Koonawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Koonawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Koonawarra is around 3,914. This figure reflects a growth of 182 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,732. The current resident population estimate of 3,808, as of June 2024, indicates this increase. Koonawarra's population density is 1,779 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Since the Census, Koonawarra has seen a growth rate of 4.9%, close to the Rest of NSW's 5.9%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 40% to this population gain.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections suggest an above median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with Koonawarra expected to increase by 484 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 9.9% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Koonawarra, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Koonawarra has averaged around 7 new dwelling approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 39 homes. So far in FY-26, 1 approval has been recorded. Over these five years, there have been approximately 1.4 new residents per year per dwelling constructed on average. However, recent data shows this ratio has intensified to 5.7 people per dwelling over the past two financial years, indicating growing popularity and potential undersupply. Development projects in Koonawarra average $350,000 in construction value.

In FY-26, there have also been $5.0 million in commercial approvals, suggesting limited commercial development focus compared to residential. Relative to the Rest of NSW, Koonawarra records markedly lower building activity, 67.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. New development consists of 30.0% standalone homes and 70.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 94.0% houses). With around 846 people per dwelling approval, Koonawarra reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate Koonawarra will gain 387 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Koonawarra will gain 387 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Koonawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects, identified by AreaSearch, are expected to impact the area significantly: Cleveland Road Upgrade in West Dapto, South-Facing Ramps at Dapto on M1 Princes Motorway, WestPoint Dapto, and West Dapto Urban Release Area.

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Employment conditions in Koonawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Koonawarra has a balanced workforce consisting of both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate in the area was 10.6% as of September 2025. Over the past year, there has been relative employment stability.

As of September 2025, 1,552 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 6.8%, which is higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. The workforce participation rate in Koonawarra is somewhat below standard at 57.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, a moderate 13.8% of residents work from home. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Koonawarra demonstrates a notable concentration in health care & social assistance, with employment levels at 1.2 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Koonawarra's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.2% while employment declined by 0.4%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points in Koonawarra. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, the labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points during the same period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 provide insight into potential future demand within Koonawarra. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, suggest that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Koonawarra's employment mix indicates that local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Koonawarra's median income among taxpayers was $45,414 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $55,987 during the same period. These figures are lower than Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. As of September 2025, current estimates suggest Koonawarra's median income will be approximately $49,438 and the average income around $60,947, based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to Census 2021 data, incomes in Koonawarra fall between the 10th and 17th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. In this suburb, 31.8% of the population earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Koonawarra, with only 78.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Koonawarra is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Koonawarra, as per the latest Census, 93.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 6.5% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Koonawarra stood at 26.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.0% and rented ones at 42.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Koonawarra's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Koonawarra has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.6% of all households, including 26.8% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 22.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.4%, consisting of 22.8% lone person households and 2.8% group households. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Koonawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 9.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 6.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.8%) and graduate diplomas (0.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.0%) and certificates (34.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.6% in primary, 8.3% in secondary, and 2.7% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Koonawarra has 36 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 14 different routes that collectively facilitate 292 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing just 127 meters from the nearest stop. Most Koonawarra residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation, used by 93% of residents. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 13.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Each route has an average service frequency of 41 trips per day, resulting in approximately 8 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Koonawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Koonawarra faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, affecting both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at 49% of the total population (~1,922 people), compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and asthma are the most common conditions, affecting 11.3% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 59.3% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. The working-age population has notably high chronic condition rates. Koonawarra has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 16.1%, compared to 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly in line with national rankings, presenting some challenges.

Koonawarra ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Koonawarra's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 88.5% of its population being Australian citizens, born in Australia (83.6%), and speaking English only at home (93.5%). Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 47.9% of Koonawarra's population. The 'Other' religious category showed overrepresentation in Koonawarra with 0.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were English (31.6%), Australian (28.7%), and Scottish (7.2%). Notably, Australian Aboriginal (7.1%) was overrepresented in Koonawarra compared to the regional figure of 4.6%, as were Macedonian (1.0% vs 0.4%) and Spanish (0.7% vs 0.3%) groups.

Koonawarra's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Koonawarra is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group comprises 15.6% of the population in Koonawarra, higher than Rest of NSW, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 8.5%, which is less prevalent compared to Rest of NSW. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group grew from 13.7% to 15.6% and the 35-44 cohort increased from 11.8% to 13.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.1% to 11.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Koonawarra. Notably, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 23%, reaching 748 people from 610. Conversely, the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.