Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Bairnsdale's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 16,437. This figure represents a growth of 753 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 15,684. The increase is estimated based on ABS data from June 2024 showing an ERP of 16,051 and validated new addresses totalling 649 since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 106 persons per square kilometer. Bairnsdale's population growth rate of 4.8% since the 2021 census surpassed the SA3 area average of 4.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 54.0% to overall population gains recently.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate a significant population increase in the top quartile of national regional areas, with Bairnsdale expected to expand by 6,192 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 33.7% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Bairnsdale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Bairnsdale averaged approximately 127 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25639 homes were approved, with a further 48 approved in FY-26 to date. This averages out to about 0.4 people moving to the area per year for each dwelling built over these years.

The new supply has kept pace with or exceeded demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction value of new properties is around $273,000. This financial year has seen $30.9 million in commercial development approvals, indicating strong commercial development momentum.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale shows comparable construction activity per person, supporting market stability in line with regional patterns. Recent construction comprises 95.0% detached houses and 5.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. At around 117 people per approval, Bairnsdale reflects a low density area. Future projections estimate Bairnsdale to add approximately 5,545 residents by 2041. However, at current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Bairnsdale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 40thth percentile nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that could affect this region. Notable ones include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis reveals Bairnsdale recording weaker employment conditions than most comparable areas nationwide

Bairnsdale's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 5.7% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.3%. There are 7,089 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 1.9% above Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation at 52.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing is particularly strong, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 4.3%, compared to 7.5% regionally. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.6, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above average. In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 5.3% while labour force grew by 3.7%, reducing the unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. By contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with a state unemployment rate of 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Bairnsdale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Bairnsdale SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $45,514 and an average of $54,083. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median was $48,741 with an average of $60,693. As of September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $51,049 (median) and $60,659 (average), based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022. Census 2021 income data indicates household, family and personal incomes in Bairnsdale are between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals that 28.1% of individuals (4,618 people) earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 range, similar to regional levels where this band captures 30.3%. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Bairnsdale, as evaluated at the Census 2016, comprised 86.8% houses and 13.1% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro Vic.'s dwelling structure was 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was at 42.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (30.0%) or rented (27.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Bairnsdale was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Vic.'s average. Median weekly rent was $280 compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863 as at June 2021, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 in the same period.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 64.8% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is larger than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates that as of 2021 there are 47 active transport stops operating within Bairnsdale. These include a mix of train and bus services. The stops are serviced by 23 individual routes, collectively providing 363 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 334 metres from the nearest transport stop. Service frequency averages 51 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant issues in Bairnsdale with high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover rate is low at approximately 47% (around 7,725 people), compared to the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.7% and 9.9% of residents respectively. About 61.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of Vic's 60.1%. Around 25.4% (4,173 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than Rest of Vic's 30.5%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but generally perform better than the overall population in health metrics.

Bairnsdale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 89.0% of its population being citizens, 87.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Bairnsdale, comprising 46.2% of people. The most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 0.7% of the population compared to 0.6% across Rest of Vic..

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English at 32.4%, Australian at 31.1%, and Scottish at 8.2%. Notably, Dutch is overrepresented at 1.6% (vs regional 1.9%), Australian Aboriginal at 3.5% (vs 2.5%), and Italian at 3.1% (vs 2.5%).

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 44 years, comparable to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and higher than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (9.5%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (11.9%). Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 15-24 has increased from 10.4% to 11.6%, while the 65-74 age group has decreased from 13.5% to 12.5%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is projected to change significantly. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 72%, adding 1,417 people to reach a total of 3,400 from the current 1,982. The 75-84 age group is projected to grow by 5%, with an increase of 74 residents.