Mortdale - Oatley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Mortdale - Oatley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Mortdale - Oatley's population was around 15,310 as of May 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 595 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,715. The change is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 15,297 in June 2025 and an additional 42 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 3,448 persons per square kilometer, placing Mortdale - Oatley in the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch's assessment. The area's 4.0% growth since census is within 2.5 percentage points of its SA4 region (6.5%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 86.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median nationally, with the area expected to expand by 1,351 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a gain of 8.7% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Mortdale - Oatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Mortdale-Oatley averaged approximately 35 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, with a total of 179 homes approved during this period. In FY26 up to June, there have been 34 new dwelling approvals. The average number of new residents arriving per new home constructed over these five years was 0.1.

This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and facilitating population growth beyond current projections. The average value of new properties being constructed is $453,000, which is slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments. In FY26 up to June, commercial approvals amounted to $780,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus in Mortdale-Oatley. Compared to Greater Sydney, Mortdale-Oatley has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 44th percentile nationally when measured by area assessed.

This suggests more limited choices for buyers, supporting demand for existing homes. The lower activity levels reflect market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity in Mortdale-Oatley shows a mix of housing types: approximately 53.0% detached dwellings and 47.0% townhouses or apartments. This expanding range of medium-density options caters to various price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. The area indicates a mature market with around 383 people per approval. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Mortdale-Oatley is projected to grow by 1,338 residents by 2041. Building activity appears to be keeping pace with these growth projections, although buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Mortdale - Oatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Twenty-five projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Mortdale RSL Redevelopment, Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan, 70-76 Pitt Street Mortdale, and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Mortdale - Oatley performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Mortdale-Oatley has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 2.0% as of December 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.2%.

As of December 2025, 9,817 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 2.1%, below Greater Sydney's rate, and workforce participation at 78.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 52.4% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training, with notable concentration in the latter, being 1.2 times the regional average. Construction has limited presence at 7.1%, compared to the regional average of 8.6%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data on working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 5.2% while labour force grew by 5.3%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Greater Sydney experienced employment growth of 2.2% and labour force growth of 2.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mortdale-Oatley's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 7.0% over five years and 14.2% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Mortdale - Oatley SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $63,022 and an average of $87,208. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $69,526 (median) and $96,208 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Mortdale - Oatley cluster around the 73rd percentile nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 31.0% of locals (4,746 people), earning between $1,500 and $2,999 annually. This aligns with the surrounding region where this cohort also represents 30.9%. Strong earnings are reflected in 34.4% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 15.0% of income, while strong earnings rank residents within the 76th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Mortdale - Oatley displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mortdale-Oatley, as per the latest Census data, 53.6% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 46.3% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mortdale-Oatley stood at 35.8%, with mortgaged properties at 33.1% and rented ones at 31.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Weekly rent was recorded at $420, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Mortdale-Oatley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Mortdale - Oatley has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 73.9% of all households, including 38.5% couples with children, 24.4% couples without children, and 9.6% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.1%, with lone person households at 23.6% and group households comprising 2.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Mortdale - Oatley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Mortdale-Oatley has a notably high educational attainment among residents aged 15 and above, with 40.5% holding university qualifications, surpassing the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%. This is primarily due to Bachelor degrees (26.9%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (10.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 28.0% of residents holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.4%) and certificates (16.6%). Educational participation is high in the area, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.0% in secondary education, and 6.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mortdale-Oatley has 70 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 24 routes, facilitating 5,209 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent with residents typically located 144 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to the residential nature of the area. Car remains the dominant mode at 70%, with train at 20% and walking at 4%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 52.4% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 744 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 74 weekly trips per individual stop.

Mortdale - Oatley's residents are extremely healthy with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

AreaSearch's health metrics analysis indicates robust performance across Mortdale - Oatley. The prevalence of common health conditions is very low across all age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 63% of the total population (9,691 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 59.9%, and the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 6.3% and 5.9% of residents respectively. 75.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Working-age residents exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. The area has 18.2% of residents aged 65 and over (2,786 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.5%. Health outcomes among seniors align with national rankings, broadly similar to the general population.

Mortdale - Oatley was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Mortdale-Oatley has a significant cultural diversity, with 34.7% of its population born overseas and 37.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Mortdale-Oatley, accounting for 55.6% of the population. Hinduism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 4.3% versus 2.9%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (19.0%), Australian (18.4%), and Chinese (13.6%), with Chinese being substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Other ethnicities with notable divergences include Macedonian at 3.4% versus 0.4%, Croatian at 1.5% versus 0.7%, and Greek at 3.9% versus 1.9%.

Mortdale - Oatley's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Mortdale - Oatley is 39 years, which is higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to the national average of 38 years. The 65-74 age cohort is notably over-represented at 10.2% locally compared to Greater Sydney's average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 13.0%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has grown from 11.6% to 13.3%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 4.7% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has declined from 15.2% to 13.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Mortdale - Oatley. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 56%, reaching 1,398 people from 898. Residents aged 65 and older will represent 72% of the anticipated growth. However, the 15-24 and 0-4 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.