Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Bairnsdale's estimated population is around 8,298. This reflects an increase of 393 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,905. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,802 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 144 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 133 persons per square kilometer. Bairnsdale's growth rate of 5.0% since census positions it within 1.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.4%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the Bairnsdale SA2 is forecasted to grow by 3,081 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 31.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bairnsdale when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bairnsdale has seen around 46 new homes approved per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 232 homes have been approved, with a further 19 approved so far in FY-26. This indicates that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth.

The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five years is 0.6 per year. The average expected construction cost value of new properties being constructed is $408,000, suggesting that developers are focusing on the premium market with high-end developments. In terms of commercial development, $20.1 million in approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating balanced commercial development activity.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows approximately 75% of the construction activity per person and places among the 81st percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. The majority of new building activity consists of detached dwellings, with 93.0%, while townhouses or apartments make up 7.0%. This preserves the area's low density nature and attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 131 people per dwelling approval, Bairnsdale indeed shows characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Bairnsdale will gain 2,584 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Bairnsdale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified four infrastructure projects that could impact the area. These include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, and Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those likely to be most relevant.

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Bairnsdale shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Bairnsdale, as of September 2025, has an unemployment rate of 5.9%. In the past year, there was a 5.3% growth in employment.

There are currently 3,463 residents employed, with the unemployment rate being 2.2% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation stands at 51.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key industries in Bairnsdale are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing shows a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 5.3%, while labour force increased by 3.6%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment by 1.5 percentage points. State-level data from VIC up to 25-Nov-25 shows employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Bairnsdale has an income level lower than average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year ended June 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Bairnsdale is $44,530 and the average income stands at $52,914. These figures compare to those of Rest of Vic., which are $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates for Bairnsdale would be approximately $48,204 (median) and $57,279 (average) as of September 2025. Census data from 2021 shows household, family and personal incomes in Bairnsdale all fall between the 7th and 16th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the $800 - 1,499 income bracket dominates with 28.3% of residents (2,348 people), unlike regional trends where 30.3% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bairnsdale, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Bairnsdale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 84.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.7% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This compares to Non-Metro Vic., where 90.9% of dwellings are houses and 9.2% are other types. Home ownership in Bairnsdale stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged properties at 27.2% and rented ones at 34.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,192, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Weekly rent in Bairnsdale was $270, slightly higher than Non-Metro Vic.'s figure of $268. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,192 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households comprise 59.1% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which matches the average in the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (2.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (28.7%). Educational participation is high, with 27.6% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.2% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 31 active stops operating in Bairnsdale, consisting of train and bus services. These are served by 12 routes offering 261 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average distance to the nearest stop is 286 meters, indicating good accessibility.

Service frequency averages 37 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 8 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Bairnsdale, with high prevalence of common conditions across younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48%, compared to the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues affect 11.2% of residents, while arthritis impacts 10.1%. About 60% declare no medical ailments, slightly lower than Rest of Vic's 60.1%. The area has 24.7% aged 65 and over (2,049 people), lower than Rest of Vic's 30.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population in certain metrics.

Bairnsdale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per the census conducted on Tuesday 9 June 2020, showed lower than average cultural diversity with 88.0% of its population being Australian citizens and 87.3% born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 93.1%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 44.7%.

The 'Other' religious category was slightly overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to 0.6% regionally. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (31.3%), Australian (31.0%), and Scottish (7.9%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal people were more represented in Bairnsdale at 4.4% compared to 2.5% regionally, while Dutch and Filipino communities were also relatively larger at 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher percentage of 25-34 year-olds (13.3%) but fewer 45-54 year-olds (10.5%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.3% to 11.4%, while the 55-64 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.9%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 67% (adding 743 people), reaching 1,847 from the current 1,103. The 75-84 group is expected to grow modestly by 2%, adding only 16 residents.