9%, and Greek was at 1.7% compared to 3.2%.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 65-74 age group constitutes 13.4% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 cohort makes up 12.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.7% to 7.4%, and the 65 to 74 cohort has risen from 11.7% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 15.2% to 14.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 67%, reaching 3,160 people from 1,896. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.