Padstow Heights

Padstow Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Padstow Heights is around 4,281, reflecting a growth of 687 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a 19.1% change from the previous population count of 3,594. The resident population estimate of 4,056 by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024, and additional validated new addresses since the Census date, supports this growth figure. This results in a population density ratio of 2,151 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow Heights's population growth rate of 19.1% since the 2021 census exceeds both the SA4 region (7.6%) and the state level, indicating it as a notable growth leader in the area. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth trend.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, to forecast future demographic trends. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year. Applying growth rates by age group from these aggregations for years 2032 to 2041, the suburb of Padstow Heights is expected to grow by 391 persons by 2041, reflecting a decrease of 1.9% in total over the 17-year period. This projection places Padstow Heights's future demographic trend just below the median of statistical areas across the nation.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Padstow Heights recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Padstow Heights recorded around 37 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 189 homes. In FY-26 so far, 24 approvals have been recorded. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25) is approximately 0.1 per year.

This indicates that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average expected construction cost value of new homes being built in the area is $483,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In this financial year, $589,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow Heights records 79.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. New building activity shows 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 72.0% houses). This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

With around 107 people per dwelling approval, Padstow Heights shows characteristics of a growth area. However, with population expected to remain stable or decline, Padstow Heights should see reduced pressure on housing in the future, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Padstow Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely to affect this region. Notable projects include the UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, a mixed-use development featuring affordable housing in Padstow, the Heathcote Road Upgrade from Infantry Parade to The Avenue, and the Revesby Workers Club Redevelopment.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Padstow Heights significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Padstow Heights has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.3% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.7%. As of September 2025, 2,188 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.9% lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation is somewhat below standard at 66.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 70.0%. According to Census responses, 49.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Padstow Heights has a particular specialization in education & training, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 3.7% while labour force increased by 3.9%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Padstow Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that Padstow Heights' median income is $56,787 and average income is $70,700. This compares to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. By September 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%, Padstow Heights' estimated median income is approximately $61,818 and average income is $76,964. The 2021 Census data indicates that incomes in Padstow Heights are at the 59th percentile nationally. Income analysis shows that 26.8% of individuals earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly, consistent with the broader region's 30.9%. Notably, 30.5% of residents earn above $3,000 per week. Housing costs consume 16.6% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. Padstow Heights' SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padstow Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Padstow Heights, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.4% houses and 27.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow Heights was at 41.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.2% and rented dwellings at 16.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $495, compared to Sydney metro's $370. Nationally, Padstow Heights's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.7% of all households, including 38.2% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households making up 1.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with Greater Sydney's average.

The educational profile of Padstow Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (25.7%). Educational participation is high at 29.0%, with 9.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 18 active stops operating within Padstow Heights, served by a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 12 individual routes, collectively offering 747 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 225 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily. Car remains the dominant mode at 89%, with 7% using train. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, above regional average.

A high 49.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census). Service frequency averages 106 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per stop.

Padstow Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Padstow Heights shows positive outcomes overall. Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national averages.

Common health conditions are relatively low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 55% (~2,349 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Arthritis is the most common medical condition, affecting 9.4% of residents, followed by mental health issues at 6.4%. 68.5% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. The under-65 population has better than average health outcomes. Padstow Heights has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (25.8%, 1,104 people) compared to Greater Sydney (15.4%). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padstow Heights was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.2% of its population born overseas and 26.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Padstow Heights, accounting for 72.1% of the population, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (23.4%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (9.9%), which was lower than the regional average of 16.0%.

Notably, Greek (6.4%) and Lebanese (4.4%) populations were higher in Padstow Heights compared to the regional averages of 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Macedonian population was also higher at 2.1% compared to the regional average of 0.4%.

Padstow Heights hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Padstow Heights has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. The 75-84 age group comprises 9.5% of Padstow Heights' population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 9.8%. According to the 2021 Census, the 65-74 age group has increased from 9.0% to 10.3%, and the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Padstow Heights' age profile will change significantly. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 64%, reaching 422 from 256. This growth will be driven entirely by the aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising all of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 45-54 and 0-4 age cohorts are expected to experience population declines.