Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Bairnsdale's population is estimated at around 7,502 as of May 2026. This reflects a decrease of 403 people (5.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,905 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,498, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, and an additional 134 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 120 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecast, with the suburb expected to grow by 2,781 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 37.0% in total over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Bairnsdale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bairnsdale has seen around 46 new homes approved per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, approximately 230 homes were approved. In FY26 so far, 38 homes have been approved.

The average population growth associated with these approvals is 0.2 people per year per dwelling. This suggests that new construction is matching or outpacing demand in the area, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $408,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

In FY26, $20.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Bairnsdale compared to the rest of Victoria. When measured nationally, Bairnsdale shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and places among the 81st percentile of areas assessed. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. New building activity in Bairnsdale is dominated by detached dwellings, with 93.0% of approvals for this type of housing and only 7.0% for townhouses or apartments. This preserves the area's low density nature and attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 132 people per dwelling approval, Bairnsdale shows characteristics of a low density area. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, population forecasts indicate that Bairnsdale will gain approximately 2,777 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag behind population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the area.

Bairnsdale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely affecting this region. Notable projects include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Bairnsdale shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Bairnsdale has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 5.6% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 5.8%. As of December 2025, 3,305 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation was lower at 55.9%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Only 9.6% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing, with a notable concentration in manufacturing at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had lower representation at 5.0% versus the regional average of 7.5%.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited based on Census data comparison of working population to resident population. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 5.8%, labour force increased by 3.8%, and unemployment fell by 1.8 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Bairnsdale had a median income among taxpayers of $44,530 and an average income of $52,914 in the financial year 2023. These figures are lower than those for Regional Vic., which were $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, the estimated median income in Bairnsdale as of March 2026 would be approximately $48,814, with an average income of around $58,004. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Bairnsdale fall between the 7th and 16th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile shows that 28.3% of residents (2,123 people) earn between $800 - 1,499 per week, while in the region, 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bairnsdale, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bairnsdale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.2% houses and 15.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was at 38.2%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (27.2%) or rented (34.5%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,192, below Regional Vic.'s average. Median weekly rent was $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 59.1% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (28.7%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.2% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Bairnsdale shows that there are currently 31 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train services and are served by 12 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 261 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in Bairnsdale is considered good, with residents typically located approximately 286 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most residents commute outward for work or other purposes. The car remains the primary mode of transportation, used by 92% of residents, while walking accounts for 5%.

On average, there are 1.2 vehicles per dwelling in Bairnsdale, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, only 9.6% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes averages approximately 37 trips per day, equating to around 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bairnsdale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age cohorts exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. Private health cover is low in Bairnsdale, at approximately 48% (around 3,588 people), compared to 50.5% across Regional Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents respectively. However, 59.7% of residents claim to be completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 25.6% (around 1,920 people), than Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present notable challenges, with national rankings even worse than the general population.

Bairnsdale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per data from the 2016 Census, showed lower cultural diversity with 88.0% of its population being Australian citizens and 87.3% born in Australia. English was the language spoken at home by 93.1%. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 44.7%.

The 'Other' religious category was marginally higher than regional averages (0.8% vs 0.6%). Ancestry-wise, English (31.3%) and Australian (31.0%) were the top two groups, followed by Scottish at 7.9%. Notable differences existed for Australian Aboriginal (4.4%, compared to 1.4% regionally), Dutch (1.5%, vs 1.7%), and Filipino (1.2%, vs 0.6%).

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher percentage of 25-34 year-olds (13.2%) but fewer 45-54 year-olds (10.3%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.3% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 12.9% to 12.0%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group will grow by 69%, adding 685 people, reaching a total of 1,676 from the current 990. The 75-84 group will grow by 10%, adding 72 residents.