Padstow

Padstow has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, AreaSearch estimates Padstow's population to be around 14,909, reflecting a growth of 892 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 6.4% rise from the previous population count of 14,017. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimated resident population of 14,007 in Jun 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,786 persons per square kilometer, placing Padstow in the upper quartile compared to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's growth rate of 6.4% since the census is within 1.2 percentage points of the SA4 region's growth rate of 7.6%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.0% of Padstow's overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where applicable, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Considering these projections, Padstow is anticipated to grow by 636 persons by 2041, reflecting a reduction of 1.2% in total over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Padstow has experienced around 100 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Approximately 500 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 52 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.1 new residents per year arrive for each new home built during these years, indicating that new construction is keeping pace with demand and offering buyers more options while supporting population growth.

The average value of new dwellings being developed is $482,000, suggesting that developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. This financial year has seen $2.0 million in commercial approvals registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow has slightly more development activity, at 28.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, maintaining good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. Recent construction comprises 23.0% standalone homes and 77.0% medium and high-density housing, offering affordable entry pathways and attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, currently at 68.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options.

Padstow reflects a low-density area with around 141 people per approval. Given stable or declining population forecasts, the area may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Padstow has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 17 projects likely impacting the area. Notable projects include Evergreen Industrial, Uranus Road Culvert Upgrade (scheduled for completion in October 2023), UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project (commenced on 15th February 2022), and 63-67 Marco Avenue Residential Development (expected to finish by December 2024). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Padstow remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Padstow has an educated workforce with strong professional services representation. The unemployment rate is 4.4%, with estimated employment growth of 3.6% over the past year (AreaSearch). As of September 2025, there are 7,865 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 4.6%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 4.2%.

Workforce participation is similar to Greater Sydney at 70.0%. According to Census data, 46.7% work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Padstow specializes in transport, postal & warehousing (1.6 times regional level), but has lower representation in professional & technical services (8.5% vs Greater Sydney's 11.5%).

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. In the past year, employment increased by 3.6%, labour force by 4.0%, raising unemployment by 0.4 percentage points, contrasting with Greater Sydney's respective increases of 2.1%, 2.4%, and 0.2%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.5% in five years and 13.4% in ten years (simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows income in Padstow is below national average. Median income is $50,220 while average income stands at $62,480. Greater Sydney has median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,669 (median) and $68,016 (average). Census 2021 income data shows household income ranks at the 58th percentile ($1,891 weekly), personal income at the 37th percentile. Distribution data indicates largest segment comprises 31.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (4,741 residents). This mirrors metropolitan region where 30.9% occupy this bracket. High housing costs consume 18.2% of income. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 56th percentile and area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Padstow displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

As of the latest Census evaluation in Padstow, 67.7% of dwellings were houses while 32.3% consisted of other types such as semi-detached properties, apartments and 'other' dwellings. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area had 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow stood at 33.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 33.7% and rented ones at 33.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,400, lower than the Sydney metro average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Padstow was recorded as $470, matching the Sydney metro figure. Nationally, Padstow's median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $2,400 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were substantially higher at $470 than the national average of $375.

Padstow has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.2% of all households, including 39.0% couples with children, 22.6% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.8%, with lone person households at 21.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Padstow performs slightly above the national average for education, showing competitive qualification levels and steady academic outcomes

In Padstow trail regional benchmarks, 30.1% of residents aged 15 and above hold university degrees, compared to the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This discrepancy suggests potential for educational development and skills enhancement in the region. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 21.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.1%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 29.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.0% and certificates for 18.4%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow has 89 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are served by 35 routes providing a total of 4,412 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents typically located 161 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward, with car being the dominant mode at 78%. Train use stands at 14%, and vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 46.7% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 630 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 49 weekly trips per stop.

The level of general health in Padstow is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Padstow shows better-than-average health outcomes, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~7,701 people), compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (7.0%) and asthma (5.9%). 73.8% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Under-65 population health outcomes are better than average. Padstow has 18.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,758 people), higher than the 15.4% in Greater Sydney. Senior health outcomes are above average, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Padstow is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow has a high level of cultural diversity, with 41.1% of its population born overseas and 48.4% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Padstow, making up 54.0% of people. Buddhism is overrepresented compared to Greater Sydney, comprising 6.2% of Padstow's population versus 4.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are Other (15.7%), Australian (15.2%), and Chinese (14.3%), with the latter being substantially higher than the regional average of 8.4%. Notably, Lebanese (5.3%) Vietnamese (4.4%), and Macedonian (1.9%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Padstow compared to regional averages of 2.6%, 1.8%, and 0.4% respectively.

Padstow's population is slightly older than the national pattern

Padstow has a median age of 40, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 years, and marginally higher than Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Greater Sydney average, Padstow has an over-representation of the 55-64 age cohort (13.2%), while the 25-34 age group is under-represented (12.8%). Between 2021 and present day, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 6.1% of Padstow's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 14.0% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests that Padstow's age profile will significantly change. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to increase by 356 people (39%), reaching a total of 1,266 individuals. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 94% of Padstow's total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic trend. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.