Kareela

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kareela reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Kareela statistical area (Lv2) is around 3,674. This reflects an increase of 102 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,572. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 3,633 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of one new address since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of approximately 2,296 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Kareela has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.7%, outpacing its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed around 63% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Kareela is expected to grow by 273 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 7.5% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kareela according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Between financial years 2021 and 2025, Kareela had approximately 18 dwelling approvals. In the current financial year 2026, one dwelling has been approved so far. On average, around 7.3 new residents per year have been associated with these new homes.

The annual dwelling approval rate in Kareela is roughly three dwellings. Commercial development approvals for this year total $2.5 million. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kareela's construction activity is 68.0% below the regional average per person. New development consists of equal parts detached houses and attached dwellings, a significant shift from the current housing pattern which is 88.0% houses. The location has approximately 1830 people per dwelling approval. By 2041, Kareela's population is forecast to increase by 276 residents. If current construction levels continue, housing supply may lag behind population growth.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $548,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The area's primarily residential nature is evident from its commercial development approvals.

Kareela has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

No local infrastructure changes or major projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely impacting the area. Key projects include M6 Stage 2, President Private Hospital Redevelopment, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane - Lucas Heights to Engadine, and South Village.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Kareela performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Kareela has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.4% in September 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment grew by 1.6% over the past year. Residents' employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance (12.3%), professional & technical services, and construction (employment share of 1.3 times the regional level). However, local employment opportunities appear limited as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over September 2024 to September 2025, employment increased by 1.6% while labour force grew by 1.6%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 2.8%.

In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and unemployment increase slightly to 4.4%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between sectors. Applying these projections to Kareela's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.9% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Kareela has one of the highest income levels in Australia, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Kareela is $61,470, and the average income stands at $83,133. In comparison, Greater Sydney's median income is $60,817, and its average income is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Kareela as of September 2025 would be approximately $66,916 (median) and $90,499 (average). According to census data, household incomes in Kareela rank at the 94th percentile ($2,765 weekly). In terms of earnings profile, 29.1% of the population (1,069 individuals) falls within the $4000+ income range, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners (46.0% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Kareela. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kareela is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Kareela, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 88.2% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kareela was at 47.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (47.9%) or rented (4.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,600. The median weekly rent figure in Kareela was recorded at $695, compared to Sydney metro's $483. Nationally, Kareela's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kareela features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.8% of all households, including 50.9% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.2%, with lone person households at 12.6% and group households comprising 0.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, higher than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Kareela shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Kareela, university qualification levels stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (22.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 21.0%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.7% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Kareela shows that there are currently 24 operational transport stops. All these stops serve bus routes. Seven different routes provide a total of 449 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to transport is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 117 meters away from the nearest stop. On average, there are 64 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kareela's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows Kareela has very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Approximately 60% of its total population (2,194 people) have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.6 and 6.5% of residents respectively. A majority, 73.6%, declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 70.6% across Greater Sydney. Kareela has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.4% (822 people) than Greater Sydney's 18.8%. Health outcomes among seniors in Kareela are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kareela was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kareela's population showed higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 23.8% born overseas and 19.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the dominant religion in Kareela, accounting for 62.9%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 61.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (25.0%), Australian (23.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Russian (0.8% vs regional 0.5%), Greek (3.8% vs 2.2%), and Spanish (0.7% vs 0.4%) ethnicities had higher representations in Kareela compared to the regional averages.

Kareela's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kareela is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.9% of the population in Kareela, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 5.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.3% to 12.7%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 8.7% to 9.9%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has decreased from 11.7% to 10.8%. Population forecasts for Kareela in 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 37%, reaching 498 people from 363, and the combined 65+ age groups will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting Kareela's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45-54 and 0-4 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.