Bonnet Bay

Bonnet Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the estimated population of Bonnet Bay is around 2,276. This reflects an increase of 38 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 2,238. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,275, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,014 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Bonnet Bay has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.5%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 63.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Bonnet Bay is expected to grow by 137 persons, reflecting an increase of 7.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Bonnet Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Bonnet Bay has seen virtually no dwelling approvals in recent years. Over the past five financial years (FY21 to FY25), a total of approximately four homes were approved. As of FY26, no approvals have been recorded yet.

This low supply is despite an estimated average of 14 new residents per year for every home built over the same period, indicating significant demand exceeding supply. New properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $548,000. Compared to Greater Sydney, Bonnet Bay has significantly less development activity, with only 11% of the regional average per person (89% below). This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. However, recent construction activity has intensified, though it remains below national averages, suggesting possible planning constraints. The area's building activity consists entirely of standalone homes, maintaining its traditional suburban character focused on family homes appealing to those seeking space. Bonnet Bay shows a mature, established population with approximately 1151 people per approval.

Bonnet Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No factors impact an area's performance more than local infrastructure changes, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero such projects likely affecting this area. Key projects include 544-550 Box Road Jannali Mixed-Use Development, M6 Stage 2, Blaxland Riverside Estate, and Rail Service Improvement Program - T4 Illawarra & Eastern Suburbs Line, with the following list detailing those most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Bonnet Bay places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Bonnet Bay has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. The unemployment rate was 1.1% as of June 2025, lower than Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 3.2%. There were 1,339 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 3.1%, and workforce participation was 66.5% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Key industries of employment among residents are professional & technical, health care & social assistance, and education & training.

Health care & social assistance employs 12.0% of local workers, below Greater Sydney's rate of 14.1%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 3.2%, labour force by 3.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.1 percentage points in Bonnet Bay. In comparison, Greater Sydney saw employment grow by 2.6%, labour force expand by 2.9%, and unemployment rise by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bonnet Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.9% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Bonnet Bay had a median income among taxpayers of $69,036 and an average of $93,366. These figures are notably high compared to national levels, with Greater Sydney having a median of $56,994 and an average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes for Bonnet Bay as of September 2025 would be approximately $77,741 (median) and $105,139 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Bonnet Bay rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 97th percentiles. Distribution data shows that 34.3% of individuals earn above $4,000 weekly, contrasting with broader area patterns where earnings bands below this dominate. A significant majority (51.5%) earns above $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.6% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. Bonnet Bay's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Bonnet Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Bonnet Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.9% houses and 1.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 70.4% houses and 29.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bonnet Bay stood at 44.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 50.1% and rented ones at 5.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,000, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,600. Median weekly rent in the area was $700, higher than Sydney metro's $483. Nationally, Bonnet Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Bonnet Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 89.9% of all households, including 50.1% couples with children, 33.3% couples without children, and 5.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 10.1%, with lone person households at 9.5% and group households comprising 0.4%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.8.

Bonnet Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's educational profile is notable regionally, with university qualification rates of 37.8% among residents aged 15+, surpassing the Australian average of 30.4% and the SA3 area rate of 30.5%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 25.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational credentials are also prominent, with 34.2% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 13.9% and certificates for 20.3%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.0% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 5.1% pursuing tertiary education. Bonnet Bay Public School serves the local area, with an enrollment of 192 students as of a certain date. The area exhibits above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1097). There is one school focusing exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited, with 8.4 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 17.8, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bonnet Bay has 39 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together offer 250 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 88 meters.

On average, there are 35 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about six weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Bonnet Bay is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Bonnet Bay shows superior health outcomes for both younger and older age groups, with low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 64% of its total population (1,450 people) has private health cover, compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0% and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.4%) and asthma (7.7%), with 70.3% of residents reporting no medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 70.6%.

In Bonnet Bay, 21.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (487 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 18.8%. Health outcomes among seniors in Bonnet Bay are particularly strong, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

In terms of cultural diversity, Bonnet Bay records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bonnet Bay's cultural diversity aligns with the broader area, where 78.6% were born in Australia, 93.4% are citizens, and 89.8% speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Bonnet Bay, accounting for 61.9%, similar to Greater Sydney's 61.9%. The top three ancestry groups in Bonnet Bay are English (29.0%), Australian (24.9%), and Irish (10.3%).

Notably, French (1.1%) Welsh (0.9%) and Polish (1.1%) ethnicities are more prevalent than the regional averages of 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.6%, respectively.

Bonnet Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Bonnet Bay's median age is 44, surpassing Greater Sydney's figure of 37 and Australia's national norm of 38. The 65-74 age group makes up 12.9% of Bonnet Bay's population, higher than Greater Sydney's percentage, while the 25-34 cohort is less prevalent at 6.3%. Post-2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group increased from 11.3% to 13.3%, and the 75 to 84 cohort rose from 6.1% to 7.2%. Conversely, the 35 to 44 cohort decreased from 13.9% to 12.7%. By 2041, Bonnet Bay's age profile is projected to change significantly. The 55 to 64 group is expected to grow by 22%, reaching 360 from 295. Those aged 65 and above are set to comprise 68% of the population growth. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 and 15 to 24 age groups are projected to experience population declines.