Padstow

Padstow has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Padstow's estimated population is around 14,906. This shows an increase of 889 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,017. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 14,007, following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024, and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,786 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow's growth rate of 6.3% since census is within 1.2 percentage points of the SA4 region (7.5%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilised. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Padstow is expected to grow by approximately 660 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 1.0% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Padstow has had around 100 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, approximately 500 homes have been approved, with another 52 so far in FY-26. This averages out to about 0.1 new resident per year arriving for each new home over these five years.

New construction is matching or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and supporting population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $482,000, indicating developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This year alone, $2.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has slightly more development activity, at 28.0% above the regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

Recent construction comprises 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This is a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 68.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. Padstow reflects a low-density area, with around 141 people per approval. Given stable or declining population forecasts, the area may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Evergreen Industrial, Uranus Road Culvert Upgrade, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, and 63-67 Marco Avenue Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Padstow remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Padstow has an educated workforce with professional services well-represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.4% in the past year, with estimated employment growth of 3.7%.

As of September 2025, 7879 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%. Workforce participation stood at 55.4%, below Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries for Padstow residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area specializes in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services were under-represented at 8.5%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on census data. In the year to September 2025, Padstow's employment increased by 3.7% while labour force grew by 4.1%, raising unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's employment growth of 2.1%. Statewide in NSW, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2260 jobs) to November 25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that Padstow's median income is $50,220 and average income is $62,480. This is below Greater Sydney's median of $60,817 and average of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,669 (median) and $68,016 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Padstow's household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,891 weekly), with personal income at the 37th percentile. The largest income segment comprises 31.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (4,740 residents). High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile. Padstow's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow, as per the most recent Census evaluation, 67.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 32.3% comprising semi-detached houses, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metro's figures of 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,400, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent figure for Padstow was $470, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.2% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households making up 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Padstow performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Educational qualifications in Padstow trail regional benchmarks, with 30.1% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney as of the latest data from 2020. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 6.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.1%. Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 29.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 18.4%. Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the 2021 census data.

This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis shows that Padstow has 87 active transport stops, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 35 individual routes, offering a total of 4,412 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 630 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 50 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padstow shows superior health outcomes among both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 52% (~7,700 people) have private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 49.5%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7%) and asthma (6%), while 73.8% report no medical ailments, close to Greater Sydney's 75.8%. Padstow has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 17.9% (2,668 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Health outcomes among seniors in Padstow are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a significant cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 48.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Padstow, practiced by 54.0% of people. However, Buddhism is more prevalent in Padstow compared to Greater Sydney, with 6.2% versus 6.7%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.7%), Australian (15.2%), and Chinese (14.3%), which is higher than the regional average of 7.6%. Notably, Lebanese (5.3%) and Vietnamese (4.4%) populations in Padstow are higher compared to their respective regional averages of 14.9% and 8.5%. Macedonian ancestry also has a slightly higher representation at 1.9% versus the regional average of 1.7%.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years. It is also marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, Padstow has an over-representation of the 55-64 cohort (13.4%) and an under-representation of the 25-34 year-olds (13.1%). Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 5.9%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Padstow's age profile will change significantly. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 379 people (43%), from 879 to 1,259. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 96% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.