Caringbah

Population growth drivers in Caringbah are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates, the estimated population for the Caringbah statistical area as of November 2025 is around 13,551. This reflects an increase of 976 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,575. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 13,465 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of approximately 3,313 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Caringbah statistical area's growth rate of 7.8% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (3.9%) and the SA3 area, indicating its status as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in June 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the Caringbah statistical area. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 2,312 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 16.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Caringbah among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Caringbah has experienced around 149 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 747 homes. Up to FY26334 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.4 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. The average construction cost of new homes is $486,000, indicating developer focus on premium properties.

This financial year has seen $41.0 million in commercial approvals, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to Greater Sydney, Caringbah shows 71.0% higher construction activity per person. Recent construction comprises 7.0% detached dwellings and 93.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The current housing mix is 28.0% houses. Caringbah has approximately 60 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Population forecasts estimate Caringbah will gain 2,220 residents by 2041, with new housing supply meeting demand at current development rates.

Population forecasts indicate Caringbah will gain 2,220 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Caringbah has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 18 projects that could impact this area. Notable ones include Caringbah Pavilion, Sutherland to Cronulla Active Transport Link (SCATL), Liveable Caringbah, and Liveable Cronulla. The following list details those most relevant.

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The labour market in Caringbah demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Caringbah has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, lower than the national average, and it experienced an estimated employment growth of 1.8% in the past year.

As of September 2025, there are 7,857 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate is higher than average at 66.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, the area has a high concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 8.1% of residents employed compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 1.1, indicating that Caringbah functions as an employment hub hosting more jobs than residents and attracting workers from nearby areas. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment in Caringbah increased by 1.8% while the labour force grew by 1.6%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with an increase in unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points. Providing broader context, state-level data from NSW as of 25-Nov shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. For future demand insights, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caringbah's current employment mix indicates local employment could increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for local population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, the suburb of Caringbah had a median income among taxpayers of $63,846 with the average level standing at $94,820. Nationally, these figures are extremely high compared to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $69,503 (median) and $103,221 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, individual earnings stand out at the 81st percentile nationally with a weekly income of $1,032. In terms of income distribution, 31.1% of locals (4,214 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 20.2% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 53rd percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Caringbah features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Caringbah's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 27.7% houses and 72.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caringbah stood at 26.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 34.5% and rented ones at 38.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, below Sydney metro's average of $2,774. Median weekly rent in Caringbah was $470, compared to Sydney metro's $500. Nationally, Caringbah's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caringbah features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.2% of all households, including 27.7% couples with children, 23.0% couples without children, and 11.7% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.8%, with lone person households at 33.3% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Caringbah shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Caringbah's residents aged 15+ have 28.7% university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 38.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.8% and certificates at 25.6%. Educational participation is high, with 27.7% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.3% in primary, 6.3% in secondary, and 4.9% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 6.3% in secondary education, and 4.9% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Caringbah has 101 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 40 different routes that collectively facilitate 4,245 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 125 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 606 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Caringbah is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Caringbah shows superior health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions across all age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 64%, covering 8,714 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 68% and Australia's national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues affect 7.4% and arthritis impacts 7.2% of residents.

A total of 72.7% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 72.3%. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 15.9%, or 2,154 people, compared to Greater Sydney's 21.1%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Caringbah was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Caringbah's cultural diversity is above average, with 22.4% of its population born overseas and 15.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Caringbah, accounting for 57.5%, compared to 61.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups are English (27.0%), Australian (25.3%), and Irish (8.9%).

Notably, Russian (0.8%) and Serbian (0.5%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Caringbah compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Maltese ethnicity is also notable at 0.9%.

Caringbah's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

Caringbah's median age is 37, matching Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and closely resembling Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 17.3% of Caringbah's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage. Conversely, the 15-24 age group makes up 9.9%, lower than Greater Sydney's figure. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 4.9% to 5.8%. Meanwhile, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 8.5% to 7.9%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Caringbah's age structure. The 55 to 64 group is expected to grow by 37%, adding 553 people and reaching a total of 2,044 from the current 1,490. Both the 35 to 44 and 0 to 4 age groups are projected to decrease in number.