Paynesville

Paynesville lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Paynesville's population was approximately 7,349 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents an increase of 372 people, a growth rate of 5.3%, since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6,977. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,152 in June 2024 and an additional 325 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 17.6 persons per square kilometer. Paynesville's growth rate exceeded that of its SA3 area (4.0%), indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 82.7% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving this growth.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusting through weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth, placing Paynesville in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas. The area is expected to expand by 3,681 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 47.4% over the 17-year period based on the latest annual ERP population numbers.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Paynesville among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Paynesville has averaged approximately 84 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, a total of 422 homes were approved, with an additional 40 approved so far in FY26. On average, each new home has attracted around one new resident per year over these five years, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost of new dwellings has been $308,000. This financial year has also seen $350,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Paynesville exhibits elevated construction activity, with a 45.0% increase per person over the five-year period. This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values and is significantly above the national average, indicating strong developer interest in the area.

Recent construction comprises predominantly detached houses (97.0%) and a small proportion of attached dwellings (3.0%), preserving Paynesville's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with its emphasis on detached housing. With approximately 100 people per dwelling approval, Paynesville is characterized by low-density development. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Paynesville is projected to gain 3,483 residents by 2041. Development activity is keeping pace with this projected growth, though increasing competition among buyers may arise as the population expands.

Paynesville has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 36thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely impacting the area, notably Paynesville Park Estate, Palm Lake Resort Paynesville, Eagle Point Lifestyle Estate, and Encore Living Paynesville. The following details projects of greatest relevance.

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Employment conditions in Paynesville remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Paynesville has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate is 3.9%, lower than the national average of 5%.

Over the past year, employment growth was estimated at 4.6%. As of September 2025, 2,677 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.1% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Paynesville lags significantly at 40.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 4.3% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.6%, while labour force increased by 4.2%, causing a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.7% and a marginal rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Paynesville's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 indicates Paynesville SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $41,295 and an average of $52,299. This is lower than the national average. Rest of Vic., on the other hand, had a median income of $48,741 and an average of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth from financial year 2022 to September 2025 (an estimated increase of 12.16%), current estimates for Paynesville would be approximately $46,316 median and $58,659 average as of that date. Census 2021 income data shows Paynesville's household, family, and personal incomes all fall between the 5th and 8th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 30.4% of Paynesville's population (2,234 individuals) have incomes within the $800 - $1,499 range, unlike regional trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing costs are modest in Paynesville, with 88.7% of income retained. However, total disposable income ranks at just the 10th percentile nationally.

Paynesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Paynesville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Paynesville stood at 60.3%, with the rest being mortgaged (23.6%) or rented (16.1%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Vic.'s average, while median weekly rent was $310 compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $1,300 and $268 respectively. Nationally, Paynesville's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, with rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Paynesville has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 15.5% couples with children, 44.9% couples without children, and 6.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in Paynesville fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (29.3%). School and university attendance comprises 18.1% of the community, including primary education (6.6%), secondary education (5.0%), and tertiary education (1.5%).

School and university attendance encompasses 18.1% of the community. This includes 6.6% in primary education, 5.0% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Paynesville has two active public transport stops operating, both serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are serviced by four individual routes in total, providing 87 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 1365 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 12 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 43 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Paynesville is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Paynesville faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 46% (~3,395 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (13.9%) and mental health issues (9.0%). Conversely, 53.7% report being free from medical ailments compared to 60.1% in Rest of Vic.. Paynesville has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 41.8% (~3,070 people), compared to the state average of 30.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Paynesville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Paynesville had a lower than average cultural diversity, with 83.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 47.9% of Paynesville's population. Judaism was slightly overrepresented at 0.1%, compared to 0.1% across Rest of Vic..

The top three ancestry groups were English (36.2%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (10.4%). Notably, Dutch (2.0%) and French (0.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively, while German was also higher at 4.0% versus the regional average of 3.4%.

Paynesville ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Paynesville's median age of 60 years is notably higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and well above the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent, making up 22.9% of the population, while those aged 35-44 make up only 7.3%, which is smaller than in Rest of Vic.. This concentration of those aged 65-74 is significantly higher than the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and now, the proportion of those aged 75 to 84 has grown from 13.9% to 14.9%, while the proportion of those aged 65 to 74 has declined from 24.9% to 22.9%, and the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 has dropped from 17.8% to 16.8%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show that the age cohort of 25 to 34 is expected to grow significantly, with an increase of 545 people (109%) from 500 to 1,046.