Bairnsdale
Statistical Area - sa2

Bairnsdale lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bairnsdale's population is around 16,434 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 750 people (4.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,684 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 16,069 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 640 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 106 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Bairnsdale's 4.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (3.8%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of Australian non-metropolitan areas, with Bairnsdale expected to grow by 6,192 persons to 2041 based on latest numbers, reflecting an increase of 33.8% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Bairnsdale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Bairnsdale has seen approximately 120 new homes approved annually. Development approval data is produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a financial year basis, with a total of 604 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25 and an additional 20 so far in FY-26. On average, over these five years, only 0.4 new residents have been added per year per dwelling constructed. This indicates that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing greater buyer choice while supporting potential for population growth above projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings during this period was $408,000, in line with regional trends. In FY-26, there have been $30.9 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale has similar development levels per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns.

New development consists predominantly of detached houses (95.0%) and a smaller proportion of townhouses or apartments (5.0%), preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 117 people per approval, Bairnsdale reflects a low density area. Future projections show Bairnsdale adding approximately 5,548 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Bairnsdale has limited levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 16thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 12 projects likely to affect this region. Notable ones are Quest Bairnsdale, Gippsland Line Upgrade, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, and Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment drivers in Bairnsdale are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Bairnsdale's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.1% as of June 2025.

There were 6,965 residents employed at this time, an unemployment rate of 2.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 52.2%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The leading employment industries among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing showed notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing had lower representation at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. There was a ratio of 0.6 workers for each resident as per the Census, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. From June 2024 to June 2025, Bairnsdale's labour force decreased by 0.7% and employment declined by 1.0%, resulting in an unemployment rate rise of 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s employment fell by 0.9%, labour force contracted by 0.4%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from Sep-25 showed VIC employment grew by 1.08% year-on-year, adding 39,880 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%. This compared to the national rate of 4.5%, where the state's employment growth outpaced the national average of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected a 6.6% expansion over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.2%% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this was a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and did not account for localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's data for financial year 2022 shows median income in Bairnsdale was $45,514 and average income was $54,083. This is lower than Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. By March 2025, adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 10.11%, median income in Bairnsdale would be approximately $50,115 and average income would be around $59,551. The 2021 Census data shows incomes in Bairnsdale fall between the 13th and 19th percentiles nationally. Incomes of $1,500 - $2,999 represent 28.1% of Bairnsdale's population (4,617 individuals), similar to the broader area where this group represents 30.3%. After housing expenses, 85.9% of income remains in Bairnsdale, ranking at the 16th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bairnsdale, as evaluated at the Census 2016, comprised 86.8% houses and 13.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic had 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was 42.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.0% and rented at 27.9%. Median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Vic's average. Median weekly rent was $280, compared to Non-Metro Vic's $268. Nationally, Bairnsdale's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower at $1,300 against Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, consisting of 22.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households making up 2.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.4%). Educational participation is high at 26.8%, with 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

There are 12 schools serving 3,744 students in the area, which functions as an education hub with 23.2 school places per 100 residents, higher than the regional average of 12.3. The educational mix includes 5 primary, 3 secondary, and 4 K-12 schools. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 965) with balanced educational opportunities.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bairnsdale has 47 operational public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 23 different routes that collectively facilitate 363 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is deemed good, with residents typically residing 334 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 51 daily trips across all routes, translating to around 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Bairnsdale, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 47% (around 7,723 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (9.9%). About 61.6% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 60.1%. Around 25.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (4,172 people), lower than Rest of Vic.'s 30.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors show some challenges but perform better than the general population in certain metrics.

Bairnsdale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, showed lower than average cultural diversity. The population was predominantly Australian citizens, with 89.0% holding citizenship, and 87.8% having been born in Australia. English was spoken at home by 94.3%.

Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 46.2% of Bairnsdale's residents. Notably, the 'Other' religious category had a slightly higher representation in Bairnsdale compared to the rest of Victoria, with 0.7% versus 0.6%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.2%). Some ethnic groups showed variations from regional averages: Dutch at 1.6% compared to 1.9%, Australian Aboriginal at 3.5% versus 2.5%, and Italian at 3.1% against 2.5%.

Bairnsdale hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Bairnsdale's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of 75-84 year-olds (9.5%) but fewer 55-64 year-olds (11.9%). Between 2021 Census and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 10.4% to 11.6%, while the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 12.5%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is expected to grow by 72% (1,418 people), reaching 3,400 from 1,981. Meanwhile, the 75-84 group will grow modestly by 5%, adding only 74 residents.