Paynesville (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Paynesville are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Paynesville's (Vic.) estimated population, as of Nov 2025, is around 3,721 people, reflecting a 2.3% increase since the 2021 Census figure of 3,636 people. This change is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of 138 new addresses and their estimation of resident population at 3,632 based on ABS ERP data released Jun 2024. The suburb's population density stands at 650 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Paynesville has grown at a compound annual rate of 1.8%, outpacing its SA3 area, primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with base year 2022 and VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 adjusted to SA2 levels for areas not covered by ABS data. Future trends predict exceptional growth, placing Paynesville among the top 10 percent of non-capital city locations, with an expected increase of 1,980 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 54.1% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of locations outside of capital cities, is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 1,980 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting with an increase of 54.1% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Paynesville when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Paynesville had around 42 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 211 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. This averages to approximately 1.1 new residents per year arriving for each new home over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics. The average development value of new dwellings is $393,000, aligning with regional trends.

In FY-26, there have been $323,000 in commercial approvals, suggesting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Paynesville has moderately higher new home approvals, 39.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, offering reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, development activity has moderated recently. This is significantly higher than national averages, indicating strong developer confidence in the location.

All new construction has been detached houses, preserving Paynesville's low-density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of around 138 people per dwelling approval. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Paynesville is projected to add approximately 2,014 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Paynesville has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence regional performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects potentially impacting the area. Key initiatives include Paynesville Park Estate, Palm Lake Resort Paynesville, Paynesville Slip Road Maritime Precinct Upgrade, and Encore Living Paynesville. The following details those likely most relevant.

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Paynesville shows employment indicators that trail behind approximately 70% of regions assessed across Australia

Paynesville has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 4.2%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of June 2025, there are 1,289 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.4% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Paynesville is significantly lower at 38.2%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. The leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 1.1% compared to the regional average of 7.5%.

The area appears to have limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.6%, with employment decreasing by 1.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Paynesville's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Paynesville's median income among taxpayers was $40,571, with an average of $51,383. This is below the national average. Rest of Vic.'s median income was $48,741 and average was $60,693 during this period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Paynesville would be approximately $45,504 (median) and $57,631 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census indicates household, family and personal incomes in Paynesville all fall between the 3rd and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 32.9% of residents (1,224 people) earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, differing from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. Lower income households are prevalent with 40.1% earning below $800 weekly. While housing costs are modest with 87.5% of income retained, total disposable income ranks at the 6th percentile nationally.

Paynesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Paynesville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.7% houses and 14.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Paynesville stood at 58.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 20.0% and rented dwellings at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,225, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent in Paynesville was $310, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268. Nationally, Paynesville's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,225 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Paynesville features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.6% of all households, consisting of 13.4% couples with children, 42.2% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.4%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households accounting for 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Paynesville faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (28.5%). School and university attendance accounts for 17.1%, comprising primary education (7.0%), secondary education (4.2%), and tertiary education (1.4%).

Paynesville Primary School serves the area with an enrollment of 96 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 952). It focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited at 2.6 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.1, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Paynesville has two active public transport stops operating currently. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with four individual routes in total providing 87 weekly passenger trips combined. The accessibility of these transports is limited, with residents typically located 811 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes is 12 trips per day, which equates to approximately 43 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Paynesville is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Paynesville faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~1,757 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (14.1%) and mental health issues (9.6%). Conversely, 50.8% report no medical ailments, compared to 60.1% in the rest of Victoria. Paynesville has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 44.2% (1,644 people), compared to 30.5% in the rest of Victoria.

Paynesville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Paynesville was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 82.6% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Paynesville is Christianity, comprising 49.3% of the population, compared to 44.9% across Rest of Vic.. Regarding ancestry, the top three represented groups are English (37.2%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (10.8%).

Notably, Dutch representation is higher than average at 1.8%, while French is at 0.6% and Irish is at 9.2%.

Paynesville ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Paynesville's median age of 61 years is significantly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 43 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of Vic. average, Paynesville has a notably over-represented 65 - 74 cohort at 22.7%, while the 35 - 44 year-olds are under-represented at 6.9%. This concentration in the 65 - 74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, Paynesville's population aged 15 to 24 has grown from 5.7% to 6.7%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 24.6% to 22.7%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Paynesville's age structure, with the 65 to 74 age cohort projected to expand by 309 people (37%) from 844 to 1,154.