Padstow

An assessment of population growth drivers in Padstow reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

According to AreaSearch, the population of Padstow is approximately 17,757 in May 2026. This represents an expansion of 557 individuals (3.2%) from the 17,200 residents counted in the 2021 Census. The evaluation is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 17,693 alongside 87 validated new addresses registered post-Census. Such a population size results in 2,727 persons per square kilometer, placing this suburb in the top quartile of all Australian locations analyzed. The post-census growth of 3.2% trailing the broader SA3 region (5.4%) by 2.2 percentage points indicates solid competitive momentum. Net population growth was mostly fueled by international migration, which accounted for roughly 78.4% of total gains in recent times.

AreaSearch incorporates projections from the ABS and Geoscience Australia published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline for each SA2. Where these are missing, SA2 projections from the NSW State Government published in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are substituted. Projected growth rates per age category from these datasets are applied to all locations for the period spanning 2032 to 2041. Future demographic models suggest a population rise slightly under the national median, with the suburb projected to add 866 residents by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, indicating a total growth rate of 4.5% across the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Padstow averages approximately 124 building approvals for dwellings annually, resulting in a total of 624 residential units over the preceding 5 fiscal years. For FY-26 to date, 109 approvals have been logged. With an average of only 0.5 new residents added per constructed dwelling annually between FY-21 and FY-25, residential supply is successfully keeping pace with or outrunning demand, offering purchasers more options while paving the way for population gains beyond projections, with the new properties carrying an average construction value of $345,000. In addition, commercial development approvals reached $1.5 million this fiscal year, underlining the largely residential nature of the suburb.

Relative to Greater Sydney, Padstow has seen marginally higher construction levels (29.0% above the regional average per capita over the 5 year period), which helps sustain home values while preserving choice for buyers. Recent building permits show a mix of 24.0% detached houses and 76.0% attached dwellings. The shift towards higher-density structures provides more attainable entry points and holds appeal for downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This is a clear departure from the current housing stock (where houses make up 69.0%), indicating fewer vacant development lots and reflecting changing lifestyle preferences alongside a demand for more varied, affordable housing styles. The locality records approximately 139 residents for every dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Demographic forecasts point to Padstow gaining 801 residents up to 2041 based on the most recent quarterly estimate from AreaSearch. Given current building trends, the supply of homes should comfortably satisfy demand, establishing positive terms for buyers and potentially supporting expansion rates that outpace standard forecasts.

Padstow has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure, development projects, and zoning plans have a major impact on suburban performance. AreaSearch has highlighted a total of 16 projects that are expected to influence the local area. Principal developments include the Evergreen Industrial site, the UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, the 19-21 Banks Street Co-living Development, and the Padstow Parade Mixed Use Development, with the listed items showing those of the highest relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Padstow has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

The local workforce in Padstow is well-educated, showing strong representation in professional services, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and an estimated annual job growth rate of 3.1%. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 9,815, while the local unemployment rate matched the Greater Sydney benchmark of 4.1%, and the participation rate was identical to the Greater Sydney level of 69.1%. Census records show that a high proportion of residents, 47.4%, worked from home, although this figure may be influenced by Covid-19 restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and retail trade. The suburb displays a strong concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, where employment levels are 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, professional & technical roles are underrepresented at 8.6% of the workforce compared to 11.5% across the region. As a heavily residential suburb, local job availability appears restricted, as shown by the relationship between the Census working population and resident population statistics.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS statistics for the 12 months ending March 2026, local employment grew by 3.1% while the labor force expanded by 3.5%, resulting in a 0.3 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. This compares to Greater Sydney, which recorded a 1.9% rise in employment, a 1.9% increase in the labor force, and a slight decrease in unemployment. National employment forecasts from May-25 by Jobs and Skills Australia provide further context on future opportunities in Padstow. These five and ten-year projections have been integrated with local employment profiles to estimate local trends. Nationally, employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though individual sector growth rates vary. Applying these industry projections to the local workforce mix suggests Padstow's employment numbers will grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, representing a simple weighted model for illustrative purposes that excludes local population forecasts.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The most recent postcode-level ATO data released by AreaSearch for financial year 2023 indicates that local incomes in the Padstow SA2 are slightly higher than national averages, with a median of $56,646 and an average of $69,002. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded a median income of $60,817 and an average of $83,003. Adjusting for a 10.32% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, local incomes are estimated at $62,492 (median) and $76,123 (average) as of March 2026. In the 2021 Census, local household income sat at the 59th percentile ($1,899 weekly), and individual income was at the 41st percentile. The largest earnings band consists of the 30.7% of residents earning between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (5,451 residents), closely matching the regional average of 30.9% for this range. Residential costs consume 17.7% of incomes, but solid overall earnings keep disposable income at the 57th percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 6th decile for income.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Residential structures in Padstow at the time of the latest Census consisted of 69.2% houses and 30.8% other dwelling types (such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and miscellaneous dwellings), compared to the metropolitan Sydney split of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Furthermore, home ownership in Padstow was considerably higher than the Sydney metro average, standing at 35.2%, with remaining residences either mortgaged (35.0%) or rented (29.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment locally was equal to the Sydney metro average at $2,427, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $470, matching the Sydney metro figures of $2,427 and $470. On a national scale, Padstow's mortgage costs are notably higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are significantly above the national average of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the majority of local households at 75.6%, which includes 38.6% couples with children, 23.2% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family living situations account for the other 24.4% of households, with lone person households representing 22.0% and group housing making up 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.8 individuals is slightly larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

