Paynesville

Paynesville lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Paynesville's population was approximately 6,977 as of the 2021 Census. By Nov 2025, it is estimated to be around 7,350, reflecting a growth of 373 people (5.3%) since the Census date. This increase is inferred from the ABS's estimated resident population of 7,151 as of June 2024 and an additional 325 validated new addresses since the Census. The population density ratio is approximately 17.6 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Paynesville has shown a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%, outperforming its SA3 area. Interstate migration contributed approximately 82.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using a method of weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing Paynesville in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the area is expected to expand by 3,681 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 47.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Paynesville among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Paynesville has averaged approximately 84 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 422 homes were approved, with an additional 44 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, each new home has attracted about one new resident per year over these five years.

This indicates that the supply of new dwellings is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer options and allowing for population growth beyond current projections. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $308,000. Additionally, there have been $350,000 in commercial approvals this financial year, reflecting the area's residential character. Comparatively, Paynesville has recorded elevated construction activity relative to the rest of Victoria, with a 45.0% increase per person over the five-year period.

This maintains good buyer choice while supporting existing property values. The recent construction comprises 97.0% detached houses and 3.0% attached dwellings, preserving Paynesville's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 100 people per dwelling approval, Paynesville exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts suggest Paynesville will gain approximately 3,482 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Development is keeping pace with projected growth, although buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Paynesville has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 32ndth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to impact the area. Key projects are Paynesville Park Estate, Palm Lake Resort Paynesville, Eagle Point Lifestyle Estate, and Encore Living Paynesville. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Paynesville remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Paynesville has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. Its unemployment rate was 3.9% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.6% over the past year. As of this date, 2,677 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 0.1% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation lagged significantly at 43.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, a moderate 16.4% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 4.3% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%.

Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.6%, while labour force increased by 4.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.3 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with local employment projected to increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years based on industry-specific projections applied to Paynesville's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Paynesville SA2 had a median income of $44,224 and an average of $54,537. This is lower than the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth would be approximately $47,872 (median) and $59,036 (average). Census 2021 data shows Paynesville's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 5th and 8th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 30.4% of Paynesville's population, equating to 2,234 individuals, earn within the $800 - $1,499 range, unlike regional trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket. Housing costs are modest with 88.7% of income retained, but total disposable income ranks at just the 10th percentile nationally.

Paynesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Paynesville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.4% other dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Paynesville stood at 60.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.6% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Weekly rent median in Paynesville was $310, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Paynesville's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Paynesville has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.0% of all households, including 15.5% couples with children, 44.9% couples without children, and 6.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Paynesville fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.4%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (29.3%). School and university attendance comprises 18.1% of the community, broken down into primary education (6.6%), secondary education (5.0%), and tertiary education (1.5%).

School and university attendance encompasses 18.1% of the community. This includes 6.6% in primary education, 5.0% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Paynesville has two active public transport stops. These stops are served by two routes that together offer 67 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is limited, with residents typically located 1365 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Paynesville's primarily residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 95%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, 16.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages nine trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 33 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Paynesville is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Paynesville faces substantial health challenges as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~3,439 people), compared to 50.5% in Rest of Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (13.9%) and mental health issues (9.0%). Conversely, 53.7% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Rest of Vic.. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 41.8% of residents aged 65 and over (3,070 people), higher than the 23.5% in Rest of Vic.. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Paynesville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Paynesville, surveyed in June 2016, had low cultural diversity with 83.3% born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 47.9%. Judaism's representation was slightly higher than average at 0.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 0.1%.

Top ancestry groups were English (36.2%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (10.4%). Notably, Dutch (2.0%) and French (0.6%) were overrepresented, while German (4.0%) was slightly above regional average (3.5%).

Paynesville ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Paynesville's median age of 60 years exceeds Rest of Vic.'s 43 and Australia's 38. The age profile shows a prominent group of 65-74 year-olds at 22.9%, compared to the national average of 9.4%. The 35-44 age group is smaller at 7.3% than in Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group grew from 13.9% to 14.9%, while the 65 to 74 cohort declined from 24.9% to 22.9%. The 55 to 64 age group dropped from 17.8% to 16.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to grow by 545 people (109%), from 500 to 1,046.