Kareela

An assessment of population growth drivers in Kareela reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Kareela is around 3,674, reflecting a 102 person increase since the 2021 Census. The resident population estimate by AreaSearch in June 2024 was 3,633, with an additional validated new address contributing to this growth. This results in a population density of 2,296 persons per square kilometer, higher than the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Kareela has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.4%. Overseas migration was the primary driver for population growth, contributing approximately 63% of overall gains during recent periods. AreaSearch's projections for Kareela are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For future demographic trends, a population increase just below the median is expected by 2041, with an estimated growth of 265 persons reflecting a total increase of 6.1% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Kareela according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Kareela has experienced around 3 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past 5 financial years ending FY-25. This totals an estimated 18 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 8.2 people moving to the area per dwelling built over this period, supply is substantially lagging demand.

This generally indicates heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $548,000, demonstrating a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. Additionally, $2.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Kareela shows substantially reduced construction activity (68.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established dwellings. Recent construction comprises 50.0% detached dwellings and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from the current housing mix of 88.0% houses. The location has approximately 1831 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

Population forecasts indicate Kareela will gain 224 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Kareela has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No changes can affect a region's performance more than modifications to its local infrastructure, significant projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 0 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include M6 Stage 2, President Private Hospital Redevelopment, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane - Lucas Heights to Engadine, and South Village. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Kareela ranks among the strongest 15% of areas evaluated nationally

Kareela has a highly educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate was 1.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9%. As of December 2025, 1,975 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's at 70.2%. According to Census responses, 48.0% of residents worked from home. The dominant employment sectors were health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and construction. Construction had a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Health care & social assistance had limited presence at 12.3%, compared to the regional average of 14.1%. Local employment opportunities appeared limited as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over the past year, employment increased by 0.9% alongside labour force growth of 1.0%, keeping unemployment relatively stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kareela's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Kareela's median income among taxpayers is $61,470. The average income in the suburb is $83,133. Nationally, these figures are extremely high. In Greater Sydney, the median income is $60,817 and the average is $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $66,916 (median) and $90,499 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in Kareela rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,765. The earnings profile shows that 29.1% of residents earn over $4,000 per week (1,069 people). This contrasts with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 30.9%. Economic strength is evident as 46.0% of households achieve high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. After housing costs, residents retain 86.9% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Kareela is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Kareela, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.2% houses and 11.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kareela was at 47.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (47.9%) or rented (4.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent was $695, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Kareela's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kareela features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.8% of all households, including 50.9% couples with children, 26.9% couples without children, and 8.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.2%, with lone person households at 12.6% and group households comprising 0.7%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Kareela shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Kareela, university qualification levels stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (22.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 13.1% and certificates at 21.0%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.7% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (12.0%), secondary (8.4%), and tertiary (4.8%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kareela has 24 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 449 weekly passenger trips. The area offers excellent transport accessibility, with residents typically residing 117 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, Kareela sees most commuters traveling outward. Cars dominate as the primary mode of transportation at 87%, while train use stands at 7%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, a significant 48% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 64 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Kareela's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Kareela, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. Approximately 60% of the total population (2,194 people) have private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 6.6 and 6.5% of residents respectively. A significant 73.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors, with 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (856 people), compared to the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Kareela was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kareela's population showed high cultural diversity, with 23.8% born overseas and 19.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Kareela, at 62.9%, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.2%. The top three ancestry groups were English (25.0%), Australian (23.2%), and Irish (8.6%).

Notably, Russian (0.8%) and Greek (3.8%) populations were higher than regional averages of 0.4% and 1.9%, respectively. Spanish population was slightly higher at 0.7%.

Kareela's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Kareela is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 75-84 age group constitutes 10.4% of the population in Kareela, compared to a lower prevalence of the 25-34 cohort at 5.6%. According to data from the 2021 Census and post-Census updates, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 11.3% to 13.2%, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 8.7% to 10.4%. Conversely, the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 6.4% to 5.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Kareela. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 28%, reaching 490 people from the current figure of 382. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 78% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 45-54 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.