Mortdale - Oatley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mortdale - Oatley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mortdale-Oatley's population, as per AreaSearch's analysis, is approximately 15,230 as of November 2025. This figure represents a 3.5% increase from the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,715. The growth is inferred from an estimated resident population of 15,220 in June 2024 and 42 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,430 persons per square kilometer, placing Mortdale-Oatley in the upper quartile nationally. The area's growth rate of 3.5% since the census is within 2.0 percentage points of its SA4 region (5.5%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.3% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Mortdale-Oatley is expected to grow by approximately 1,565 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.2% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mortdale - Oatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mortdale-Oatley has recorded approximately 35 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 179 homes. In FY26, 12 approvals have been recorded so far. On average, 0.1 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes is $453,000, slightly above the regional average.

This year, $780,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Comparatively, Mortdale-Oatley records around 63% of Greater Sydney's building activity per person and ranks among the 44th percentile nationally when assessed for buyer choice. This suggests relatively constrained options, supporting interest in existing dwellings due to its mature market status with approximately 383 people per approval. New building activity consists of 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, offering a mix of housing types catering to different price points.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Mortdale-Oatley is projected to gain 1,552 residents by 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mortdale - Oatley has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Mortdale RSL Redevelopment, Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan, 70-76 Pitt Street Mortdale, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade. The following list highlights those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mortdale - Oatley performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Mortdale-Oatley has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 2.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.9%. There were 9,749 residents employed as of September 2025, with workforce participation at 63.0%, similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training, with a notable concentration in the latter, being 1.2 times the regional average. Construction is under-represented, with only 7.1% of Mortdale-Oatley's workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force by 4.1%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney had employment growth of 2.1% and labour force growth of 2.4%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourable compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mortdale-Oatley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Mortdale - Oatley SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $59,103 and an average of $83,923. This is one of the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $66,556 (median) and $94,506 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Mortdale - Oatley cluster around the 73rd percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.0% of the community (4,721 individuals), similar to surrounding regions where 30.9% occupy this range. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 34.4% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income while strong earnings rank residents within the 76th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mortdale - Oatley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mortdale-Oatley's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, had 53.6% houses and 46.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mortdale-Oatley stood at 35.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.1% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's $2,466. Median weekly rent in Mortdale-Oatley was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $440. Nationally, Mortdale-Oatley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mortdale - Oatley has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.9% of all households, including 38.5% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.1%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households making up 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Mortdale - Oatley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Mortdale-Oatley shows a significant advantage with 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications, compared to the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent with 28.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high in the area, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 60 active stops in Mortdale-Oatley area, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 23 distinct routes, facilitating 5,072 weekly passenger trips collectively. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents on average located 144 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 724 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mortdale - Oatley's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Mortdale-Oatley. Prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups is very low. Approximately 62% of the total population (9503 people) have private health cover, compared to 53.6% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.3 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 75.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.2% across Greater Sydney. Mortdale-Oatley has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2744 people), which is lower than the 19.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Mortdale - Oatley was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mortdale-Oatley has a high cultural diversity, with 34.7% of its population born overseas and 37.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Mortdale-Oatley, comprising 55.6%. Hinduism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 4.3% versus 6.5%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (19.0%, higher than regional average of 13.2%), Australian (18.4%, higher than regional average of 12.6%), and Chinese (13.6%, lower than regional average of 23.9%). Other ethnicities with notable representation include Macedonian at 3.4% versus 2.3%, Croatian at 1.5% versus 1.2%, and Greek at 3.9% versus 5.6%.

Mortdale - Oatley's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Mortdale-Oatley is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the percentage of people aged 65-74 is notably higher at 10.2% locally, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 12.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of people aged 15-24 has increased from 11.6% to 12.9%, while the percentage of those aged 35-44 has decreased from 15.2% to 14.0%. By 2041, Mortdale-Oatley's population is forecasted to experience significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 64%, reaching 1,420 people from the current 866. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who are expected to represent 72% of the total population increase. Conversely, the populations of those aged 0-4 and 5-14 are anticipated to decline.