Kareela

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kareela reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Kareela is around 3,645 people. This figure reflects a growth of 73 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,572. AreaSearch's estimation of 3,638 residents, based on their analysis of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2024), and validation of one new address since the Census date, supports this increase. This results in a population density ratio of 2,278 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Kareela has exhibited a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Kareela is expected to grow by 272 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 8.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kareela according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data in Kareela, shows around 4 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 20 homes were approved, with an additional 1 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 6.5 new residents per year for every home built during this period.

Supply is substantially lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $548,000. In FY-26, there have been $1.2 million in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kareela shows substantially reduced construction, 65.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. Nationally, this level is likewise lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 88.0% houses).

This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The location has approximately 732 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Kareela adding 304 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Kareela has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, substantial projects, and planning schemes. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include M6 Stage 2, President Private Hospital Redevelopment, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane - Lucas Heights to Engadine, and South Village. The following list outlines those deemed most pertinent.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kareela performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kareela has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 1.6% in June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.4%. As of June 2025, 1,965 residents were employed with a workforce participation rate of 62.4%, similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Construction employs 1.3 times the regional average in Kareela, while health care & social assistance employs 12.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 3.4%, labour force by 3.6%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6% and unemployment increase by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Kareela's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Kareela's median income among taxpayers was $61,470 during financial year 2022. The average income stood at $83,133 in the same period. These figures are higher than those for Greater Sydney, which had a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $69,221 and the average income would be around $93,616 as of September 2025. According to census data, Kareela's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,765. In terms of earnings profile, 29.1% of Kareela's population (1,060 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, contrasting with the regional leading bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 at 30.9%. The significant proportion of high earners, with 46.0% earning above $3,000 per week, indicates strong economic capacity in Kareela. After accounting for housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, reflecting robust purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kareela is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Kareela, as per the latest Census evaluation, 88.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 11.7% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 70.4% of dwellings are houses. Home ownership in Kareela stood at 47.6%, with mortgaged properties making up 47.9% and rented dwellings accounting for 4.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, surpassing Sydney's average of $2,600. Meanwhile, median weekly rent in Kareela was recorded at $695, compared to Sydney's average of $483. Nationally, Kareela's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kareela features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.8% of all households, including 50.9% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 13.2%, with lone person households at 12.6% and group households at 0.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Kareela shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Kareela stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 22.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 34.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (21.0%).

Educational participation is high at 30.7%, including 12.0% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. Kareela's three schools have a combined enrollment of 354 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1054). The educational mix includes two primary schools and one K-12 school. School places per 100 residents (9.7) are below the regional average (17.8), with some students likely attending schools in adjacent areas. Note that where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 23 active stops operating in Kareela, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 7 individual routes, offering a total of 419 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 117 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 59 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per stop.

Kareela's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Kareela with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (2,177 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.6% and 6.5% of residents respectively. A total of 73.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% across Greater Sydney. As of the latest data (2021), Kareela has 22.4% of residents aged 65 and over (816 people), which is higher than the 18.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

Kareela was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Kareela has a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 23.8% of its population born overseas and 19.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Kareela, accounting for 62.9% of the population, slightly higher than the 61.9% figure across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Kareela are English (25.0%), Australian (23.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Russian (0.8%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.5%, as are Greek (3.8% vs 2.2%) and Spanish (0.7% vs 0.4%) populations in Kareela.

Kareela hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Kareela is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 9.9% of the population in Kareela, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 5.6%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15 to 24 age group grew from 11.3% to 12.7%, while the 75 to 84 cohort increased from 8.7% to 9.9%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort decreased from 11.7% to 10.8%. Population forecasts for Kareela in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 38%, reaching 498 people from the current 360, leading the demographic shift. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 79% of total population growth, reflecting Kareela's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45 to 54 and 0 to 4 cohorts are forecasted to experience population declines.