Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Bairnsdale's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 16,731, showing an increase of 1,047 people since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census recorded a population of 15,684 in Bairnsdale. This growth is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,792 as of June 2024 and an additional 654 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 107 persons per square kilometer. Bairnsdale's growth rate of 6.7% since the 2021 census exceeds that of its SA3 area at 6.5%, indicating it as a region growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 54.0% to overall population gains in recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Bairnsdale is projected to have a population increase of 6,192 persons, reflecting a total increase of 31.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Bairnsdale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Bairnsdale averaged approximately 127 new dwelling approvals annually. Between Financial Year 2021 (FY-21) and FY-25639 homes were approved, with an additional 54 approved in FY-26 to date. The average population increase per dwelling constructed over these five years was 0.4 people.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties was $273,000. In FY-26, $30.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows comparable construction activity per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. Recent construction comprised 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 117 people per approval, Bairnsdale reflects a low density area. Future projections estimate Bairnsdale will add 5,251 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though heightened competition may be experienced by buyers as the population grows.

Bairnsdale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 11 projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Bairnsdale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bairnsdale's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented, with an unemployment rate of 5.7% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.3%.

There are 7,089 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% above Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is lower than standard, at 57.4%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Census responses indicate that only 10.4% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Manufacturing shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, at 4.3% compared to the regional average of 7.5%. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.6, indicating a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 5.3%, while labour force increased by 3.7%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.4 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of Vic. saw a decline in employment and labour force, with a marginal rise in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national growth rates of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Bairnsdale SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $47,025 and an average of $55,367. This was below the national average. The Rest of Vic.'s median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $50,905 (median) and $59,935 (average). Census 2021 data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Bairnsdale fell between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis indicates that 28.1% of the community earned between $1,500 - 2,999 (4,701 individuals), similar to regional levels where 30.3% occupy this range. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remained, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Bairnsdale, as per the latest Census evaluation, 86.8% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 13.1% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Bairnsdale was 42.2%, with mortgaged properties at 30.0% and rented ones at 27.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure for Bairnsdale was $280, similar to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 compared to Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households making up 2.9% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Bairnsdale shows that there are 47 active transport stops currently operating. These include a mix of train services. The area is serviced by 12 individual routes which together provide a total of 266 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located approximately 334 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most commuting patterns show residents travelling outward. The car remains the dominant mode of transport at 93%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 10.4% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Bairnsdale, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is very low, at approximately 47% of the total population (around 7,930 people), compared to 50.5% across the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.7% and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.6% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across the rest of Victoria. The working-age population faces significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 24.8% of Bairnsdale's residents are aged 65 and over (approximately 4,154 people). Health outcomes among seniors present additional challenges, with national rankings higher than those of the general population.

Bairnsdale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale's cultural diversity was below average, with 89.0% citizens, 87.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, accounting for 46.2%. The most notable overrepresentation was in the 'Other' category, comprising 0.7%, compared to 0.8% regionally.

In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (32.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notably, Dutch were slightly overrepresented at 1.6% (vs regional 1.7%), Australian Aboriginal at 3.5% (vs 1.4%), and Italian at 3.1% (vs 2.9%).

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 44 years, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of 25-34 year-olds at 12.5%, but fewer 55-64 year-olds at 11.9%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 10.1% to 11.4%, while the 15-24 cohort rose from 10.4% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 65-74 group decreased from 13.5% to 12.3%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is expected to grow by 63%, adding 1,313 people and reaching 3,400 from the current 2,086. The 75-84 group will see more modest growth of 7%, with an increase of 108 residents.