Orbost

An assessment of population growth drivers in Orbost reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, Orbost's population is estimated at around 2,167, reflecting a decrease of 97 people since the 2021 Census. This decrease represents a 4.3% change from the previous population count of 2,264 people. The current estimate is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population figure of 2,163, which was determined following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 10.4 persons per square kilometer. Interstate migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusting using weighted aggregation methods to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas, with Orbost expected to increase by 506 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 23.2% over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Orbost, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates Orbost has seen approximately 15 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 79 homes. As of FY26, 2 approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction value for new properties is $437,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

This financial year, Orbost has seen $4.6 million in commercial development approvals, indicating limited commercial development activity. Compared to Rest of Vic., Orbost shows 15.0% lower construction activity per person and ranks among the 61st percentile nationally when assessed areas are considered. New building activity comprises 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% attached dwellings, maintaining the area's traditional low density character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 244 people per dwelling approval, Orbost exhibits characteristics of a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Orbost is projected to add 502 residents by 2041. Construction pace is maintaining a reasonable level with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Orbost has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 45thth percentile nationally

No changes can influence a region's performance more than alterations to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could potentially impact this area. Notable projects include Seadragon Offshore Wind Farm, Additional VLocity Trains, Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, with the following list detailing those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Orbost lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Orbost has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well-represented. The unemployment rate was 7.2% as of December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 4.6% over the past year. There are 794 residents currently employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Regional Vic.'s rate by 3.5 percentage points, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation lags significantly at 46.0%, compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. Only 12.1% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among Orbost's residents include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. The area has a particular specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence, with only 2.1% of employment compared to the regional average of 4.7%. Over the past year, Orbost saw employment increase by 4.6%, while labour force grew by 3.4%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional Vic. experienced a fall in employment by 0.6% and labour force contraction by 0.7%, with a minimal reduction in unemployment. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia suggest that Orbost's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Orbost had a median income among taxpayers of $38,195. The average income stood at $45,924. This is lower than the national average and compares to levels of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic., respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Orbost would be approximately $41,869 (median) and $50,342 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Orbost all fall between the 0th and 2nd percentiles nationally. The majority of residents, 38.7% or 838 people, earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 category predominates at 30.3%. The concentration of 51.6% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicates economic challenges faced by a significant portion of Orbost's community. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 88.9% income retention, total disposable income ranks at just the 3rd percentile nationally.

Orbost is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Orbost's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.6% houses and 6.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Orbost stood at 55.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.3% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Orbost was recorded at $190, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Orbost's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents substantially below the national figure of $375.

Orbost features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.5% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.5%, consisting of 40.8% lone person households and 2.5% group households. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

Orbost faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.5%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.9%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (30.2%). Educational participation is high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.4% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Orbost has one active public transport stop operating within its boundaries. This stop is served by three routes that collectively offer 57 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility in Orbost is rated as limited, with residents typically located 864 meters from the nearest transport stop. In this primarily residential area, most residents commute outward using their cars, which remain the dominant mode of transportation at 89%. Nine percent of residents walk to work or other destinations. The average vehicle ownership per dwelling in Orbost is 1.2, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a relatively low 12.1% of Orbost residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages eight trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 57 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Orbost is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Orbost faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age groups. Only approximately 45% of Orbost's total population (~977 people) has private health cover, compared to 50.5% in Regional Victoria and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.9%) and mental health issues (8.7%). Conversely, 56.6% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.4% across Regional Victoria. Working-age individuals in Orbost also face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (35%, or 758 people), compared to Regional Victoria's 23.9%. Health outcomes among Orbost's senior population present further challenges, ranking even higher than the general population nationally.

Orbost is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Orbost, as per the data, showed lower than average cultural diversity. Its population composition was 87.4% citizens, 89.9% born in Australia, and 96.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity dominated Orbost's religious landscape, with 42.1%.

Notably, Judaism had no representation (0.0%), while Regionally Vic had 0.1%. The top three ancestry groups were English (33.1%), Australian (31.9%), and Scottish (8.2%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Australian Aboriginal was higher at 4.9% in Orbost compared to the regional average of 1.4%, Dutch was slightly lower at 1.5% versus 1.7%, and Italian remained the same at 2.9%.

Orbost ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Orbost's median age is 53, significantly higher than Regional Vic.'s figure of 43 and substantially exceeding the national norm of 38. Compared to Regional Vic., Orbost has a higher percentage of residents aged 65-74 (17.9%), but fewer residents aged 25-34 (8.2%). This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, Orbost's population has seen an increase in the 65 to 74 age group from 16.3% to 17.9%, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 8.0% to 9.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 16.6% to 14.8%, and the 45 to 54 group dropped from 11.3% to 9.7%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Orbost's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 50%, reaching 267 from 177. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort is expected to remain stable with no growth (0 people).