Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bairnsdale's population is around 16,731 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,047 people (6.7%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,684 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,792 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 654 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 107 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Bairnsdale's 6.7% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area (6.5%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national regional areas is forecast, with the area expected to expand by 6,192 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 31.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Bairnsdale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Bairnsdale has averaged around 127 new dwelling approvals each year, with 639 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 63 so far in FY-26. With an average of only 0.4 people per year moving to the area for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $273,000. Additionally, $30.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

When measured against the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows comparable construction activity (per person), supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low-density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. At around 117 people per approval, Bairnsdale reflects a low-density area.

Future projections show Bairnsdale adding 5,251 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition as the population grows.

Bairnsdale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 11 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, and Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Bairnsdale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bairnsdale has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 5.5%, and 7.3% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,152 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.8% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is somewhat below standard (57.8% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%). Based on Census responses, a low 10.4% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area shows particularly strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishing has a limited presence with 4.3% employment compared to 7.5% regionally. The ratio of 0.6 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 7.3% alongside the labour force increasing by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6%, a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Bairnsdale. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

As per AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Bairnsdale SA2's median income among taxpayers is $47,025, with an average of $55,367. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional Vic.'s median of $50,954 and average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $50,905 (median) and $59,935 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Bairnsdale all fall between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 28.1% of the community (4,701 individuals), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 30.3% similarly occupy this range. After housing, 85.9% of income remains, though this ranks at only the 15th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure within Bairnsdale, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 86.8% houses and 13.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Bairnsdale was in line with that of Regional Vic., at 42.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.0%) or rented (27.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was below the Regional Vic. average at $1,300, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $280, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 64.8% of all households, comprising 22.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households comprising 2.9% of the total. The median household size of 2.3 people is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (16.3%) substantially below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 47 active transport stops operating within Bairnsdale, comprising a mix of train services. These stops are serviced by 12 individual routes, collectively providing 266 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 334 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling. A relatively low 10.4% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Bairnsdale, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~7,930 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic. The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.7 and 9.9% of residents, respectively, while 61.6% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.8% of residents aged 65 and over (4,154 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Bairnsdale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 89.0% of its population being citizens, 87.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Bairnsdale is Christianity, which makes up 46.2% of people. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.7% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Bairnsdale are English, comprising 32.4% of the population, Australian, comprising 31.1% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 8.2% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Dutch is notably overrepresented at 1.6% of Bairnsdale (vs 1.7% regionally), Australian Aboriginal at 3.5% (vs 1.4%) and Italian at 3.1% (vs 2.9%).

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the 38-year national average. Relative to Regional Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher concentration of 25 - 34 residents (12.5%) but fewer 55 - 64 year-olds (11.9%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.1% to 11.4% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.4% to 11.6%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 13.5% to 12.3%. By 2041, Bairnsdale is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 63% (1,313 people), reaching 3,400 from 2,086. The 75 to 84 group displays more modest growth at 7%, adding only 108 residents.