Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Bairnsdale's population is estimated at around 8,298 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 393 people (5.0%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,905 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,802, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 140 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 133 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Bairnsdale's 5.0% growth since census positions it within 1.5 percentage points of the SA3 area (6.5%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecast, with the suburb expected to grow by 3,100 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 31.4% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is slightly higher than average within Bairnsdale when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Bairnsdale has seen approximately 46 new homes approved per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY21 and FY25, around 230 homes have been approved, with an additional 24 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 0.6 people per year have moved to the area for each dwelling built during this period.

This suggests that new construction is matching or outpacing demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially enabling population growth beyond current expectations. The average expected construction cost value of these properties is approximately $408,000, indicating a focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY26 alone, $20.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity in Bairnsdale compared to other areas.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows around 75% of the construction activity per person and places among the 81st percentile of areas assessed nationally. However, development activity has picked up in recent periods. New building activity in Bairnsdale is dominated by detached dwellings, with 93.0% of approvals for this type of housing compared to just 7.0% for townhouses or apartments. This preserves the area's low density nature and attracts space-seeking buyers. With around 132 people per dwelling approval, Bairnsdale indeed shows characteristics of a low density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Bairnsdale is forecasted to gain approximately 2,604 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply could potentially lag behind population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth in the area.

Bairnsdale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely affecting this region. Major projects include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, and Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Bairnsdale shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Bairnsdale has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area. The unemployment rate was 5.7% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 7.2% over the past year.

This is based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 3493 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.0% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Bairnsdale was somewhat lower at 56.8%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. According to Census responses, only 9.6% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries for employment among Bairnsdale's residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and manufacturing. Manufacturing stands out with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing show lower representation at 5.0% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 7.2% while labour force grew by 5.1%, resulting in a fall in unemployment by 1.9 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional Vic., which saw employment decline by 0.6%, labour force decline by 0.7%, and unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Bairnsdale. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. However, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Bairnsdale has a lower income level compared to national averages, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest ATO data for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Bairnsdale is $44,530, with an average income of $52,914. These figures compare to Regional Vic.'s median and average incomes of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Based on a 8.25% growth in wages since financial year 2023, current estimates for Bairnsdale's median income are approximately $48,204 by September 2025, with an average of around $57,279. Census data from 2021 shows that incomes in Bairnsdale fall between the 7th and 16th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The earnings profile indicates that the majority of residents (28.3%, or 2,348 people) earn within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, unlike regional trends where more residents fall into the $1,500 - $2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Bairnsdale, with only 84.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 9th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Bairnsdale, as per the latest Census, 84.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 15.7% being semi-detached homes, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale stood at 38.2%, with mortgaged properties at 27.2% and rented dwellings at 34.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,192, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Bairnsdale was $270, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,192 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 59.1% of all households, including 19.5% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 40.9%, with lone person households at 37.5% and group households comprising 3.4%. The median household size is 2.2 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.6%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.6% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 28.7%. Educational participation is high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.2% in primary, 7.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bairnsdale has 31 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 12 routes, providing 261 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents typically located 286 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to Bairnsdale's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 92%, with 5% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 9.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 37 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges in Bairnsdale, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably high prevalence of common health conditions is observed across both younger and older age groups. The rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 48% of the total population (~3,969 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic., and 55.7% nationally.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.2% and 10.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.7% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in Regional Vic. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.5% of residents aged 65 and over (2,033 people), with health outcomes among seniors presenting additional challenges that rank even higher than the general population nationally.

Bairnsdale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, showed lower than average cultural diversity. The population was predominantly Australian citizens, with 88.0% holding citizenship and 87.3% being born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 93.1%.

Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 44.7% of the population. Notably, the 'Other' religious category had a similar representation in Bairnsdale (0.8%) as across Regional Vic (0.8%). In terms of ancestry, English and Australian were the most common, with 31.3% and 31.0% respectively. Scottish ancestry was also significant at 7.9%. Some ethnic groups showed notable differences: Australian Aboriginal were overrepresented in Bairnsdale at 4.4%, compared to 1.4% regionally; Dutch were slightly underrepresented at 1.5% (vs 1.7%); Filipino, however, were overrepresented at 1.2% (vs 0.6%).

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 43, matching Regional Vic.'s figure and exceeding Australia's national average of 38. The age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 are notably prominent at 13.8%, while the 65-74 group is comparatively smaller at 11.4% than in Regional Vic. Between the 2021 Census and now, the population of those aged 35 to 44 has grown from 10.3% to 11.6%, and the 25 to 34 cohort has increased from 12.7% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 group has declined from 12.9% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Bairnsdale's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 62%, adding 704 people and reaching a total of 1,850 from its current figure of 1,145. In contrast, the 75 to 84 cohort shows minimal growth of just 7%, with an increase of only 50 people.