Padstow

Padstow has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Padstow's population is estimated at around 14,144 people. This reflects an increase of 127 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,017 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 14,046 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS (June 2024), along with an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 2,643 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration primarily drove population growth for the suburb, contributing approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, Padstow is expected to grow by just below the median of statistical areas across the nation by 2041, with an increase of 678 persons reflecting a gain of approximately 4.4% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Padstow shows approximately 98 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 491 homes were approved, with an additional 36 approved in FY26 so far. The average new resident arrival per new home over these years is about 0.1 per year.

This suggests that new construction is keeping pace with demand, offering buyers more options and potentially supporting population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is approximately $482,000, aligning with regional trends. Padstow has registered $1.8 million in commercial approvals this financial year, reflecting its residential nature. Comparatively, Padstow has slightly more development than the Greater Sydney average, with 25.0% more development per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

Recent construction comprises 23.0% detached dwellings and 77.0% medium to high-density housing, indicating a shift from the current housing mix of 68.0% houses. This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 159 people per dwelling approval, suggesting a low density market. Future projections estimate Padstow will add around 625 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Evergreen Industrial, Uranus Road Culvert Upgrade, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, and 63-67 Marco Avenue Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Padstow remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services being strongly represented. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 2.5%.

As of June 2025, 7,960 residents are employed, matching Greater Sydney's unemployment rate of 4.2%, but with a lower workforce participation rate of 55.4% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a strong specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.6 times the regional level), but professional & technical services employ only 8.5% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data.

In the 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 2.5%, while labour force grew by 2.7%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, with industry-specific projections suggesting Padstow's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Padstow had a median income among taxpayers of $50,222. The average income stood at $62,481. This is lower than national averages which were $56,994 and $80,856 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for median income would be approximately $56,555 as of September 2025. Average income is estimated to be around $70,360 by the same period. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 58th percentile with a weekly income of $1,891. Personal income sits at the 37th percentile. The income distribution shows that 31.8% of Padstow residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which is consistent with broader trends across metropolitan regions showing 30.9% in the same category. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 56th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow, as per the latest Census evaluation, 67.7% of dwellings were houses while 32.3% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas where 61.5% were houses and 38.4% were other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent in Padstow was $470 compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $470 compared to the national figure of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 76.2% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

Padstow performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Padstow trail's educational qualifications show that 30.1% of residents aged 15 and above have university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. This indicates potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 21.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.4% of residents holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (18.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (8.8%), secondary education (7.6%), and tertiary education (6.3%). Padstow's four schools have a combined enrollment of 968 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1032) with balanced educational opportunities. The schools include three primary and one K-12 school. However, local school capacity is limited (6.8 places per 100 residents vs regional average of 16.8), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow has 76 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 36 individual routes, collectively facilitating 5,117 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 731 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 67 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padstow shows superior health outcomes for both young and elderly populations, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,306 people), slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 48.6%.

Arthritis and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.0% and 5.9% of residents respectively. 73.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 75.8% in Greater Sydney. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.9% (2,531 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, mirroring the general population's health profile.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a notable cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 48.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Padstow, accounting for 54.0% of the population. Notably, Buddhism makes up 6.2% of Padstow's population, slightly higher than the Greater Sydney average of 6.7%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups are Other (15.7%), Australian (15.2%), and Chinese (14.3%), which is significantly higher than the regional average of 7.6%. Some ethnic groups show notable variations in representation: Lebanese at 5.3% (compared to 14.9% regionally), Vietnamese at 4.4% (vs 8.5%), and Macedonian at 1.9% (vs 1.7%).

Padstow's median age exceeds the national pattern

Padstow has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. The 55-64 age cohort is notably over-represented in Padstow at 13.4%, compared to the Greater Sydney average. Conversely, the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 13.1%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 5.9% of Padstow's population. During this period, the 45-54 age cohort has decreased from 12.9% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Padstow's age profile. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 429 people (51%), from 834 to 1,264. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 89% of total population growth, reflecting Padstow's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 25-34 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.