Maffra (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Maffra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Maffra (Vic.) is estimated at around 5,985 people. This reflects an increase of 601 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,384 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 5,562 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 75 persons per square kilometer. Maffra's growth rate of 11.2% since the 2021 census exceeded that of its SA3 area (8.1%) and the Rest of Vic., marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb of Maffra (Vic.) is expected to increase by 1,909 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 24.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Maffra when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Maffra had around 23 new home approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 116 homes. As of FY-26, 19 approvals have been recorded. On average, each dwelling constructed between FY-21 and FY-25 attracted about 3.4 new residents per year. This indicates demand significantly outpaces supply, potentially putting upward pressure on prices and increasing buyer competition.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $434,000, suggesting developers focus on the premium market with high-end developments. In FY-26, $7.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to Rest of Vic., Maffra shows about 75% of construction activity per person and ranks among the 58th percentile nationally.

New building activity comprises approximately 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density with a preference for detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 266 people per dwelling approval, Maffra exhibits a developing market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Maffra is projected to gain 1,486 residents by 2041. If current development rates persist, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Maffra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified eight projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include the Maffra Aged Care Facility, Maffra Retarding Basins and Wetlands, Maffra Heavy Vehicle Bypass Route, and Maffra Northern Growth Precinct. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Maffra shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Maffra's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.1% as of December 2025, below Regional Vic.'s 3.7%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 5.6%.

As of December 2025, 2,600 residents were employed, with a workforce participation rate similar to Regional Vic.'s 61.5%. Only 10.2% of residents worked from home based on Census responses. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Mining has notable concentration, with employment levels at 4.4 times the regional average.

Manufacturing is under-represented, at 5.7% compared to Regional Vic.'s 7.7%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population vs resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 5.6%, labour force by 5.1%, reducing unemployment by 0.5 percentage points. Regional Vic., however, recorded an employment decline of 0.6% and a labour force decline of 0.7%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Maffra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Maffra had a median taxpayer income of $46,565 and an average of $56,663 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. This is below the national average, with Regional Vic.'s median income being $50,954 and average income being $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.25% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Maffra would be approximately $50,407 (median) and $61,338 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Maffra all fall between the 19th and 22nd percentiles nationally. The income bracket indicating earnings of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 30.1% of the community (1,801 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across regional levels showing 30.3% in the same category. Housing costs are modest, with 87.1% of income retained, but the total disposable income ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Maffra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Maffra, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.2% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Maffra was at 41.0%, similar to Regional Vic., with the rest being mortgaged (36.8%) or rented (22.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of $1,430. The median weekly rent in Maffra was $250, compared to Regional Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Maffra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Maffra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 67.4% of all households, including 24.7% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 32.6%, consisting of 30.7% lone person households and 2.0% group households. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional Vic average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Maffra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 32.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Maffra has 16 active public transport stops serviced by two routes offering a total of 40 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good accessibility to these stops, with an average distance of 373 meters to the nearest one. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. The car is the dominant mode of transportation at 94%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 10.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages five trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Maffra is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Maffra faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,950 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis (affecting 9.8% of residents) and mental health issues (8.8%), while 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the Regional Vic average of 63.4%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 24.2% of Maffra's residents are aged 65 and over (1,448 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

The latest Census data sees Maffra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Maffra, as per the census data from 29th June 2021, showed a lower level of cultural diversity with 91.0% of its population being Australian citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Maffra, accounting for 48.6% of the population, slightly higher than the regional average of 47.3%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.0%), English (33.0%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Dutch ancestry was overrepresented at 2.3%, compared to the regional average of 1.7%, while Scottish ancestry stood at 8.6% (similar to the regional 8.8%) and Polish ancestry was present at 0.5%.

Maffra's median age exceeds the national pattern

Maffra's median age is 41 years, lower than Regional Vic.'s average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.1%, compared to Regional Vic., while the 45-54 cohort makes up 9.5%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 75-84 age group grew from 7.5% to 8.9%, and the 15-24 cohort increased from 10.3% to 11.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 13.7% to 11.5%, and the 65-74 group dropped from 13.3% to 12.2%. Demographic modeling suggests Maffra's age profile will significantly change by 2041, with the 25-34 cohort projected to grow by 51%, adding 365 residents to reach 1,078. In contrast, the 55-64 cohort is expected to grow minimally by just 2% (15 people).