Bairnsdale

Population growth drivers in Bairnsdale are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Bairnsdale's population is around 16,727 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,043 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,684 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 15,792 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 649 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 107 persons per square kilometer. Bairnsdale's growth rate of 6.7% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's growth rate of 6.4%, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 54.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is forecasted to increase by 6,192 persons based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an overall increase of 31.4% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Bairnsdale among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Bairnsdale has seen approximately 127 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 639 homes. As of FY-26, 54 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.4 new residents arrive per new home annually between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating supply meeting or exceeding demand. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $273,000.

In FY-26, there have been $30.9 million in commercial approvals. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Bairnsdale shows comparable building activity per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. New development consists predominantly of detached dwellings (95%) and a smaller proportion of attached dwellings (5%), preserving the area's traditional low-density character.

With around 117 people per approval, Bairnsdale reflects an area experiencing growth. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Bairnsdale is projected to add 5,255 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining with projected growth, but increasing population may lead to growing competition among buyers.

Bairnsdale has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 30thth percentile nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may affect this region. Notable projects include Quest Bairnsdale, Dan Murphy's Bairnsdale, Princes Highway and McEacharn Street Intersection Upgrade, Wy Yung Acres Rural Lifestyle Subdivision. The following details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Bairnsdale has been below expectations when compared to most other areas nationally

Bairnsdale has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Its unemployment rate is 5.7%, with an estimated employment growth of 5.3% over the past year. As of September 2025, there are 7,089 residents employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s by 1.9%.

Workforce participation in Bairnsdale is lower at 57.3%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. Only 10.4% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Manufacturing is particularly prominent with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 4.3%.

The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.6, indicating a higher than average level of local employment opportunities. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 5.3% and labour force grew by 3.7%, resulting in a decrease in unemployment rate by 1.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Bairnsdale's employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The Bairnsdale SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $47,025 and an average income of $55,367 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, with Rest of Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income being $62,728. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $50,905 (median) and $59,935 (average), based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Bairnsdale all fall between the 12th and 19th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows that 28.1% of Bairnsdale's population (4,700 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which is consistent with the broader trend across the surrounding region at 30.3%. After housing costs, 85.9% of income remains, ranking at the 15th percentile nationally.

Bairnsdale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Bairnsdale, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.8% houses and 13.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Bairnsdale was at 42.2%, with the rest being mortgaged (30.0%) or rented (27.9%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent figure was $280, close to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Bairnsdale's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Bairnsdale features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 64.8% of all households, including 22.8% couples with children, 29.1% couples without children, and 12.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 32.3% and group households comprising 2.9%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Bairnsdale fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.3%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.7%) and graduate diplomas (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.7% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.3%) and certificates (28.4%). Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 9.9% in primary, 7.7% in secondary, and 2.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.9% in primary education, 7.7% in secondary education, and 2.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Bairnsdale has 47 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train services. These are covered by 12 routes, facilitating 266 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated good, with residents located an average of 334 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound due to the area's residential nature. Cars remain the primary transport mode, used by 93% of residents. Vehicle ownership averages 1.4 per dwelling.

According to the 2021 Census, only 10.4% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, service frequency averages 38 trips per day, equating to roughly 5 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Bairnsdale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Bairnsdale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age groups. Only 47% (~7,928 people) have private health cover, compared to 50.5% in the rest of Victoria and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (9.9%), with 61.6% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% in the rest of Victoria. Working-age residents have notably high chronic condition rates. Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of seniors (25.4%, or 4,246 people) than the rest of Victoria (23.5%). Health outcomes among seniors present additional challenges, ranking even worse than the general population nationally.

Bairnsdale is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Bairnsdale, as per data collected in June 2016, showed cultural diversity below the average with 89.0% citizens, 87.8% born in Australia, and 94.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Bairnsdale, accounting for 46.2%. The category 'Other' was slightly overrepresented compared to the rest of Victoria (0.7% vs 0.8%).

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (32.4%), Australian (31.1%), and Scottish (8.2%). Notably, Dutch (1.6%) and Italian (3.1%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages, while Australian Aboriginal was significantly higher at 3.5% versus 1.4%.

Bairnsdale hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Bairnsdale's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher percentage of 75-84 year-olds at 9.5% but fewer 55-64 year-olds at 11.9%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 10.4% to 11.6%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 13.5% to 12.5%. By 2041, Bairnsdale's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 69%, adding 1,382 people to reach 3,400 from the current 2,017. The 75 to 84 group is expected to grow by 3%, adding 46 residents.