Mortdale - Oatley
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mortdale - Oatley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Mortdale-Oatley's population is around 15,227 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 512 people since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 14,715 people. The change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population of 15,217 as of June 2024 and additional 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,429 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Mortdale-Oatley's 3.5% growth since census positions it within 1.8 percentage points of SA4 region (5.3%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 82.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on latest population numbers, area is expected to grow by 1,565 persons to 2041, with an increase of 10.2% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mortdale - Oatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mortdale - Oatley has recorded approximately 35 residential properties granted approval annually. Development approval data is provided by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 179 approvals from FY21 to FY25 and 6 so far in FY26. This results in an average of 0.1 people moving to the area per dwelling built over the past five financial years. The new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $632,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. This year, $780,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Comparatively, Mortdale - Oatley records around 63% of building activity per person when measured against Greater Sydney and places among the 45th percentile nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing dwellings. This is below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints.

New building activity shows 53.0% standalone homes and 47.0% townhouses or apartments, with a growing mix providing options across different price points. At around 383 people per approval, Mortdale - Oatley indicates a mature market. Population forecasts indicate the area will gain 1,555 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Mortdale - Oatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 25 projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Rail Service Improvement Program (Mortdale-Kiama), Mortdale Maintenance Centre Upgrade, Enterprise Industrial Estate Mortdale, and Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mortdale - Oatley performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Mortdale - Oatley has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of June 2025, with estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year.

In June 2025, 9,722 residents were employed, and the area's unemployment rate was 2.2% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was standard at 63.0%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries included health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training, with a notable concentration in the latter at 1.2 times the regional average. However, construction employment was under-represented at 7.1% of the workforce compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force grew by 2.6%, resulting in a slight unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with an unemployment increase of 0.3 percentage points. State-wide, NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs) to Sep-25, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. National forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mortdale - Oatley's industry mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0%% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, though these estimates are illustrative and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Mortdale - Oatley's median income among taxpayers is $59,103. The average income in the area was $83,923 during this period. This places Mortdale - Oatley among the highest income areas in Australia. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856 for the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth, current estimates suggest Mortdale - Oatley's median income would be approximately $65,368 as of March 2025. The average income is estimated to be around $92,819 during this period. Census data indicates that incomes in Mortdale - Oatley cluster around the 73rd percentile nationally for household, family, and personal incomes. The earnings profile shows that 31.0% of individuals in the area earn between $1,500 to $2,999 per week, with a total of 4,720 people falling within this income bracket. The district demonstrates significant affluence, with 34.4% earning over $3,000 per week. This supports the provision of premium retail and service offerings in the area. Housing accounts for 15.0% of total income in Mortdale - Oatley. Residents' strong earnings rank them within the 77th percentile nationally for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile, indicating a high level of prosperity among its residents.

Mortdale - Oatley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mortdale-Oatley, as per the latest Census data, 53.6% of dwellings were houses while 46.3% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 52.1% are houses and 47.9% are other dwellings. Homeownership in Mortdale-Oatley stood at 35.8%, with mortgaged properties at 33.1% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, surpassing Sydney's average of $2,466. Median weekly rent in the area was $420 compared to Sydney's $440. Nationally, Mortdale-Oatley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mortdale - Oatley has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.9% of all households, including 38.5% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households consist of the remaining 26.1%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Mortdale - Oatley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Mortdale-Oatley shows a significant advantage compared to broader benchmarks. As of 2016, 40.5% of residents aged 15 and above held university qualifications, surpassing the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. This high level of educational attainment is led by bachelor degrees at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 10.7% and graduate diplomas at 2.9%. Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 16.6%.

Educational participation is notably high in the area, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of 2016. This includes primary education (9.6%), secondary education (7.0%), and tertiary education (6.4%). Mortdale-Oatley's three schools have a combined enrollment reaching 2,065 students while the area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA value of 1093. Education provision is balanced with two primary schools and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mortdale-Oatley has 60 active public transport stops. These are a mix of train and bus stops, served by 23 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 5,072 weekly passenger trips.

Residential accessibility to transport is rated excellent, with residents typically located 144 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 724 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mortdale - Oatley's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics indicates robust performance across Mortdale - Oatley, with low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is notably high at approximately 62% of the total population (9,501 people), compared to 53.6% in Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%. Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.3% and 5.9% of residents respectively.

A significant majority, 75.3%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.2% across Greater Sydney. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,743 people), lower than the 19.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors align with those of the general population.

Mortdale - Oatley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mortdale-Oatley's cultural diversity is high, with 34.7% of its population born overseas and 37.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mortdale-Oatley, comprising 55.6% of people. Hinduism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, making up 4.3% versus 6.5%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups are English (19.0%), Australian (18.4%), and Chinese (13.6%). English and Australian ancestry are substantially higher than regional averages, while Chinese is notably lower. Other ethnic groups with notable divergences include Macedonian (3.4% vs 2.3%), Croatian (1.5% vs 1.2%), and Greek (3.9% vs 5.6%).

Mortdale - Oatley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Mortdale - Oatley is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age group is notably over-represented in Mortdale-Oatley at 10.2%, compared to Greater Sydney's average. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 12.6%. Post-census data from 2021 shows that the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.6% to 12.9%, while the 35-44 age group has declined from 15.2% to 14.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Mortdale-Oatley, with the 75-84 age group expected to grow by 64% (553 people), reaching 1,420 from 866. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 72% of this growth. Meanwhile, the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.