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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
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Bairnsdale has an estimated 7,519 residents, down from 7,905 at the 2021 Census — a change of 386 people, or 4.9%. The population has thinned by an average 0.6% a year over five years, slower than 99% of areas nationally. 148 new addresses have been validated here since Census night. That puts 121 residents on each square kilometre. Population is estimated from ABS Estimated Resident Population releases and GNAF address data, re-based from the 2021 Census and updated annually.
Detail
In the suburb of Bairnsdale, demographic evaluation integrating broader ABS statistical releases with post-Census address validations by AreaSearch indicates a resident total of approximately 7,519 as of Aug 2026. Comparing this against the 2021 Census tally of 7,905 people reveals a net contraction of 386 people (4.9%). This figure builds upon the June 2025 ABS ERP release indicating 7,506 residents, supplemented by 148 validated new addresses recorded since Census night. Spatially, this corresponds to 120 persons per square kilometer, highlighting low density, extensive living space, and room for potential expansion.
Interstate migration has served as the primary growth contributor, accounting for roughly 54.0% of recent population additions. Demographic modelling for the suburb of Bairnsdale incorporates 2024 ABS/Geoscience Australia projections using 2022 as a base, supplemented where necessary by the 2023 VIC State Government Regional/LGA projections converted via weighted aggregation to SA2 levels, alongside cohort-specific growth parameters applied across 2032 to 2041. Over the coming years, long-term projections place the suburb of Bairnsdale in the upper quartile of regional non-capital growth destinations, with aggregated SA2 figures forecasting a gain of 2,760 persons by 2041, representing a 36.5% expansion over the 16 years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
254 new dwellings have been approved in Bairnsdale over the past five years, an average of 50 a year. That is 7.2 approvals per 1,000 residents. Of the 55 dwellings approved in the latest reporting year, 95% were detached houses and the rest townhouses or apartments. Approvals are currently running at an annualised 24, well below that longer-run average. Figures come from ABS building approvals aggregated to this Suburb (SAL) boundary and are updated monthly as the ABS releases them.
Detail
Building approval figures compiled by AreaSearch from ABS data indicate an annual run-rate of approximately 50 dwellings in Bairnsdale, totalling 254 homes approved across the past 5 financial years between FY-21 and FY-25, alongside 24 recorded to date in FY-25. Set against recent population reductions, this level of residential construction offers sound supply conditions for incoming purchasers, with typical expected construction costs averaging $370,000 in line with regional Victorian benchmarks. Furthermore, non-residential planning remains active, evidenced by $20.1 million in commercial approvals lodged during the current financial year. Per capita construction activity in Bairnsdale closely mirrors the Rest of Vic.
benchmark, fostering steady market conditions across the township. Detached standalone homes represent 95.0% of recent residential development approvals, while medium and high-density housing constitutes the remaining 5.0%, preserving a low-density urban footprint oriented toward spacious family living. The ratio of 341 people per residential approval highlights an unhurried, measured pace of local development. Longer-term demographic forecasts from AreaSearch quarterly modeling indicate Bairnsdale will expand by 2,747 residents by 2041. If residential building continues at its current volume, dwelling creation may fail to match population expansion, creating tighter market conditions that could heighten buyer competition and stimulate home values.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Bairnsdale
SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
AreaSearch tracks 2 current infrastructure and development projects inside Bairnsdale, worth an estimated $40 million. A further 29 sit in the immediately surrounding suburbs, taking the tracked pipeline within reach of the area to $1.26 billion. 11 are already under construction and 12 are due for completion within three years. The pipeline spans communities, precincts & urban renewal, residential development and sports & recreation. Records are compiled from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, council planning portals and public announcements, reviewed and updated daily, then ranked by proximity, construction stage, completion horizon and project scale.
Detail
Capital investments and strategic urban planning form critical catalysts for regional progress and community capacity. A total of 4 major projects with local significance have been tracked by AreaSearch. Among these key initiatives are Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, and Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision.
Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.
INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Quest Bairnsdale
Construction of a three-storey, 60-room apartment hotel comprising studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom serviced apartments[cite: 1]. Developed in partnership between Dahlsens and BFN Developments, the hotel is designed to boost regional tourism and corporate accommodation capacity in East Gippsland[cite: 1]. The facility includes conference facilities, a gymnasium, business lounge, and on-site parking[cite: 1].
Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale
A 1,250 square metre state-of-the-art Dan Murphy's liquor store developed by Castlerock Property in the East Gippsland town of Bairnsdale, generating approximately 60 jobs during construction and 20 ongoing full-time, casual, and part-time positions, with a 10-year lease and emphasis on local labour and suppliers.
