Oatley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Oatley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Oatley statistical area (Lv2) is around 11,139. This figure represents an increase of 475 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,664. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 10,853 in June 2024, based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS, and an additional 35 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,549 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 87.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, the Oatley (SA2) is expected to grow by just below the median of statistical areas across the nation by 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the area is expected to increase by 1,045 persons over this period, reflecting an overall gain of 8.1%.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Oatley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Oatley has recorded approximately 35 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 177 homes were approved, with a further nine approved in FY26 so far. Despite population decline, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average value of $669,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment. Commercial approvals this financial year totaled $3.5 million, suggesting limited commercial development focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Oatley shows 14.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 50th percentile of areas assessed nationally. This below-average activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 41.0% standalone homes and 59.0% townhouses or apartments, a shift from existing housing patterns (currently 71.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Oatley has approximately 326 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, the location is expected to grow by 897 residents through to 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oatley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 18 projects that could affect the region. Notable ones include Mortdale RSL Redevelopment, Mortdale Local Centre Development Control Plan, Former Oatley Bowling Club Redevelopment (Arthur Hardiman Reserve), and Oatley to Como Walkway Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis of employment trends sees Oatley performing better than 90% of local markets assessed across Australia

Oatley has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate was 1.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.0% over the past year.

As of that date, 6,739 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.7%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation was broadly similar to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Employment is concentrated in professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training sectors. Notably, employment levels in education & training were at 1.3 times the regional average, while accommodation & food services showed lower representation at 3.8% compared to the regional average of 5.8%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.0%, labour force by 4.2%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points in Oatley. In Greater Sydney, employment grew by 2.1%, labour force expanded by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points during the same period. State-level data as of 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Oatley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 7.1% over five years and 14.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Oatley had a median income among taxpayers of $62,527 and an average income of $87,282. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to Greater Sydney's median income of $60,817 and average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth from June 2023 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $68,067 (median) and $95,015 (average). The 2021 Census shows Oatley's household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 84th and 91st percentiles nationally. Income analysis indicates that 29.5% of Oatley residents earn over $4,000 annually (3,286 individuals), contrasting with the region where 30.9% fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket. The suburb demonstrates affluence with 43.0% earning over $3,000 weekly after housing costs, reflecting strong purchasing power and a SEIFA income ranking in the 9th decile.

Oatley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Oatley, as per the latest Census evaluation, 70.9% of dwellings were houses while 29.1% consisted of other types such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This contrasted with Sydney metropolitan area's figures of 52.1% houses and 47.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oatley stood at 46.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.9% and rented ones at 20.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,000, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,466. The median weekly rent figure in Oatley was recorded as $490, compared to Sydney metro's $440. Nationally, Oatley's median monthly mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $3,000 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while median weekly rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oatley features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 79.1% of all households, including 42.4% couples with children, 26.7% couples without children, and 9.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.9%, with lone person households at 19.5% and group households comprising 1.4%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which matches the Greater Sydney average.

Oatley shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational attainment in Oatley is notably high, with 44.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications as of the latest data point. This figure exceeds the national average of 30.4% and the NSW average of 32.2%, indicating a significant educational advantage for the area. Bachelor degrees are the most common, held by 29.2% of residents in this age group, followed by postgraduate qualifications (12.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 27.0% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 11.3%, while certificates make up 15.7%.

Educational participation is notably high in Oatley, with 29.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education as of the latest data point. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 6.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis indicates that there are currently 64 operational public transport stops in Oatley. These stops offer a combination of train and bus services, with a total of 14 unique routes running through the area. The collective weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 2,372.

Residents enjoy excellent accessibility to public transport, with an average distance of 151 meters to the nearest stop. On a daily basis, there are approximately 338 trips across all routes, translating to roughly 37 weekly trips per individual stop.

Oatley's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups

Health outcomes data shows excellent results across Oatley with a very low prevalence of common health conditions across all age groups. The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 61% of the total population (6,836 people), compared to 54.6% across Greater Sydney and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 6.7% and 6.0% of residents respectively.

74.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 77.2% across Greater Sydney. The area has 21.6% of residents aged 65 and over (2,406 people), which is higher than the 19.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, performing even better than the general population in health metrics.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Oatley was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oatley's population, as of the 2016 Census, comprised 27.2% born overseas and 28.1% speaking a language other than English at home, indicating higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Christianity was the predominant religion in Oatley, with 61.1%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 49.7%. The top three ancestry groups were English (21.7%), Australian (20.2%), and Chinese (11.9%).

Notably, Croatian (2.2%) and Macedonian (2.1%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.2% and 2.3%, respectively, while Lebanese (2.2%) was underrepresented compared to the regional average of 3.2%.

Oatley hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

The median age in Oatley is 43 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 years make up 11.7% of the population, a prominent group compared to Greater Sydney. Meanwhile, the 25-34 year-olds comprise only 8.3%, which is smaller than in Greater Sydney. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of 15-24 year-olds has increased from 11.8% to 13.7%. Conversely, the 35-44 age group has decreased from 13.4% to 12.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Oatley's age structure. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to increase by 391 people (49%), growing from 802 to 1,194. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 80% of total population growth, reflecting Oatley's aging demographic trend. However, the 0-4 and 5-14 age cohorts are projected to experience population declines.