Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Nov 2025, the population of the Warilla statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 6,355, reflecting an increase of 129 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6,226. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,329 following examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 48 validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,562 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections until 2041, AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia's projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for non-covered areas.

According to these projections, the Warilla (SA2) population is expected to decline by 83 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group which is projected to increase by 140 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Warilla according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Warilla has received around 34 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Approximately 171 homes were approved between financial years FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 20 approved in FY-26. Despite a population decline during this period, the development activity has been adequate relative to population changes.

The average construction cost value for new dwellings is $386,000. In FY-26, around $3.3 million worth of commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warilla shows approximately 61% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 69th percentile nationally in terms of assessed areas. New developments consist of 26.0% standalone homes and 74.0% attached dwellings, marking a shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 71.0% houses. This shift may indicate diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 193 people per dwelling approval, Warilla is characterized as a low density area. Population projections indicating stability or decline suggest reduced housing demand pressures in the future, potentially benefiting potential buyers.

Warilla has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project expected to impact this region. Notable projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), and The Links Hotel. Relevant details are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, including essential services sectors. The unemployment rate in Warilla was 15.7% as of September 2025, compared to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

This means there is room for improvement. Workforce participation also lags significantly at 43.1%, versus Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Warilla shows strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.8% while labour force decreased by 0.1%, causing unemployment to fall by 0.8 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.5%, labour force decline by 0.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localized population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows that income in Warilla is below the national average. The median assessed income is $43,735 and the average income stands at $53,638. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $52,390 and the average income is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Warilla would be approximately $47,610 (median) and $58,390 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Warilla all fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 30.7% of locals (1,950 people) have incomes in the $400 - $799 category, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. The prevalence of lower-income residents (40.6% under $800/week) indicates constrained household budgets across much of Warilla. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.9% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was at 35.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.1% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warilla was $1,733, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Warilla was $300, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 62.3% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 18.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.3% and group households comprising 3.3%. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 10.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas comprise 8.7% and certificates make up 31.7%. Educational participation is high at 28.6%, including 10.3% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 56 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 33 different routes that together facilitate 755 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 127 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 107 trips across all routes, which translates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% (~3,063 people), compared to 53.8% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (11.5%).

Conversely, 56.0% report no medical ailments, lower than the 65.2% in Rest of NSW. Warilla has 25.2% residents aged 65 and over (1,601 people), higher than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors generally align with the broader population's health profile.

Warilla ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.8% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (82.0%), and speaking English only at home (91.3%). Christianity was the predominant religion, making up 55.6% of Warilla's population compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (30.0%), English (28.8%), and Irish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.5%) was overrepresented in Warilla compared to the regional average of 1.0%, as were Welsh (0.8% vs 0.7%) and Macedonian (1.1% vs 1.9%).

Warilla hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warilla's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW at 43, and higher than the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warilla has a higher proportion of residents aged 75-84 (9.7%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (11.0%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the population aged 25-34 increased from 10.3% to 11.4%, while the 45-54 age group decreased from 12.5% to 11.1% and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.9% to 12.7%. By 2041, Warilla's population is projected to experience significant changes in its age composition. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 16%, reaching 841 people from 724. Conversely, the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups are anticipated to decrease in population.