Paynesville (Vic.)

Population growth drivers in Paynesville are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Paynesville (Vic.) is around 3,680. This figure reflects an increase of 44 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,636 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,557 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 144 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 643 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 83.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends predict exceptional growth, placing the suburb in the top 10 percent of locations outside capital cities, with an expected increase of 1,892 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 48.1% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Paynesville when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Paynesville had approximately 39 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling around 197 homes. In FY26 so far, 15 approvals have been recorded. This results in an average of about 1.2 new residents per year arriving for each new home built between FY21 and FY25. The average dwelling value is approximately $393,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

Commercial approvals this financial year amount to around $13,000, indicating minimal commercial development activity. Paynesville shows moderately higher new home approvals compared to the rest of Victoria, with 30.0% more per person over the five-year period. All recent development has been detached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character and appealing to those seeking space.

With around 105 people per dwelling approval, Paynesville is considered a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Paynesville is expected to grow by approximately 1,769 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Paynesville has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include Paynesville Park Estate, Palm Lake Resort Paynesville, Paynesville Slip Road Maritime Precinct Upgrade, and Encore Living Paynesville. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Paynesville remain below the national average according to AreaSearch analysis

Paynesville's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate is 4.0%, reflecting a 5.7% employment growth over the past year, according to AreaSearch data aggregation. As of December 2025, 1,329 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.3% higher than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%.

Workforce participation in Paynesville is significantly lower at 43.3%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. A moderate 15.9% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training. Health care & social assistance stands out with employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 1.1%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the working population versus resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, employment increased by 5.7% and labour force by 5.3%, leading to a 0.4 percentage point unemployment decrease. In comparison, Regional Vic. saw employment decline by 0.6%, labour force by 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Paynesville's employment mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.7% over five years and 14.0% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Paynesville is below the national average. The median income is $40,571 and the average income stands at $51,383. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $43,918 (median) and $55,622 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family, and personal incomes in Paynesville all fall between the 3rd and 7th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $400 - 799 dominates with 32.9% of residents (1,210 people), differing from metropolitan regions where $1,500 - 2,999 dominates with 30.3%. Lower income households are prevalent, with 40.1% earning below $800 weekly. While housing costs are modest with 87.5% of income retained, the total disposable income ranks at just the 6th percentile nationally.

Paynesville is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Paynesville's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 85.7% houses and 14.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Paynesville stood at 58.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 20.0% and rented ones at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,225, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Paynesville was $310, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Paynesville's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Paynesville features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 63.6 percent of all households, including 13.4 percent couples with children, 42.2 percent couples without children, and 7.3 percent single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 36.4 percent, with lone person households at 33.9 percent and group households comprising 2.5 percent of the total. The median household size is 2.0 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Paynesville faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 17.2%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 3.0% and graduate diplomas also at 3.0%. Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (28.5%). School and university attendance comprises 17.1% of the community, with 7.0% in primary education, 4.2% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

School and university attendance encompasses 17.1% of the community. This includes 7.0% in primary education, 4.2% in secondary education, and 1.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Paynesville has two active public transport stops. These are served by two separate routes, offering a total of 67 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is limited, with residents usually located 811 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents here commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 96% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 15.9% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency across all routes averages nine trips per day, equating to roughly 33 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Paynesville are marginally below the national average with common health conditions slightly more prevalent than average across both younger and older age cohorts

Paynesville shows below-average health outcomes according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are higher than average across both younger and older age groups. Only about 47% of Paynesville residents have private health cover, compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

and the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent conditions are arthritis (14.1%) and mental health issues (9.6%). About half (50.8%) report no medical ailments, lower than Regional Vic.'s 63.4%. Working-age residents face significant health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Paynesville has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 42.7% (1,571 people), compared to Regional Vic.'s 23.9%. National rankings align with the general population.

Paynesville is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Paynesville, surveyed in June 2016, had a low cultural diversity with 82.6% of its residents born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 49.3%, slightly higher than the regional average of 47.3%. The top three ancestral groups were English (37.2%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (10.8%).

Notably, Dutch ancestry was higher in Paynesville at 1.8% compared to the regional average of 1.7%, French at 0.6% versus 0.3%, and Irish at 9.2% compared to 9.7%.

Paynesville ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Paynesville's median age was 61 years as of the 2021 Census, which is notably older than Regional Vic.'s median age of 43 and significantly higher than the national average of 38 years. The 65 - 74 age cohort was particularly over-represented in Paynesville at 21.9%, compared to Regional Vic.'s average, while the 35 - 44 age group was under-represented at 7.4%. This concentration of the 65 - 74 cohort is well above the national average of 9.5%. Between the 2016 and 2021 Censuses, Paynesville's median age decreased by 1.2 years from 62 to 61, indicating a shift towards a younger demographic. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group grew from 6.0% to 7.6% of the population, and the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 5.7% to 7.2%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 age group declined from 24.6% to 21.9%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Paynesville's age structure, with the 25 to 34 age cohort projected to grow significantly by 267 people (96%), from 279 to 547.