Gymea Bay

Gymea Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Gymea Bay's population is estimated at around 7,174, reflecting an increase of 191 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 2.7% increase from the previous population count of 6,983. The latest estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and analysis of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, which shows a resident population of 7,168. This results in a population density ratio of 3,014 persons per square kilometer, placing Gymea Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 2.7% growth since the Census is within 1.4 percentage points of the SA4 region's 4.1%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the area.

For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia aggregations released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered SA2 areas and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas from 2032 to 2041. Based on these aggregations, Gymea Bay is expected to increase its population by 469 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 6.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Gymea Bay recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Gymea Bay averaged approximately 31 new dwelling approvals per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 157 homes were approved, with an additional seven approved so far in FY-26. This translates to about 1.3 new residents arriving for each new home over these five years, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

The average construction cost of new properties was approximately $522,000. In the current financial year, around $1.5 million in commercial approvals have been registered. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gymea Bay has roughly two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person, placing it among the 61st percentile nationally. The building activity shows a skew towards attached dwellings, with approximately 72% being attached and 28% detached. This trend reflects reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers.

Currently, the housing mix is predominantly houses (90%), but this is expected to change due to these trends. Gymea Bay has around 242 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 466 residents through to 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Gymea Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified seven projects that could impact the area, with key ones being Gymea Village Precinct Upgrade, Gymea Bay Road Mixed-Use Development, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane - Lucas Heights to Engadine, and Elliston Estate - Stage 3 & 4. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The exceptional employment performance in Gymea Bay places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gymea Bay has a highly educated workforce with professional services well represented. Its unemployment rate was 1.5% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 3.1%.

As of June 2025, 4,129 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%, and workforce participation was 67.7% compared to Greater Sydney's 60.0%. Leading employment industries among residents include construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. The area shows strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance has a limited presence at 11.9% compared to 14.1% regionally. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 3.1% and labour force by 3.3%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points, contrasting with Greater Sydney's 2.6%, 2.9%, and 0.3% changes respectively.

National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia (Sep-22) project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gymea Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Gymea Bay's median income among taxpayers was $63,976 in financial year 2022, according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. The average income stood at $83,980 during the same period, which compares to Greater Sydney's figures of $56,994 and $80,856 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $72,043 (median) and $94,570 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Gymea Bay, between the 82nd and 97th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that the predominant cohort spans 35.2% of locals (2,525 people) in the $4000+ category, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with 50.8% exceeding $3,000 weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Gymea Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gymea Bay's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Sydney metro's 52.4% houses and 47.6% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gymea Bay stood at 44.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.0% and rented ones at 7.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,033, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,774. Median weekly rent in Gymea Bay was $680, higher than Sydney metro's $500. Nationally, Gymea Bay's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gymea Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 88.6% of all households, including 52.7% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 11.0% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.5.

Gymea Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Gymea Bay are 33.0%, slightly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees lead at 22.4%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 35.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (22.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% currently enrolled in formal education: primary (10.8%), secondary (10.4%), tertiary (5.0%). Gymea Bay Public School serves the area, enrolling 745 students as of a specific date. The school focuses on primary education, with ICSEA score of 1090, indicating above-average socio-educational conditions. School places per 100 residents (10.4) are below the regional average (13.8).

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gymea Bay has 24 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 7 different routes that together facilitate 244 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 194 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 34 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gymea Bay's residents are extremely healthy with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Analysis shows Gymea Bay performed well in health metrics. Both younger and older residents had low prevalence of common conditions.

Private health cover was high at approximately 60% (4,309 people), compared to Greater Sydney's 65.7%. Common medical conditions were arthritis (7.3%) and asthma (6.6%). 74.0% reported no medical ailments, slightly higher than Greater Sydney's 72.3%. The area had 18.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,298 people), lower than Greater Sydney's 21.1%. Seniors' health outcomes were strong, similar to the general population's profile.

Gymea Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gymea Bay had a cultural diversity score below average, with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.8% being citizens, and 92.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Gymea Bay, accounting for 60.0% of people, compared to 61.2% across Greater Sydney. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) was overrepresented in Gymea Bay compared to the regional average of 0.6%, as were Welsh (0.7% vs 0.5%) and Maltese (0.8% vs 0.9%).

Gymea Bay hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Gymea Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 45-54 age group constitutes 15.9% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort makes up only 6.2%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15-24 age group has increased from 14.8% to 15.5%, but the 25-34 cohort has decreased from 7.0% to 6.2%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Gymea Bay. The 75-84 age group is expected to grow by 49%, adding 219 people and reaching a total of 664. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups are projected to account for 85% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. Conversely, the 15-24 and 25-34 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.