Caringbah South

Caringbah South has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the suburb of Caringbah South as of May 2026 is around 14,065. This reflects an increase of 897 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 13,168. The change is inferred from the resident population of 13,975 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 192 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,438 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth of 6.8% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region's growth of 5.0%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 52.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a growth of 1,031 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 6.7% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Caringbah South among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Caringbah South experienced around 116 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 583 homes. As of FY-26, 83 approvals have been recorded. The average population growth for each dwelling built in the area has been approximately 1.1 people per year between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $654,000, reflecting a developer focus on the premium segment.

In this financial year, $3.4 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature. Comparatively, Caringbah South has slightly more development than Greater Sydney, with 28.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This balance supports buyer choice while maintaining current property values. New building activity shows 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% townhouses or apartments, shifting from the area's existing housing composition of 77.0% houses. This trend reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles that require more diverse and affordable housing options.

Caringbah South currently reflects a developing area with around 132 people per approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is expected to grow by 941 residents through to 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Caringbah South has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Caringbah Pavilion, St Aloysius College Cronulla Expansion, Shop top housing with affordable housing at Willarong Road and President Avenue Caringbah, and Caringbah Marketplace Redevelopment. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Caringbah South rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Caringbah South has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 1.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.5%. As of December 2025, there were 7,514 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's at 68.8%. According to Census responses, 45.6% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment is concentrated in construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical sectors. The area has a particular specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.5% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 0.5%, labour force increased by 0.7%, resulting in an unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Caringbah South's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and not accounting for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Caringbah South had an extremely high national income level according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year ending June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Caringbah South was $61,138, with an average income of $91,055. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the financial year ending June 2023, current estimates for Caringbah South would be approximately $67,447 (median) and $100,452 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Caringbah South all rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 94th percentiles. Income distribution reveals that 33.1% of the population (4,655 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from regional patterns where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners (46.2% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Caringbah South. Housing accounts for 14.9% of income, and residents rank within the 94th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Caringbah South is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Caringbah South's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 76.7% houses and 23.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Caringbah South was at 47.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.8% and rented ones at 11.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,380, surpassing Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $730, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Caringbah South's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Caringbah South features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.0% of all households, including 45.8% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.9% and group households comprising 1.1%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Caringbah South shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Caringbah South, 30.9% of residents aged 15 and over hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. The most common qualifications are bachelor degrees (21.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.6%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 36.7% of residents aged 15 and over holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (23.1%). Educational participation is high, with 29.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.2%), secondary education (8.8%), and tertiary education (4.5%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 69 active transport stops operating within Caringbah South, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 14 individual routes, collectively facilitating 761 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

A significant 45.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; this may reflect COVID-19 conditions). Service frequency averages 108 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 11 weekly trips per individual stop.

Caringbah South's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Caringbah South's health outcomes show excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (8,838 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 8.1 and 6.3% of residents respectively. 73.4% of residents reported being completely free from medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 21.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,066 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Caringbah South ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Caringbah South, as per the Australian Census data from June 2016, had a lower cultural diversity with 84.9% of its population born in Australia and 93.7% being citizens. The majority spoke English only at home, comprising 91.4%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 65.7%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (29.6%), Australian (27.2%), and Irish (9.5%). Notably, Croatian (1.0%) Maltese (1.1%) and Greek (2.6%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages.

Caringbah South's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Caringbah South is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group comprises 10.8% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 age group makes up 7.7%. Post-2021 Census data indicates that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.9% to 7.3%, and the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 12.9% to 11.8%. By 2041, population forecasts show significant demographic changes in Caringbah South. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 113%, reaching 1,106 people from 520. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 76% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 25-34 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.