Lugarno

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lugarno reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of Lugarno is around 5,858, a decrease of 11 people since the 2021 Census which reported 5,869 residents. This estimation is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS' ERP data release from June 2024, indicating a resident population of 5,737 plus one validated new address. The suburb's population density is 2,185 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Lugarno has shown resilience with a compound annual growth rate of 1.2%, outperforming its SA3 area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 92.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For projections until 2041, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2 level projections released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas.

Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregated projections, Lugarno is expected to grow by 710 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 15.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lugarno according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Lugarno has averaged approximately 2 new dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 13 homes. As of FY-26, 3 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 20 people move to the area annually for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting demand outpaces supply, which may lead to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $539,000, indicating a focus on premium segment developments.

This financial year has seen $446,000 in commercial development approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has significantly less development activity, 88.0% below the regional average per person. This constrained new construction may reinforce demand and pricing for existing dwellings. Nationally, Lugarno also reflects lower development activity, potentially indicating market maturity or development constraints. New developments consist of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 93.0% houses) may indicate decreasing availability of developable sites and changing lifestyles. The location has approximately 2414 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market.

By 2041, Lugarno is projected to grow by 906 residents, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lugarno has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified three projects that could impact the area. Key projects are Georges River College Peakhurst Campus Upgrades, Henry Lawson Drive Stage 1B Upgrade, Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade, and Blaxland Riverside Estate. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Lugarno well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Lugarno has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate was 3.0% as of September 2025, which is lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.6%.

As of the same date, 3,611 residents were employed while the workforce participation rate was 77.1%, higher than Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 53.2% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, professional & technical services, and education & training. Lugarno has a notable specialization in education & training with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level, but lower representation in health care & social assistance at 12.0% compared to the regional average of 14.1%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.6% while the labour force grew by 4.0%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.4 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment and labour force growth of 2.1% and 2.4% respectively, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is projected to expand by 6.6%, and over ten years by 13.7%. Applying these projections to Lugarno's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by approximately 6.9% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Lugarno's suburb income level is higher than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ending June 2023. Lugarno's median income among taxpayers is $55,817 and the average income stands at $74,022, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $60,762 (median) and $80,580 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household incomes rank exceptionally at the 94th percentile ($2,721 weekly). Looking at income distribution, 30.4% of the population (1,780 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from patterns across regional levels where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.9%. The substantial proportion of high earners (45.3% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Lugarno. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Lugarno is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Lugarno, as per the latest Census evaluation, 92.8% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 7.2% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lugarno stood at 48.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 9.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent in Lugarno was $560, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lugarno's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Lugarno features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.7% of all households, including 47.4% that are couples with children, 29.0% that are couples without children, and 9.2% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.3%, with lone person households at 12.2% and group households comprising 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lugarno shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Lugarno, university qualification levels stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (23.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications: advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 20.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 8.5% in primary, 8.4% in secondary, and 6.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Lugarno shows that there are 40 active transport stops currently operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 13 individual routes providing service. This results in 729 weekly passenger trips across all routes. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 182 meters from the nearest stop. As Lugarno is primarily residential, most commuting is outward-bound. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport for residents, used by 87% of them, while only 9% use the train.

The average vehicle ownership per dwelling in Lugarno is 2.0, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, at 53.2%, work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 104 trips per day, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lugarno's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Lugarno. AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence found very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is high at approximately 56% of the total population (~3,291 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (5.6%). 73.4% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 74.6% figure for Greater Sydney. Working-age residents have low chronic condition prevalence. Lugarno has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.2% (1,300 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are strong, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Lugarno was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lugarno has a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 23.1% of its population born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lugarno, making up 71.3% of its population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Lugarno are English (21.0%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (9.6%), which is lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Notably, Greek (7.9%) and Macedonian (3.1%) populations are overrepresented compared to their respective regional averages of 1.9% and 0.4%, while Croatian population (1.6%) is also slightly higher than the regional average of 0.7%.

Lugarno hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Lugarno is 45 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (14.5%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.4%). According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 13.3% to 14.2%, while the population aged 45-54 has decreased from 15.0% to 14.0%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Lugarno's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 54% (250 people), reaching 713 from 462. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 66% of total population growth, reflecting Lugarno's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the population aged 35-44 is projected to decrease by 2 residents.