Oyster Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oyster Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Oyster Bay's population is estimated at around 6,038 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 349 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,689 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,969, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,821 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 6.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.1%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, lower quartile growth of statistical areas across the nation is anticipated, with the suburb expected to expand by 299 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 3.8% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oyster Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Oyster Bay averaged around 15 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 79 homes were approved, with a further 4 approved in FY-26 to date. Each dwelling built over the past five financial years resulted in an average of 2.2 new residents.

This indicates healthy demand that supports property values. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $548,000, reflecting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $7.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oyster Bay shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 40th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes.

Recent construction comprises 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 80.0% houses). Oyster Bay shows a developed market with around 426 people per dwelling approval. Looking ahead, AreaSearch estimates that Oyster Bay is expected to grow by 230 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oyster Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely to impact the region: M6 Stage 2, Florida Street Affordable Housing, Southgate Shopping Centre Expansion, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Oyster Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Oyster Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 1.8% as of December 2025. This is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.6%. As of December 2025, 3,319 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A significant portion, 53.1%, of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors include professional & technical services, construction, and education & training.

The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 11.3% compared to the regional average of 14.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 0.6%, while labour force also increased by 0.6%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced higher employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oyster Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Oyster Bay is extremely high nationally. The median assessed income is $68,536 while the average income stands at $92,689. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $74,608 (median) and $100,901 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Oyster Bay rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 97th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that 37.1% of locals (2,240 people) fall into the $4000+ category, unlike regional trends where 30.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. A significant 52.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income and strong earnings rank residents within the 97th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Oyster Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Oyster Bay, as evaluated at the latest Census, consisted of 80.3% houses and 19.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The level of home ownership in Oyster Bay was at 39.4%, with the remainder being mortgaged (50.8%) or rented (9.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,190, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $620. Nationally, Oyster Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oyster Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.5% of all households, including 53.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.5%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Oyster Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 35.9% among residents aged 15+, exceeding the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA3 area rate of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 23.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 8.7% and graduate diplomas at 3.6%. Vocational credentials are held by 33.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.8% and certificates at 20.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 33.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 12.0% in primary, 10.4% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oyster Bay has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 11 different routes that collectively provide 543 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's home to the nearest transport stop is 133 meters. Most residents commute outwards from Oyster Bay. Car remains the dominant mode of transportation, used by 89% of residents, while 7% use the train. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Oyster Bay, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 53.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 77 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 14 weekly trips per individual stop.

Oyster Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Oyster Bay, as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low, especially among younger cohorts. Private health cover was found to be exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (3,832 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were asthma and arthritis, affecting 6.9 and 6.8% of residents respectively. 74.9% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The area has 17.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,032 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong but ranked lower nationally than the broader population.

Oyster Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oyster Bay had below average cultural diversity, with 82.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.0% being citizens, and 90.3% speaking English only at home as of 2016 census data. Christianity was the main religion in Oyster Bay, comprising 60.6% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney during the same period. The top three ancestry groups were English (28.9%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (10.1%).

Notably, Welsh (0.8%) was overrepresented in Oyster Bay compared to regional average of 0.4%. Hungarian (0.4%) and Russian (0.5%) also had higher representation than the regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

Oyster Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oyster Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney's average, the 45-54 age cohort is notably over-represented in Oyster Bay at 16.5%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 6.2%. Between 2021 and present, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.8% to 14.7% of the population, while the 75 to 84 cohort has risen from 4.9% to 6.4%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group has decreased from 9.7% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Oyster Bay's age profile. The 85+ age cohort is projected to surge dramatically, increasing by 170 people (148%) from 114 to 285. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 72% of total population growth, reflecting Oyster Bay's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 0 to 4 and 45 to 54 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.