Padstow
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 17,622. This figure represents a growth of 422 people, a 2.5% increase since the 2021 Census which recorded a population of 17,200. The change is inferred from ABS's estimated resident population of 17,502 in June 2024 and an additional 83 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,706 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow's growth rate of 2.5% since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.0%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.3% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving primary population growth for the area.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median of national areas, with an expected expansion of 943 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, resulting in a total increase of 4.5% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has received approximately 114 dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides development approval data on a financial year basis. Between Financial Year 2020 (FY-20) and FY-25, there were a total of 573 approvals. As of FY-26, there have been 25 approvals.

On average, over the past five financial years, 0.1 new residents per year have arrived for each new home. This indicates that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and potential for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $483,000, in line with regional trends. In FY-26, $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has recorded elevated construction levels, 25.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years.

This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values. Recent construction comprises 24.0% standalone homes and 76.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift from the area's existing housing (currently 69.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with a need for more diverse and affordable housing options. Padstow shows characteristics of a low density area, with around 138 people per dwelling approval. Future projections indicate Padstow adding 791 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects that are expected to impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Notable projects include Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development. The following list details those projects that are likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Padstow has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services strongly represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.7% and it has seen an estimated employment growth of 2.4% in the past year.

As of June 2025, 9,876 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower at 55.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Padstow has a particular specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.5 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 8.6% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data. In the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.4%, while labour force increased by 2.6%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a 0.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%, but lags behind national employment growth of 0.26%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia predict a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that Padstow has median income of $51,588 and average income of $64,227. This is compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $56,994 and average income of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from financial year ending June 2022 to March 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $57,056 (median) and $71,035 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Padstow's household income ranks at the 59th percentile with weekly earnings of $1,899. Personal income is at the 42nd percentile. Income brackets indicate that 30.7% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually (5,409 individuals). This aligns with broader trends in the area showing 30.9% in the same income category. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 58th percentile. Padstow's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Padstow, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.0% and rented ones at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent in Padstow was $470, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,427 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Padstow trail regional benchmarks, 29.3% of residents aged 15 and over hold university degrees, compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This difference indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 31.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 19.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Padstow's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,172 students as of the latest data. The schools focus exclusively on primary education, with an Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA) score of 1046, indicating typical Australian school conditions and balanced educational opportunities. Due to limited local school capacity (6.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.8), many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 86 operational stops in Padstow offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 33 unique routes, facilitating 4,782 weekly passenger journeys. Transport access is rated excellent with residents typically situated 181 meters from the nearest stop.

Services run at an average frequency of 683 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 55 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions across younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% (~9,145 people), slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 48.6%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (6%). Around 72.6% report no medical ailments, compared to 75.8% in Greater Sydney. Approximately 19.5% of residents are aged 65 and over (3,439 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Senior health outcomes align with the general population's profile.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a significant cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Padstow, accounting for 58.0% of people. Islam, however, makes up only 8.0%, which is substantially lower than the Greater Sydney average of 27.9%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (16.5%), English (16.2%), and Other (14.3%). Notably, Lebanese people are overrepresented at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 14.9%, while Macedonian people are slightly overrepresented at 2.0% versus 1.7%. Greek people also have a higher representation in Padstow at 4.7% compared to the regional average of 3.4%.

Padstow's median age exceeds the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, notably higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has a significantly higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (13.2%) and a lower proportion of those aged 25-34 (12.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75-84 increased from 5.8% to 6.6%, while the 45-54 age group decreased from 13.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest Padstow's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 50%, adding 586 residents and reaching a total of 1,757. Residents aged 65 and older are projected to represent 91% of the population growth. However, population declines are anticipated for those aged 55-64 and 15-24 years.