Oyster Bay

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oyster Bay reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the population of the suburb of Oyster Bay was estimated at around 6,038 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 349 people (6.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,689 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,969 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 16 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,821 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 6.1% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (3.1%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest a growth just below the median of national areas, with an expected increase of 302 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 4.3% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oyster Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Oyster Bay averaged approximately 15 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 79 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 to date. Each dwelling built resulted in an average of 2.3 new residents over the past five financial years.

The average construction value of new homes was $548,000, indicating a focus on premium developments. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $7.3 million. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oyster Bay had 15.0% lower construction activity per person and ranked in the 40th percentile nationally, suggesting relatively limited buyer choices. Recent construction comprised 57.0% detached houses and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 80.0% house dominance. Oyster Bay had around 411 people per dwelling approval, indicating a developed market.

By 2041, it is projected to grow by approximately 258 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should meet demand comfortably, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Oyster Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one project likely affecting this region: M6 Stage 2, Florida Street Affordable Housing, Southgate Shopping Centre Expansion, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade are key projects, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Oyster Bay rank among the top 10% of areas assessed nationally

Oyster Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 1.7%, lower than the national average. Over the past year, estimated employment growth was 1.3%.

As of September 2025, 3,320 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation is standard at 72.0%, similar to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Notably, 53.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Dominant employment sectors include professional & technical services, construction, and education & training.

The area specializes in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, health care & social assistance has lower representation at 11.3% versus the regional average of 14.1%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, indicated by the ratio of working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 1.3%, labour force grew by 1.2%, and unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced higher employment growth (2.1%) and labour force growth (2.4%), with a slight rise in unemployment. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oyster Bay's current employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2023 shows median income in Oyster Bay suburb is $68,536 and average income is $92,689. This compares to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Projecting forward using Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $74,608 (median) and $100,901 (average). 2021 Census figures rank Oyster Bay's household, family, and personal incomes highly nationally, between the 85th and 97th percentiles. Income brackets show 37.1% of locals earn over $4000 weekly, compared to 30.9% in the region earning $1500-$2999. Notably, 52.3% earn above $3000 weekly. Housing accounts for 13.9% of income, with residents ranking high at the 97th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Oyster Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Oyster Bay, as per the latest Census data, 80.3% of dwellings were houses while 19.8% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments, contrasting with Sydney's metropolitan area where 55.9% were houses and 44.1% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Oyster Bay stood at 39.4%, with mortgaged properties making up 50.8% and rented ones comprising 9.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,190, surpassing Sydney's metro average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent figure for Oyster Bay was $620, higher than Sydney's metro average of $470. Nationally, Oyster Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oyster Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.5% of all households, including 53.5% couples with children, 24.1% couples without children, and 8.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up 13.5%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Oyster Bay demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 35.9% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4%. This rate also exceeds that of the SA3 area at 30.5%, indicating a strong emphasis on higher education in the community. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 23.6% of residents holding them, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.7%) and graduate diplomas (3.6%).

Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 33.5% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.8% and certificates at 20.7%. Educational participation is high, with 33.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 12.0% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows 37 active public transport stops in Oyster Bay. These are served by 11 different bus routes, offering a total of 543 weekly passenger trips. The average distance to the nearest stop for residents is 133 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most commuters travel outward from this residential area. Car remains the primary mode of transport at 89%, with train use at 7%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling, higher than the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 53.1% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 77 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 14 weekly trips per stop.

Oyster Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

AreaSearch's assessment shows exceptional health outcomes across Oyster Bay. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are low, especially among younger cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 63%, compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and 55.7% nationally.

The most prevalent conditions are asthma (6.9%) and arthritis (6.8%), with 74.9% of residents reporting no medical ailments, similar to the 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Oyster Bay has 16.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,020 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are strong but rank lower nationally compared to the broader population.

Oyster Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oyster Bay's cultural diversity was found to be below average. Its population was predominantly born in Australia, with 82.3% holding Australian citizenship and 90.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 60.6% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney.

The top three ancestry groups were English (28.9%, regional average: 19.0%), Australian (27.7%, regional average: 17.8%) and Irish (10.1%). Notable divergences included Welsh at 0.8% in Oyster Bay versus 0.4% regionally, Hungarian at 0.4% versus 0.3%, and Russian at 0.5% versus 0.4%.

Oyster Bay's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Oyster Bay has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years. This is also marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing the age distribution with Greater Sydney, Oyster Bay has an over-representation of the 45-54 cohort (16.4%) and an under-representation of the 25-34 cohort (6.1%). From 2021 to present, the population aged 15-24 grew from 12.8% to 14.7%, while those aged 75-84 increased from 4.9% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort decreased from 9.7% to 8.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant changes in Oyster Bay's age profile. The number of people aged 85 and above is expected to surge by 167 (a 146% increase), reaching 282 from the current figure of 114. Notably, the combined population growth for those aged 65 and above will account for 72%, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.