Maffra (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Maffra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Maffra's population is estimated at around 5,966 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 582 people (10.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,384 people in the Maffra (Vic.) statistical area (Lv2). The change is inferred from the resident population of 5,562 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on Jun 2024 and an additional 72 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 75 persons per square kilometer in the Maffra (Vic.) SA2, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. The area's 10.8% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area's 7.9%, along with the non-metro area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections released in 2023 with adjustments made employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, a significant population increase in the top quartile of locations outside of capital cities is forecast, with the area expected to grow by 1,932 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 26.8% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Maffra when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Maffra shows around 24 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 121 homes were approved, with a further 18 approved so far in FY-26. This translates to an average of 3.2 people moving to the area per dwelling built over these years.

Supply is lagging demand, indicating heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. Developers are targeting the premium market segment, with new properties constructed at an average value of $434,000. In FY-26, $7.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to Rest of Vic., Maffra records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 62nd percentile nationally for areas assessed. New building activity comprises 96.0% standalone homes and 4.0% townhouses or apartments, preserving the area's low density nature. With around 237 people per dwelling approval, Maffra shows a developing market. Population forecasts indicate Maffra will gain 1,598 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Maffra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 8 projects that may affect this region. Notable ones are Maffra Aged Care Facility, Maffra Retarding Basins and Wetlands, Maffra Heavy Vehicle Bypass Route, and Maffra Northern Growth Precinct. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment environment in Maffra shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Maffra's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.2% in the past year, lower than the Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Employment grew by 4.3% over this period. As of September 2025, 2,601 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.6% below the regional average. Workforce participation is slightly lower at 55.1%, compared to Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training.

Mining stands out with employment levels at 4.4 times the regional average. Manufacturing, however, is less represented with only 5.7% of Maffra's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.7%. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 4.3%, while labour force grew by 4.1%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw employment decline by 0.7% over this period. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows VIC employment grew by 1.13% year-on-year, with an unemployment rate of 4.7%, slightly higher than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's May-25 projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Maffra's employment mix, local employment is expected to increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

The suburb of Maffra had a median taxpayer income of $46,565 and an average income of $56,663 in the financial year 2023, according to postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This is lower than the national averages for Rest of Vic., which were $50,954 median and $62,728 average. By September 2025, estimates based on an 8.25% Wage Price Index growth would place Maffra's median income at approximately $50,407 and the average at around $61,338. The 2021 Census data shows that incomes in Maffra fall between the 19th and 22nd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 30.1% of Maffra's community, which is consistent with regional trends where 30.3% fall into the same category. Despite modest housing costs, allowing residents to retain 87.1% of their income, total disposable income ranks at just the 23rd percentile nationally.

Maffra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Maffra, as per the latest Census evaluation, 93.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 6.8% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is similar to Non-Metro Vic., where 91.9% of dwellings are houses. Home ownership in Maffra stood at 41.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.8% and rented ones at 22.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Vic.'s average. The median weekly rent was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $260. Nationally, Maffra's median monthly mortgage repayment of $1,300 is lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rent of $250 is substantially below the national figure of $375.

Maffra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 24.7% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households making up 2.0%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Maffra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 16.1%, significantly lower than Victoria's average of 33.4%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.5%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.1% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.1% and certificates at 32.0%. Educational participation is high, with 27.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.3% in primary education, 8.0% in secondary education, and 2.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Maffra indicates there are 16 active transport stops currently operating. These stops offer a mix of bus services. There are two individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 40 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport is rated as good, with residents typically located 373 meters from the nearest transport stop. The service frequency averages 5 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 2 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Maffra is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Maffra faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent in both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~2,941 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis (9.8%) and mental health issues (8.8%), while 63.2% report being completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the Rest of Vic's figure of 62.7%. Maffra has 24.1% residents aged 65 and over (1,437 people), with health outcomes among seniors showing some challenges but performing better than the general population in health metrics.

The latest Census data sees Maffra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Maffra's cultural diversity was below average, with 91.0% of its population being citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Maffra, comprising 48.6% of people, compared to 46.9% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.0%), English (33.0%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Dutch representation was higher at 2.3% in Maffra than regionally at 2.1%, Scottish was equally represented at 8.6%, and Polish was slightly lower at 0.5% compared to the regional average of 0.6%.

Maffra's median age exceeds the national pattern

Maffra's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 are particularly prominent at 13.1%, while the 45-54 group is comparatively smaller at 9.6% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.5% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 11.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Maffra. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 56%, adding 388 residents to reach 1,087. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort grows by a modest 0%, with an increase of just 2 people.