Oyster Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oyster Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Oyster Bay's population is estimated at around 6,037 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 348 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,689 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,969 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,821 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Oyster Bay's growth rate exceeded that of the SA3 area (2.9%) and the SA4 region since the 2021 Census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate a population increase just below the median of national areas, with an expected expansion of 285 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 4.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oyster Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Oyster Bay averaged around 15 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 79 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved in FY-26 so far. Each dwelling built over the past five financial years has resulted in an average of 2.3 new residents annually, indicating healthy demand that supports property values.

New homes are being constructed at an average value of $548,000, reflecting developers' focus on the premium market with high-end developments. This year, $7.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oyster Bay shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person while ranking among the 40th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice that supports interest in existing homes. Recent construction comprises 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 80.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 411 people per dwelling approval, Oyster Bay shows a developed market.

Looking ahead, AreaSearch quarterly estimates project Oyster Bay's population to grow by 245 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oyster Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the area: M6 Stage 2, Florida Street Affordable Housing, Southgate Shopping Centre Expansion, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Oyster Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Oyster Bay has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. Its unemployment rate is 1.7%, with an estimated employment growth of 1.4% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 3,323 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate is 66.7%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical, construction, and education & training. Construction has a particularly high representation at 1.4 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.3% versus the regional average of 14.1%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.4%, and labour force increased by 1.3%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%, with a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data up to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oyster Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Oyster Bay is $68,536 and average income is $92,689. This compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $74,608 (median) and $100,901 (average), based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Oyster Bay's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 85th and 97th percentiles nationally. Income brackets reveal that 37.1% of locals (2,239 people) earn $4000+, contrasting with the region's trend where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Notably, 52.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income, and residents rank in the 97th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Oyster Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As per the latest Census evaluation, dwelling structures in Oyster Bay comprised 80.3% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oyster Bay stood at 39.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.8% and rented ones at 9.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,190, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,600. The median weekly rent in Oyster Bay was recorded at $620, compared to Sydney metro's $483. Nationally, Oyster Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oyster Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.5% of all households, including 53.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.5%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Oyster Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 35.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA3 area average of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 23.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 12.8% and certificates for 20.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Oyster Bay shows that there are currently 37 operational transport stops. These stops offer a variety of bus services, with a total of 11 different routes running weekly. Together, these routes facilitate 543 passenger trips each week.

The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 133 meters away from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 77 daily trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Oyster Bay's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Oyster Bay, with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (3,832 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and arthritis, impacting 6.9 and 6.8% of residents respectively, while 74.9% declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 70.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 16.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,002 people), which is lower than the 18.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Oyster Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oyster Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.3% of its population born in Australia and 94.0% being citizens. English is spoken at home by 90.3% of the population. Christianity is the main religion, practiced by 60.6% of Oyster Bay's residents, compared to 61.9% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups in Oyster Bay are English (28.9%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (10.1%). Notably, Welsh (0.8%) and Hungarian (0.4%) populations are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

Oyster Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oyster Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38. The age group of 45-54 years is notably over-represented in Oyster Bay at 16.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 6.3%. Between 2021 and present day, the age group of 15 to 24 years has increased from 12.8% to 14.4%, and the 75 to 84 cohort has grown from 4.9% to 6.0%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 9.7% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Oyster Bay's age profile will change significantly. The 85+ age group is projected to increase dramatically by 168 people (155%), from 108 to 277. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above are expected to account for 72% of total population growth, reflecting Oyster Bay's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.