Padstow
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population is around 17,622 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 422 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,200 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,502 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 83 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,706 persons per square kilometer. Padstow's 2.5% growth since census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 80.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on the latest population numbers, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected by 2041, with an increase of 943 persons and 4.5% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has received approximately 124 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 624 homes. As of FY-26, 32 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year have arrived for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. This supply meets or exceeds demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of new homes is $483,000, aligning with broader regional development. In FY-26, $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has experienced slightly more development over the past five years, at 29.0% above the regional average per person. This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values. New building activity shows 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings, indicating a shift towards denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition of 69.0% houses. Padstow has approximately 138 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low density market. Population forecasts indicate Padstow will gain 791 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Padstow has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 3.7%.

Over the past year, there was an estimated employment growth of 2.4%. As of June 2025, 9,876 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.5% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is lower than Greater Sydney's at 55.2%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 8.6% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.6%, labour force expanded by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project a 6.6% growth over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows Padstow's median income is $51,588 and average income is $64,227. This is comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimated incomes are approximately $58,093 (median) and $72,326 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census ranks Padstow's household income at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly) and personal income at the 42nd percentile. Most residents (30.7%, or 5,409 people) earn $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, similar to regional trends. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile. Padstow's SEIFA income ranking is in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow, as per the latest Census evaluation, 69.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 30.8% comprising semi-detached properties, apartments, and other types. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 35.0% and rented ones 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,427, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent figure for Padstow was $470, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Padstow has a university degree holder rate of 29.3% among residents aged 15 and above, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 31.1% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Padstow's four schools have a combined enrollment of 1,172 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) with balanced educational opportunities. These schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. School capacity is limited locally (6.7 places per 100 residents vs 16.8 regionally), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Padstow shows 86 active transport stops operating, consisting of train and bus services. These stops are served by 33 individual routes, collectively offering 4,782 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 683 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 55 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. It has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 48.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6% of residents) and asthma (6.0%), with 72.6% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 75.8% in Greater Sydney. Padstow has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 19.5% (3,439 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, similar to the general population's health profile.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow's cultural diversity is notable, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Padstow, practiced by 58.0% of residents, which is significantly lower than the Greater Sydney average of 27.9%. Islam comprises 8.0% of Padstow's population, a substantial decrease from the regional average.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (16.5%), English (16.2%), and Other (14.3%), all notably lower than the regional averages. Certain ethnic groups show significant variations: Lebanese at 5.0% (vs 14.9% regionally), Macedonian at 2.0% (vs 1.7%), and Greek at 4.7% (vs 3.4%).

Padstow's median age exceeds the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and slightly older than Australia's median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has a notably higher proportion of the 55-64 cohort (13.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (12.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the 75-84 age group increased from 5.8% to 6.6%, while the 45-54 cohort decreased from 13.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, Padstow's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 50%, adding 586 residents to reach a total of 1,757. Residents aged 65 and older are anticipated to represent 91% of the population growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 55-64 and 15-24 age cohorts.