Padstow
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Padstow's population was recorded as 17,200 people during the 2021 Census. By November 2025, this figure had increased to around 17,620, reflecting a growth of 420 people (2.4%). This increase is inferred from ABS estimates; Padstow's population was 17,503 in June 2024, with an additional 82 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is approximately 2,706 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Since the 2021 Census, Padstow's growth of 2.4% is within 1.7 percentage points of the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.1%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.3% of overall population gains in recent periods.

For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered SA2 areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on current trends, Padstow is expected to increase by approximately 943 persons by 2041, representing a total increase of 4.5% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow has received around 124 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 624 homes. As of FY-26, 44 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 new residents per year have arrived for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25. The supply of new dwellings meets or exceeds demand, offering more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth above projections.

The average construction value of new homes is $345,000. This financial year has seen $1.5 million in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has slightly more development, with 29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. New building activity shows 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings, indicating a shift towards denser development to provide accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This trend differs from the area's existing housing composition of 69.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 138 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts predict Padstow will gain 793 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects that are likely to impact the area significantly due to their influence on local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Among these key projects are Evergreen Industrial, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, and 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Padstow has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate is 3.7%.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 2.4%. As of June 2025, 9,876 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Padstow is somewhat below standard at 55.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade.

The area shows a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. However, professional & technical services have limited presence with 8.6% employment compared to 11.5% regionally. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.4% while labour force increased by 2.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Padstow was $51,588 and average income was $64,227. This is comparable to national averages but lower than Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. By September 2025, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $58,093 and average income $72,326, based on a 12.61% increase since financial year 2022. The 2021 Census ranks Padstow's household income at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly) and personal income at the 42nd percentile. Most residents (30.7%, or 5,409 people) earn between $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, similar to regional trends. Housing costs consume 17.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 58th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Padstow's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow was at 35.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 35.0% and rented ones at 29.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,427, higher than Sydney metro's $2,240. Median weekly rent in Padstow was $470, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 75.6% of all households, including 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 24.4%, with lone person households at 22.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational qualifications in Padstow trail regional benchmarks, with 29.3% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. Bachelor degrees lead at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%). Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 6.0% pursuing tertiary education. Padstow's four schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,172 students as of the latest data point. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1046) with balanced educational opportunities. The four schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Limited local school capacity (6.7 places per 100 residents vs 16.8 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Padstow shows 86 active public transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 33 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 4782 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 683 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 55 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow shows a lower prevalence of common health conditions compared to other areas, with both younger and older age groups having below-average figures. Approximately 52% of Padstow's population (~9,144 people) has private health cover, which is higher than the Greater Sydney average of 48.6%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in Padstow are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (6%). About 72.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 75.8% across Greater Sydney. Padstow has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 19.5%, with 3,439 people in this age group, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 15.8%. Health outcomes among seniors in Padstow are above average, similar to those of the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a notable cultural diversity, with 37.4% of its population born overseas and 43.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Padstow, accounting for 58.0% of people. However, Islam is overrepresented compared to the Greater Sydney average, comprising 8.0% of Padstow's population.

In terms of ancestry, Australian-born parents are most common (16.5%), followed by English (16.2%) and Other (14.3%). Lebanese ethnicity is notably higher in Padstow at 5.0%, compared to the regional average of 14.9%. Macedonian ethnicity stands at 2.0% in Padstow, slightly above the regional average of 1.7%. Greek ethnicity is also higher than the regional average, at 4.7% in Padstow versus 3.4%.

Padstow's median age exceeds the national pattern

Padstow's median age is 41 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 and slightly older than Australia's median of 38. In comparison to Greater Sydney, Padstow has a notably higher proportion of the 55-64 cohort (13.2% locally) and a lower proportion of the 25-34 age group (12.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 75 to 84 grew from 5.8% to 6.6%, while the 45 to 54 cohort declined from 13.0% to 12.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Padstow's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 50% to reach 1,757 residents, with those aged 65 and older accounting for 91% of anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to decline in population.