Padstow Heights

Padstow Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Padstow Heights' population is estimated at around 4,068, reflecting an increase of 474 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,594. This increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 4,041 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of additional 14 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,044 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Padstow Heights' growth rate of 13.2% since the 2021 census exceeded its SA3 area's growth of 4.1%, marking it as a regional growth leader. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 80.0% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 353 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 2.4% in total over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Padstow Heights when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Padstow Heights has averaged around 40 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 202 homes. As of FY-26, 17 approvals have been recorded. The average population increase per dwelling built in the area between FY-21 and FY-25 was 0.1 people. New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, offering ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $483,000, aligning with regional trends. This financial year, $303,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow Heights records 92.0% more new home approvals per person. The current building activity shows 25.0% standalone homes and 75.0% townhouses or apartments, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a significant shift from the current housing mix of 72.0% houses. Padstow Heights has approximately 74 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 98 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Padstow Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a single project that is expected to impact the area. Notable projects include the UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, a mixed-use development featuring affordable housing in Padstow, the Heathcote Road Upgrade from Infantry Parade to The Avenue, and the Rail Service Improvement Program for the T4 Illawarra and Eastern Suburbs Line.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Padstow Heights significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Padstow Heights has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.2% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 2.3%. As of June 2025, 2,168 residents were in work, with an unemployment rate of 2.0% and workforce participation at 54.3%, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area has a particularly notable concentration in education & training, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services show lower representation at 8.1% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.3%, and labour force increased by 2.4%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.6% and labour force growth of 2.9%, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 offer further insight into potential future demand within Padstow Heights. These projections suggest that national employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Padstow Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years.

The area exhibits notably strong income performance, ranking higher than 70% of areas assessed nationally through AreaSearch analysis

Padstow Heights' income level is higher than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. Padstow Heights' median income among taxpayers was $56,787 and the average income stood at $70,700, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $63,948 (median) and $79,615 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Padstow Heights cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 26.8% of residents (1,090 people), mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Padstow Heights demonstrates considerable affluence with 30.5% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 60th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padstow Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Padstow Heights' dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 72.4% houses and 27.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Padstow Heights was at 41.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.2% and rented ones at 16.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,500, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,240. The median weekly rent in Padstow Heights was $495, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Padstow Heights' mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow Heights has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.7% of all households, including 38.2% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.7 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Padstow Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas account for 11.9% and certificates for 25.7%. Educational participation is high at 29.0%, including 9.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Padstow Heights Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 307 students as of a recent date. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA score of 1050 indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. Secondary schooling is available in nearby areas due to limited local capacity (7.8 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 16.8).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 17 active stops operating within Padstow Heights, offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 12 unique routes, collectively facilitating 997 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is rated good, with residents typically situated 225 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 142 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 58 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Padstow Heights is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Padstow Heights faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is very high at approximately 55% of the total population (~2,232 people), compared to 48.6% across Greater Sydney.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 9.4 and 6.4% of residents respectively. 68.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 75.8% across Greater Sydney. As of 2016, 25.3% of residents are aged 65 and over (1,029 people), which is higher than the 15.8% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Padstow Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow Heights, surveyed in June 2016, showed higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.2% of residents born overseas and 26.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 72.1%, compared to 46.5% in Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (23.4%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (9.9%).

Notably, Greek (6.4%) and Lebanese (4.4%) groups were overrepresented, while Macedonian (2.1%) was slightly above the regional average of 1.7%.

Padstow Heights hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Padstow Heights has a median age of 44, which exceeds Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and is significantly higher than the national average of 38. The age group of 75-84 years old comprises 9.2% of Padstow Heights' population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 age group makes up 10.0%. According to the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 age group has increased from 9.0% to 10.1% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has decreased from 13.0% to 12.0%. By 2041, demographic modeling predicts significant changes in Padstow Heights' age profile. The 85+ age group is projected to grow by 72%, reaching 420 people from the current 244. The aging population trend is evident, with those aged 65 and above accounting for 99% of the projected growth. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 age groups are expected to experience population declines.