Padstow

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population, according to AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 17,757 as of May 2026. This figure represents an increase of 557 people, a rise of 3.2% since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 17,200. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 17,693 in June 2025 and an additional 87 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,727 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow's growth rate of 3.2% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (5.4%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 78.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median of national areas, with the area expected to expand by 866 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 4.5% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has received around 124 dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals 624 homes from FY-20 to FY-25. As of FY-26100 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year have moved into newly approved dwellings between FY-21 and FY-25.

This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, offering greater buyer choice while supporting potential population growth beyond projections. The average construction cost of new homes over this period was $345,000. In FY-26, there have been $1.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has experienced 29.0% more development per person over the past five years. New building activity shows 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings, indicating a shift towards denser development to cater to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

This trend differs from the area's existing housing composition of 69.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The location has approximately 138 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Padstow is forecasted to gain 801 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Padstow has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 16 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones include Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development, and Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment performance in Padstow has been broadly consistent with national averages

Padstow has an educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.3%.

As of December 2025, 9,884 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% below Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. Census responses showed that 47.4% of residents worked from home, possibly influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

Transport, postal & warehousing had particularly notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Professional & technical services had limited presence at 8.6% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears residential-dominated, offering limited local employment opportunities as suggested by the working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 5.3% while labour force increased by 5.2%, keeping unemployment stable at 3.8%. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.2%, labour force expanded by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally to 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows median income in Padstow SA2 at $56,646 and average income at $69,002. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003 for the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated current incomes would be approximately $62,492 (median) and $76,123 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly), with personal income at the 41st percentile. The earnings profile indicates that 30.7% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (5,451 residents). Housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 57th percentile. Padstow SA2's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow, as per the latest Census evaluation, 69.2% of dwellings were houses while 30.8% consisted of other types such as semi-detached properties, apartments and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 35.0% and rented dwellings making up 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,427, matching Sydney metro's average. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $470, also aligning with Sydney metro's figure. Nationally, Padstow's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,427 compared to Australia's average of $1,863. Similarly, rents in Padstow were substantially above the national average of $375, with a median weekly rent figure of $470.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Padstow trail's regional benchmarks indicate that 29.3% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This difference suggests potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 31.1% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow has 100 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 32 routes, facilitating 4,236 weekly passenger trips in total. The average distance from residents to the nearest stop is 181 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Residents primarily commute outward due to Padstow's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 81%, with train use at 12%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 47.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 605 trips per day, equating to approximately 42 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is low across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 53% (~9,464 people) have private health cover, higher than the average SA2 area but lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.6% and 6.0% of residents respectively. About 72.6% report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The under-65 population has better-than-average health outcomes. Around 20.0% (~3,556 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, broadly matching the general population's national rankings.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow's population shows high cultural diversity, with 37.4% born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Padstow, accounting for 58.0%. Islam is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 8.0% of Padstow's population versus 6.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are Australian (16.5%), English (16.2%), and Other (14.3%). Notably, Lebanese ethnicity is overrepresented at 5.0%, Macedonian at 2.0%, and Greek at 4.7%, compared to regional figures of 2.6%, 0.4%, and 1.9% respectively.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly above Australia's median of 38. The 55-64 cohort makes up 12.8% of Padstow's population, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.4%. Post-2021 Census, the 65-74 age group has increased from 9.2% to 10.1%, whereas the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 11.9%. By 2041, Padstow's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 75-84 cohort is expected to grow by 46%, adding 542 residents to reach 1,727. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 89% of the population growth. Conversely, populations in the 15-24 and 25-34 age groups are projected to decline.