Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warilla is around 6,334, reflecting an increase of 108 people since the 2021 Census. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of a resident population of 6,328 based on the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 50 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,554 persons per square kilometer, placing Warilla in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch's projections for Warilla are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data.

Projections indicate a decline in overall population by 46 persons by 2041, but growth is anticipated in specific age cohorts, notably the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 129 people over this period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Warilla according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Warilla has seen approximately 35 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years ending FY26, totalling around 175 homes. Up to FY26, 27 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply has likely met demand, offering buyers good choice. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $386,000.

In FY26, $3.3 million in commercial approvals were registered, indicating limited commercial development focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Warilla has around two-thirds the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks among the 71st percentile nationally for assessed areas. New development consists of 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% attached dwellings, reflecting a trend towards denser development which appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a shift from existing housing patterns, currently 71.0% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Warilla has around 183 people per approval, reflecting low density.

With population projections showing stability or decline, the area should see reduced housing demand pressures, benefiting potential buyers.

Warilla has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified a single project that could impact the area: Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), and The Links Hotel are key projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services. The unemployment rate was 15.7% as of December 2025. This is an increase from the previous year's estimated growth of 1.3%.

Warilla's unemployment rate is higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Warilla is lower at 51.1%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. As of December 2025, 2,283 residents are employed. A moderate 15.3% of residents work from home, though this figure may have been influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns.

The leading employment industries among Warilla residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, the area has a high specialization in health care & social assistance, with an employment share 1.2 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.5% of local workers, significantly lower than Regional NSW's 5.3%. This suggests limited employment opportunities in these sectors within Warilla. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment levels increased by 1.3%, while the labour force increased by 0.2%. This resulted in a decrease in the unemployment rate of 1.0 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and an increase in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points during this period. Looking ahead, Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Warilla's employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years. However, these projections are based on a simple weighting extrapolation of the national employment forecast against Warilla's current employment mix and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Warilla's income level is below national average in latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. Median income among taxpayers is $43,735 and average income stands at $53,638, compared to Regional NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 are approximately $48,248 (median) and $59,173 (average). Census 2021 income data shows Warilla's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 3rd and 5th percentiles nationally. Distribution data indicates largest segment comprises 30.7% earning $400-$799 weekly (1,944 residents), contrasting with broader area where $1,500-$2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. With 40.6% earning under $800 per week, suburb faces considerable income constraints affecting local spending patterns. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.2% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.9% houses and 29.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla stood at 35.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 22.1% and rented ones at 42.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $300, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warilla features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 62.3% of all households, including 20.3% couples with children, 22.4% couples without children, and 18.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 37.7%, with lone person households at 34.3% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.3 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 10.5%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 40.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (31.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.3% in primary education, 8.7% in secondary education, and 2.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis indicates 56 active transport stops operating within Warilla, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 33 individual routes, collectively providing 755 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 127 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 15.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 107 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 3,052 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 12.4% and 11.5% of residents respectively. However, 56.0% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Warilla has a higher proportion of seniors, with 25.8% of residents aged 65 and over (1,634 people), compared to 23.4% in Regional NSW. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, largely aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Warilla ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.8% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (82.0%), speaking English only at home (91.3%). Christianity is the predominant religion in Warilla (55.6%), slightly lower than Regional NSW's 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (30.0%), English (28.8%), and Irish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.5%) and Welsh (0.8%) groups are overrepresented in Warilla compared to Regional NSW (0.3% and 0.5%, respectively). Macedonian ancestry is also relatively high at 1.1%.

Warilla hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Warilla's median age is 44 years, similar to Regional NSW's 43 and above the national average of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, Warilla has a higher percentage of residents aged 75-84 (9.8%) but fewer residents aged 35-44 (11.2%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the age group 25 to 34 has grown from 10.3% to 11.7%, while the 35 to 44 cohort has increased from 10.1% to 11.2%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.0%, and the 55 to 64 group has dropped from 13.9% to 12.5%. By 2041, Warilla is expected to see significant shifts in its age composition. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 14%, reaching 845 people from the current 741. Meanwhile, the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.