Maffra (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Maffra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the estimated population of Maffra (Vic.) as of May 2026 is around 5,511. This reflects a growth of 127 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,384. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5,490 in June 2025 and 88 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 69 persons per square kilometer. Maffra's growth rate of 2.4% since census is within 1.9 percentage points of Rest of Vic.'s 4.3%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 53.0% to overall population gains, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023 with adjustments made via weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to demographic trends, a significant population increase in the top quartile of regional areas nationally is forecasted, with Maffra expected to increase by 1,745 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall increase of 31.3% over the 16 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Maffra recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Maffra had around 23 new homes approved annually on average over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 116 homes. So far in FY-26, 24 approvals have been recorded. This results in approximately 1.9 new residents arriving per year per new home, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes is $434,000, suggesting a focus on the premium market with high-end developments.

In FY-26, Maffra has seen $7.6 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting its primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Maffra shows around 75% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 58th percentile nationally. New building activity consists of approximately 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers with an average of around 263 people per dwelling approval.

Population forecasts indicate Maffra will gain 1,724 residents by 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Maffra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified eight projects likely impacting the region. Notable ones are Maffra Aged Care Facility, Maffra Retarding Basins and Wetlands, Maffra Heavy Vehicle Bypass Route, and Maffra Northern Growth Precinct. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Maffra shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Maffra has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 3.0%.

Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 4.7%. In Maffra, 2,498 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.7% lower than Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%. The workforce participation rate in Maffra is 57.7%, slightly below Regional Vic.'s 61.0%. According to Census responses, a low 10.2% of residents work from home.

The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, mining has a high concentration with employment levels at 4.4 times the regional average. Conversely, manufacturing is under-represented, with only 5.7% of Maffra's workforce compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.7%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the ratio of Census working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 4.7% while labour force increased by 4.0%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In comparison, Regional Vic. experienced an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%, with unemployment falling by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Maffra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Maffra had a median taxpayer income of $46,565 and an average income of $56,663 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. These figures are below the national averages of $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average) for Regional Victoria. Based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 9.62% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be approximately $51,045 (median) and $62,114 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Maffra all fell between the 19th and 22nd percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - $2,999 captured 30.1% of Maffra's community (1,658 individuals), which is consistent with regional levels showing 30.3% in the same category. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.1% income retention, total disposable income ranked at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Maffra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Maffra's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.2% houses and 6.8% other dwellings. This contrasts with Regional Vic.'s figures of 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Maffra stood at 41.0%, similar to Regional Vic., with mortgaged dwellings at 36.8% and rented ones at 22.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Maffra was recorded as $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Maffra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Maffra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.4% of all households, including 24.7% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households comprising 2.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Maffra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates of 16.1%, significantly lower than the Victorian average of 33.4%. This indicates both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.0%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Maffra has 16 active public transport stops served by two routes offering 40 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good transport accessibility, with an average distance of 373 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, predominantly using cars (94%). On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. As of the 2021 Census, 10.2% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages five trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Service frequency averages 5 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Maffra is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Maffra experiences significant health issues, as determined by AreaSearch's evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,716 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 9.8 and 8.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 63.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, close to the Regional Vic average of 63.4%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 24.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,372 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Maffra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Maffra's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 91.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Maffra is Christianity, comprising 48.6% of the population, compared to 47.3% across Regional Vic. The top three ancestry groups in Maffra are Australian (34.0%), English (33.0%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Dutch ancestry is overrepresented at 2.3% in Maffra compared to the regional average of 1.7%, Scottish ancestry is slightly higher at 8.6% versus 8.8%, and Polish ancestry remains at 0.5%.

Maffra's median age exceeds the national pattern

Maffra's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional Vic.'s average of 43 and considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 years are particularly prominent at 12.8%, while the 45-54 group is comparatively smaller at 9.5% than in Regional Vic. Between 2021 and present, the 75 to 84 age group has grown from 7.5% to 9.0% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.3% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 11.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Maffra. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 60%, adding 378 residents to reach 1,012. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 cohort grows by a modest 8% (49 people).