Padstow Heights

Padstow Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Padstow Heights is estimated at 4,281 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 687 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,594. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 4,056 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 14 new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 2,151 persons per square kilometer, above average national levels assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow Heights' growth of 19.1% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA4 region (7.6%) and state averages, making it a growth leader in the region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 402 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 4.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Padstow Heights recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Padstow Heights has recorded approximately 37 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 186 homes. In FY-26 so far, 28 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years (FY-21 to FY-25), an average of 0.1 people moved to the area for each dwelling built, indicating that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $483,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In FY-26, $589,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow Heights records 73.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. The building activity shows that 26.0% of new dwellings are standalone homes, while 74.0% are townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and caters to downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers, marking a significant shift from the current housing mix (currently 72.0% houses). The location has approximately 107 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Looking ahead, Padstow Heights is expected to grow by 177 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Padstow Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting the region: UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, involving mixed-use development including affordable housing at Padstow and Heathcote Road Upgrade from Infantry Parade to The Avenue. Revesby Workers Club Redevelopment is also notable.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Padstow Heights significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Padstow Heights has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of December 2025, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.3%.

There were 2,204 residents employed while workforce participation was 66.6%, slightly below Greater Sydney's 70.2%. A significant proportion, 49.5%, of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training has a high concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services have lower representation at 8.1% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3%, labour force grew by 5.2%, leading to a slight decrease in unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2% with a marginal rise in unemployment. Job and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Padstow Heights' employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Padstow Heights has an income level higher than average nationally, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch. For financial year 2023, the median income among taxpayers in Padstow Heights was $56,787 and the average income stood at $70,700. These figures compare to those for Greater Sydney, which were $60,817 (median) and $83,003 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Padstow Heights would be approximately $61,818 (median) and $76,964 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Padstow Heights cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. The income distribution data shows that the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates with 26.8% of residents (1,147 people), which is similar to regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Padstow Heights demonstrates considerable affluence with 30.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Advantage (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padstow Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Padstow Heights, as evaluated at the latest Census conducted on 28 August 2016, comprised 72.4% houses and 27.6% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Sydney metropolitan area's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow Heights stood at 41.8%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (42.2%) or rented (16.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500 as of 2016, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $495. In comparison, Sydney metropolitan area's figures were $2,427 and $470 respectively for mortgage repayments and rents. Nationally, Padstow Heights's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863 as of 2016, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 73.7% of all households, including 38.2% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households making up 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Padstow Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are held by 37.6% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 25.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 9.7% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Padstow Heights has 18 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 12 different routes that together facilitate 747 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents on average located 225 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 89%, while trains are used by 7% of residents. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 49.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages 106 trips per day, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Padstow Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Padstow Heights shows positive outcomes overall, aligning with national benchmarks for mortality rates and health conditions. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher in older, at-risk cohorts compared to the national average.

Private health cover is high, with approximately 55% (~2,349 people) covered, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 59.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (9.4%) and mental health issues (6.4%). 68.5% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Under-65s have better-than-average health outcomes. Padstow Heights has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.5% (1,091 people) than Greater Sydney's 15.4%. While senior health outcomes present challenges, they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padstow Heights was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.2% of its residents born overseas and 26.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Padstow Heights, making up 72.1% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (23.4%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (9.9%), which was lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Some ethnic groups had notable differences in representation: Greek at 6.4% (regional average 1.9%), Lebanese at 4.4% (regional average 2.6%), and Macedonian at 2.1% (regional average 0.4%).

Padstow Heights hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Padstow Heights has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. The age group of 75-84 shows strong representation at 9.4%, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 9.9%. According to the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 9.0% to 10.2% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Padstow Heights' age profile will change significantly. Leading this shift, the 85+ group is projected to grow by 76%, reaching 445 people from 252 currently. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above comprising 95% of expected growth. Meanwhile, the 55-64 and 25-34 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.