Caringbah South

Caringbah South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Caringbah South's population is around 13,569 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 554 people (4.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,015 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 13,506 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 190 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 3,333 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Caringbah South's 4.3% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (4.0%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 52.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and interstate migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilizing the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,062 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 7.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Caringbah South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Caringbah South has experienced around 116 dwellings receiving development approval per year, totalling 581 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 61 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 1.1 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), the market shows a good balance between supply and demand, supporting stable conditions, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $434,000—somewhat higher than regional norms—reflecting quality-focused development.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Caringbah South has slightly more development (29.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. New building activity shows 22.0% detached houses and 78.0% medium and high-density housing. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing (currently 76.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. With around 131 people per dwelling approval, Caringbah South shows characteristics of a low density area.

Looking ahead, Caringbah South is expected to grow by 999 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Caringbah South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 14 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Caringbah Pavilion, Live Caringbah, shop-top housing with affordable housing on Willarong Road and President Avenue Caringbah, and the Caringbah Marketplace Redevelopment, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The exceptional employment performance in Caringbah South places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Caringbah South possesses a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of just 1.5%, and 0.5% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,426 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 2.6% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 45.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical. The area shows particularly strong specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.5% versus the regional average of 14.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.5% and labour force increased by 0.7%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Caringbah South. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Caringbah South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Caringbah South SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $65,514 with the average level standing at $94,747. This is extremely high nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $71,319 (median) and $103,142 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Caringbah South, between the 82nd and 94th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the $4000+ bracket dominates with 33.0% of residents (4,477 people), differing from patterns across regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. Economic strength emerges through 46.2% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.9% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 94th percentile for disposable income and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Caringbah South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Caringbah South, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.5% houses and 23.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Caringbah South was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 47.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (40.6%) or rented (11.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $3,400, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $730, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Caringbah South's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caringbah South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 82.0% of all households, comprising 45.7% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 17.0% and group households comprising 1.0% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Caringbah South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Caringbah South trail regional benchmarks, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (13.7%) and certificates (23.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents aged 15+ currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 4.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 70 active transport stops operating within Caringbah South, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 15 individual routes, collectively providing 766 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 45.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 109 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caringbah South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data demonstrates outstanding results across Caringbah South, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. There is a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups, and the rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 69% of the total population (9,321 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 8.1% and 6.3% of residents, respectively, while 73.3% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents are notably healthy with low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 22.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,982 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Caringbah South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Caringbah South is below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 84.8% of its population born in Australia, 93.6% being citizens, and 91.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Caringbah South is Christianity, which makes up 65.6% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Caringbah South are English, comprising 29.6% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 19.0%, Australian, comprising 27.2% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 17.8%, and Irish, comprising 9.6% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of other ethnic groups: Croatian is overrepresented at 1.0% in Caringbah South (vs 0.7% regionally), Maltese at 1.1% (vs 1.0%), and Greek at 2.7% (vs 1.9%).

Caringbah South's median age exceeds the national pattern

The 42-year median age in Caringbah South is significantly above Greater Sydney's average of 37 and similarly considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The 65 - 74 age group shows strong representation at 11.0% compared to Greater Sydney, whereas the 25 - 34 cohort is less prevalent at 7.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.9% to 7.3% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has declined from 8.7% to 7.2% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 13.0% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Caringbah South. Leading the demographic shift, the 85+ group will grow by 112% (559 people), reaching 1,057 from 497. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 75% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 0 to 4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.