Padstow Heights

Padstow Heights is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Padstow Heights is around 3,605. This figure represents an increase of 11 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,594. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,593 as of June 2025, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 14 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,811 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 80% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends suggest the suburb of Padstow Heights is expected to grow by approximately 285 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of around 7.6% over the 16-year period. This growth is projected to be just below the median of statistical areas across the nation.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Padstow Heights when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Padstow Heights recorded approximately 37 residential property approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling around 186 homes. As of FY26, 36 approvals have been registered. The average population increase per dwelling built between FY21 and FY25 was 1.2 people, indicating a balanced supply and demand market with stable conditions. New homes are being constructed at an average value of $483,000, targeting the premium market segment.

In FY26, commercial approvals valued at $589,000 have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Greater Sydney, Padstow Heights has 81.0% more new home approvals per person, offering buyers greater choice. Building activity comprises 26.0% standalone homes and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, promoting higher-density living and affordability for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This differs from the current housing mix of 72.0% houses. The area has approximately 113 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, Padstow Heights is projected to grow by 273 residents.

At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond projections.

Padstow Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to influence the area. Key projects include the UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, a mixed-use development featuring affordable housing in Padstow, and the Heathcote Road Upgrade from Infantry Parade to The Avenue. The Revesby Workers Club Redevelopment is also notable.

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AreaSearch analysis reveals Padstow Heights significantly outperforming the majority of regions assessed nationwide

Padstow Heights has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.0% as of December 2025, showing an estimated employment growth of 3.1% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. In December 2025, 2,053 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 2.2%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was similar to Greater Sydney's at 68.8%. Census responses indicated that 49.5% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. Notably, education & training had employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services showed lower representation at 8.1% compared to the regional average of 11.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 3.1%, while labour force increased by 3.1% with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged, according to AreaSearch's analysis of SALM and ABS data aggregated from broader statistical areas. In comparison, Greater Sydney recorded employment growth of 2.2%, labour force growth of 2.3%, with a marginal rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Padstow Heights. Applying these projections to the local employment mix suggests that local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The suburb of Padstow Heights has a higher income level than the national average, according to the latest Australian Taxation Office (ATO) data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Padstow Heights is $56,787, with an average income of $70,700. This compares to figures for Greater Sydney of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $62,647 (median) and $77,996 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, incomes in Padstow Heights cluster around the 59th percentile nationally. The distribution data shows that 26.8% of residents (966 people) earn between $1,500 and $2,999 per week, mirroring regional levels where 30.9% occupy this bracket. Padstow Heights demonstrates considerable affluence with 30.5% earning over $3,000 per week. High housing costs consume 16.6% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 60th percentile nationally. The suburb's SEIFA (Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas) income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Padstow Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Padstow Heights, as per the latest Census, 72.4% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 27.6% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Sydney metropolitan areas, where 55.9% of dwellings are houses and 44.1% are other types. Home ownership in Padstow Heights stood at 41.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 42.2% and rented ones at 16.0%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,500, exceeding Sydney's average of $2,427. Median weekly rent in Padstow Heights was $495, compared to Sydney's $470. Nationally, Padstow Heights' mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Padstow Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 73.7% of all households, including 38.2% couples with children, 25.3% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.3%, with lone person households at 25.1% and group households making up 1.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.7 people, which aligns with the Greater Sydney average.

The educational profile of Padstow Heights exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 25.9%, significantly lower than Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.8%) and graduate diplomas (2.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 37.6% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 11.9% and certificates at 25.7%. Educational participation is high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.7% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 5.0% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 29.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.7% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 18 active transport stops operating within Padstow Heights. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 12 individual routes. Collectively, these provide 747 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 225 meters from the nearest transport stop. In this primarily residential area, most residents commute outward using cars at an 89% rate, while 7% use trains. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling, exceeding the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 49.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 106 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 41 weekly trips per individual stop.

Padstow Heights's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Padstow Heights residents show relatively positive health outcomes according to health data analysed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and health conditions are broadly in line with national benchmarks, with low prevalence of common health conditions among the general population, although higher than the national average for older, at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 55% (~1,978 people) have private health cover, compared to 59.9% across Greater Sydney. Arthritis and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in Padstow Heights, affecting 9.4 and 6.4% of residents respectively. About 68.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. The under-65 population demonstrates better than average health outcomes. The area has 25.9% (933 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Padstow Heights was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Padstow Heights had a higher cultural diversity than most local areas, with 24.2% of its population born overseas and 26.2% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Padstow Heights, accounting for 72.1% of residents, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (23.4%), Australian (21.0%), and Other (9.9%).

Notably, Greek (6.4%) and Lebanese (4.4%) populations were higher than the regional averages of 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively, while Macedonian was slightly overrepresented at 2.1%.

Padstow Heights hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Padstow Heights has a median age of 44, which is higher than Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and significantly exceeds the national norm of 38. The proportion of residents aged 85 and above is 6.2%, notable compared to Greater Sydney, while those aged 25-34 make up 10.1%. According to the 2021 Census, the population aged 65-74 has increased from 9.0% to 10.4%. Conversely, the proportion of residents aged 45-54 has decreased from 13.0% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Padstow Heights's age profile. The 85+ group is projected to grow by 79%, reaching 400 people from the current figure of 223. This growth will be led by those aged 65 and above, who are expected to comprise 93% of the total population increase. Meanwhile, the populations aged 15-24 and 55-64 are projected to decline.