Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena

An assessment of population growth drivers in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 25,592. This figure represents an increase of 1,218 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 24,374. This growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 25,379 in June 2024 and the addition of 344 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 1,020 persons per square kilometer. Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's growth rate of 5.0% since the 2021 Census exceeds the SA4 region's growth rate of 4.1%. Overseas migration contributed about 72.9% of overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, the area is projected to grow by 1,177 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall gain of 3.8% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena recorded approximately 144 residential property approvals annually. Between Financial Years 2021 and 2025724 homes were approved, with an additional 36 granted in FY-2026 so far. Over these five years, an average of 0.9 new residents per year was associated with each dwelling constructed.

This suggests that new construction has been matching or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current expectations. The average construction cost value of new properties in the area is $725,000, indicating a focus on premium segment development. Commercial approvals this financial year totalled $86.3 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum. Compared to Greater Sydney, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks among the 76th percentile nationally when assessed by areas. New developments consist of 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development that caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

The current population density in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena is approximately 167 people per approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the area is projected to gain 964 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 48 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include VUE Cronulla, Palm Cronulla, Isla Cronulla, and 3 Ewos Parade Cronulla. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 2.4%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 1.7%. As of September 2025, 15,433 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.7% below Greater Sydney's figure and workforce participation at 64.8%, close to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include construction, healthcare & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction is particularly strong, with a share of employment 1.6 times the regional level, while retail trade has lower representation at 7.2% compared to the regional average of 9.3%.

Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 1.7%, labour force grew by 1.3%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%. Statewide, NSW experienced a slight contraction in employment of 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, lower than the national rate of 4.3%. Job and Skills Australia's forecasts indicate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2022, the Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $64,573 with the average level standing at $97,624. Nationally, this places it in the top percentile. In Greater Sydney, the median and average incomes were $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from June 30, 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $72,716 (median) and $109,934 (average). From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena, between the 72nd and 87th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 32.8% of the population fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, with 8,394 individuals in this bracket. Nationally, 30.9% of metropolitan regions occupy this income bracket. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 32.0% exceeding $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.8% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 71st percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The dwelling structure in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, as per the latest Census, consisted of 36.7% houses and 63.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena stood at 35.1%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.7% and rented ones at 36.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,600, below Sydney metro's average of $2,774. The median weekly rent figure was $500, matching the Sydney metro average. Nationally, Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena features high concentrations of lone person households and group households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 24.8% couples with children, 30.6% couples without children, and 8.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households making up 31.0% and group households comprising 4.2%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena trail regional benchmarks. In this area, 32.8% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.2%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.5%) and certificates (24.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 25.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.4% in primary education, 6.6% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 136 active transport stops within Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena, offering a mix of ferry, train, and bus services. These stops are served by 25 individual routes, facilitating 4,247 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 140 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 606 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 31 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly residents, with low prevalence of common conditions. Approximately 70% of its total population (17,863 people) has private health cover, higher than Greater Sydney's 65.7% and Australia's national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.0%) and asthma (6.4%), while 72.4% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 72.3%.

The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 23.5% (6,006 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 21.1%. Health outcomes among seniors in the area are notably strong, outperforming general population metrics.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena has a cultural diversity score below the average, with 82.2% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 56.5% of the population, compared to 61.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (29.9%), Australian (25.0%), and Irish (10.9%).

Notably, French (0.7%) and Maltese (0.8%) populations are relatively higher than regional averages of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively, while Russian (0.4%) is slightly lower compared to the region's 0.6%.

Cronulla - Kurnell - Bundeena's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 13.4% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 35-44 age group makes up 12.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group grew from 5.7% to 7.4%, and the 65 to 74 cohort increased from 11.7% to 13.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 age group declined from 15.2% to 14.2%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Cronulla-Kurnell-Bundeena. The 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 67%, reaching 3,160 people from 1,896. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 94% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 15 to 24 and 45 to 54 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.