Maffra (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Maffra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Feb 2026, Maffra's population is estimated at around 5985. This reflects an increase of 601 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5384. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 5562 following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 78 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 75 persons per square kilometer. Maffra's 11.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 8.1% growth, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 53.0% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and utilising VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 for areas not covered by this data, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, the suburb of Maffra (Vic.) is expected to grow by 1935 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 26.5% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Maffra when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Maffra shows around 24 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 121 homes were approved, with an additional 18 so far in FY-26. Each dwelling built attracted an average of 3.2 people per year over the past five financial years.

This indicates substantial demand outstripping supply, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. New properties are constructed at an average value of $434,000, targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $7.6 million, reflecting the area's residential character.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Maffra records about three-quarters the building activity per person and ranks among the 62nd percentile nationally for areas assessed. New building activity comprises 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 237 people per dwelling approval, Maffra exhibits a developing market. Population forecasts indicate Maffra will gain 1,584 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Maffra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

AreaSearch has identified eight projects that could impact the local area. These include the Maffra Aged Care Facility, Maffra Retarding Basins and Wetlands, Maffra Heavy Vehicle Bypass Route, and Maffra Northern Growth Precinct. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Maffra shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Maffra has a balanced workforce with equal representation of white collar and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.0% based on AreaSearch data aggregation. As of September 2025, there were 2,571 residents employed with an unemployment rate of 0.6% lower than Rest of Vic.'s rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of Vic.'s 61.4%. According to Census responses, only 10.2% of residents work from home.

The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Mining has notable concentration with employment levels at 4.4 times the regional average. Manufacturing is under-represented at 5.7%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.7%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally as indicated by working population vs resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 4.0% while labour force increased by 3.8%, reducing unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. Rest of Vic.'s recorded employment decline was 0.7%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Maffra. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Maffra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Maffra had a median taxpayer income of $46,565 and an average income of $56,663 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national averages for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 (median) and $62,728 (average). By September 2025, these figures are estimated to have increased to approximately $50,407 (median) and $61,338 (average), based on an 8.25% growth in wages since financial year 2023. The 2021 Census data shows that incomes in Maffra fall between the 19th and 22nd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In Maffra, 30.1% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, which is consistent with regional trends where 30.3% fall into the same category. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.1% income retention, total disposable income in Maffra ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Maffra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Maffra's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.2% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Home ownership in Maffra was at 41.0%, similar to Non-Metro Vic., with the rest either mortgaged (36.8%) or rented (22.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, lower than Non-Metro Vic.'s average of $1,430. Median weekly rent in Maffra was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $285. Nationally, Maffra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower at $1,300 vs Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Maffra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 24.7% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households comprising 2.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of Vic. average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Maffra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.0%). Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.3% in primary, 8.0% in secondary, and 2.3% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Maffra has 16 active public transport stops serviced by two routes offering 40 weekly passenger trips. Residents have good accessibility to these stops, typically residing 373 meters from the nearest one. Most residents commute outward daily, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, only 10.2% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages five trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately two weekly trips per individual stop.

Service frequency averages 5 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Maffra is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Maffra faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,950 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis (affecting 9.8% of residents) and mental health issues (8.8%). However, 63.2% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the Rest of Vic's rate of 63.4%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.9% of residents aged 65 and over (1,430 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The latest Census data sees Maffra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Maffra's population shows low cultural diversity, with 91.0% being citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 48.6% of Maffra residents, compared to 47.3% across Rest of Vic. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (34.0%), English (33.0%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Dutch ancestry is higher in Maffra at 2.3%, compared to the regional average of 1.7%. Scottish ancestry is also slightly higher at 8.6% versus 8.8%. Polish ancestry remains similar at 0.5% regionally and locally.

Maffra's median age exceeds the national pattern

Maffra's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of Vic average of 43 but higher than the national average of 38. The 5-14 age group comprises 13.1%, compared to Rest of Vic., while the 45-54 cohort makes up 9.4%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 15-24 age group grew from 10.3% to 11.4%, and the 75-84 cohort increased from 7.5% to 8.6%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort declined from 13.7% to 11.4%. Demographic modeling suggests Maffra's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 52%, adding 370 residents to reach 1,083. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort shows minimal growth of just 4% (28 people).