Orbost

An assessment of population growth drivers in Orbost reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025 Orbost's estimated population is around 2,208. This reflects a decrease since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 2,264 people. The current estimate of 2,208 is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of ERP data released by ABS in June 2024. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 10.6 persons per square kilometer. Population growth for the Orbost statistical area (Lv2) was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023, adjusted employing weighted aggregation from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population trends forecast a significant increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas, with Orbost expected to increase by 535 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 26.5% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Orbost according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Orbost has seen approximately 16 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years, totalling around 83 homes. As of FY-26, two approvals have been recorded. Historically, each dwelling constructed has added about 0.6 new residents per year to Orbost's population. The average construction value for these dwellings is $437,000, indicating a focus on premium developments.

In this financial year, $4.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded. Compared to the Rest of Vic., Orbost has 12.0% lower construction activity per person but ranks at the 67th percentile nationally for new building activity. Detached houses make up 89.0% of new builds, with attached dwellings comprising the remaining 11.0%, maintaining Orbost's low-density character.

With around 205 people per dwelling approval, Orbost is indeed a low-density area. AreaSearch projects Orbost to add approximately 586 residents by 2041.

Orbost has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 47thth percentile nationally

No changes can significantly influence a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch that may impact this area. Notable projects include Seadragon Offshore Wind Farm, Additional VLocity Trains, Telstra InfraCo Intercity Fibre Network, and Victorian Renewable Energy Zones, with the following list providing details on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market performance in Orbost lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Orbost has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate was 7.6% in the past year, showing an employment growth of 4.1%.

As of September 2025835 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is higher than Rest of Vic.'s at 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags significantly at 40.2% compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, agriculture, forestry & fishing, and retail trade. Orbost has a particular specialization in agriculture, forestry & fishing, with an employment share 1.7 times the regional level.

However, professional & technical services have limited presence at 2.1% compared to the regional average of 4.7%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. In the 12-month period ending in November 2025, employment increased by 4.1%, while labour force increased by 3.5%, causing a fall in unemployment rate of 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of Vic., where employment fell by 0.7% and unemployment rose marginally. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, adding 41,950 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.7%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Orbost's employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.2% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to Orbost's employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Orbost had a median income among taxpayers of $38,195. The average income stood at $45,924 in this period. This is lower than national averages which were $50,954 and $62,728 for Rest of Vic respectively during the same year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year ended June 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $41,346. Similarly, average income estimate by September 2025 is around $49,713. Census 2021 data shows household, family and personal incomes in Orbost all fall between the 0th and 2nd percentiles nationally. In Orbost, 38.7% of residents (854 people) earn within the $400 - $799 weekly bracket, differing from metropolitan regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 category is predominant at 30.3%. The concentration of 51.6% in sub-$800 weekly brackets indicates economic challenges faced by a significant portion of Orbost's community. Despite modest housing costs allowing for retention of 88.9% of income, total disposable income ranks at just the 3rd percentile nationally.

Orbost is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Orbost's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.6% houses and 6.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.9% houses and 9.2% other dwellings. Orbost's home ownership rate was higher at 55.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.3% and rented ones at 22.5%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $867, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,300. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $190, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $268. Nationally, Orbost's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Orbost features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 56.5% of all households, consisting of 17.5% couples with children, 27.6% couples without children, and 10.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 43.5%, with lone person households at 40.8% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.2.

Orbost faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.5%, followed by graduate diplomas (1.9%) and postgraduate qualifications (1.7%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (30.2%). Educational participation is high, with 27.9% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.4% in primary, 8.1% in secondary, and 1.7% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.4% in primary education, 8.1% in secondary education, and 1.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The public transport analysis indicates one active transport stop operating within Orbost, offering a mix of bus services. This stop is served by three individual routes, collectively facilitating 57 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these transport services is rated as limited, with residents typically residing 864 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages eight trips per day, resulting in approximately fifty-seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Orbost is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Orbost faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 45% (around 996 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.9%) and mental health issues (8.7%). Around 56.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Rest of Vic's 60.1%. Orbost has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 33.2% (733 people), compared to Rest of Vic's 30.5%. Health outcomes among seniors show some challenges but perform better than the general population in health metrics.

Orbost is considerably less culturally diverse than average when assessed alongside AreaSearch's national rankings for language and cultural background related metrics

Orbost, as per the findings, exhibited below-average cultural diversity. Its population was predominantly local, with 87.4% being citizens and 89.9% born in Australia. English was spoken exclusively at home by 96.6%.

Christianity was the prevalent religion, comprising 42.1% of Orbost's population. Notably, Judaism was not represented (0.0%) compared to the Rest of Vic's 0.1%. In terms of ancestry, the top groups were English (33.1%), Australian (31.9%), and Scottish (8.2%). Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Australian Aboriginal was overrepresented at 4.9% in Orbost versus the regional average of 2.5%, Dutch at 1.5% compared to 1.9%, and Italian at 2.9% against a regional 2.5%.

Orbost ranks among the oldest 10% of areas nationwide

Orbost's median age is 53, considerably higher than the Rest of Vic. figure of 43 and substantially exceeding the national norm of 38. Compared to Rest of Vic., Orbost has a higher concentration of 65-74 residents at 17.2%, but fewer 15-24 year-olds at 8.2%. This 65-74 concentration is well above the national figure of 9.4%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 8.0% to 9.3% of Orbost's population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 16.6% to 15.3%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Orbost's age structure. The 25 to 34 group is projected to grow by 63%, adding 117 people and reaching a total of 305 from the current figure of 187. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort grows by a modest 3%, adding 9 people.