Koonawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Koonawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Koonawarra is around 3,672, reflecting a decrease of 60 people since the 2021 Census. This decrease represents a 1.6% change from the previous population of 3,732. The current resident population estimate of 3,655 was inferred by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and address validation since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,669 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for population growth in the area was interstate migration, contributing approximately 40% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to expand by 445 persons to reach an estimated population of 4,117 by 2041, reflecting a gain of 11.7% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Koonawarra, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Koonawarra averaged around 8 new dwelling approvals each year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 41 homes. As of FY-26, 4 approvals have been recorded. Over these 5 years, an average of 0.8 new residents arrived per new home. This indicates supply meeting or surpassing demand, supporting potential population growth while new properties are constructed at an average value of $350,000.

In FY-26, there have been $5.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to the Rest of NSW, where Koonawarra has significantly less development activity (65.0% below regional average per person). This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties, which are also under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 30.0% detached houses and 70.0% attached dwellings, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a shift from the existing housing stock (currently 94.0% houses), indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options. With around 761 people per dwelling approval, Koonawarra reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Koonawarra will gain 428 residents through to 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Koonawarra will gain 428 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Koonawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects are expected to impact the area significantly: Cleveland Road Upgrade in West Dapto, M1 Princes Motorway's south-facing ramps at Dapto, WestPoint Dapto, and West Dapto Urban Release Area.

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Employment conditions in Koonawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Koonawarra has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 10.5% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical data. By December 2025, there were 1,488 residents employed, but this figure was 6.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, indicating room for improvement.

Workforce participation in Koonawarra was somewhat lower at 57.1% compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, a moderate 13.8% of residents worked from home. The leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Notably, health care & social assistance had an employment share that was 1.2 times higher than the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.2% compared to Regional NSW's average of 5.3%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparing working population and resident population. In a 12-month period ending in May-25, labour force decreased by 1.0%, while employment declined by 0.9%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. By comparison, Regional NSW saw an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment is expected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Koonawarra's employment mix indicates a potential local employment increase of 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Koonawarra had a median taxpayer income of $45,414 and an average income of $55,987. Nationally, the averages were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Regional NSW. With a 10.32% increase based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for March 2026 would be approximately $50,101 (median) and $61,765 (average). According to the 2021 Census, Koonawarra's household, family, and personal incomes fell between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally. Income distribution showed 31.8% of Koonawarra's population earning between $1,500 and $2,999, similar to Regional NSW at 29.9%. Housing affordability was severe, with only 78.4% of income remaining, ranking at the 13th percentile.

Koonawarra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Koonawarra's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.5% houses and 6.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Koonawarra was 26.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 42.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $350, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Koonawarra's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Koonawarra has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.6% of all households, including 26.8% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 22.5% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households making up 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Koonawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.1%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (34.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Koonawarra has 36 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are covered by 14 different routes that collectively facilitate 292 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is deemed excellent, with residents' average proximity to the nearest stop being 127 meters. As a predominantly residential area, most commutes are outward-bound, and cars remain the primary mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 13.8% of residents work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Each route has an average service frequency of 41 trips per day, resulting in approximately 8 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Koonawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Koonawarra faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of the total population (around 1,803 people), compared to Regional NSW's 51.9% and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 11.3% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 59.3% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Koonawarra has 16.7% of its population aged 65 and over (613 people), lower than Regional NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally in line with national rankings.

Koonawarra ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Koonawarra's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.5% of its population being citizens, 83.6% born in Australia, and 93.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Koonawarra, comprising 47.9% of people. The most notable overrepresentation was in Other, which makes up 0.8% of the population compared to Regional NSW's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups are English at 31.6%, Australian at 28.7%, and Scottish at 7.2%. There are notable divergences in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Australian Aboriginal is overrepresented at 7.1% compared to Regional NSW's 4.6%, Macedonian at 1.0% versus 0.4%, and Spanish at 0.7% versus 0.3%.

Koonawarra's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Koonawarra is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years, and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.3% of the population, higher than Regional NSW's percentage, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 8.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has grown from 13.7% to 15.3%, and the 75-84 cohort has increased from 5.5% to 6.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.1% to 11.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Koonawarra. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 24%, reaching 698 people from 561. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.