Padstow

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population is around 17,620 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 420 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,200. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,503 in June 2024 and an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,706 persons per square kilometer. Padstow's growth rate of 2.4% since the census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.1%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 80.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national areas, with the area expected to expand by 943 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 4.5% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has experienced approximately 124 dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 624 homes. As of FY-26, 53 approvals have been recorded. On average, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 0.1 new residents arrived per newly approved home. The average construction value of new homes over this period was $345,000.

This financial year has seen $1.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has shown slightly more development activity, with 29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. The new building activity consists of approximately 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings. This shift towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers, differing from the current housing composition which is 69.0% houses. The location has an approximate population density of 138 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Padstow is projected to gain 793 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Padstow has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Padstow has been broadly consistent with national averages

Padstow has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented, an unemployment rate of 3.9%, and estimated employment growth of 3.6% in the past year as of September 2025. There are 9,810 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is lower at 55.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical services have limited presence at 8.6% compared to the regional average of 11.5%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 4.0%, raising unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.1% and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that Padstow SA2 has a median income of $51,588 and an average income of $64,227. This is comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,093 (median) and $72,326 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly) and personal income at the 41st percentile in Padstow SA2. The largest earnings segment comprises 30.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,409 residents), similar to broader trends across the region with 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow, as per the latest Census evaluation, 69.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 30.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. In comparison, Sydney metro had 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.0% and rented ones at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent in Padstow was $470, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, consisting of lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Padstow trail region, 29.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent with 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%).

Educational participation is high at 28.9%, with 8.9% enrolled in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of Padstow's public transport system shows that there are currently 86 operational transport stops in the area. These stops offer a combination of train and bus services. There are 33 unique routes operating within Padstow, which together facilitate approximately 4,782 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents on average situated just 181 meters away from the nearest stop. On a daily basis, there are an average of 683 trips across all routes, translating to roughly 55 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older residents. Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of Padstow's total population (~9,144 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 48.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (6.0%). About 72.6% of residents report no medical ailments, versus 75.8% in Greater Sydney. Padstow has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (19.5%, or 3,439 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Padstow, comprising 58.0% of its people, which is significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 27.9%. Islam is overrepresented in Padstow, making up 8.0% of the population compared to the regional average of 27.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (16.5%), English (16.2%), and Other (14.3%). Some ethnic groups have notable differences: Lebanese at 5.0% in Padstow versus 14.9% regionally, Macedonian at 2.0% compared to 1.7%, and Greek at 4.7% versus 3.4%.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has a notably over-represented cohort of 55-64 year-olds (13.2%) and an under-represented cohort of 25-34 year-olds (12.4%). Following the Census in 2021, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 5.8% to 6.6%, while the 45 to 54 age group declined from 13.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, Padstow's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is expected to grow by 50%, adding 587 residents to reach 1,757. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 91% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age cohorts.