Avondale (NSW)

An assessment of population growth drivers in Avondale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, Avondale's population is estimated at around 1,941 people. This reflects an increase of 246 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,695 people in the Avondale (NSW) statistical area (Lv2). The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 1,874 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on Jun 2024 and an additional 1 validated new address since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 106 persons per square kilometer. Avondale's growth rate of 14.5% since the 2021 Census exceeded the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 40.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections where data was not available, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the Avondale (NSW) (SA2) is expected to expand by 230 persons to reach a population of 2,171 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 1.6% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Avondale according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Avondale has seen around 13 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling approximately 69 homes. In FY26 so far, there have been 5 approvals. The average population growth per dwelling built in Avondale between FY21 and FY25 was 0.4 people per year. This suggests that supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more buyer choices while supporting potential population growth above projections.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost of $350,000. Additionally, there have been $8.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, indicating Avondale's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Avondale has recorded somewhat elevated construction activity, with 27.0% more construction per person over the past five years. This preserves reasonable buyer options while sustaining existing property demand. However, recent construction activity has eased recently.

The current construction comprises 30.0% standalone homes and 70.0% medium and high-density housing. This shift towards higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 72.0% houses. This indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. Avondale reflects a transitioning market with around 232 people per approval. Future projections estimate Avondale will add approximately 30 residents by 2041 based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Avondale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nine projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the area, with key projects including Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), West Dapto Sports Hub and Community Centre, Forestview at St Luke's Village, and West Dapto Urban Release Area. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Avondale faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Avondale's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 7.6%.

Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable. As of September 2025825 residents are employed, but this is 3.8% higher than Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.8%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation in Avondale is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.4 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.5% compared to the regional 5.3%. There are 0.7 workers per resident in Avondale, suggesting a higher level of local employment opportunities. Over the past year, labour force increased by 0.1%, but employment decreased by 0.2%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment rate. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Avondale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, assuming no changes in population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Avondale had a median income among taxpayers of $56,379 and an average income of $69,504. These figures are slightly above the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated median income as of September 2025 would be approximately $61,374, with average income estimated at $75,662. From the 2021 Census, incomes in Avondale rank modestly, between the 33rd and 37th percentiles for household, family, and personal incomes. The predominant income cohort spans 32.1% of locals (623 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, consistent with surrounding regional trends at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 83.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 37th percentile.

Avondale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Avondale, as per the latest Census data, consisted of 71.5% houses and 28.5% other dwellings such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Avondale stood at 34.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 39.1% and rented ones at 26.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,903, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Avondale was $300, lower than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $365. Nationally, Avondale's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,903 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially lower at $300 versus the national figure of $375.

Avondale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 28.8% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 13.7% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 25.5% and group households making up 2.1%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Avondale shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 14.6%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.5%, followed by graduate diplomas (2.1%) and postgraduate qualifications (2.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 45.1% of residents aged 15+ holding them.

This includes advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (34.1%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (8.4%), secondary education (6.6%), and tertiary education (2.8%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Avondale shows 16 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops are served by a mix of buses along six individual routes, collectively providing 267 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 178 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 38 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Avondale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Avondale faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent among both younger and older age groups. Approximately 54% (~1,056 individuals) have private health cover, slightly higher than Rest of NSW at 52.0%.

The most frequent medical issues are arthritis (9.9%) and mental health concerns (9.5%). About 63.7% report no medical ailments, similar to the 63.9% in Rest of NSW. Around 18.0% (~349 people) are aged 65 or above. Health outcomes for seniors largely align with general population trends.

Avondale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Avondale's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 84.6% born in Australia, 91.9% being citizens, and 92.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 56.1%, compared to 58.1% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (31.6%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (7.5%).

Notably, Spanish (1.2%) and Hungarian (0.6%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.9% and 0.3%, respectively, while Macedonian was underrepresented at 1.9% versus the region's 3.8%.

Avondale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Avondale is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The percentage of people aged 25-34 in Avondale is notably higher at 16.3% compared to the Rest of NSW average, while those aged 15-24 are under-represented at 9.1%. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the population aged 35-44 has grown from 11.1% to 12.9%, and the 25-34 cohort has increased from 15.1% to 16.3%. Conversely, the 15-24 age group has declined from 10.4% to 9.1%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 11.1% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for Avondale indicate significant demographic changes by 2041. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to expand by 48 people (15%), from 316 to 365. Meanwhile, the 75-84 and 5-14 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.