Mortdale - Oatley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mortdale - Oatley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mortdale - Oatley's population is approximately 15,495 as of February 2026. This figure represents a 780-person increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,715. The growth was inferred from an estimated resident population of 15,217 in June 2024 and the addition of 45 validated new addresses post-census. This results in a population density ratio of 3,489 persons per square kilometer, placing Mortdale - Oatley in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessments. The area's 5.3% growth since the census is within 2.3 percentage points of its SA4 region (7.6%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration accounted for approximately 82.3% of overall population gains in recent periods, driving primary growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Based on demographic trends and latest annual ERP population numbers, Mortdale - Oatley is expected to grow by approximately 1,565 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of around 8.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mortdale - Oatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mortdale-Oatley has recorded approximately 35 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 179 homes. As of FY26, 24 approvals have been granted. The average population growth rate for each dwelling built in the area between FY21 and FY25 is 0.1 people per year. This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for future population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost value of new homes in the area is $453,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY26, commercial approvals valued at $780,000 have been registered, reflecting the residential nature of the area. Compared to Greater Sydney, Mortdale-Oatley records around 63% of building activity per person and ranks in the 44th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is indicative of a mature market with potential planning constraints.

New building activity comprises approximately 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, offering options across different price points. The area indicates a population growth forecast of 1,287 residents by 2041, with building activity keeping pace with these projections despite potential increased competition as the population expands.

Mortdale - Oatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include Mortdale RSL Redevelopment, Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan, 70-76 Pitt Street Mortdale, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mortdale - Oatley performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Mortdale-Oatley has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. The unemployment rate is 2.1%, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.9%.

As of September 2025, 9749 residents are employed and the workforce participation rate is 78.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. Home workership stands at 52.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Education & training has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Construction is under-represented at 7.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 3.9%, labour force by 4.1%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.2 percentage points. Greater Sydney experienced similar trends with employment growth at 2.1% and labour force growth at 2.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mortdale-Oatley's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Mortdale - Oatley SA2 had a median income of $63,022 and an average income of $87,208. This places it among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $68,606 (median) and $94,935 (average). Census data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Mortdale - Oatley cluster around the 73rd percentile nationally. The earnings profile shows that 31.0% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, with a total of 4,803 individuals falling within this range. This is similar to the surrounding region where 30.9% occupy this earnings band. The district demonstrates considerable affluence with 34.4% earning over $3,000 per week. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income, and residents rank highly in terms of disposable income at the 76th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mortdale - Oatley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Mortdale-Oatley, as per the latest Census, consisted of 53.6% houses and 46.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mortdale-Oatley stood at 35.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.1% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent in Mortdale-Oatley was $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Mortdale-Oatley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,500 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mortdale - Oatley has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.9 percent of all households, including 38.5 percent couples with children, 24.4 percent couples without children, and 9.6 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.1 percent, with lone person households at 23.6 percent and group households comprising 2.6 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

Mortdale - Oatley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Mortdale-Oatley exceeds national and state averages. As of 2016 data, 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above have university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 28.0% of residents, with advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 16.6%.

Educational participation is high, with 29.1% currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2016 census. This includes 9.6% in primary, 7.0% in secondary, and 6.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mortdale-Oatley has 70 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 24 routes, collectively facilitating 5,209 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 144 meters to the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most residents commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode at 70%, followed by trains at 20% and walking at 4%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 52.4% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 744 trips daily, equating to approximately 74 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mortdale - Oatley's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Mortdale-Oatley based on AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were very low across all age groups. Private health cover was exceptionally high at approximately 63% of the total population (9,808 people), compared to 59.9% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions were arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.3 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 75.3% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents had low chronic condition prevalence. As of 2021, the area has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,866 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors were particularly strong, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Mortdale - Oatley was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mortdale-Oatley has a high cultural diversity, with 34.7% of its population born overseas and 37.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Mortdale-Oatley, accounting for 55.6% of people. Hinduism is overrepresented, comprising 4.3% compared to Greater Sydney's 5.2%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (19.0%), Australian (18.4%), and Chinese (13.6%), which is higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Notable ethnic group divergences include Macedonian at 3.4% (vs regional 0.4%), Croatian at 1.5% (vs regional 0.7%), and Greek at 3.9% (vs regional 1.9%).

Mortdale - Oatley's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Mortdale - Oatley is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 10.4% locally compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.1%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.6% to 13.2%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 4.7% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has declined from 15.2% to 13.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Mortdale - Oatley. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 55%, reaching 1,420 people from 915. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 74% of anticipated growth. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are expected to experience population declines.