Paynesville Water Recycling Plant Winter Storage Project
Construction of a new 300 megalitre winter storage lagoon and associated transfer infrastructure at the Paynesville Water Recycling Plant. The project expands recycled water storage capacity to improve wet weather wastewater management, protect local waterways and support future growth across Paynesville, Eagle Point, Raymond Island, Newlands Arm and Banksia Peninsula. The project was delivered by Max Bright and Sons for East Gippsland Water and completed before winter 2026.
Lincoln Lifestyle Eagle Point
A premium masterplanned over-50s land lease community by Lincoln Place delivering 203 architecturally designed two- and three-bedroom single-storey homes on a 10.2-hectare site near Paynesville in Victoria's Gippsland Lakes region. Civil works commenced with a sod-turn ceremony on 15 March 2026, with local contractor Rowe Constructions engaged. First residents are expected in early 2027. Resort-style amenities will include a clubhouse with cinema, library and alfresco dining, a heated indoor pool, wellness centre with gym, competition bowls green, and a pickleball court.Homes are built to Liveable Housing Australia Silver Standard and include solar panels and water tanks. The land lease model means no stamp duty, entry, exit, body-corporate or council rates for homeowners.
Palm Lake Resort Paynesville
Luxury over-50s resort-style community featuring 195 designer homes, a world-class Latitude Country Club with extensive amenities including Milon Gymnasium, pools, cinema, and bowling green in a lakeside setting. The resort is currently under construction, with an estimated completion date of 2027.
Encore Living Paynesville
A resort-style, pet-friendly retirement village for independent over-50s in the Gippsland Lakes region, featuring 93 two- and three-bedroom villas and a community hub with a salt-chlorinated indoor pool, gym, lounge, and dining areas. Construction on display villas and the village has commenced, with an expanded plan for up to 130 independent living units.
Paynesville Slip Road Maritime Precinct Upgrade
A comprehensive upgrade of the Paynesville maritime precinct involving the replacement of aging seawalls and the construction of new jetties to provide approximately 40 new berths. The project includes a significant expansion of the boat ramp to be longer and deeper, enhanced car and boat trailer parking, and the creation of new boardwalks and pedestrian pathways. Integrated landscaping and drainage improvements are also being implemented to support regional tourism and the local marine industry.
Shearwater Residential Development (59-Lot Stage)
Proposal by Resi Ventures for the first stage of the Shearwater development, which involves a 59-lot residential subdivision on 10.702 hectares. The project includes roads, paths, landscaping, a public reserve, drainage, stormwater treatment, and habitat creation for environmental protection. It is a Controlled Action under the EPBC Act due to potential impacts on Latham Snipe and the Gippsland Lakes Ramsar Site. The wider Shearwater project is ultimately planned for 485 lots.
3,296 residents of Bairnsdale are employed, from a labour force of 3,489. Unemployment sits at 5.5%, with participation at 55.7%. Weighted for its industry mix, the area's sectors are forecast to grow about 6.1% nationally over five years. That reflects industry composition only and makes no allowance for local population growth. Unemployment and labour force come from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, updated quarterly; the industry and occupation profile is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Workforce analysis reveals a diversified occupational base in Bairnsdale spanning essential services alongside white and blue collar vocations, characterized by a 5.5% unemployment rate and annual job creation of 3.7% according to AreaSearch statistical aggregations. Across the locality, 3,296 residents are actively employed as of March 2026, though the jobless rate sits 1.8% higher than the Regional Vic. benchmark of 3.7%, and the local participation rate of 55.7% trails the regional figure of 61.1%. Remote work adoption remains modest, with 9.6% of workers working from home per Census findings, which were subject to Covid-19 restrictions.
Local resident employment is heavily weighted toward health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing representation is especially pronounced, exceeding regional workforce concentrations by 1.3 times. Conversely, the agriculture, forestry & fishing industry accounts for 5.0% of local workers, falling below the 7.5% recorded across Regional Vic.. A comparison between the resident workforce and locally based employment numbers points to a relatively constrained volume of jobs within the immediate boundary. According to ABS and SALM metrics compiled by AreaSearch, Bairnsdale recorded a 3.7% increase in employment alongside a 2.0% expansion in the labour pool in the twelve months to March 2026, lowering the unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. saw employment contract by 0.1% and the labour force decline by 0.3%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point drop in unemployment. National outlooks from Jobs and Skills Australia as of Mar-26 project economy-wide job growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Weighting these sectoral forecasts against Bairnsdale's existing industry distribution suggests local employment growth of 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, serving as an illustrative extrapolation that excludes localized demographic modeling.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Median household income in Bairnsdale is $1,101 a week (about $57,000 a year), with median personal income at $634 a week. ATO records put median taxable income at $44,530 a year against an average of $52,914. Household income is from the 2021 Census; taxable income is from ATO Taxation Statistics for the latest financial year available, indexed forward using the ABS Wage Price Index.
