Orbost

An assessment of population growth drivers in Orbost reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, Orbost's population is estimated at around 2,262 people, reflecting a decrease of 2 individuals since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,264. This inference is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, indicating a resident population of 2,255. The current population density is approximately 10.8 persons per square kilometer. Interstate migration contributed around 62.0% to Orbost's recent population gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, Vic State Government Regional/LGA projections from 2023 are used with adjustments made employing weighted aggregation methods. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in Orbost's top quartile non-metropolitan area population, with an expected rise to 2,795 persons by 2041, reflecting a 23.4% increase over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Orbost according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Orbost saw around 19 new homes approved per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 98 dwellings. As of FY-26, two approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.5 new residents were associated with each dwelling constructed annually between FY-21 and FY-25. The average construction cost for new properties was $437,000.

In FY-26, Orbost has seen $12.2 million in commercial development approvals. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Orbost's new home approvals per capita are comparable, maintaining market balance with the broader area. Recent construction comprises 87.0% detached houses and 13.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting the area's low-density character focused on family homes.

The population density is approximately 322 people per dwelling approval. AreaSearch projects Orbost to add 530 residents by 2041. Current development appears well-matched to future needs, supporting steady market conditions without extreme price pressure.

Orbost has emerging levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 27thth percentile nationally

No factor affects a region's performance more than alterations to its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has pinpointed 0 projects that could potentially impact this area. Key projects include Seadragon Offshore Wind Farm, Additional VLocity Trains, Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones. The following list outlines those most likely to be relevant.

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Employment conditions in Orbost face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Orbost's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 8.0% as of an unspecified date, based on AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of June 2025, Orbost had 805 residents employed while its unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, exceeding Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Orbost was lower at 40.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. Orbost specializes strongly in agriculture, forestry & fishing, employing 1.7 times the regional average.

Conversely, professional & technical services employed only 2.1% of local workers, below Rest of Vic.'s 4.7%. The area may offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between Jun-25 and Jul-26, Orbost's labour force decreased by 1.2%, with employment declining by 2.7%, leading to a 1.3 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. In contrast, Rest of Vic. experienced milder declines in employment (0.9%) and labour force (0.4%), with a smaller increase in unemployment rate (0.4 percentage points). Jobs and Skills Australia's Sep-22 national employment forecasts project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies significantly by industry sector. Applying these projections to Orbost's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, although these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only and do not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Orbost had a median taxpayer income of $38,195 and an average of $45,924 in financial year 2022, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This was lower than the national average, contrasting with Rest of Vic.'s median income of $48,741 and average income of $60,693. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.16% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $42,840 (median) and $51,508 (average) as of September 2025. The 2021 Census data showed household, family, and personal incomes in Orbost fell between the 0th and 2nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution indicated that 38.7% of residents (875 people) earned between $400 - $799, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket led at 30.3%. Economic circumstances reflected widespread financial pressure, with 51.6% of households operating within modest weekly budgets below $800. Although housing costs were modest, with 88.9% of income retained, the total disposable income ranked at just the 3rd percentile nationally.

Orbost is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Orbost's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.6% houses and 6.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Home ownership in Orbost stood at 55.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.3% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $867, below Non-Metro Vic.'s average. The median weekly rent figure was $190, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268. Nationally, Orbost's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Orbost features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 56.5% of all households, including 17.5% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.5%, with lone person households at 40.8% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Orbost faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.5%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.9%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (30.2%). Educational participation is high at 27.9%, comprising primary education (11.4%), secondary education (8.1%), and tertiary education (1.7%).

Orbost's five schools have a combined enrollment of 391 students, with varied educational conditions indicated by an ICSEA score of 940. The educational mix includes three primary, one secondary, and one K-12 school. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs, with 17.3 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.1, suggesting the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Orbost has one active public transport hub, serving a mix of bus routes. This hub is served by eight distinct routes, offering 87 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility in Orbost is limited, with residents typically located 864 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, services run 12 times daily across all routes, resulting in approximately 87 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Orbost is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Orbost faces significant health challenges with various conditions affecting both younger and older age groups. Approximately 45% (~1,020 people) have private health cover, which is lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 12.9% of residents) and mental health issues (8.7%). About 56.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 60.1% in Rest of Vic.. Orbost has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 33.3% (753 people), compared to the Rest of Vic.'s 30.5%. Despite this, health outcomes among seniors are challenging but perform better than the general population's health metrics.

Orbost is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Orbost's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 87.4% of its population being citizens born in Australia who speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Orbost, comprising 42.1% of the population. Notably, Judaism is not represented in Orbost, unlike the rest of Victoria where it makes up 0.1%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (33.1%), Australian (31.9%), and Scottish (8.2%). However, there are notable differences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 4.9% compared to the regional average of 2.5%, Dutch at 1.5% versus 1.9%, and Italian at 2.9% compared to 2.5%.

Orbost ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Orbost's median age is 53, significantly higher than Victoria's figure of 43 and Australia's norm of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Orbost has a higher proportion of residents aged 65-74 (17.3%), but fewer residents aged 15-24 (8.2%). This 65-74 concentration is notably above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 8.0% to 9.3% of Orbost's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 16.6% to 15.3%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Orbost's age structure. The 25 to 34 group is expected to grow by 59%, reaching 305 people from 192. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort remains unchanged at 0% growth (0 people).