The educational profile of Padstow exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Educational attainment levels in Padstow sit below regional figures, with 29.3% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This difference suggests room for further educational and professional skill development. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 20.4%, followed by postgraduate degrees (6.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational qualifications are common, with 31.1% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (19.9%).

Enrolment in education is strong, with 28.9% of local residents actively undertaking formal study. This student population includes 8.9% in primary school, 7.9% in high school, and 6.0% enrolled in higher education courses.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

An analysis of public transit shows 100 active transport stops operating within Padstow, including both trains and buses. These stops are utilized by 32 separate routes, which provide a total of 4,236 passenger trips weekly. Accessibility is highly rated, with residents living an average of 181 meters from their nearest transit option. Because the suburb is primarily residential, the majority of workers commute outward, with cars remaining the main transit mode at 81%, followed by trains at 12%. Average vehicle ownership is 1.3 per household. A high 47.4% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

Transit services average 605 trips daily across all available routes, which translates to approximately 42 weekly trips for each transit stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions quite low across both younger and older age cohorts

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic illness indicators, Padstow records favorable health outcomes, with a low prevalence of common medical issues across both younger and older cohorts, and private health coverage just exceeding the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the population (~9,464 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

The most prevalent health issues recorded in the suburb were arthritis and asthma, which affect 7.6 and 6.0% of residents, respectively, while 72.6% of the population reported no chronic conditions, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The population under the age of 65 exhibits strong health trends. Residents aged 65 and older make up 20.0% of the local population (3,556 people), which is higher than the 15.5% share in Greater Sydney. Health indicators for these seniors are positive, with national percentiles aligning closely with the broader community.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow displays notable levels of cultural diversity, with 37.4% of residents born outside Australia and 43.3% communicating in a language other than English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 58.0% of the population. The most prominent religious overrepresentation is Islam, which accounts for 8.0% of the population, compared to 6.8% across Greater Sydney.

Looking at ancestral backgrounds (parents' country of birth), the primary groups in Padstow are Australian at 16.5%, English at 16.2%, and Other at 14.3%. In addition, there are distinct differences in representation for other heritages: Lebanese ancestry is highly represented at 5.0% of Padstow (vs 2.6% regionally), Macedonian is at 2.0% (vs 0.4%), and Greek is at 4.7% (vs 1.9%).

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

With a median age of 41 years, Padstow's population is considerably older than the Greater Sydney average of 37 and slightly above the Australian median of 38. The 55 - 64 age group is particularly overrepresented relative to Greater Sydney (12.8% locally), while the 25 - 34 bracket is underrepresented (12.4%). Since the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group expanded from 9.2% to 10.1% of the population, while the 45 to 54 cohort shrank from 13.0% to 11.9%. Demographic forecasts suggest Padstow's age structure will change significantly by 2041, with the 75 to 84 cohort growing the fastest by 46% (adding 542 residents to total 1,727). This trend toward an older demographic continues as individuals aged 65 and over constitute 89% of expected population growth. In contrast, population decreases are expected for both the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 age brackets.