Kareela

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kareela reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kareela is around 3,667. This figure reflects an increase of 95 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,572. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 3,661 as of June 2025, along with one validated new address since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,291 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Kareela has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.4%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Kareela is expected to grow by 243 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 6.5% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Kareela, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Kareela has experienced around 3 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Approximately 18 homes have been approved over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 4 approved so far in FY-26. This averages to about 3.1 new residents per year for every home built during this period.

Supply is substantially lagging demand, which generally means heightened buyer competition leading to pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $548,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $2.5 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature. When measured against Greater Sydney, Kareela shows substantially reduced construction activity (68.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. This activity is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 88.0% houses).

This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The location has approximately 1808 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Population forecasts indicate Kareela will gain 237 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Kareela has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified zero projects expected to impact the area. Key projects include M6 Stage 2, President Private Hospital Redevelopment, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane - Lucas Heights to Engadine, and South Village. Below details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kareela performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kareela has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.5% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 0.8%. As of December 2025, 1,979 residents are employed at a 2.6% lower unemployment rate than Greater Sydney's 4.2%, and workforce participation is equal to Greater Sydney's 68.8%.

According to Census data, 48.0% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction, with a specialization in construction at 1.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance employs only 12.3% of local workers compared to Greater Sydney's 14.1%. Over the year ending December 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, while labour force grew by 0.9%, keeping unemployment stable at 1.5%.

In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% and labour force grow by 2.3%, with a marginal increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kareela's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Kareela has one of the highest income levels in Australia, according to AreaSearch data aggregated from the latest ATO figures for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Kareela is $61,470, with an average income of $83,133. These figures compare to Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the financial year 2023, estimated current incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $67,814 (median) and $91,712 (average). Census data shows that Kareela's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile, with a weekly income of $2,765. In terms of earnings profile, 29.1% of Kareela's population (1,067 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners in Kareela, at 46.0% above $3,000/week, indicates strong economic capacity throughout the suburb. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kareela is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Kareela's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.2% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kareela stood at 47.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 47.9% and rented ones at 4.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Kareela was $695, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kareela's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kareela features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.8% of all households, including 50.9% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.2%, with lone person households at 12.6% and group households comprising 0.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kareela shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Kareela stand at 33.8%, slightly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 21.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% currently enrolled in formal education: 12.0% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 4.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kareela has 24 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 449 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 117 meters from the nearest one. Most residents commute outwards from Kareela, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 87%. Train use accounts for 7% of commutes. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in Kareela, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 48% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 64 trips per day, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kareela's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's assessment shows exceptional health outcomes in Kareela.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are very low across all age groups. Private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population of 2,190 people. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.6 and 6.5% of residents respectively. 73.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. There are 22.9% of residents aged 65 and over (839 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kareela was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kareela's population showed high cultural diversity, with 23.8% born overseas and 19.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kareela, comprising 62.9%, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (25.0%), Australian (23.2%), and Irish (8.6%), all higher than regional averages of 19.0% and 17.8% respectively.

Notably, Russian (0.8%) and Greek (3.8%) populations were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4% and 1.9%.

Kareela's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kareela is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 10.2% of the population in Kareela, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 5.7%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.3% to 13.4%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 8.7% to 10.2%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.5% to 14.6%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Kareela, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 29%, reaching 484 people from 374. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 78% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45-54 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.