Padstow

Padstow has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Padstow's population is estimated at approximately 14,564 people. This figure represents an increase of 547 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 14,017 people in the suburb. AreaSearch validated this estimate using resident population data from June 2025's ERP release by the ABS and additional 78 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,722 persons per square kilometer for Padstow, placing it among the upper quartile nationally according to AreaSearch assessments. The suburb experienced a growth rate of 3.9% between the Census and May 2026, which is within 1.5 percentage points of its SA3 area's growth (5.4%). Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of Padstow's population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 using 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Padstow is expected to grow by approximately 647 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 4.1% over the 16-year period. This growth rate aligns with the median expected for statistical areas across the nation.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Padstow has around 100 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 501 homes were approved, with 74 so far in FY-26. Despite population decline over this period, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, indicating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average value of $482,000, suggesting developers target the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year, $2.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has slightly more development (28.0% above regional average per person over the 5-year period), maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 23.0% detached dwellings and 77.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

The current housing mix is approximately 68.0% houses. Padstow has around 141 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Future projections estimate Padstow adding 591 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 16 projects that could impact this region. Notable projects include Evergreen Industrial, Uranus Road Culvert Upgrade, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, and 63-67 Marco Avenue Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Padstow remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Padstow has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 4.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.7%. As of December 2025, 8,040 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.5%, slightly above Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 68.8%. According to Census responses, 46.7% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Padstow specializes in transport, postal & warehousing with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 8.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 5.7%, matching labour force growth and keeping unemployment relatively stable at 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's industry mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

In financial year ending June 2023, Padstow suburb had a median taxpayer income of $50,220 and an average income of $62,480. These figures are lower than the national averages of $60,817 for Greater Sydney and $83,003 nationally. By March 2026, estimated median income would be approximately $55,403 and average income $68,928, based on a 10.32% growth in wages since June 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Padstow's household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,891 weekly) and personal income at the 37th percentile. The income distribution shows that 31.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week, which is consistent with the broader metropolitan region's trend of 30.9%. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income in Padstow, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Padstow, as per the latest Census, consisted of 67.7% houses and 32.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow was at 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, below the Sydney metro average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Padstow was $470, matching the Sydney metro figure. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,400 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 76.2% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Padstow performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Padstow trail regional benchmarks, 30.1% of residents aged 15+ hold university degrees, compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This indicates a potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.0%, while certificates make up 18.4%.

Educational participation is high in Padstow trail, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow has 89 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 35 routes facilitating 4,412 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. The area is predominantly residential; most commuters travel outward. Car use dominates at 78%, with 14% using trains. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.3.

According to the 2021 Census, 46.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 630 trips daily across all routes, equating to roughly 49 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age groups have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,523 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (5.9%), with 73.8% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Under-65 health outcomes are better than average. Padstow has 18.4% of residents aged 65 and over (2,679 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow's cultural diversity is notable, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 48.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Padstow, accounting for 54.0% of the population. However, Buddhism stands out as overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 6.2% versus 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.7%), Australian (15.2%), and Chinese (14.3%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Notably, Lebanese (5.3%) and Vietnamese (4.4%) populations are also overrepresented compared to their respective regional averages of 2.6% and 1.8%. Additionally, Macedonian ancestry at 1.9% is notably higher than its regional average of 0.4%.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow has a median age of 40, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years. This is also marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 cohort is notably over-represented in Padstow at 12.8%, compared to the Greater Sydney average. Conversely, the 25-34 year-olds are under-represented at 12.9%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.0% to 6.0% of Padstow's population. During this period, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 14.0% to 12.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Padstow's age profile will evolve significantly. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 408 people (47%), from 873 to 1,282. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 85% of total population growth, reflecting Padstow's aging demographic profile. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.