Detail
ATO taxation data for financial year 2023 indicates taxpayers in the suburb of Bairnsdale earned a median income of $44,530 and an average of $52,914, falling short of national benchmarks as well as Regional Vic. averages of $50,954 and $62,728. Accounting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, modeled figures as of March 2026 sit at approximately $48,814 for median earnings and $58,004 for average earnings. Census metrics place household, personal, and family incomes across Bairnsdale between the 7th and 16th percentiles across Australia.
The $800 - 1,499 weekly bracket forms the largest cohort, comprising 28.3% of residents (2,127 people), unlike the broader region where the $1,500 - 2,999 range represents 30.3%. High living costs leave residents with 84.8% of income remaining, placing the area in the 9th percentile for affordability.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Bairnsdale had 3,300 occupied dwellings at the 2021 Census, 84% detached houses and 1% apartments. 27% are owned with a mortgage, 35% rented and 38% owned outright. At that Census the median rent was $270 a week and the median mortgage repayment $1,192 a month. Rent absorbs 24.5% of household income here and mortgage repayments 25.0%. Dwelling stock, tenure and housing costs are 2021 Census measures — the only source that counts dwellings at this boundary size.
Detail
The local housing stock at the most recent Census was composed of 84.2% separate houses and 15.7% other dwellings including semi-detached residences and apartments, compared with 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings throughout Regional Vic.. Outright home ownership accounted for 38.2% of occupied private dwellings, trailing broader regional benchmarks, while properties owned with a mortgage stood at 27.2% and rental tenure reached 34.5%. Median monthly mortgage costs were comparatively modest at $1,192 against $1,430 for Regional Vic. and $1,863 nationally. Similarly, typical weekly rent sat at $270, below the regional median of $285 and the national benchmark of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Bairnsdale counted 3,300 households at the 2021 Census, averaging 2.2 people each. 20% are couples with children, fewer than in 88% of areas nationally, against 25% couples without children. 38% of households are people living alone, and families average 1.8 children. Household and family composition is measured only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Families constitute 59.1% of all households within the area, consisting of couples without children at 24.9%, couples with children at 19.5%, and single parent families at 13.5%. The remaining 40.9% consists of non-family arrangements, dominated by single-person households at 37.5% and group share houses at 3.4%. The average household size stands at 2.2 people, below the Regional Vic. standard of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
16.6% of adults in Bairnsdale hold a university qualification, including 11.2% with a bachelor degree and 3.0% with postgraduate qualifications. A further 28.7% hold a vocational qualification. 9 schools serve the area, with 3,207 enrolment places and an average ICSEA of 963 against a national benchmark of 1,000. Qualifications come from the 2021 Census; school enrolments, ICSEA and results come from ACARA's current release.
Detail
Attainment figures show that 16.6% of local residents possess a tertiary degree, sitting well below the broader VIC benchmark of 33.4% and highlighting scope for further educational development. Bachelor degrees constitute 11.2% of qualifications, complemented by postgraduate awards at 3.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational education forms a major pillar of the local skill base, with 39.6% of residents aged 15+ holding technical credentials, comprising 28.7% with certificates and 10.9% holding advanced diplomas. General educational engagement remains strong across the community, with 27.6% of the local population actively participating in study.
Breaking down these enrolments, primary school students make up 10.2%, secondary education accounts for 7.3%, and tertiary institutions represent 2.7%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Public transport in Bairnsdale reaches 31 stops on 12 routes, timetabled for about 280 services a week. The typical home sits about 290 m from its nearest stop. Households keep an average of 1.2 vehicles. Stop and service counts are built from operators' published GTFS timetables and refresh with each timetable release; vehicle ownership is from the 2021 Census.
Detail
Local public transit infrastructure features 31 active passenger stops across Bairnsdale, encompassing train connections. These facilities are linked across 12 distinct routes providing a combined 279 weekly services, ensuring solid accessibility with an average distance of 286 meters from local homes to the closest boarding point. Commuting is heavily outbound and car-centric, with private vehicles accounting for 92% of work journeys and 5% completed on foot. Private motor vehicle availability sits at 1.2 vehicles per dwelling, trailing regional standards, while 9.6% of residents worked remotely at the 2021 Census during a period affected by COVID-19.
