Padstow

Padstow has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Padstow statistical area's population is estimated at around 14,144, reflecting an increase of 127 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 14,017. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 14,046 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,643 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2-level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the Padstow (SA2) is expected to grow by 678 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 4.4% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers derived from statistical area data, Padstow has experienced approximately 99 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, around 497 homes were approved, with an additional 43 approved so far in FY-26. This averages to about 0.1 new resident per year arriving per new home over these five years.

New construction has been matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and potentially enabling population growth beyond current expectations. The average value of new dwellings developed is approximately $482,000, indicating that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year alone, $1.8 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating Padstow's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has slightly more development activity, at 27.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

Recent construction comprises approximately 23.0% detached dwellings and 77.0% medium and high-density housing. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points, suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is currently 68.0% houses, reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 154 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market. Future projections estimate Padstow adding around 625 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Evergreen Industrial, Uranus Road Culvert Upgrade, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, and 63-67 Marco Avenue Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Padstow remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate in the area is 4.4%, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7% over the past year, according to AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 7,908 residents employed, and the unemployment rate is 0.2% higher than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation in Padstow is somewhat lower at 55.4%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries employing residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area shows a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services employ only 8.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work, as indicated by the count of Census working population to local population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 3.7%, while the labour force grew by 4.1%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.1% and the labour force grow by 2.4%, with unemployment increasing by 0.2 percentage points. State-level data from NSW up to 25-Nov-25 shows employment contracted by 0.03%, losing 2,260 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 indicate that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2022, Padstow had a median income among taxpayers of $50,222 with the average being $62,481. This is lower than national averages which stood at $56,994 and $80,856 across Greater Sydney respectively during that period. Based on Wage Price Index growth rate of 12.61% since financial year ending June 2022, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $56,555 (median) and $70,360 (average). From the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 58th percentile with a weekly earning of $1,891. Personal income sits at the 37th percentile during this period. In terms of income distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 31.8% of Padstow's community (4,497 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across metropolitan regions showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income during this period. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 56th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow, as per the latest Census evaluation, 67.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 32.3% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types of dwellings. This compares to Sydney metropolitan areas where 61.5% of dwellings are houses and 38.4% are other types. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 33.0%, with mortgaged properties at 33.7% and rented dwellings at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, exceeding the Sydney metro average of $2,240. The median weekly rent in Padstow was $470, compared to $425 in Sydney metro areas. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.2% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Padstow performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Padstow trail region, 30.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. The gap suggests potential for educational development and skill enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Trade and technical skills are also prominent, with 29.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (18.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Padstow transport analysis indicates 76 active stops operating within the town, offering a mix of train and bus services. These are serviced by 36 individual routes, collectively providing 5,117 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 731 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common conditions. Around 52% (~7,306 people) have private health cover, slightly lower than the SA2 area average of 48.6%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (5.9%), while 73.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 75.8% in Greater Sydney. Around 17.9% (2,531 people) are aged 65 or over, higher than the Greater Sydney average of 15.8%. Health outcomes for seniors align with those of the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 48.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Padstow, making up 54.0% of people there, compared to 6.7% for Buddhism across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups in Padstow are Other (15.7%), Australian (15.2%), and Chinese (14.3%), which is higher than the regional average of 7.6%.

There are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups, with Lebanese at 5.3% (vs regional 14.9%), Vietnamese at 4.4% (vs regional 8.5%), and Macedonian at 1.9% (vs regional 1.7%).

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Padstow at 13.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 13.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 5.9% of Padstow's population. Conversely, the 45-54 age cohort has decreased from 12.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Padstow's age profile. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 429 people (51%), reaching 1,264 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 89% of total population growth, reflecting Padstow's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 25-34 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.