Picnic Point

An assessment of population growth drivers in Picnic Point reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for Picnic Point, its population is estimated at around 6,733 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 320 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,413 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation using ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and additional validated addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,744 persons per square kilometer, exceeding national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Picnic Point's growth rate of 5.0% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area's growth rate of 4.1%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 61.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Picnic Point is expected to increase by 479 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 5.0% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Picnic Point when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Picnic Point recorded approximately 47 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 238 homes were approved, with an additional 16 approved in FY-26 so far.

The average population increase per dwelling built over these years was 0.7 people. New supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is $532,000. Comparatively, Picnic Point's construction levels are 32.0% above the Greater Sydney regional average per person over the past five years. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values.

New development consists of 27.0% detached dwellings and 73.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift from the area's current housing composition of 76.0% houses. This change reflects decreasing availability of developable sites and evolving lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options. Picnic Point shows characteristics of a low density area with around 153 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is forecasted to gain approximately 336 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling population growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Picnic Point has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a single project that is likely to impact the area, influenced by changes in local infrastructure and major projects. Key projects include Heathcote Road Upgrade from Infantry Parade to The Avenue, UMA Centre Padstow Transformation Project, Revesby Workers Club Redevelopment, and Mixed use development including affordable housing in Padstow.

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Picnic Point ranks among the top 25% of areas assessed nationally for overall employment performance

Picnic Point has a highly educated workforce with strong representation in professional services. Its unemployment rate is 2.3%, lower than the national average.

In the past year, employment grew by an estimated 2.6%. As of June 2025, 3,966 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. Workforce participation is at 63.2%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The dominant employment sectors are education & training, health care & social assistance, and construction.

Notably, the area specializes in education & training, with an employment share 1.5 times the regional level. However, professional & technical services are under-represented at 8.8%, compared to Greater Sydney's 11.5%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally, as indicated by a lower Census working population vs resident population ratio. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 2.6% while unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.6%, with unemployment increasing by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Picnic Point's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Picnic Point's median income among taxpayers is $63,274, with an average of $78,395. This ranks highly in Australia compared to Greater Sydney's median of $56,994 and average of $80,856. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Picnic Point would be approximately $71,253 (median) and $88,281 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Picnic Point rank highly nationally, between the 75th and 89th percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 27.5% of residents (1,851 people), aligning with regional levels where this cohort represents 30.9%. Higher earners are substantial with 39.8% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume 15.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 9th decile.

Picnic Point is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Picnic Point's dwellings, as per the latest Census, were 75.5% houses and 24.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 61.5% houses and 38.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Picnic Point stood at 40.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 44.1% and rented ones at 15.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,817, higher than Sydney metro's $2,240. Median weekly rent in Picnic Point was $580, compared to Sydney metro's $425. Nationally, Picmic Point's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,817 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Picnic Point features high concentrations of family households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 83.4% of all households, including 47.6% couples with children, 24.2% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 16.6%, with lone person households at 15.5% and group households making up 1.0%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 3.1.

The educational profile of Picnic Point exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

Picnic Point trail has 30.0% of residents aged 15+ with university degrees, compared to Greater Sydney's 38.0%. The most common degree is bachelor's at 20.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are held by 34.5% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.6% and certificates at 22.9%. Current educational participation is high, with 30.0% enrolled in formal education: primary (11.6%), secondary (8.6%), and tertiary (4.5%).

Picnic Point Public School and Picnic Point High School serve a total of 1,265 students. The area has above-average socio-educational conditions with an ICSEA score of 1065. Educational provision is conventional, split between one primary and one secondary institution.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Picnic Point has 29 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 21 different routes that together facilitate 529 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is excellent, with residents typically living just 154 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 75 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Picnic Point's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Picnic Point shows strong health metrics across all ages. Both younger and older residents have a low prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is high at approximately 58% of the total population (3,897 people), compared to 48.6% in Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (7.6%) and asthma (6.6%). A majority, 73.6%, report being free from medical ailments, slightly lower than Greater Sydney's 75.8%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 17.6% of the population (1,185 people), higher than Greater Sydney's 15.8%. Seniors' health outcomes align with the general population's profile, indicating above-average performance.

Picnic Point was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Picnic Point had a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 23.1% of its population born overseas and 27.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Picnic Point, accounting for 66.8% of the population, compared to 46.5% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (20.7%), English (20.2%), and Other (10.4%).

Notably, Lebanese (5.0%) and Greek (5.4%) groups had higher representation in Picnic Point than regionally (14.9% and 3.4%, respectively), while Macedonian representation was slightly higher at 2.0%.

Picnic Point's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Picnic Point is 39 years, which is slightly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and close to Australia's national average of 38 years. Compared to Greater Sydney, the 5-14 age group is notably more prevalent in Picnic Point at 14.4%, while the 25-34 age group is under-represented at 9.8%. Post-Census data shows that the 15-24 age group has increased from 11.7% to 13.3% of the population, while the 25-34 age group has decreased from 10.8% to 9.8%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes in Picnic Point's population structure. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 51%, reaching 600 people from the current 397. This growth will be led by residents aged 65 and older, who are expected to account for 70% of the population increase. Conversely, the 15-24 and 0-4 age groups are anticipated to experience population declines.