Gymea Bay

Gymea Bay is positioned among the lower quartile of areas assessed nationally for population growth based on AreaSearch's assessment of recent, and medium term trends

The population of Gymea Bay is estimated at around 7,241 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 258 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,983. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 7,227 residents following examination of ABS data released in June 2025 and an additional 45 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 3,042 persons per square kilometer, placing Gymea Bay in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb's 3.7% growth since census positions it within 1.3 percentage points of its SA4 region (5.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 56.00000000000001% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends indicate an increase just below the median of national areas, with Gymea Bay expected to expand by 451 persons to 2041, reflecting a gain of 6.0% in total over the 16 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Gymea Bay according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis indicates Gymea Bay averaged approximately 30 new dwelling approvals annually. Between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, around 154 homes were approved, with an additional 25 approved in FY-26 to date. This results in about 0.7 new residents per year arriving for each new home over the past five financial years.

New construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections. The average construction value of new properties is approximately $522,000, indicating a focus on the premium market segment. In FY-26, $2.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Greater Sydney, Gymea Bay has roughly two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 59th percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New building activity shows 29.0% detached dwellings and 71.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 90.0% houses.

This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. With around 259 people per dwelling approval, Gymea Bay exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate Gymea Bay will gain approximately 437 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Gymea Bay has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones are Gymea Bay Road Mixed-Use Development, Heathcote Road Overtaking Lane from Lucas Heights to Engadine, Elliston Estate - Stage 3 & 4, and 147 Garnet Road Kareela Residential Development. The following list details those most relevant.

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The exceptional employment performance in Gymea Bay places it among Australia's strongest labour markets

Gymea Bay has a well-educated workforce with professional services showing strong representation. The unemployment rate was 1.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.7%. As of December 2025, 4,109 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.6%, below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.2%.

Workforce participation was 72.1%, compared to Greater Sydney's 68.8%. According to Census responses, 48.6% of residents worked from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries were construction, health care & social assistance, and professional & technical services. Construction had a particularly strong presence, with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while health care & social assistance had limited presence at 11.9% compared to the regional 14.1%.

The area offered limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, while labour force grew by 0.7%, keeping unemployment relatively stable at 2.6%. In contrast, Greater Sydney saw employment rise by 2.2% and the labour force grow by 2.3%, with a marginal increase in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Gymea Bay's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The economic profile demonstrates exceptional strength, placing the area among the top 10% nationally based on comprehensive AreaSearch income analysis

Gymea Bay suburb's median income among taxpayers was $63,976 and average income stood at $83,979 in financial year 2023. This compares to Greater Sydney's figures of $60,817 and $83,003 respectively. By March 2026, estimates suggest median income would be approximately $70,578 and average income $92,646, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32%. Gymea Bay's household, family, and personal incomes rank highly nationally, between the 82nd and 97th percentiles. Income analysis shows that 35.2% of locals (2,548 people) fall into the $4000+ category, differing from regional levels where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.9%. A substantial presence of higher earners is evident, with 50.8% exceeding $3,000 weekly. After housing costs, residents retain 87.3% of income, reflecting strong purchasing power. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 10th decile.

Gymea Bay is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Gymea Bay's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 90.4% houses and 9.6% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Gymea Bay stood at 44.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 48.0% and rented ones at 7.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $3,033, exceeding Sydney metro's average of $2,427. The median weekly rent in Gymea Bay was $680, compared to Sydney metro's $470. Nationally, Gymea Bay's mortgage repayments were higher at $3,033 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Gymea Bay features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 88.6% of all households, consisting of 52.7% couples with children, 26.0% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 11.4%, with lone person households at 11.0% and group households comprising 0.8%. The median household size is 3.1 people, which is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

Gymea Bay shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

University qualification levels in Gymea Bay stand at 33.0%, slightly below Greater Sydney's average of 38.0%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, held by 22.4% of residents, followed by postgraduate qualifications (7.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 35.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (22.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 32.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 10.4% in secondary education, and 5.0% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Gymea Bay has 24 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These are covered by 7 distinct routes, offering a total of 247 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport access, with an average distance of 194 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards, with cars being the primary mode at 94%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 48.6% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 35 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Gymea Bay's residents boast exceedingly positive health performance metrics with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions

Gymea Bay's health outcomes data shows notable results based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Younger cohorts specifically have a very low prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 60% of Gymea Bay's total population (4349 people) has private health cover, which is exceptionally high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and asthma, affecting 7.3% and 6.6% of residents respectively. 74.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 74.6% across Greater Sydney. Gymea Bay has 18.7% of its population aged 65 and over (1354 people), higher than the 15.5% in Greater Sydney. While health outcomes among seniors are strong, they rank lower nationally than those of the broader population.

Gymea Bay ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Gymea Bay, as per the census conducted on 29 June 2016, showed low cultural diversity with 85.3% of its population born in Australia, 94.8% being citizens, and 92.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 60.0% of Gymea Bay's residents, compared to 49.2% across Greater Sydney. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (30.2%), Australian (28.8%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Russian (0.5%) and Welsh (0.7%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Gymea Bay compared to regional averages of 0.4% each, while Maltese showed a slight underrepresentation at 0.8% versus the regional average of 1.0%.

Gymea Bay's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Gymea Bay is 42 years, which is significantly higher than Greater Sydney's average of 37 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 45-54 age group makes up 15.8% of the population, compared to Greater Sydney, while the 25-34 cohort comprises 6.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.6% to 6.4%, and the 45-54 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 15.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes for Gymea Bay. The 85+ age group is expected to grow by 97% (197 people), reaching 400 from 202. Notably, the combined 65+ age groups will account for 83% of total population growth, reflecting the area's aging demographic profile. In contrast, the 25-34 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.