Transit route scheduling provides a collective average of 39 daily trips, which translates into approximately 9 weekly departures across each individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
59.7% of residents in Bairnsdale report no long-term health condition, a less healthy profile than 87% of areas nationally. 9.1% need daily assistance with core activities, and 47.8% hold private health cover. The standardised death rate runs at 7.2 per 1,000 residents. Health conditions, assistance needs and insurance are 2021 Census measures; the death rate comes from current ABS releases.
Detail
Community wellness data evaluated by AreaSearch reveals meaningful challenges, with elevated prevalence of chronic illnesses and mortality rates visible across both younger and older cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is constrained, held by roughly 48% of the local population (~3,597 people), which compares against 50.5% in Regional Vic. and 55.7% across Australia. Mental health conditions and arthritis represent the primary diagnosed medical ailments in the locality, affecting 11.2 and 10.1% of residents respectively, whereas 59.7% of the community reported having no long-term medical conditions compared to 63.4% throughout Regional Vic..
Chronic disease rates remain elevated within working-age groups, while individuals aged 65 and over account for 26.2% of the population (1,969 people), surpassing the 24.0% regional proportion and driving higher national health-risk percentiles.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Bairnsdale is largely Australian-born, at 87.3% of residents, with 6.9% speaking a language other than English at home. The largest reported ancestries are English (31.3%) and Australian (31.0%). 4.4% of residents identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. Ancestry, language and country of birth are counted only by the Census, so these are 2021 figures.
Detail
Cultural diversity metrics for Bairnsdale show a largely homogeneous population, with Australian citizenship held by 88.0% of residents, 87.3% born domestically, and 93.1% communicating exclusively in English at home. Christianity represents the most prominent religious affiliation, followed by 44.7% of residents. The Other religious grouping accounts for 0.8% of the population, aligning with the 0.8% benchmark for Regional Vic.. English ancestry represents the most prevalent cultural background at 31.3% of the community, followed closely by Australian at 31.0% and Scottish at 7.9%. Indigenous Australians comprise 4.4% of Bairnsdale residents, representing a noticeable difference from the 1.4% regional average, while people of Dutch background make up 1.5% (compared to 1.7% regionally) and Filipino ancestry accounts for 1.2% (against 0.6% across the wider region).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
The median resident of Bairnsdale is 44, older than 76% of areas nationally. 23.3% of residents are aged 15 to 34. Age cohorts are not raw Census counts: the Census split is re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections.
Detail
Age distributions in Bairnsdale closely track Regional Vic. patterns, with the maximum variation across cohorts being 2.2 percentage points. AreaSearch estimates the median age at 44 as at August 2026, matching the 2021 Census figure and sitting 1 year older than the regional standard of 43 at that Census, whilst the national median stood at 38. The mature working-age and pre-retirement bracket (45 - 64) has receded from 23.9% at the Census to an estimated 22.3%. Looking forward to 2041, the 25 - 44 age cohort is forecast to experience the largest numerical increase, adding 1,039 residents (58%) to reach 2,836.
Frequently Asked Questions - Age
Data & MethodBoundaries, Sources & Method for Bairnsdale
9 of 14 data sections on this page were updated within the last 12 months — the newest current to Oct 2026.
Everything is aggregated to the Suburb (SAL) boundary shown above, on a 2021 Census baseline. Only 3 sections — housing, households and cultural diversity — still wait on the 2026 Census.
