Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Bairnsdale's population is estimated at around 8,298 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 393 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,905 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,802 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 140 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 133 persons per square kilometer. Bairnsdale's 5.0% growth since census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecast, with the suburb expected to grow by 3,082 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 31.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bairnsdale when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bairnsdale has seen around 46 new homes approved per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, approximately 232 homes were approved, with a further 19 approved so far in FY26. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these years is 0.6.

This suggests that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $408,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26, $20.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Bairnsdale.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person, and it places among the 81st percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. New building activity in Bairnsdale shows 93.0% detached dwellings and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 131 people per dwelling approval, Bairnsdale indeed shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Bairnsdale will gain approximately 2,578 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the area.

Bairnsdale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely to affect this region: Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Bairnsdale shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Bairnsdale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate was 6.0% as of the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 5.2%. As of September 2025, there were 3,458 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.2% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%.

The workforce participation rate was 56.8%, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Only 9.6% of residents worked from home, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with manufacturing notably concentrated at 1.3 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 5.0%, compared to the regional average of 7.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in May-25, employment increased by 5.2% while labour force grew by 3.5%, reducing unemployment by 1.4 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7% and unemployment rise marginally. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Bairnsdale had a lower than average income level nationally in financial year 2023. Its median income among taxpayers was $44,530 and the average income stood at $52,914. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Bairnsdale's median income would be approximately $48,204 as of September 2025, with the average being around $57,279. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Bairnsdale fall between the 7th and 16th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile shows that 28.3% of residents (2,348 people) earn within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, unlike regional trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bairnsdale, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bairnsdale, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 84.2% houses and 15.7% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was at 38.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 27.2% and rented dwellings at 34.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,192, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure for Bairnsdale was $270, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households making up 3.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.6% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 28.7%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 31 active transport stops operating within Bairnsdale. These comprise a mix of train services. They are serviced by 12 individual routes, collectively providing 261 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode at 92%, with 5% walking.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 9.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 37 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bairnsdale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment completed on June 20th, 2022. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 3,969 people), compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 11.2 and 10.1% of residents respectively, while 59.7% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. The working-age population faces particularly high chronic condition rates. As of June 20th, 2022, 24.1% of residents are aged 65 and over (around 1,999 people). Health outcomes among seniors present additional challenges, with national rankings higher than the general population.

Bairnsdale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale's cultural diversity was below average, with 88.0% being citizens, 87.3% born in Australia, and 93.1% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, comprising 44.7%. The 'Other' category was slightly overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to Rest of Vic's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (31.3%), Australian (31.0%), and Scottish (7.9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginals were overrepresented at 4.4% (vs regional 1.4%), as were Dutch at 1.5% (vs 1.7%) and Filipino at 1.2% (vs 0.6%).

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 43, matching Rest of Vic.'s figure and exceeding Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile indicates a prominent presence of individuals aged 25-34 (13.8%) compared to the national average, while those aged 65-74 (11.2%) are comparatively smaller than in Rest of Vic.. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 10.3% to 11.6%, and the 25-34 cohort has increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 65-74 age group has decreased from 12.4% to 11.2%, and those aged 55-64 have dropped from 12.9% to 11.8%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Bairnsdale's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 group is projected to grow by 61%, adding 692 people and reaching a total of 1,838 from its current figure of 1,145. In contrast, the 75-84 cohort shows minimal growth, with an increase of just 7% (48 people).