Oyster Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oyster Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of 1 Nov 2025, the estimated population of Oyster Bay is around 5,990, reflecting a growth of 301 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 5.3% rise from the previous population count of 5,689. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5,986, following their examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in Jun 2024 and validation of 16 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,799 persons per square kilometer, placing Oyster Bay in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (2.6%) and SA4 region, making it a growth leader. Overseas migration contributed around 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, with a base year of 2021. Projected demographic shifts indicate that the suburb is expected to increase by approximately 284 persons by 2041, reflecting an overall increase of about 4.9% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oyster Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Between the financial years 2021 and 2025, Oyster Bay averaged around 16 new dwelling approvals per year, with a total of approximately 80 homes approved during this period. In the current financial year 2026, 2 dwellings have been approved so far. Each dwelling built over these five years has resulted in an average of 2.2 new residents annually, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $548,000. This year, commercial development approvals amount to $8.6 million, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oyster Bay has 14.0% less new development per person. Nationally, it ranks at the 26th percentile of assessed areas, implying somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established properties. This lower development activity reflects market maturity and possible development constraints.

Recent construction in Oyster Bay comprises 60.0% standalone homes and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 80.0% houses. This change suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects evolving lifestyles requiring diverse and affordable housing options. With approximately 627 people per dwelling approval, Oyster Bay demonstrates an established market. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 291 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Oyster Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: M6 Stage 2, Florida Street Affordable Housing, Southgate Shopping Centre Expansion, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Oyster Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Oyster Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong professional services representation. Its unemployment rate was 1.8% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 3.0%.

As of June 2025, 3,294 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is high at 66.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents are professional & technical, construction, and education & training. Notably, construction employs 1.4 times the regional average.

However, health care & social assistance employs only 11.3% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 14.1%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. In the 12 months ending June 2025, employment increased by 3.0%, and labour force grew by 3.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. By contrast, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oyster Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Oyster Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $68,536 with the average level standing at $92,689. These figures are among the highest in Australia compared to Greater Sydney's levels of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% from financial year ended June 2022 to September 2025, estimated median income is approximately $77,178 while average income stands at around $104,377 as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data collected in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes in Oyster Bay rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 97th percentiles. Income distribution shows that the largest segment comprises 37.1% earning $4000+ weekly (2,222 residents), differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.9%. A substantial presence of higher earners is noted with 52.3% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. Housing expenses account for 13.9% of income while residents' disposable income ranks them in the 97th percentile nationally. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Oyster Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Oyster Bay, as per the latest Census, consisted of 80.3% houses and 19.8% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. In contrast, Sydney metropolitan area had 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oyster Bay was at 39.4%, similar to Sydney metro, with the rest being mortgaged (50.8%) or rented (9.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,190, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,600. The median weekly rent figure for Oyster Bay was recorded at $620, compared to Sydney metro's $483. Nationally, Oyster Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oyster Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.5% of all households, including 53.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.5%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Oyster Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates at 35.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA3 area rate of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 8.7% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.8%) and certificates (20.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 33.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 12.0% in primary, 10.4% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education. The area's educational provision includes Oyster Bay Public School and St Joseph's Catholic Primary School Como - Oyster Bay, serving a total of 827 students. These schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. School places per 100 residents stand at 13.8, below the regional average of 17.8, indicating some students may attend schools outside the area.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 35 active stops in Oyster Bay. These are bus stops serviced by 11 routes offering 502 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 133 meters.

Daily service averages 71 trips across all routes, equating to about 14 weekly trips per stop.

Oyster Bay's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Oyster Bay. Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 63% of the total population (3,802 people) has private health cover, compared to 60.0% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.9 and 6.8% of residents respectively. 74.9% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% across Greater Sydney. Oyster Bay has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (994 people), which is lower than the 18.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Oyster Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oyster Bay's population showed low cultural diversity, with 82.3% born in Australia, 94.0% being citizens, and 90.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 60.6%, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 61.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (28.9%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (10.1%).

Welsh (0.8%) and Hungarian (0.4%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, while Russian representation was similar at 0.5%.

Oyster Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

Oyster Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Oyster Bay at 16.4%, while the 25-34 age cohort is under-represented at 6.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 15-24 age group has grown from 12.8% to 14.4% of the population, while the 75-84 age cohort increased from 4.9% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 65-74 age cohort has declined from 9.7% to 8.8%. Demographic projections suggest that by 2041, Oyster Bay's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age cohort is projected to increase dramatically, growing by 169 people (157%) from 107 to 277. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 71% of total population growth, reflecting Oyster Bay's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 15-24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.