Bairnsdale

Bairnsdale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population of Bairnsdale is around 57,196, reflecting an increase of 3,678 people since the 2021 Census. This growth rate of 6.9% exceeds that of the SA3 area and non-metro areas, making Bairnsdale a growth leader in the region. The population density is estimated at 919 persons per square kilometer. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses since the Census date, based on their examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an estimated resident population of 7,931 for Bairnsdale. Interstate migration was the primary driver of this growth, with overseas migration and natural growth playing minimal roles. AreaSearch's projections for Bairnsdale are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 are used, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 6,110 persons by 2041, reflecting a gain of 12.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Bairnsdale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data, Bairnsdale saw around 185 new homes approved per year. Between FY2021 and FY2025, approximately 928 homes were approved, with a further 49 approved in FY2026 so far. On average, 3.2 people moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five financial years.

This high demand exceeds new supply, typically leading to price growth and increased buyer competition. New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $859,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY2026, $87.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows approximately 64% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 80th percentile nationally.

New building activity comprises 95.0% standalone homes and 5.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. This marks a departure from existing housing patterns, currently at 188.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated count of 516 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Bairnsdale should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Bairnsdale has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, and Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Bairnsdale remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Bairnsdale has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 6.1% as of the past year.

Employment growth was estimated at 5.7%. As of June 2025, 14,692 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 2.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Bairnsdale was 94.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%.

Key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and manufacturing. Health care & social assistance has particularly notable concentration, with employment levels at 2.0 times the regional average. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census working population to local population count. In the 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 5.7% while labour force increased by 5.0%, resulting in a 0.6 percentage point fall in unemployment. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.9%, labour force decline of 0.4%, and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 5.7% over five years and 12.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

Bairnsdale's median income among taxpayers was $88,218 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $105,508 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of Vic., which had a median income of $48,741 and an average income of $60,693. By September 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16%, current estimates suggest Bairnsdale's median income will be approximately $98,945 and the average income around $118,338. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Bairnsdale all fall between the 4th and 4th percentiles nationally. In terms of income distribution, 60.4% of individuals earn within the $400 - $799 range, unlike trends in the region where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket. The concentration of 79.4% in sub-$800 weekly brackets highlights economic challenges facing a significant portion of Bairnsdale's community. Despite modest housing costs with 175.8% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at just the 14th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Bairnsdale, the latest Census showed that 187.6% of dwellings were houses, with 12.4% being other types such as semi-detached homes and apartments. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic., where 90.9% of dwellings are houses and 9.2% are other types. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was at 100.2%, with mortgaged dwellings making up 66.8% and rented ones 32.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,254, higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,863. Weekly rent in Bairnsdale was $460, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268 and the national average of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 128.2% of all households, including 42.4% couples with children, 62.6% couples without children, and 21.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute -28.2%, with lone person households at 67.0% and group households making up 4.8%. The median household size is 4.4 people, larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational attainment in Bairnsdale aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational attainment in Bairnsdale is notably high, with 28.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding university qualifications. This compares to 17.1% in the SA3 area and 18.1% in the SA4 region. Bachelor degrees are most common at 19.4%, followed by graduate diplomas (4.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (4.2%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 80.4% of residents aged 15 and above holding them.

Advanced diplomas account for 19.8% and certificates for 60.6%. Educational participation is high at 53.8%, including 21.0% in primary education, 17.2% in secondary education, and 4.8% pursuing tertiary education. There are nine schools operating within Bairnsdale, educating approximately 3,207 students. The area has balanced educational opportunities (ICSEA: 963). It includes four primary, three secondary, and two K-12 schools. Bairnsdale functions as an education hub with 21.4 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 12.1. This attracts students from surrounding communities. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bairnsdale has 268 active public transport stops. These include train and bus services. There are 90 routes in total, offering 1,622 weekly passenger trips combined.

Transport accessibility is limited with residents usually located 1850 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are 231 trips per day across all routes, which equals approximately 6 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Bairnsdale faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 6% (around 3,224 people) out of a total population of about 53,787. This contrasts with the Rest of Vic's rate of 46.4%, and the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 24.6% and 21.6% of residents respectively. However, 113.6% claim to be free from any medical ailments, compared to Rest of Vic's 60.1%. Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over, at 55.8% (around 31,915 people), compared to the Rest of Vic's 30.5%.

The latest Census data sees Bairnsdale placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per data from 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity index of -3.7, indicating below average diversity. It recorded 177.0% of its population as Australian citizens, 179.4% born in Australia, and 194.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practised by 95.2% of residents.

Notably, Judaism had a higher representation in Bairnsdale at 0.2%, compared to 0.1% across Rest of Vic.. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (68.0%), Australian (65.2%), and Scottish (18.6%), each significantly higher than regional averages of 33.4%, 30.2%, and 9.0% respectively. Other notable divergences included Dutch (3.2% vs regional 1.9%), Maltese (1.2% vs 0.4%), and Hungarian (0.6% vs 0.1%).

Bairnsdale ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Bairnsdale's median age of 99 years is notably higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and substantially exceeds the national average of 38 years. The demographic profile closely mirrors the broader Rest of Vic. pattern, with a concentration in the 65-74 age group that is well above the national average of 9.4%. Between 2021 and the present, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 18.6% to 21.1%, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 17.6% to 19.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 27.4% to 25.1%, and the 5 to 14 age group has dropped from 22.6% to 20.4%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Bairnsdale's age structure. The 85+ group is projected to grow by -47% (-1,616 people), reaching 1,838 from a current total of 3,454. Population declines are projected for the 0 to 4 and 85+ age cohorts.