Padstow

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population is approximately 18,593 as of February 2026. This figure represents an increase of 1,393 people, marking an 8.1% rise since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 17,200. The growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,477 in June 2024 and an additional 87 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,856 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow's growth rate of 8.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA4 region (7.6%) and the state level, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest a median increase, with Padstow expected to expand by 943 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall decrease of 1.0% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has received approximately 124 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 624 homes. As of FY-26, 67 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year arrived for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction value of new homes was $345,000.

This financial year has seen $1.5 million in commercial approvals. Compared to Greater Sydney's regional average, Padstow has experienced 29.0% more development per person over the past five years. Recent construction comprises 24.0% detached dwellings and 76.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a shift from the current 69.0% houses. With around 138 people per dwelling approval, Padstow exhibits growth area characteristics. Population projections indicate stability or decline, suggesting reduced housing demand pressures in the future.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Padstow should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Padstow has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified 17 such projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable among these are Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development. The following list provides details on those projects deemed most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Padstow has been broadly consistent with national averages

Padstow has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 3.9%, lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.2%. In September 2025, 9810 residents were employed, and the participation rate matched Greater Sydney's 70.0%.

However, 47.4% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Major employment sectors include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. Notably, transport, postal & warehousing has high concentration with levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 8.6% employment compared to the regional 11.5%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, Padstow's employment increased by 3.6%, while labour force grew by 4.0%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1%, labour force growth of 2.4%, and a 0.2 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Padstow SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $56,646 and an average of $69,002 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This was slightly above national averages, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $61,665 (median) and $75,116 (average) as of September 2025. Census data indicates household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. Income brackets show that the largest segment comprises 30.7% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (5,708 residents). This mirrors surrounding regions where 30.9% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 57th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Padstow's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.0% and rented ones at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, aligning with Sydney metro's average, while the median weekly rent was $470, also matching Sydney metro figures. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

In Padstow, 29.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. The most common qualification is a bachelor degree at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.9% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 8.9% in primary, 7.9% in secondary, and 6.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 32 individual routes, facilitating 4,236 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 181 meters from the nearest stop. In this primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode at 81%. Train usage stands at 12%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 47.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 605 trips per day, equating to roughly 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow exhibits superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Prevalence of common health conditions is notably low across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,910 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area's 47%. This compares to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (6.0%). A significant majority, 72.6%, report no medical ailments, compared to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Health outcomes for the under-65 population are better than average. Padstow has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 20.2% (3,755 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Senior health outcomes are above average, mirroring national rankings closely with the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a high level of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The predominant religion in Padstow is Christianity, accounting for 58.0% of the population. Islam is notably overrepresented, comprising 8.0% compared to 6.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry, Australians make up 16.5%, followed by English at 16.2%, and Other at 14.3%. Some ethnic groups are significantly more represented in Padstow than regionally: Lebanese (5.0% vs 2.6%), Macedonian (2.0% vs 0.4%), and Greek (4.7% vs 1.9%).

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Comparing with Greater Sydney, Padstow has a notably higher proportion of the 55-64 age cohort (13.1%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.2%). Post-2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group increased from 5.8% to 6.8%, while the 45 to 54 cohort decreased from 13.0% to 12.1%. By 2041, Padstow's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75 to 84 cohort is expected to grow by 38%, adding 483 residents to reach 1,757. Residents aged 65 and over will represent 96% of the population growth. Conversely, declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts.