Gymea Bay

Gymea Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, as of Nov 2025, Gymea Bay's estimated population is around 7,171, reflecting an increase of 188 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.7% increase from the previous population count of 6,983. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 7,163 residents following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release (June 2024) and additional validation of 43 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,013 persons per square kilometer for Gymea Bay, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 2.7% since census is within 1.2 percentage points of its SA4 region (3.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, primarily driving the area's population growth.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends suggest an increase just below the median of national areas, with Gymea Bay expected to expand by 467 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a total gain of 6.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Gymea Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers derived from statistical area data, Gymea Bay averaged approximately 30 new dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 154 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved in FY-26 to date. This averages out to about 1.3 new residents arriving per new home annually over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost value of new properties is approximately $522,000, indicating a focus on premium market segments. In FY-26, around $2.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gymea Bay has roughly two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 59th percentile nationally when considering areas assessed. The current building activity shows a skew towards compact living, with 29.0% detached dwellings and 71.0% attached dwellings. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 90.0% houses) reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.

Gymea Bay has around 259 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 467 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Gymea Bay has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

The area's performance is significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure projects and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Gymea Village Precinct Upgrade, Gymea Bay Road Mixed-Use Development, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane - Lucas Heights to Engadine, and Elliston Estate - Stage 3 & 4. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Gymea Bay places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gymea Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services being well-represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 1.4% as of September 2025.

This figure represents an employment growth of 1.5% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of the same month, 4,147 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 2.8%, which is below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%. The workforce participation rate in Gymea Bay was 67.7%, higher than Greater Sydney's 60.0%. The leading employment industries among residents are construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services.

Notably, the area shows a strong specialization in construction with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level. However, health care & social assistance has limited presence at 11.9% compared to the regional level of 14.1%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 1.5% while labour force grew by 1.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Greater Sydney where employment rose by 2.1%, labour force grew by 2.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. As of 25-Nov, NSW's employment had contracted by 0.03% (a loss of 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compares favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that over five years, national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% and by 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Gymea Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Gymea Bay has an extremely high income level nationally according to the latest Australian Taxation Office data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Gymea Bay is $63,976 and the average income stands at $83,979. These figures compare to those of Greater Sydney which are $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Gymea Bay would be approximately $69,644 (median) and $91,420 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Gymea Bay all rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 97th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the predominant cohort spans 35.2% of locals (2,524 people) with earnings in the $4000+ category, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 50.8% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Gymea Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gymea Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In contrast, Sydney metro had 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gymea Bay was higher than Sydney metro's figure at 44.5%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (48.0%) or rented (7.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Gymea Bay was $3,033, surpassing Sydney metro's average of $2,774. Additionally, the median weekly rent figure in Gymea Bay was recorded at $680, compared to Sydney metro's $500. Nationally, Gymea Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gymea Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.6% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 11.0% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gymea Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Gymea Bay are at 33.0%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 22.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gymea Bay has 24 operational public transport stops. All of these are bus stops, served by seven different routes. These routes combined offer 247 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Gymea Bay is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 194 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 35 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gymea Bay's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Gymea Bay. Both young and old age cohorts have low prevalence of common health conditions.

The rate of private health cover is exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (4307 people), compared to 68.0% across Greater Sydney. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, impacting 7.3 and 6.6% of residents respectively. 74.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 72.3% across Greater Sydney. The area has 18.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1297 people), which is lower than the 21.1% in Greater Sydney. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Gymea Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gymea Bay had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.8% being citizens, and 92.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Gymea Bay, comprising 60.0% of people, compared to 61.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) was overrepresented in Gymea Bay compared to the regional average (0.6%), as were Welsh (0.7% vs 0.5%) and Maltese (0.8% vs 0.9%).

Gymea Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Gymea Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's national average of 38 years. The 45-54 age group constitutes 15.9% of the population compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up only 6.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 14.8% to 15.5%, but the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 7.0% to 6.2%. By 2041, the population forecasts indicate substantial demographic shifts in Gymea Bay. Notably, the 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 49%, adding 219 people to reach a total of 664 from the previous 444. The combined 65+ age groups are expected to account for 86% of the total population growth, reflecting Gymea Bay's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.