Oyster Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oyster Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Oyster Bay is around 6,001, reflecting a growth of 312 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 5.5% change from the previous population count of 5,689. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses, is 5,995. This results in a population density ratio of 2,804 persons per square kilometer, placing Oyster Bay in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth since the 2021 Census exceeded that of both its SA3 area (3.1%) and SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the national median, with the suburb expected to expand by 270 persons to reach 6,270 by 2041, reflecting a 4.4% total increase over the 16-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oyster Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Oyster Bay indicates an average of 15 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, 79 homes were approved, with a further 6 approved so far in FY-26. Over the past five financial years, an average of 1.8 people moved to the area for each dwelling built. However, this figure has intensified to 4.7 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, suggesting growing popularity and potential undersupply.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $548,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year, $7.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oyster Bay shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 40th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. Recent construction comprises 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from the current housing pattern of 80.0% houses. This shift suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 424 people per dwelling approval, Oyster Bay shows a developed market. Looking ahead, Oyster Bay is expected to grow by 264 residents through to 2041, with current development rates suggesting that new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oyster Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. One notable project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include M6 Stage 2, Florida Street Affordable Housing, Southgate Shopping Centre Expansion, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Oyster Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Oyster Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate was 1.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6%. As of December 2025, 3,303 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.4%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was at 71.0%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A significant proportion, 53.1%, of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. The dominant employment sectors were professional & technical, construction, and education & training. Notably, the area had a high specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance showed lower representation at 11.3% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 0.6% while labour force grew by 0.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oyster Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Oyster Bay suburb has extremely high national incomes. The median income is $68,536 while the average income stands at $92,689. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $75,609 (median) and $102,255 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Oyster Bay rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 97th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. Income brackets indicate that 37.1% of locals (2,226 people) fall into the $4000+ category, unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. A significant 52.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income while strong earnings rank residents in the 97th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Oyster Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Oyster Bay, as per the latest Census evaluation, 80.3% of dwellings were houses, with 19.8% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is in contrast to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oyster Bay stood at 39.4%, with mortgaged properties making up 50.8% and rented dwellings comprising 9.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,190, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Oyster Bay was recorded at $620, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Oyster Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oyster Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.5% of all households, including 53.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.5%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Oyster Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 35.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. This rate also exceeds that of the SA3 area at 30.5%, indicating a strong emphasis on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%).

Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.8% and certificates at 20.7%. Educational participation is notably high, with 33.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oyster Bay has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 11 different routes that together facilitate 543 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 133 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car is the dominant mode of transport, used by 89% of residents, while train usage stands at 7%. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.8, higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 53.1%, work from home, which may be due to COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 77 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Oyster Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Oyster Bay, with AreaSearch's assessment indicating low mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, especially among younger cohorts. Approximately 63% of the total population (3,809 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Nationally, this figure stands at 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.9% and 6.8% of residents respectively. A total of 74.9% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Oyster Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.8%, or 1,008 people, than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. While health outcomes among seniors are strong, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Oyster Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oyster Bay, in a diversity assessment conducted, ranked below average with 82.3% of its residents born in Australia, 94.0% being citizens, and 90.3% speaking English exclusively at home. Christianity emerged as the dominant religion, comprising 60.6% of Oyster Bay's population, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 49.2%. In terms of ancestry, the most prevalent groups were English (28.9%, compared to 19.0% regionally), Australian (27.7%, against a regional average of 17.8%), and Irish (10.1%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8% vs 0.4%), Hungarian (0.4% vs 0.3%), and Russian (0.5% vs 0.4%) groups were disproportionately represented compared to the regional averages.

Oyster Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oyster Bay has a median age of 40, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Oyster Bay at 16.5%, while the 25-34 age cohort is under-represented at 6.3%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.8% to 14.8%, and the 75 to 84 age cohort has risen from 4.9% to 6.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age cohort has decreased from 9.7% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Oyster Bay's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, increasing by 171 people (151%) from 114 to 286. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 72% of total population growth. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 45 to 54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.