Koonawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Koonawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Koonawarra is estimated at around 3,914. This reflects a growth of 182 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,732. The current resident population estimate of 3,808, used for this calculation, was derived from AreaSearch's examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,779 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Koonawarra's growth rate of 4.9% since the census is comparable to the Rest of NSW's 5.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Interstate migration contributed approximately 40.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by this data. Future population growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 498 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of 10.0% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Koonawarra, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis shows Koonawarra averaging around 8 new dwelling approvals annually over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 41 homes. As of FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. This averages to approximately 1.4 new residents per year arriving per new home between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating balanced supply and demand with stable market conditions. However, recent figures show this accelerating to 4.8 people per dwelling over the past 2 financial years, suggesting increasing demand and tightening supply. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $350,000.

There have also been $5.0 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating limited commercial development focus compared to residential. When measured against Rest of NSW, Koonawarra has significantly less development activity, 65.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, which is also under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition of 94.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 761 people per dwelling approval, Koonawarra reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Koonawarra will gain 392 residents through to 2041.

Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Koonawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

AreaSearch has identified four infrastructure projects that could impact a particular area. These key projects are: Cleveland Road Upgrade - West Dapto, M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto, WestPoint Dapto, and West Dapto Urban Release Area. The following list provides details on those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Koonawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Koonawarra's workforce is balanced between white and blue collar jobs, with prominent representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 10.7% as of December 2025, which is 6.7% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation was 57.1%, below Regional NSW's 61.3%.

A moderate 13.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for employment are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance is notably concentrated, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.2% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by Census data comparing working population and resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 0.1%, labour force also rose by 0.1%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline by 1.2% and labour force decrease by 0.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Koonawarra's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Koonawarra had a median taxpayer income of $45,414 and an average income of $55,987. Nationally, the averages were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Regional NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $49,438 (median) and $60,947 (average). According to 2021 Census figures, incomes in Koonawarra fall between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.8% of the population earns between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Koonawarra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

As evaluated in the latest Census, dwelling structures within Koonawarra consisted of 93.5% houses and 6.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Koonawarra stood at 26.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 42.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average. Median weekly rent was recorded at $350, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Koonawarra's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Koonawarra has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 26.8% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 22.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Koonawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.1% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificates at 34.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Koonawarra shows that there are currently 36 operational transport stops in the area. These stops serve a variety of bus routes, totalling 14 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate approximately 292 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of public transport is considered excellent, with residents living an average of 127 metres from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential region, most commuters travel outward. Private cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 93% of residents.

On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling in Koonawarra, which is lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 13.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The average service frequency across all routes is 41 trips per day, equating to roughly 8 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Koonawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Koonawarra faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several conditions impact both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (~1,922 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 11.3% and 10.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.3% report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. The area has 16.5% of residents aged 65 and over (645 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Senior health outcomes present some challenges, broadly aligned with national rankings.

Koonawarra ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Koonawarra's cultural diversity was below average, with 88.5% citizens, 83.6% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 47.9%. The 'Other' category was overrepresented at 0.8%, compared to Regional NSW's 0.8%.

Top ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (28.7%), and Scottish (7.2%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal (7.1%) and Macedonian (1.0%) populations were higher than regional averages of 4.6% and 0.4%, respectively. Spanish representation was also notably higher at 0.7%.

Koonawarra's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Koonawarra is 36 years, which is significantly below Regional NSW's average of 43 years. This figure is also somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.7% of Koonawarra's population, a strong representation compared to Regional NSW. Conversely, the 65-74 cohort makes up only 8.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has grown from 13.7% to 15.7%, while the 35-44 cohort has increased from 11.8% to 13.0%. However, the 5-14 age group has declined from 14.4% to 13.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic changes in Koonawarra. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 22%, reaching 752 people from its current figure of 614. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.