Mortdale - Oatley
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mortdale - Oatley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mortdale-Oatley's population is approximately 15,230 as of November 2025. This figure shows an increase of 515 people, a 3.5% rise since the 2021 Census which recorded 14,715 residents. The growth is inferred from ABS's June 2024 estimate of 15,220 and 42 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density of 3,430 persons per square kilometer, placing Mortdale-Oatley in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The area's growth rate of 3.5% is within 2.0 percentage points of its SA4 region's 5.5%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 82.3% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on current demographic trends and latest population numbers, Mortdale-Oatley is expected to grow by 1,565 persons by 2041, an increase of 10.2% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mortdale - Oatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mortdale-Oatley has granted approximately 35 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling 179 homes. In the current financial year FY26, 12 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.1 person per year moves to the area for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new homes is $453,000, slightly above the regional average.

This financial year has seen $780,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Mortdale-Oatley records around 63% of building activity per person and ranks among the 45th percentile nationally when assessed for buyer choice. This suggests relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing dwellings. The area shows a mix of new standalone homes (53%) and townhouses or apartments (47%), offering options across different price points.

Mortdale-Oatley indicates a mature market with approximately 383 people per approval. Population forecasts project an increase of 1,552 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and price increases.

Mortdale - Oatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 25 projects likely affecting this area. Notable ones include Mortdale Maintenance Centre Upgrade, Enterprise Industrial Estate Mortdale, Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan, and Mortdale RSL Redevelopment, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mortdale - Oatley performing better than 85% of local markets assessed across Australia

Mortdale-Oatley has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% in June 2025, below Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.5%. As of June 2025, 9,722 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, and workforce participation at 63.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training, the latter being particularly notable with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Construction, however, is under-represented at 7.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 8.6%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force increased by 2.6%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with a rise in unemployment of 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Mortdale-Oatley's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Mortdale - Oatley's median income among taxpayers is $59,103. The average income in the area was $83,923 during this period. This places Mortdale - Oatley among the highest income areas in Australia. In comparison, Greater Sydney had a median income of $56,994 and an average income of $80,856 in financial year 2022. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since then, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $66,556 and the average income around $94,506 as of September 2025. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Mortdale - Oatley cluster around the 73rd percentile nationally. The earnings profile reveals that 31.0% of individuals (4,721 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, reflecting a pattern seen in the surrounding region where 30.9% also occupy this earnings band. Mortdale - Oatley demonstrates considerable affluence with 34.4% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income in the area, while strong earnings rank residents within the 77th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mortdale - Oatley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Mortdale-Oatley, as per the latest Census, consisted of 53.6% houses and 46.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mortdale-Oatley was at 35.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (33.1%) or rented (31.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,466. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Sydney metro's $440. Nationally, Mortdale-Oatley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mortdale - Oatley has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.9% of all households, including 38.5% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.1%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.7 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Mortdale - Oatley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Mortdale-Oatley significantly exceeds broader benchmarks. As of 2021, 40.5% of residents aged 15 years and above hold university qualifications, compared to 30.4% nationally and 32.2% in NSW. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 26.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 28.0% of residents aged 15 years and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.4% and certificates for 16.6%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education. Mortdale-Oatley's three schools have a combined enrollment reaching 2,065 students, according to the most recent figures. The area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions, with an ICSEA index of 1093. Education provision is balanced, with two primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mortdale-Oatley has 60 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 23 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,072 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 144 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 724 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 84 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mortdale - Oatley's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Mortdale-Oatley. Prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 62% of the total population (9,503 people), compared to 53.6% across Greater Sydney and a national average of 55.3%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.3 and 5.9% of residents respectively. 75.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.2% across Greater Sydney. The area has 18.0% of residents aged 65 and over (2,744 people), which is lower than the 19.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Mortdale - Oatley is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mortdale-Oatley has a high level of cultural diversity, with 34.7% of its population born overseas and 37.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Mortdale-Oatley, accounting for 55.6% of the population. Hinduism, however, is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 4.3% versus 2.8%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (19.0%), Australian (18.4%), and Chinese (13.6%). English and Australian groups are substantially higher than regional averages of 13.2% and 12.6%, respectively, while Chinese is notably lower than the regional average of 23.9%. Other ethnic groups with notable representation include Macedonian at 3.4% versus a regional average of 2.3%, Croatian at 1.5% versus 1.2%, and Greek at 3.9% compared to 5.6%.

Mortdale - Oatley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Mortdale-Oatley is 39 years, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the 65-74 age group is notably higher at 10.2% locally, while the 25-34 age group is lower at 12.6%. According to data from the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.6% to 12.9%, and the 35-44 age group has declined from 15.2% to 14.0%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are forecast for Mortdale-Oatley. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 64%, reaching 1,420 people from 866. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 72% of the anticipated population growth. Conversely, the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to experience population declines.