Koonawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Koonawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Koonawarra's population is estimated at around 3,794. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,732 people, a change inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 3,793 residents based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and address validation since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1,724 persons per square kilometer. Primary drivers of growth include interstate migration contributing about 40% of overall gains. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

By 2041, the suburb is projected to grow by 504 persons, reflecting a gain of 13.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Koonawarra, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Koonawarra has averaged approximately 9 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 48 homes. From FY-21 to FY-25, an average of 1.1 new residents per year arrived with each new home, indicating a balanced supply and demand market that supports stable conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $350,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Koonawarra has significantly less development activity, with 60.0% fewer approvals per person, typically strengthening demand and prices for existing properties. This scarcity also falls under the national average, suggesting the area's established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 33.0% detached houses and 67.0% attached dwellings, creating more affordable entry points and suiting downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 94.0% houses. With around 544 people per dwelling approval, Koonawarra shows a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to gain 528 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Koonawarra will gain 528 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Koonawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Four projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area: Cleveland Road Upgrade - West Dapto, M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto, WestPoint Dapto, and West Dapto Urban Release Area.

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Employment conditions in Koonawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Koonawarra's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 9.6% as of June 2024, according to AreaSearch data aggregation from statistical areas.

As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 5.9%, which is higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Koonawarra lags at 50.8% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Health care & social assistance has a notable concentration with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.2% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 0.4% and labour force grew by 0.5%, with unemployment remaining essentially unchanged. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a rise in unemployment of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest that national employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Koonawarra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022 shows Koonawarra had a median income among taxpayers of $45,414 and an average level of $55,987. This is lower than the national average, which was $49,459 (median) and $62,998 (average) for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Koonawarra would be approximately $51,141 (median) and $63,047 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Koonawarra all fall between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 31.8% of the population (1,206 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Koonawarra, with only 78.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Koonawarra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Koonawarra's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.5% houses and 6.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Koonawarra stood at 26.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 42.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Koonawarra was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Koonawarra's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Koonawarra has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 74.6% of all households, including 26.8% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 22.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.4%, with lone person households at 22.8% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Koonawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 9.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (34.1%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 8.3% in secondary education, and 2.7% pursuing tertiary education. Koonawarra Public School, established on 29th January 2008, serves the local educational needs within Koonawarra, with an enrollment of 194 students as of 2021. The school caters exclusively to primary education, with secondary options available in nearby areas. As of 2021, there are limited local school capacity (5.1 places per 100 residents vs 12.9 regionally), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Koonawarra has 36 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 14 distinct routes, offering a total of 279 weekly passenger trips. The transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents on average located 127 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 39 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Koonawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Koonawarra faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Approximately 49% (~1,863 people) have private health cover, lower than Rest of NSW's 51.4%, and the national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent conditions, impacting 11.3% and 10.5% respectively.

However, 59.3% report having no medical ailments, compared to Rest of NSW's 63.9%. As of 2021, 16.3% (618 people) are aged 65 and over, lower than the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Seniors' health outcomes present similar challenges as those faced by the general population.

Koonawarra ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Koonawarra, surveyed in June 2016, showed low cultural diversity: 88.5% were Australian citizens; 83.6% were born there; 93.5% spoke English only at home. Christianity was predominant, at 47.9%. The 'Other' religion category was overrepresented, at 0.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 0.4%.

In ancestry, English (31.6%) and Australian (28.7%) were most common, higher than regional averages of 26.1% and 25.9% respectively. Scottish ancestry was also notable at 7.2%. Some ethnic groups showed significant differences: Australian Aboriginal at 7.1% (regional average 3.2%), Macedonian at 1.0% (3.8%), Spanish at 0.7% (0.9%).

Koonawarra's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Koonawarra is 36 years, significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group shows strong representation at 15.2%, compared to Rest of NSW. However, the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 8.7%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.7% to 15.2% of Koonawarra's population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has declined from 14.4% to 13.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Koonawarra. The 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 31%, reaching 754 people from the current 576. Conversely, the 55-64 and 65-74 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.