Paynesville
Statistical Area - sa2

Paynesville lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Paynesville's population is around 7,340 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 363 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,977 people. The change was inferred from the estimated resident population of 7,151 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 321 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 17.6 persons per square kilometer. Paynesville's growth rate of 5.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 3.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 82.7% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 3,681 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 47.6% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Paynesville among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Paynesville averaged approximately 83 new dwelling approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, with 417 dwellings approved between FY20 and FY25, and 6 more in FY26 to date. Over the past five financial years (FY20-FY25), an average of 1 new resident per year arrived for each new home approved. This suggests that new supply has been keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average value of new dwellings developed was $393,000, aligning with broader regional development trends. In FY26, commercial approvals totaling $350,000 have been registered, indicating minimal commercial development activity in Paynesville compared to residential construction. When measured against the Rest of Vic., Paynesville records elevated construction activity, with 48.0% more construction per person over the five-year period ending FY25. This has maintained good buyer choice while supporting existing property values, and is significantly above the national average, indicating robust developer interest in the area.

Recent construction comprises 97.0% detached houses and 3.0% attached dwellings, preserving Paynesville's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 100 people per dwelling approval, Paynesville shows characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate that Paynesville will gain approximately 3,492 residents by 2041. Development is keeping reasonable pace with projected growth, though buyers may face increasing competition as the population expands.

Paynesville has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified ten projects potentially impacting the region. Notable ones include Paynesville Park Estate, Palm Lake Resort Paynesville, Eagle Point Lifestyle Estate, and Shearwater Residential Development (59-Lot Stage). The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Paynesville shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Paynesville has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 4.1%.

At this time, 2,597 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 0.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 40.8%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 4.3% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 7.5%. The area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.6%, while employment declined by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data from Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year (adding 39,880 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.5%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 suggested potential future demand within Paynesville. These projections estimated national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with significant variations between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Paynesville's employment mix indicated local growth of approximately 6.4%% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Paynesville's median income among taxpayers was $41,295 in financial year 2022. The average income was $52,299. This was lower than the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 and average was $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.11% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest Paynesville's median income is approximately $45,470 as of March 2025. The average income estimate for the same period is around $57,586. Census data from 2021 indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Paynesville all fall between the 6th and 8th percentiles nationally. Income analysis shows that 30.4% of Paynesville's population (2,231 individuals) have incomes within the $800 - $1,499 range, unlike regional trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Despite modest housing costs that allow for 88.7% of income retention, Paynesville's total disposable income ranks at just the 11th percentile nationally.

Paynesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Paynesville's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 91.7% houses and 8.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Paynesville's home ownership rate was 60.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 23.6% and rented ones at 16.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Vic.'s average. The median weekly rent figure was $310, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $1,300 and $268 respectively. Nationally, Paynesville's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Paynesville has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.0% of all households, including 15.5% that are couples with children, 44.9% that are couples without children, and 6.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.0%, with lone person households at 29.8% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in Paynesville fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 18.4%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.9%, followed by graduate diplomas (3.3%) and postgraduate qualifications (3.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (13.1%) and certificates (29.3%).

School and university attendance comprises 18.1% of the community, including 6.6% in primary education, 5.0% in secondary education, and 1.5% pursuing tertiary education. Educational provision includes Paynesville Primary School and Eagle Point Primary School, serving a total of 265 students. Paynesville demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 965) with balanced educational opportunities. Both schools focus exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas. Local school capacity is limited at 3.7 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.3, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Paynesville has two active public transport stops operating, both serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are served by four individual routes in total, offering 87 weekly passenger trips combined. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents generally located 1365 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 12 trips per day, which equates to approximately 43 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Paynesville is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Paynesville faces significant health challenges, with various health conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 46% (~3,391 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 13.9% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 9.0%). However, 53.7% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 60.1% in the rest of Victoria. Paynesville has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 41.8% (3,066 people), compared to 30.5% in the rest of Victoria. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, outperforming the general population in health metrics.

Paynesville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Paynesville was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 83.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 96.8% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Paynesville is Christianity, comprising 47.9% of the population. However, Judaism is overrepresented, making up 0.1% compared to the regional average of 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (36.2%), Australian (27.9%), and Scottish (10.4%). Notably, Dutch (2.0%) and French (0.6%) are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively. German is also slightly overrepresented at 4.0% versus the regional average of 3.4%.

Paynesville ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Paynesville has a median age of 60 years, which exceeds Rest of Vic.'s 43 and the Australian median of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are particularly prominent at 22.9%, while the 35-44 group is smaller at 7.3% compared to Rest of Vic.. This concentration of 65-74 year-olds is higher than the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 13.9% to 14.9%, while the 65-74 cohort has declined from 24.9% to 22.9% and the 55-64 group has dropped from 17.8% to 16.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Paynesville's age structure, with the 25-34 age cohort projected to grow by 546 people (109%), from 499 to 1,046.