Lugarno

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lugarno reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

The population of Lugarno, as estimated based on ABS updates and AreaSearch validation, is around 5,942 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 73 people from the 2021 Census count of 5,869 residents. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,877, derived from examining ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validating addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,217 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Lugarno has shown consistent growth with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming the SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 92% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from these aggregations for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest a population increase just below the median of Australian statistical areas, with the suburb expected to grow by 690 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 13.5% over these 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lugarno according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lugarno averaged around 3 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 17 homes. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. This results in an average of 15.3 people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply lagging demand. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $539,000.

In FY-26, there have been $338,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity compared to Greater Sydney, where Lugarno has significantly less development activity (85.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction typically reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings, which is also lower than nationally, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 25.0% detached houses and 75.0% townhouses or apartments, a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 93.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. The location has approximately 6036 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Lugarno is expected to grow by 804 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Looking ahead, Lugarno is expected to grow by 804 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lugarno has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified three such projects that are expected to impact the area: Georges River College Peakhurst Campus Upgrades, Henry Lawson Drive Stage 1B Upgrade, Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade, and Blaxland Riverside Estate. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Lugarno ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Lugarno has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate in Lugarno was 2.9% as of June 2025, which is 1.3% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.1%. Out of the 3,628 residents who are currently employed, many work in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training sectors. Notably, Lugarno has a strong specialization in education & training with an employment share that is 1.3 times higher than the regional average. However, health care & social assistance shows lower representation at 12.0% compared to the regional average of 14.1%.

The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. In the 12-month period ending in June 2025, employment increased by 2.1%, while the labour force grew by 2.6%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.6%, the labour force grew by 2.9%, and unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points. According to Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lugarno's current employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by 6.9% over the next five years and 13.9% over the next decade.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Lugarno's median income among taxpayers was $55,817 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $74,022 during the same period. Comparing these figures with Greater Sydney's median and average incomes of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively, Lugarno's income levels were higher nationally. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $62,856 (median) and $83,356 (average). Census data indicates that Lugarno's household incomes rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,721. In terms of income distribution, 30.4% of Lugarno's population falls within the $4000+ income range, differing from regional patterns where the $1,500 - 2,999 range dominates at 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners in Lugarno, with 45.3% above $3,000/week, suggests strong economic capacity throughout the area. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Lugarno is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lugarno, as per the latest Census data, 92.8% of dwellings were houses while 7.2% comprised semi-detached units, apartments, and other dwelling types. This differed from Sydney metro's dwelling composition of 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lugarno stood at 48.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 9.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, surpassing Sydney metro's average of $2,466. The median weekly rent figure in Lugarno was recorded at $560, compared to Sydney metro's $440. Nationally, Lugarno's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Lugarno features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.7% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.3%, with lone person households at 12.2% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Lugarno shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Lugarno are at 33.8%, slightly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 23.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 7.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.9%) and certificates (20.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.5% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 6.2% in tertiary education. Lugarno Public School serves the local community, enrolling 265 students. The school focuses on primary education, with an ICSEA score of 1101, indicating significant socio-educational advantages and academic achievement. Secondary options are available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited, with 4.5 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 11.6, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Lugarno shows that there are currently 32 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 13 individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 561 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to transport for residents is rated as excellent, with an average distance of 183 meters to the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 80 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Lugarno is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Lugarno shows above-average health outcomes with both young and elderly age groups experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is high at approximately 56% of the total population (around 3,338 people), compared to 53.6% across Greater Sydney.

The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.6 and 5.6% of residents respectively, while 73.4% reported being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 77.2% across Greater Sydney. As of 2021, Lugarno has 21.6% of its population aged 65 and over (1,283 people), which is higher than the 19.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors in Lugarno are particularly strong, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Lugarno was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lugarno's population shows higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets, with 23.1% born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lugarno, accounting for 71.3%, which differs from Greater Sydney's average of 49.7%. The top three ancestry groups are English (21.0%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (9.6%).

These figures differ notably from regional averages: English is substantially higher (13.2%), Australian is also higher (12.6%), while Other is lower (15.7%). Specifically, Greek (7.9%) and Macedonian (3.1%) groups are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 5.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Croatian representation at 1.6% is slightly higher than the regional average of 1.2%.

Lugarno hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Lugarno is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.4%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has grown from 13.3% to 14.2%, while the population aged 45-54 has declined from 15.0% to 14.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Lugarno's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 57% (258 people), reaching a total of 710 from the previous figure of 451. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 74% of the total population growth, reflecting Lugarno's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 5-14 and 0-4 age groups are projected to have reduced numbers.