The ledger — source, cycle and currency by section
| Section | Source & update cycle | Currency |
|---|---|---|
| Updated within the last 12 months 9 sections | ||
| Population | ABS, GNAF, Geoscience Australia Annual (ABS ERP) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release) and updated with new dwellings from GNAF address data. Current to Aug 2026, with the 2021 Census supplying the small-area baseline. | ||
| Age profile | ABS, Geoscience Australia, State governments Annual | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Age cohorts are re-based to the latest ABS population estimates and state projections, current to Aug 2026. Each cohort is held as a Census baseline and a current estimate. | ||
| Development & approvals | ABS, GNAF Monthly (ABS approvals) | Aug 2026 2 months ago headline measures · Jul 2026 baseline |
| Property sales & rents | Valuer General, Rental Board, ABS Weekly sales, quarterly rents | Oct 2026 this month headline measures · Sep 2026 baseline |
| Sales from the state Valuer General register, refreshed weekly, and rents from quarterly rental bond lodgements. Both are read live each time this page loads, current to Oct 2026. | ||
| Infrastructure projects | Infrastructure Australia, State agencies, Local governments Daily | Aug 2026 2 months ago all 2 projects tracked here |
| Project pipeline maintained continuously from Infrastructure Australia, state agencies, local government and public announcements. Records are added and revised daily; this area was last updated Aug 2026. | ||
| Employment | ABS, DEWR, JSA Quarterly (ABS SALM) | Mar 2026 7 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Unemployment and labour force from ABS Small Area Labour Markets, current to Mar 2026. The growth outlook applies Department of Employment (now Jobs and Skills Australia) forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to the local industry mix, so it measures sector composition rather than local expansion and makes no allowance for population growth. Job demand comes from the same agency via its Internet Vacancy Index; industry and occupation structure from the 2021 Census. | ||
| Education | ABS, ACARA Annual (ACARA) | Sep 2026 last month headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Transport | ABS, State Transport Departments Each timetable release | Jul 2026 3 months ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Services & amenities | Provider directories, ACECQA Continuous | Sep 2026 last month all 14 measures |
| Annual and financial-year sources 2 sections | ||
| Income | ABS, ATO Annual (ATO) | FY 2023 3 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| ATO taxable income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index. Census household income provides the distribution detail. | ||
| Health | ABS, ATO Annual | 2024 2 years ago headline measures · 2021 Census baseline |
| Census-measured — next update: 2026 Census 3 sections No more current small-area source exists for these, so they are labelled as Census-measured rather than implied to be current. | ||
| Housing | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 30 measures |
| Households | ABS 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 18 measures |
| Cultural diversity | ABS, Geoscience Australia 5-yearly (Census) | 2021 Census next update 2026 all 44 measures |
"Currency" is the most recent release feeding that section. Where the Census supplies the structural baseline underneath a current headline figure, the row says so.
How the numbers are built
Population
The Census provides the small-area baseline, aggregated from mesh blocks to this boundary. It is then re-based to the ABS Estimated Resident Population (June 2025 release), and new dwellings built since Census night are counted from address data — 148 validated new addresses here. The headline figure is therefore a current estimate for Aug 2026, not a 2021 count (7,905 at the 2021 Census → 7,519 now). Annual growth rates are compound (CAGR), not simple averages.
Age profile
Cohort shares are not raw Census counts. Every cohort is held as a pair — the Census baseline and a current estimate — and the split is re-based using ERP and state population projections, current to Aug 2026. Median age is the Census median plus modelled change since. Charts that show both are labelled "2021 Census vs Current Estimate".
Property sales
Sourced from the state valuation authority's sales register — current, not Census, and refreshed weekly. Medians are calculated from settled transactions in the period shown; periods with very low transaction counts are flagged or suppressed, because a handful of sales can move a median substantially.
Rents
Derived from state rental bond lodgement data, by dwelling type and bedroom count. Bonds are lodged at the start of a new tenancy, so this reflects new lettings, not the whole rented stock.
Development & infrastructure
Building approvals come from current ABS releases; development applications are collected from council and state planning portals; the infrastructure pipeline is compiled from Infrastructure Australia and local government sources. Applications are matched to this boundary by address or coordinates, so very recent lodgements may not yet appear.
Employment & income
Industry and occupation structure comes from the Census, but the headline labour-market indicators do not. Unemployment and labour force are derived from ABS Small Area Labour Markets (quarterly). The employment outlook applies Department of Employment forecasts for all 19 industry divisions to this area's own industry mix (the agency is now Jobs and Skills Australia), as does the Internet Vacancy Index used for job demand. Because it is weighted on industry composition alone, that outlook carries no allowance for local population growth — in fast-growing areas the real rise in local jobs will typically be higher. Income combines Census household income with ATO taxable-income statistics for FY 2023, indexed forward using the Wage Price Index.
Education, transport & amenities
School enrolments, ICSEA and performance come from ACARA's current release, not the Census. Public transport stops and service frequency are derived from GTFS timetable feeds published by state transport departments. Services and amenities are proximity and count scores built from provider directories, refreshed on their own cycle. The Census contributes only the travel-to-work and qualification measures.
Rankings and benchmarks. Where we rank this area, the comparison set is every area of the same boundary type — suburbs against suburbs, SA2s against SA2s. Benchmarks compare this area against its greater capital city region and the national figure for the same measure and period.
Limits worth knowing. Small areas carry larger error margins, and the ABS introduces small random adjustments to Census counts to protect confidentiality — so totals may not sum exactly. Estimates re-based from regional data describe the area's expected trajectory, not a direct count of it. Figures are indicative for research and are not financial, planning or valuation advice.
Cross-check us. The Census baseline for this boundary is at ABS 2021 Census QuickStats (SAL20103). QuickStats reports 2021 only — the figures on this page are more current wherever the ledger shows a later date.