Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

The estimated population of the suburb of Warilla was around 6,359 as of February 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 133 people since the Census in 2021, when the population stood at 6,226. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 6,329 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 50 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 2,564 persons per square kilometer, placing Warilla in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 57% of overall population gains during recent periods for the suburb.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb's population is projected to decrease by 79 persons overall, while the 25 to 34 age group is expected to increase by 146 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Warilla according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Warilla has seen approximately 35 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 175 homes were approved, with an additional 20 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been relatively adequate, which is positive for buyers.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $386,000. This year, $3.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warilla shows around 62% of the construction activity per person and ranks among the 71st percentile nationally. New developments consist of 26.0% standalone homes and 74.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 71.0% houses. This shift suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

With around 181 people per dwelling approval, Warilla shows characteristics of a low density area. Population projections indicating stability or decline should reduce housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

Warilla has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely to impact the area: Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal. Other key projects include The Waterfront Shell Cove, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), and The Links Hotel. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment. Essential services sectors are well represented with an unemployment rate of 15.7% as of December 2025. There was an estimated employment growth of 1.1% over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, 2,270 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 11.8% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags significantly at 50.6% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, a moderate 15.3% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Warilla shows strong specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share of 1.2 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 1.1%, while labour force remained stable at 0.0%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.9 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer further insight into potential future demand within Warilla. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and not accounting for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that median income in Warilla is $43,735, while average income stands at $53,638. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $47,610 (median) and $58,390 (average). According to the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes in Warilla fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 30.7% of locals earn between $400 - $799 per week, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is most prevalent at 29.9%. This indicates that a significant proportion of residents in Warilla have constrained household budgets due to lower incomes. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structure at the latest Census showed 70.9% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was at 35.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.1% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with the Regional NSW average, while median weekly rent was $300, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.3% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 18.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.3% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent among qualifications, at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 40.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (31.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 10.3% in primary, 8.7% in secondary, and 2.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 56 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 33 different routes that together facilitate 755 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these stops is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 127 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential area, most Warilla residents commute outwards, primarily using cars (93%). On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in Warilla, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 15.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 107 trips per day, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (~3,065 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (12.4%) and mental health issues (11.5%). Conversely, 56.0% of residents report no medical ailments, lower than the 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Warilla has 25.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,627 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings.

Warilla ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.8% of its population being Australian citizens, 82.0% born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. The predominant religion in Warilla is Christianity, comprising 55.6% of the population, similar to Regional NSW's 55.9%. Regarding ancestry, the top three groups are Australian (30.0%), English (28.8%), and Irish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.5%) and Welsh (0.8%) populations in Warilla exceed their respective regional averages of 0.3% and 0.5%. Additionally, Macedonian ancestry is higher than the regional average at 1.1%, compared to 0.4%.

Warilla hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warilla's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Warilla has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (9.6%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.9%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the population aged 25-34 grew from 10.3% to 11.9%, while those aged 35-44 increased from 10.1% to 11.3%. Conversely, the age group of 45-54 decreased from 12.5% to 10.8% and those aged 55-64 dropped from 13.9% to 12.7%. By 2041, Warilla's age composition is expected to change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 13%, reaching 852 people from the current 756. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 65-74 cohorts are expected to decrease in population.