Orbost
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Orbost reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Orbost's population is 6,752 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,727 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 6,719 in June 2024 and an additional 66 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 0.60 persons per square kilometer. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 62.3% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Considering projected demographic shifts, an above median population growth is projected for the area, expected to increase by 1,467 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers. This would record a gain of 21.2% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Orbost recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Orbost has received around 47 dwelling approvals per year on average over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25. A total of 235 homes were approved during this period and an additional 10 have been approved so far in FY-26. On average, only 0.6 people have moved to the area annually for each dwelling built over these five years.

This suggests that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and potentially driving population growth beyond current projections. The average value of new dwellings being developed is $437,000. In FY-26 alone, Orbost has seen $19.8 million in commercial approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development activity.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Orbost has 16.0% less new development per capita but ranks among the 63rd percentile nationally when considering areas assessed. Recent construction in Orbost comprises 85.0% detached houses and 15.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting the area's traditional low-density character with a focus on family homes that appeal to those seeking more space. With around 254 people per dwelling approval, Orbost exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. Population forecasts indicate that Orbost will gain approximately 1,433 residents by the year 2041. Current development trends appear well-matched to future needs, suggesting steady market conditions without significant price pressure.

Orbost has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 23rdth percentile nationally

Two projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Jemmys Point Lookout Stage 2 and Kalimna Loop Walk. Other notable projects include Gippsland Line Upgrade, Eden Cove Estate, and Eden Breakwater Wharf Extension.

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Employment conditions in Orbost face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Orbost's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate as of June 2025 was 7.0%.

There were 2,788 residents employed while the unemployment rate was higher by 3.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%. Workforce participation in Orbost lagged significantly at 46.0%, below Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Employment is concentrated in agriculture, forestry & fishing, health care & social assistance, and education & training. Orbost has a particular employment specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level.

Manufacturing is under-represented at 5.0% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.7%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Over the year to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8% alongside a 2.1% employment decline, causing unemployment rate to rise by 1.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment contract by 0.9%, labour force fall by 0.4%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year adding 39,880 jobs with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Orbost's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 5.7%% over five years and 12.4% over ten years, using a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Orbost's median income among taxpayers was $41,320 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $49,681 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of Vic., which were $48,741 and $60,693 respectively. By March 2025, estimates suggest Orbost's median income would be approximately $45,497 and average income around $54,704, accounting for a 10.11% growth in wages since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Orbost fall between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally. The income distribution shows that 31.7% of residents (2,140 people) earn between $400 and $799 per week, contrasting with the region where the $1,500 to $2,999 bracket is most prevalent at 30.3%. This indicates that a significant proportion of Orbost's residents have constrained household budgets, with 43.1% earning less than $800 per week. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 90.1% income retention, Orbost's total disposable income ranks at the 5th percentile nationally.

Orbost is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Orbost's housing structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 95.6% houses and 4.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Orbost stood at 58.9%, with mortgaged properties making up 22.7% and rented dwellings accounting for 18.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,083, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Weekly rent in Orbost was recorded at $190, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Orbost's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Orbost features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 60.1% of all households, including 17.8% couples with children, 33.1% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up 39.9%, with lone person households at 37.3% and group households comprising 2.7%. The median household size is 2.1 people, smaller than the Rest of Vic average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in Orbost fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 18.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.2%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (29.3%). Educational participation is high at 25.9%, comprising primary education (10.3%), secondary education (7.7%), and tertiary education (2.3%).

There are 13 schools serving 649 students, with typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 969) and balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes 6 primary, 3 secondary, and 4 K-12 schools. School places per 100 residents is 9.6, below the regional average of 12.2, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas. Note: for schools with 'n/a' enrolments, please refer to their parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Orbost has 21 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling nine individual routes. The collective weekly passenger trips provided by these routes amount to 107.

Transport accessibility in Orbost is limited, with residents located an average of 1537 meters from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 15 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately five weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Orbost is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Orbost faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 46%, covering about 3,112 people, compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.4% of residents) and mental health issues (8.8%). A total of 59.6% report no medical ailments, slightly lower than Rest of Vic's 60.1%. Orbost has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 32.6% (2,203 people), compared to the state average of 30.5%. Health outcomes among seniors in Orbost exceed those of the general population.

Orbost is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Orbost, as per the census data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below the national average. It was reported that 86.6% of Orbost's population were Australian citizens, with 88.3% born in Australia and 96.6% speaking English at home exclusively. Christianity was the predominant religion in Orbost, accounting for 39.4% of its population.

Notably, Judaism, at 0.1%, was slightly overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria, where it constituted 0.1%. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups were English (33.0%), Australian (28.7%), and Scottish (9.8%). However, there were significant variations in the representation of certain ethnicities: Dutch at 2.0% compared to 1.9% regionally, Australian Aboriginal at 3.7% versus 2.5%, and Irish at 9.0% against 8.3%.

Orbost ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Orbost's median age at 55 years is significantly higher than Victoria's average of 43 and older than Australia's norm of 38. The age profile shows that those aged 65-74 are notably prominent, making up 19.3% of the population, compared to the national average of 9.4%. Meanwhile, the 25-34 age group is smaller at 7.3%, contrasting with Victoria's average. From 2021 onwards, notable changes include a growth in the 35-44 age group from 8.9% to 10.2%, and declines in the 55-64 cohort from 19.5% to 17.9% and the 45-54 group from 11.9% to 10.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts: the 25-34 age group is expected to rise by 61%, increasing from 492 to 795 people. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort is projected to decrease by 3 people.