Maffra (Vic.)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Maffra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, the estimated population of the suburb of Maffra (Vic.) is around 5,664 people. This figure reflects a growth of 280 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 5,384 people. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of resident population at 5,596 following examination of the latest ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 72 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 71 persons per square kilometer. Maffra's growth rate of 5.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the SA3 area average of 5.0%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 53.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with other drivers such as overseas migration and natural growth also being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the VIC State Government's Regional/LGA projections from 2023, adjusted employing a method of weighted aggregation of population growth from LGA to SA2 levels. Growth rates by age group are applied across all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 1,932 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total gain of 33.5% over the 17-year period.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Maffra when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Maffra shows approximately 24 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 123 homes were approved, with an additional 15 approved so far in FY-26. This results in about 3.1 new residents per year arriving per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

However, supply is lagging demand, leading to heightened buyer competition and pricing pressures. The average value of new homes being built is $434,000. In FY-26, $1.6 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus.

Compared to the Rest of Vic., Maffra records about three-quarters the building activity per person and places among the 62nd percentile of areas assessed nationally. New building activity consists of approximately 93.0% standalone homes and 7.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's low density nature and attracting space-seeking buyers. With around 237 people per dwelling approval, Maffra exhibits characteristics of a low density area. Population forecasts indicate that Maffra will gain approximately 1,900 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Maffra has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the 49thth percentile nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified a total of 8 projects that are expected to impact the area. Notable projects include Maffra Aged Care Facility, Maffra Retarding Basins and Wetlands, Maffra Heavy Vehicle Bypass Route, and Maffra Northern Growth Precinct. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

While Maffra retains a healthy unemployment rate of 3.4%, recent employment declines have impacted its national performance ranking

Maffra's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate as of June 2025 was 3.4%, lower than Rest of Vic.'s 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Maffra was 55.1%, slightly below Rest of Vic.'s 57.4%. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Notably, mining employment is high at 4.4 times the regional average. Manufacturing, however, is under-represented with only 5.7% of Maffra's workforce compared to Rest of Vic.'s 7.7%.

Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparison of working population and resident population. Between June 2024 and June 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.8%, while employment declined by 1.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of Vic. saw an employment decline of 0.9% and a labour force decline of 0.4%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Maffra's current employment mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.1% over five years and 13.0% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Maffra's median taxpayer income was $46,565 and average income was $56,663 in financial year 2022. This is lower than the national averages of $48,741 (median) and $60,693 (average). Based on Wage Price Index growth, estimated median income for Maffra as of September 2025 would be approximately $52,227, with average income at around $63,553. According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Maffra fall between the 19th and 22nd percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 captures 30.1% of Maffra's population (1,704 individuals), similar to regional levels at 30.3%. Despite modest housing costs allowing for 87.1% income retention, total disposable income ranks at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Maffra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Maffra, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.2% houses and 6.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s 91.9% houses and 8.1% other dwellings. Home ownership in Maffra was at 41.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 36.8% and rented ones at 22.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,300, aligning with Non-Metro Vic.'s average, while the median weekly rent was $250, compared to Non-Metro Vic.'s $260. Nationally, Maffra's mortgage repayments were significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Maffra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 67.4% of all households, including 24.7% couples with children, 30.9% couples without children, and 10.9% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 32.6%, with lone person households at 30.7% and group households making up 2.0% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, aligning with the average for the Rest of Vic.

Educational outcomes in Maffra fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 16.1%, significantly below the Victorian average of 33.4%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 11.0%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.6%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.5%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.0%).

Educational participation is high at 27.2%, including primary education (11.3%), secondary education (8.0%), and tertiary education (2.3%). Maffra's three schools have a combined enrollment of 935 students, serving distinct age groups with balanced educational opportunities. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 985).

Transport servicing is very low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Maffra indicates operation of 16 active stops offering a mix of bus services. These stops are served by four unique routes, collectively facilitating 60 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is assessed as good, with residents typically residing 372 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages eight trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately three weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Maffra is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Maffra faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Approximately 49% (~2,792 people) have private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.3%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (9.8%) and mental health problems (8.8%). However, 63.2% report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of Vic.'s 62.7%. Maffra has 24.1% (1,365 people) aged 65 and over, with seniors showing better health outcomes compared to the general population.

The latest Census data sees Maffra placing among the least culturally diverse areas in the country when compared across a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Maffra had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 91.0% citizens, 91.4% born in Australia, and 96.9% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 48.6% of Maffra's population, compared to 46.9% across Rest of Vic.. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (34.0%), English (33.0%), and Irish (9.3%).

Notably, Dutch ethnicity was slightly overrepresented at 2.3%, Scottish remained the same at 8.6%, while Polish was underrepresented at 0.5%.

Maffra hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Maffra's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of Vic.'s average of 43 and older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 5-14 are prominent at 13.1%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 9.6% compared to Rest of Vic.. Between 2021 and present, the 75-84 age group has grown from 7.5% to 8.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 13.7% to 11.9%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Maffra. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 64%, adding 424 residents to reach 1,087. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort grows by a modest 5% (36 people).