Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warilla is around 6,359, reflecting an increase of 133 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 6,226. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of 6,329 residents based on latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024 and additional validation of 50 new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio is 2,564 persons per square kilometer, placing Warilla in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 57% of overall population gains during recent periods. For future projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia's SA2 level projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data.

By 2041, projections indicate an overall population decline of 74 persons but growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group projected to increase by 142 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Warilla according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Warilla experienced around 34 dwelling approvals per year based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Approximately 171 homes were approved between financial years FY21 to FY25, with an additional 20 approved in FY26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to population change.

The average construction value for new dwellings is $386,000. This year, $3.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential growth. Warilla shows approximately 61% of the construction activity per person compared to Rest of NSW and ranks at the 69th percentile nationally for assessed areas. New developments consist of 26.0% standalone homes and 74.0% attached dwellings, a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 71.0% houses). This trend suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs.

Warilla has around 193 people per dwelling approval, indicating low density characteristics. With population projections showing stability or decline, housing demand pressures are expected to remain relatively stable, benefiting potential buyers.

Warilla has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely impacting the area: Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal. Key projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), and The Links Hotel. Most relevant projects are detailed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment. Essential services sectors are well represented with an unemployment rate of 15.7% as of September 2025. The area experienced 0.6% employment growth over the past year based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data.

There were 2,255 residents in work while the unemployment rate was 11.9% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 50.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Moderate homeworking was observed with 15.3% of residents working from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Health care & social assistance showed strong specialization at 1.2 times the regional level while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.5% of local workers compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period, employment increased by 0.6% alongside labour force decreasing by 0.3%, causing unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, and unemployment rise of 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Warilla's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to local employment mix.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Warilla is below the national average. The median income is $43,735 and the average income stands at $53,638. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $52,390 and the average income is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $47,610 (median) and $58,390 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Warilla all fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 30.7% of locals (1,952 people) earn between $400 - $799 per week, contrasting with the broader area where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. This indicates that 40.6% of Warilla residents have constrained household budgets due to earning less than $800 per week. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 78.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warilla, as per the latest Census evaluation, 70.9% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 29.1% being semi-detached, apartments, or 'other' dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Warilla's home ownership rate was 35.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.1% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $300 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.3% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 18.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.3% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 40.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (31.7%). Educational participation is high at 28.6%, including 10.3% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 56 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 33 different routes that together facilitate 755 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility to these transport services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 127 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outwards from Warilla, with cars being the dominant mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 15.3% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages at 107 trips per day, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and prevalence of chronic conditions are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of the total population (around 3,065 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.4% and 11.5% of residents respectively. However, 56.0% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population health is notably impacted by chronic conditions. Warilla has a higher proportion of seniors, with 25.4% aged 65 and over (1,615 people), compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW. While senior health outcomes are broadly aligned with national rankings, some challenges exist.

Warilla ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla had a cultural diversity index below the average, with 86.8% citizens, 82.0% born in Australia, and 91.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 55.6%, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 55.9%. Ancestry-wise, Australian was the largest group at 30.0%, followed by English at 28.8% and Irish at 6.4%.

Notably, Spanish (1.5%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.3%. Similarly, Welsh (0.8%) and Macedonian (1.1%) were also overrepresented in Warilla compared to their respective regional averages of 0.5% and 0.4%.

Warilla hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warilla's median age is 44 years, similar to Rest of NSW's 43 years and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Warilla has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (9.5%) but fewer residents aged 5-14 (10.8%). Between the 2016 Census and the 2021 Census, the population aged 25-34 increased from 10.3% to 11.8%, while the 35-44 age group grew from 10.1% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 45-54 age group declined from 12.5% to 10.7%, and the 55-64 age group decreased from 13.9% to 12.6%. By 2041, Warilla's population is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 12%, reaching 839 people from the current 750. However, the 5-14 and 65-74 age groups are expected to experience population declines.