Lugarno

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lugarno reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As per ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation for the suburb of Lugarno, the estimated population as of May 2026 is around 5761. This figure reflects a decrease of 108 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5869. The decrease is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 5725 in June 2025, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional validated new address since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2149 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 92% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Lugarno is expected to grow by 633 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 10.4% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Lugarno is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Lugarno averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 12 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. Population decline in recent years has seen adequate development activity relative to population, benefiting buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $539,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties.

This financial year, commercial development approvals totalled $446,000, reflecting Lugarno's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has significantly less development activity (89.0% below regional average per person), which typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a shift from Lugarno's existing housing (currently 93.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 2307 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. By 2041, Lugarno is expected to grow by 597 residents (latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate).

At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lugarno has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that could affect this region. Notable projects include Georges River College Peakhurst Campus Upgrades, Henry Lawson Drive Stage 1B Upgrade, Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade, and Blaxland Riverside Estate. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Lugarno well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Lugarno's workforce is highly educated with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 2.9% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.4%. As of December 2025, 3,383 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% lower than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation stood at 72.3%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 68.8%. A significant 53.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors are health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Lugarno has a notable specialization in education & training (1.3 times the regional level) but lower representation in health care & social assistance (12.0% vs 14.1%).

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by working population counts versus resident population. Over the past year, employment and labour force increased by 3.4%, while unemployment remained stable. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2%, labour force grow by 2.3%, and marginal unemployment increase. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Lugarno's employment could grow by 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to its current employment mix.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Lugarno suburb has a higher income level than the national average, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. Lugarno's median income among taxpayers is $55,817 and average income stands at $74,022, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. By March 2026, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% indicate median income will be approximately $61,577 and average income around $81,661. Census data shows household incomes rank at the 94th percentile ($2,721 weekly). Income distribution in Lugarno differs from regional levels; 30.4% of residents earn over $4,000 annually compared to 30.9% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 regionally. High earners make up 45.3% of the population in Lugarno, indicating strong economic capacity. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting robust purchasing power. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Lugarno is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lugarno's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.8% houses and 7.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lugarno stood at 48.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 9.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Lugarno was $560, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lugarno's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Lugarno features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.7% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.3%, with lone person households at 12.2% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lugarno shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Lugarno, university qualification levels stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (23.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 33.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 20.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 40 active stops operating in Lugarno, with a mix of bus services. These are served by 13 routes, providing 729 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 182 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Car remains dominant at 87%, while train use stands at 9%. Average vehicle ownership is 2.0 per dwelling, above regional average.

In 2021 Census data (which may reflect COVID-19 conditions), 53.2% of residents work from home. Service frequency averages 104 trips daily across all routes, equating to about 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lugarno's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Lugarno. AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates indicates very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 56% of the total population (~3,236 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.6% and 5.6% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 73.4%, report being completely free of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents display low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.5% (1,238 people), compared to 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are notably strong, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Lugarno was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lugarno had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 23.1% of its population born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Lugarno, accounting for 71.3% of its population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (21.0%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (9.6%), which was lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Notably, Greek (7.9%) and Macedonian (3.1%) populations were overrepresented in Lugarno compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively. Croatian population was also higher at 1.6% compared to the regional average of 0.7%.

Lugarno hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Lugarno is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (15.2%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (9.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 grew from 13.3% to 14.8%, while the population aged 45-54 declined from 15.0% to 13.4%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Lugarno's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 46%, reaching 705 people from 483. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting Lugarno's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.