Mortdale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mortdale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

By June 2024, ABS estimated Mortdale's population at 11,264 based on latest ERP data. This was 532 more than the 2021 Census figure of 10,745, a 5% increase. AreaSearch validated an additional 105 new addresses since the Census date, contributing to this growth. Mortdale's population density reached 3,848 persons per square kilometer by Nov 2025, placing it in the top 10% nationally. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 83% of recent population gains. AreaSearch projects Mortdale's population to increase by 7.5%, or 1,054 persons, to reach 14,299 by 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, a population increase just below the median of national statistical areas is expected, with the area expected to grow by 1,054 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting with an increase of 7.5% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mortdale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Mortdale has received around 42 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 211 homes. In FY26 so far, 17 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline has likely been balanced by new supply meeting demand, offering good choice to buyers. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $647,000, which is somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development.

This financial year, $5.4 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Relative to Greater Sydney, Mortdale maintains similar construction rates per person, indicating market balance consistent with the broader area. New building activity comprises 51.0% detached houses and 49.0% attached dwellings, offering choices across price ranges from spacious family homes to compact options.

The location has approximately 222 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mortdale is forecasted to gain 843 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Mortdale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 24 projects that could impact the area significantly due to changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Among these key projects are Mortdale RSL Redevelopment, Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan, 70-76 Pitt Street Mortdale, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Mortdale significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Mortdale has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 2.3%. There are 7,291 residents in work, with a workforce participation rate of 63.8%, close to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training.

However, construction is under-represented at 6.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, labour force grew by 2.6%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force increase by 2.9%, with a similar unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mortdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.1% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch reports that Mortdale had a median taxpayer income of $56,298 and an average income of $79,672 in financial year 2022. This is among the highest in Australia, with Greater Sydney having levels of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $63,397 and an average income of $89,719 based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022. Census data indicates that incomes in Mortdale cluster around the 66th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that 32.8% of Mortdale's population (3,698 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which aligns with the regional average of 30.9%. Notably, 30.1% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 16.4% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 64th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mortdale features a more urban dwelling mix with significant apartment living, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Mortdale's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 42.8% houses and 57.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mortdale was at 30.5%, with the rest either mortgaged (32.0%) or rented (37.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,286, below Sydney metro's average of $2,466. The median weekly rent was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $440. Nationally, Mortdale's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mortdale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 70.4% of all households, including 34.9% couples with children, 23.8% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 29.6%, with lone person households at 26.1% and group households making up 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

The educational profile of Mortdale exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 38.2% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.3%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.5% and certificates for 16.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.7% in primary education, 6.7% in tertiary education, and 6.3% pursuing secondary education. Mortdale's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,960 students and offer balanced educational opportunities with an ICSEA score of 1042. The educational mix includes two primary schools, one secondary school, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 11.6, indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mortdale has 37 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 23 different routes that facilitate 5,024 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

The service frequency is 717 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 135 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mortdale's residents are extremely healthy with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though slightly higher across older, at risk cohorts

Analysis shows strong health metrics in Mortdale with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population. Prevalence is slightly higher among older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover rate is high at approximately 58% (6,584 people), compared to 53.6% across Greater Sydney. The most common conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 6.3% and 6.3% of residents respectively. 75.4% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 77.2% in Greater Sydney. Mortdale has 16.8% (1,894 people) aged 65 and over, lower than the 19.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention due to being above average.

Mortdale is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mortdale's population shows high cultural diversity, with 38.8% born overseas and 42.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mortdale, accounting for 53.3%. Hinduism is notably higher than the Greater Sydney average, making up 5.9% of Mortdale's population compared to 6.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (17.3%), Australian (17.0%), and Other (14.4%). Some ethnic groups have varying representations: Macedonian is overrepresented at 3.8%, Croatian at 1.6%, and Chinese at 14.2% compared to regional averages of 2.3%, 1.2%, and 23.9% respectively.

Mortdale's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Mortdale is 38 years, close to Greater Sydney's average of 37 and equivalent to Australia's median of 38. Compared to Greater Sydney, Mortdale has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (9.3%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (11.0%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 11.4% to 12.8%, while the 35-44 age group has decreased from 15.7% to 14.6%. By 2041, Mortdale's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 59% (351 people), reaching 949 from 597. Those aged 65 and above are expected to comprise 79% of the population growth, with declines projected for the 25-34 and 0-4 age groups.