Padstow

Padstow has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Padstow's population is estimated at around 14,909 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 892 people (6.4%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 14,017 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 14,007 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,786 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 6.4% growth since census positions it within 1.2 percentage points of the SA4 region (7.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 81.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, lower quartile growth of Australian statistical areas is anticipated. The suburb is expected to grow by 651 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a reduction of 1.7% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers derived from statistical area data, Padstow has seen approximately 100 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 501 homes were approved, with an additional 58 approved so far in FY-26. This averages out to about 0.1 new residents arriving per year for each new home over these five years, indicating that new construction is keeping pace with or even exceeding demand.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings during this period was $482,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment. In FY-26 alone, $2.0 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting Padstow's predominantly residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has experienced slightly more development activity, with a 28.0% increase per person over the five-year period ending FY-25. This higher level of development maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values in the area. Recent construction trends show that 23.0% of approved dwellings are standalone homes, while 77.0% are medium and high-density housing.

This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable change from Padstow's existing housing stock, which is currently composed of 68.0% houses. With approximately 142 people being approved per dwelling, Padstow reflects a low-density area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Padstow may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified 17 potential impact projects. Key ones are Evergreen Industrial, Uranus Road Culvert Upgrade, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, and 63-67 Marco Avenue Residential Development. The following list details those likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Padstow remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Padstow has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 4.3% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3%. As of December 2025, 7,925 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, slightly above Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 46.7% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. The area has a specialization in transport, postal & warehousing, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented, at 8.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work. In the past year, employment increased by 5.3%, alongside labour force growth of 5.3%, keeping unemployment flat. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is an illustrative extrapolation and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Padstow is $50,220 and average income is $62,480. This contrasts with Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated current incomes are approximately $54,669 (median) and $68,016 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,891 weekly), while personal income is at the 37th percentile. Distribution shows that 31.8% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (4,741 residents), similar to metropolitan region's 30.9%. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 56th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated Padstow's dwelling structure with 67.7% houses and 32.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Sydney metro had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow was 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Padstow was $2,400, below Sydney metro's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Padstow was $470, matching Sydney metro's figure but higher than the national average of $375. Nationally, Padstow's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,400 compared to Australia's average of $1,863.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.2% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Padstow performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

Padstow trail's residents aged 15+ have 30.1% with university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 21.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are held by 29.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 18.4%. Current educational participation is high, with 28.9% enrolled in formal education: 8.8% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 6.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow has 89 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 35 different routes, collectively facilitating 4,412 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuting is outward-bound. Car remains the dominant mode at 78%, while train usage stands at 14%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 46.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 630 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 49 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes, as assessed by AreaSearch using mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both younger and older age groups exhibit low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is relatively low at around 52% (~7,701 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (5.9%), while 73.8% claim to be free from medical ailments, similar to Greater Sydney's 74.6%. Under-65 residents have better health outcomes than average. Padstow has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.7% (2,787 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Health outcomes among seniors are above average and align with national rankings for the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 48.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Padstow, making up 54.0% of its population. However, Buddhism is notably overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 6.2% versus 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.7%), Australian (15.2%), and Chinese (14.3%), the latter being substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%. There are also notable divergences in the representation of Lebanese (5.3% vs 2.6%), Vietnamese (4.4% vs 1.8%), and Macedonian (1.9% vs 0.4%) ethnic groups compared to the Greater Sydney region.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's median age of 38. Comparing the age distributions, Padstow has a notably higher proportion of people aged 55-64 (13.2%) compared to Greater Sydney's average, while those aged 25-34 are under-represented at 12.8%. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 75-84 has increased from 5.0% to 6.1%, while the 55-64 age group has decreased from 14.0% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections suggest significant changes in Padstow's age profile. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 346 people (38%), reaching a total of 1,256. Notably, the combined population aged 65 and above will account for 94% of the total population growth in Padstow, reflecting its aging demographic trend. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 age groups are projected to experience population declines.