Paynesville (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Paynesville are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Paynesville's population is estimated at around 3671 people. This reflects an increase of 35 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3636 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 3557 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 138 new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 641 persons per square kilometer. Over the past decade, Paynesville has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 83% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Paynesville in the top 10 percent of locations outside capital cities. The area is expected to grow by 1955 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 55.5% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Paynesville when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Paynesville shows around 40 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 201 homes. As of FY-26, 14 approvals have been recorded. On average, 1.1 new residents arrive per year for each new home built between FY-21 and FY-25, suggesting a balanced supply and demand dynamic. The average value of new dwellings is $393,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments.

In FY-26, there have been $13,000 in commercial approvals, reflecting minimal commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of Victoria, Paynesville has moderately higher new home approvals, with 32.0% more per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand, and is well above average nationally, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. All new construction consists of detached houses, preserving Paynesville's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers, with around 102 people per dwelling approval.

By 2041, Paynesville is forecasted to gain 2,039 residents. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Paynesville has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified seven impactful projects: Paynesville Park Estate, Palm Lake Resort Paynesville, Paynesville Slip Road Maritime Precinct Upgrade, and Encore Living Paynesville. The following details the most relevant ones.

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Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Paynesville remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Paynesville has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% as of September 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.5%. The area's unemployment rate is 0.3% higher than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%, and workforce participation lags significantly, at 38.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries among residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance shows strong specialization, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 1.1% versus the regional average of 7.5%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.5%, while labour force increased by 4.2%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of Vic. recorded employment decline of 0.7% and labour force decline of 0.6%. State-level data to 25-Nov shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 14.0% over ten years for Paynesville, based on industry-specific projections applied to its employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

The median income among taxpayers in Paynesville, based on AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, is $40,571. The average income for the suburb during this period was $51,383. This is below the national average. In comparison, Rest of Vic.'s median income was $50,954 with an average of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Paynesville would be approximately $43,918 (median) and $55,622 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Paynesville all fall between the 3rd and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 32.9% of residents (1,207 people) are in the $400 - 799 income bracket, which is different from the region where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. Lower income households are prevalent, with 40.1% earning below $800 weekly. While housing costs are modest, with 87.5% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 6th percentile nationally.

Paynesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Paynesville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.7% houses and 14.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Paynesville stood at 58.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 20.0% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,225, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. Median weekly rent in Paynesville was $310, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268. Nationally, Paynesville's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,225 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Paynesville features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 63.6% of all households, including 13.4% couples with children, 42.2% couples without children, and 7.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 36.4%, with lone person households at 33.9% and group households making up 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Paynesville faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (3.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (28.5%). School and university attendance totals 17.1%, comprising 7.0% in primary education, 4.2% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

School and university attendance encompasses 17.1% of the community. This includes 7.0% in primary education, 4.2% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Paynesville has two operational public transport stops, both serving buses. These stops are served by two distinct routes, offering a combined total of 67 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is considered limited, with residents generally located 811 meters away from the nearest stop.

On average, there are nine trips per day across all routes, which translates to roughly thirty-three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Paynesville is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Paynesville faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 47% (~1,734 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%.

Arthritis and mental health issues are most prevalent, impacting 14.1 and 9.6% of residents respectively. Conversely, 50.8% claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 60.1% in Rest of Vic.. Paynesville has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 44.1% (1,618 people), compared to the state average of 30.5%.

Paynesville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Paynesville, surveyed in June 2016, had a low cultural diversity with 82.6% of residents born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 49.3%. This is higher than the 44.9% average across Victoria.

The top three ancestry groups were English (37.2%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (10.8%). Some ethnicities had notable differences: Dutch residents were 1.8%, higher than the regional average of 1.9%; French residents were 0.6%, compared to a regional 0.4%; Irish residents were 9.2%, slightly above the regional average of 8.3%.

Paynesville ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Paynesville's median age of 61 years is significantly older than the Rest of Vic.'s 43 and higher than the national average of 38 years. Comparing with the Rest of Vic., Paynesville has a notably over-represented cohort of 65 - 74 year-olds (22.6%) while those aged 35 - 44 are under-represented (6.9%). This concentration in the 65 - 74 age group is well above the national average of 9.4%. According to the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 6.0% to 6.9%, while the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 24.6% to 22.6%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Paynesville's age structure, with the 65 to 74 age group projected to expand by 316 people (38%), growing from 829 to 1,146.