Gymea Bay

Gymea Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of Gymea Bay is around 7,171, reflecting an increase of 188 people since the 2021 Census. This growth rate of approximately 2.7% places Gymea Bay within 1.3 percentage points of its SA4 region's growth of 4%. The population density stands at 3,013 persons per square kilometer, positioning it in the upper quartile compared to other areas assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains in recent periods. According to ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, Gymea Bay's population is expected to increase by 471 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of around 6.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, a population increase just below the median of national areas is expected, with the area expected to expand by 471 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting recording a gain of 6.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Gymea Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Gymea Bay averaged approximately 30 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 154 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each new home accommodates about 1.3 new residents per year over the past five financial years.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new properties is around $522,000, indicating a focus on premium market segments. In FY-26, approximately $2.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting a predominantly residential concentration. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gymea Bay has roughly two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 59th percentile nationally. The current building activity comprises approximately 29.0% detached dwellings and 71.0% attached dwellings, demonstrating a shift towards compact living that caters to affordability requirements and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

This represents a significant change from the previous housing mix of predominantly houses (currently 90.0%). With around 259 people per dwelling approval, Gymea Bay exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is projected to grow by approximately 463 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should meet demand adequately, providing favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Gymea Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Gymea Village Precinct Upgrade, Gymea Bay Road Mixed-Use Development, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane from Lucas Heights to Engadine, and Elliston Estate - Stage 3 & 4. The following details those most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Gymea Bay places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gymea Bay has a well-educated workforce. Its unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.9%. As of December 2025, 4,138 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.6%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 73.4%, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 70.2%. According to Census responses, 48.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading industries include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has limited presence at 11.9%.

Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the working population vs resident population count. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 0.9% and labour force grew by 0.9%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 3.4%. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% and labour force grow by 2.3%, with a marginal increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gymea Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

The suburb of Gymea Bay has a high national income level according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Gymea Bay is $63,976 and the average income stands at $83,979, compared to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Gymea Bay would be approximately $69,644 (median) and $91,420 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Gymea Bay rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 97th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that 35.2% of locals (2,524 people) fall into the $4000+ category, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Higher earners make up a substantial presence with 50.8% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of their income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Gymea Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gymea Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is in contrast to Sydney metro's figures of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gymea Bay stood at 44.5%, with mortgaged dwellings accounting for 48.0% and rented dwellings making up 7.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $3,033, higher than Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent figure in Gymea Bay was recorded at $680, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Gymea Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gymea Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.6% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up 11.4%, comprising 11.0% lone person households and 0.8% group households. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Gymea Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

In Gymea Bay, the percentage of residents with university qualifications is 33.0%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 35.4% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 22.7%.

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gymea Bay has 24 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by seven different routes that together facilitate 247 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 194 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from Gymea Bay, with car being the primary mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 48.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 35 trips are made daily, resulting in approximately ten weekly trips per individual stop.

Gymea Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Gymea Bay's health outcomes show remarkable results based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence were low, especially among younger cohorts. Approximately 60% of Gymea Bay's total population (4,307 people) had private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (7.3%) and asthma (6.6%), while 74.0% of residents reported no medical ailments, compared to 74.6% in Greater Sydney. Gymea Bay has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 18.7% (1,340 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 15.4%. Although health outcomes among seniors are strong, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Gymea Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gymea Bay had a cultural diversity score below average, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.8% being citizens, and 92.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Gymea Bay, comprising 60.0% of people, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%, as were Welsh (0.7%) and Maltese (0.8%).

Gymea Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Gymea Bay is 42 years, significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years, and also older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 45-54 age group comprises 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up 6.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.6% to 6.5%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has decreased from 7.0% to 6.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Gymea Bay, with the 75 to 84 age group expected to grow by 43% (201 people), reaching 668 from 466. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 84% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25 to 34 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.