Lugarno

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lugarno reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population for the Lugarno statistical area is around 5,858, a decrease of 11 people from the 2021 Census figure of 5,869. This change, inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,737 based on ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date, results in a density ratio of 2,185 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Lugarno has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041.

Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Lugarno is expected to grow by 697 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 15.3% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lugarno according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Lugarno has averaged approximately two new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated thirteen homes. In FY26 so far, three approvals have been recorded. On average, twenty people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25. This supply lagging demand suggests heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures.

New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $539,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, $446,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has significantly less development activity, which is 88.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, Lugarno's development activity is also lower, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 93.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 2414 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lugarno is expected to grow by 895 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lugarno has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region can significantly be influenced by alterations in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Three key projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting this area: Georges River College Peakhurst Campus Upgrades, Henry Lawson Drive Stage 1B Upgrade, Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade, and Blaxland Riverside Estate. The following list details these projects, highlighting those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Lugarno well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Lugarno has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate is 3.0%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 3,612 residents in work while the unemployment rate is 1.2% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical, and education & training. The area has particular employment specialization in education & training, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 12.0% versus the regional average of 14.1%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 3.5% alongside labour force increasing by 4.0%, resulting in unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, the labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. To provide broader context, state-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Lugarno. These projections suggest national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lugarno's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Lugarno has a higher income level than the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Lugarno is $55,817, with an average income of $74,022. These figures compare to those for Greater Sydney, which are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $60,762 and the average income $80,580 by September 2025. Census data indicates that Lugarno's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly figure of $2,721. Income distribution shows that 30.4% of the population (1,780 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - $2,999 range dominates with 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners, at 45.3% above $3,000 per week, suggests strong economic capacity throughout Lugarno. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Lugarno is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lugarno, as per the latest Census, 92.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.2% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan area's figures of 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lugarno stood at 48.0%, with mortgaged properties making up 43.0% and rented dwellings accounting for 9.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lugarno was $3,000, surpassing Sydney metro's average of $2,466. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Lugarno was recorded at $560, compared to Sydney metro's $440. Nationally, Lugarno's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Lugarno features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.7% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 13.3%, with lone person households at 12.2% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Lugarno shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Lugarno, university qualification levels stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (23.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are common among residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas held by 12.9% and certificates by 20.2%, totaling 33.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.5% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Lugarno shows 40 active transport stops operating, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 13 different routes, offering a total of 729 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 104 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Lugarno is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Lugarno shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 56% (~3291 people) have private health cover, higher than the Greater Sydney average. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (5.6%), while 73.4% report no medical ailments compared to 77.2% in Greater Sydney. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 21.6% (1265 people), higher than the Greater Sydney average of 19.1%. Senior health outcomes are notably strong, outperforming general population metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Lugarno was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lugarno's population showed higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 23.1% born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Lugarno, at 71.3%, compared to 49.7% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (21.0%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (9.6%).

These figures differed from regional averages: English was substantially higher than the regional average of 13.2%, Australian was also higher at 12.6%, while Other was notably lower at 15.7%. Notable overrepresentations included Greek (7.9% vs regional 5.6%), Macedonian (3.1% vs 2.3%), and Croatian (1.6% vs 1.2%).

Lugarno hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Lugarno is 45 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the age group 15-24 has increased from 13.3% to 14.2%, while the age group 45-54 has decreased from 15.0% to 14.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Lugarno's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 59% (263 people), reaching a total of 709 from the previous count of 445. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 71% of the total population growth, reflecting Lugarno's aging demographic profile. Conversely, both the age groups 35-44 and 0-4 are projected to have reduced numbers.