Padstow

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Padstow's population is around 18,593 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,393 people (8.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 17,200 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,477 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 87 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,856 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow's 8.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (7.6%) and the state, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 80.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 943 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a decrease of 1.0% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has experienced around 124 dwellings receiving development approval each year, totalling 624 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 78 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 0.1 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), supply is meeting or surpassing demand, providing greater buyer choice and supporting potential for population growth above projections, while new homes are being built at an average value of $345,000. There have also been $1.5 million in commercial approvals this financial year, demonstrating the area's residential nature.

Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has slightly more development (29.0% above regional average per person over the 5 year period), balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. Recent construction comprises 24.0% detached dwellings and 76.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 69.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 138 people per dwelling approval, Padstow shows characteristics of a growth area.

With population projections showing stability or decline, Padstow should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Padstow has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Padstow has been broadly consistent with national averages

Padstow features a well-educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of only 3.8%, and 5.3% estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 9,884 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 0.3% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation is on par with Greater Sydney's 70.2%. Based on Census responses, a high 47.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Meanwhile, professional & technical services have a limited presence with 8.6% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 5.3% while the labour force increased by 5.2%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with unemployment rising marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Padstow. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Padstow SA2 shows a median taxpayer income of $56,646 and an average of $69,002 according to the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. This is slightly above average nationally, contrasting with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,665 (median) and $75,116 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly), while personal income sits at the 41st percentile. Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 30.7% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (5,708 residents), mirroring the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 17.7% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 57th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Padstow, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Padstow was well beyond that of Sydney metro, at 35.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (35.0%) or rented (29.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was in line with the Sydney metro average at $2,427, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $470, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 75.6% of all households, comprising 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Padstow trail regional benchmarks, with 29.3% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 100 active transport stops operating within Padstow, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 32 individual routes, collectively providing 4,236 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 81%, with 12% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. A high 47.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 605 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow demonstrates above-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly leads the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~9,910 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.6% and 6.0% of residents, respectively, while 72.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 20.2% of residents aged 65 and over (3,755 people), which is higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow scores highly on cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Padstow is Christianity, which makes up 58.0% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation is in Islam, which comprises 8.0% of the population, compared to 6.8% across Greater Sydney.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Padstow are Australian, comprising 16.5% of the population, English, comprising 16.2% of the population, and Other, comprising 14.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Lebanese is notably overrepresented at 5.0% of Padstow (vs 2.6% regionally), Macedonian at 2.0% (vs 0.4%) and Greek at 4.7% (vs 1.9%).

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

At 41 years, Padstow's median age is significantly above the Greater Sydney average of 37 as well as somewhat older than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, the 55 - 64 cohort is notably over-represented (13.1% locally), while 25 - 34 year-olds are under-represented (12.2%). Following the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 5.8% to 6.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 12.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Padstow's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 38%, adding 483 residents to reach 1,757. Demographic aging continues as residents 65 and older represent 96% of anticipated growth. On the other hand, population declines are projected for the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 cohorts.