Padstow

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population is around 17,620 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 420 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,200 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,503 from the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,706 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow's growth rate of 2.4% since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 80.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national areas, with the area expected to expand by 943 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 4.5% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has received approximately 124 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 624 homes. As of FY-26, 44 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year have arrived for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of these new homes was $483,000, aligning with broader regional development figures.

In the current financial year, $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has experienced slightly more development over the past five years, at 29.0% above the regional average per person. This balance supports buyer choice while maintaining current property values. The new building activity shows a trend towards denser development, with 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 69.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has an approximate population density of 138 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low-density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Padstow is projected to gain 793 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Padstow has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact the area. Notable projects include Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Padstow has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 3.7%.

Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of June 2025, 9,876 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Padstow is somewhat below standard at 55.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

The area has a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence with 8.6% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. State-level data for NSW to Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended 30 June 2022 shows median income in Padstow SA2 was $51,588 and average income was $64,227. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year ended 30 June 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,093 (median) and $72,326 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. The earnings profile shows largest segment comprises 30.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (5,409 residents). High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, disposable income ranks at the 57th percentile, and area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Padstow's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow was recorded at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.0% and rented ones at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,427, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent figure for Padstow was $470, higher than Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Padstow trail regional benchmarks, 29.3% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This gap suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Padstow public transport analysis shows that there are 86 active transport stops in operation. These include a mix of train and bus services. The total number of weekly passenger trips facilitated by these stops is 4,782.

This figure is achieved through the collective effort of 33 individual routes. Residents enjoy excellent accessibility to public transport, with an average distance of 181 meters to the nearest stop. Service frequency across all routes averages at 683 trips per day, which equates to approximately 55 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow shows superior health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions across both younger and older age groups. It has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~9,144 people), compared to 48.6% in Greater Sydney.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (6%). Notably, 72.6% of residents report no medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 75.8%. Padstow has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.5% (3,439 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors in Padstow are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow's cultural diversity is notable, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Padstow is Christianity, accounting for 58.0% of the population. Islam, while present at 8.0%, is significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 27.9%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian parents comprise 16.5%, English 16.2%, and Other 14.3% of Padstow's population, which is lower than regional averages. Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 14.9%. Similarly, Macedonian (2.0% vs 1.7%) and Greek (4.7% vs 3.4%) ethnicities are also overrepresented in Padstow.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and somewhat older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney's averages, Padstow has an over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort at 13.2%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group grew from 5.8% to 6.6% of Padstow's population, whilst the 45-54 cohort declined from 13.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Padstow's age profile. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 50%, adding 587 residents to reach a total of 1,757. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to represent 91% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are anticipated for the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts.