Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Bairnsdale's population is approximately 15,922 as of May 2026. This figure represents a 1.5% increase from the 2021 Census count of 15,684 people. The growth is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data showing 15,918 in June 2025 and an additional 652 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 102 persons per square kilometer. Bairnsdale's growth rate of 1.5% since the census is close to the SA3 area average of 2.3%, indicating strong growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed around 53.5% of overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Bairnsdale's population is projected to increase by 5,877 persons, reflecting a total increase of 36.9% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Bairnsdale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Bairnsdale averaged approximately 127 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25639 homes were approved, with a further 96 approved in FY-26 as of the current date. The average population increase per dwelling built over these five financial years was 0.4 people.

This indicates that new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new properties is $273,000. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $30.9 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale exhibits similar construction activity per capita, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With approximately 117 people per approval, Bairnsdale reflects a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Bairnsdale is projected to add 5,872 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bairnsdale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely affecting the area. Notable ones include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Bairnsdale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bairnsdale has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar employment. Essential services sectors are well represented, with an unemployment rate of 5.5% as of December 2025. Employment growth in the past year was estimated at 7.3%.

There are 7,152 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 5.5%, which is 1.8% above Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is somewhat below standard, at 57.5% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, only 10.4% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area shows strong specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence, at 4.3% compared to 7.5% regionally. There are 0.6 workers for each resident, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 7.3%, while labour force increased by 5.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 1.8 percentage points. By comparison, Regional Vic. recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Bairnsdale SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $47,025 and an average of $55,367. These figures are below the national average. Regional Victoria's median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728 during the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $51,549 (median) and $60,693 (average). Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Bairnsdale fall between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 28.1% of individuals in Bairnsdale earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, reflecting a pattern seen at regional levels where 30.3% similarly occupy this earnings band. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The latest Census evaluated dwelling structures in Bairnsdale as 86.8% houses and 13.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was at 42.2%, similar to Regional Vic., with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (30.0%) or rented (27.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bairnsdale was $1,300, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure in Bairnsdale was $280, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285 and the national average of $375. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 16.3%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bairnsdale has 47 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 12 routes, providing a total of 266 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is good, with residents located an average of 334 meters from the nearest stop. Most commuters travel outward due to Bairnsdale's residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode at 93%, with an average vehicle ownership of 1.4 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 10.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 5 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bairnsdale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover in Bairnsdale is very low at approximately 47% of the total population (~7,547 people), compared to 50.5% across Regional Vic., and the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.7% and 9.9% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Vic. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Bairnsdale has 25.7% of residents aged 65 and over (4,087 people), higher than the 23.9% in Regional Vic. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings even higher than the general population.

Bairnsdale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per the census conducted on 28 August 2016, exhibited below average cultural diversity. A majority of its population, 89.0%, consisted of Australian citizens, with 87.8% born in Australia and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 46.2% of Bairnsdale's population.

The category 'Other' was slightly overrepresented compared to Regional Vic., with 0.7% versus 0.8%. In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notably, Dutch (1.6%) and Italian (3.1%) ethnicities were relatively overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Australian Aboriginal was significantly so at 3.5% versus 1.4%.

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age of 44 years is similar to Regional Vic.'s 43 and well above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (9.6%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (12.0%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the population aged 35 to 44 increased from 10.1% to 11.3%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 65 to 74 decreased from 13.5% to 12.7%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is expected to shift notably. The group aged 25 to 34 is projected to grow by 70%, increasing from 1,885 people in 2021 to 3,211 people by 2041.