Lugarno

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lugarno reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Lugarno is around 5,858, reflecting a decrease of 11 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 5,869. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,737 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. The population density is approximately 2,185 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Recent population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing around 92.0% of overall population gains. For projections up to 2041, AreaSearch utilises ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Lugarno is expected to grow by 643 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of approximately 8.9% in total over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lugarno according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Lugarno averaged around 2 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 12 homes. So far in FY-26, 2 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 21.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built.

This indicates supply is substantially lagging demand, typically leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $539,000, reflecting a developer focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $446,000, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has significantly less development activity (89.0% below regional average per person), which usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This is also lower than nationally, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. New development consists of 50.0% detached houses and 50.0% townhouses or apartments, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 93.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

The location has approximately 2413 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Looking ahead, Lugarno is expected to grow by 522 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Lugarno has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified three projects that could impact the area's performance: Georges River College Peakhurst Campus Upgrades, Henry Lawson Drive Stage 1B Upgrade, Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade, and Blaxland Riverside Estate. These are the key projects with potential significance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Lugarno well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Lugarno has a highly educated workforce with professional services being prominently represented. The unemployment rate in Lugarno is 2.8%, which is lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.2%. Over the past year, ending December 2025, employment growth was estimated at 5.4%.

As of that date, 3636 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.4% below Greater Sydney's rate. Workforce participation in Lugarno is high at 77.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 53.2% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Employment among Lugarno residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance (12%), professional & technical services (16%), and education & training (14%).

Notably, the area has a high specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance shows lower representation compared to the regional average. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. In the 12-month period ending December 2025, Lugarno saw employment increase by 5.4% and labour force grow by 5.2%, leading to a slight decrease in unemployment of 0.1 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney, where employment rose by 2.2%, the labour force grew by 2.3%, and unemployment rose marginally. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, Lugarno's employment should increase by 6.9% and over ten years by 13.9%. These projections are based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific growth rates against Lugarno's current employment mix.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Lugarno has a higher income level than the national average, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. In Lugarno, the median income among taxpayers is $55,817 and the average income stands at $74,022. For Greater Sydney, these figures are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Lugarno would be approximately $60,762 (median) and $80,580 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household incomes in Lugarno rank at the 94th percentile with a weekly income of $2,721. In Lugarno, 30.4% of the population (1,780 individuals) fall within the $4000+ income range, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 range dominates with 30.9%. A substantial proportion of high earners (45.3% above $3,000/week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Lugarno. After housing costs, residents retain 87.2% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Lugarno is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lugarno's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 92.8% houses and 7.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasted with Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lugarno stood at 48.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.0% and rented ones at 9.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure for Lugarno was $560, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Lugarno's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Lugarno features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.7% of all households, including 47.4% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 9.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.3%, with lone person households at 12.2% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Lugarno shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Lugarno stand at 33.8%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (23.8%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 20.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.5% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 6.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lugarno has 40 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 13 different routes that together facilitate 729 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 182 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents in this primarily residential area commute outward, with cars being the dominant mode of transportation at 87%. Train usage accounts for 9% of commutes. On average, there are 2.0 vehicles per dwelling in Lugarno, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 53.2% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 104 trips per day, resulting in approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Lugarno's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data for Lugarno shows excellent results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The area has a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups.

Private health cover is found to be very high at approximately 56% of the total population, which amounts to around 3,291 people. This compares to a rate of 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions in Lugarno are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.6 and 5.6% of residents respectively. A significant majority, 73.4%, report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Working-age residents in Lugarno exhibit low chronic condition prevalence. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 22.2%, with around 1,300 people falling into this age group, compared to 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors in Lugarno are notably strong and align broadly with national rankings for the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Lugarno was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lugarno had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 23.1% of its population born overseas and 27.3% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Lugarno, making up 71.3% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (21.0%), Australian (19.3%), and Other (9.6%), which was lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Notably, Greek (7.9%) and Macedonian (3.1%) populations were higher in Lugarno compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively. Croatian population was also relatively high at 1.6%, compared to the regional average of 0.7%.

Lugarno hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Lugarno is 45 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, Lugarno has a higher proportion of residents aged 55-64 (15.0%) but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.7%). According to the 2021 Census, the 15-24 age group increased from 13.3% to 14.6% of Lugarno's population, while the 45-54 age group declined from 15.0% to 13.6%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Lugarno's age structure. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 44%, reaching 693 people from 480. Notably, the combined age groups of 65 and above will account for 77% of total population growth, reflecting Lugarno's aging demographic profile. In contrast, both the 0-4 and 5-14 age groups are projected to decrease in numbers.