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This analysis uses ABS Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) boundaries, which can materially differ from Suburbs and Localities (SAL) even when sharing similar names.
SA2 boundaries are defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and are designed to represent communities for statistical reporting (e.g., census and ERP).
Suburbs and Localities (SAL) represent commonly-used suburb/locality names (postal-style areas) and may use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
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ABS ERP | -- people | --
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Sales Detail
Population
Population growth drivers in Shellharbour - Oak Flats are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends
Shellharbour - Oak Flats' population was 10,590 as of April 2021. By November 2025, it had increased to around 11,031, a rise of 441 people (4.2%). This growth is inferred from ABS data: the estimated resident population in June 2024 was 10,964, and there were 242 new addresses validated since the Census date. The population density as of November 2025 is approximately 1,823 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Since April 2021, Shellharbour - Oak Flats' growth rate of 4.2% is close to that of non-metro areas (5.1%), indicating strong growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed about 72.9% of overall population gains recently, although natural growth and interstate migration also played positive roles.
AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in June 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in June 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations will be applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Shellharbour - Oak Flats' population is projected to grow by 2,526 persons, an increase of 22.3% over the 17-year period.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Shellharbour - Oak Flats among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide
Shellharbour - Oak Flats granted around 89 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25449 homes were approved, with another 18 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.2 new residents arrived per new home each year over these five years.
This suggests a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction value of new homes was $252,000, below the regional average, indicating more affordable housing options. In FY26, $22.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, suggesting balanced commercial development activity comparable to the rest of NSW. Recent construction comprises 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% medium and high-density housing, a shift from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses. This trend reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements.
Shellharbour - Oak Flats has approximately 182 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, it is forecasted to gain 2,455 residents. Current development levels appear aligned with future population growth needs, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Infrastructure
Shellharbour - Oak Flats has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally
Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely affecting the region. Notable projects include Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Links Hotel, Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension, and Blackbutt Dam Modification. Relevant projects are listed below.
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INFRASTRUCTURE SEARCH
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Regional Multi-Sports, Aquatics & Leisure Facility
Phased development of an all-purpose indoor and outdoor sports facility, including aquatics, to meet growing community demand. The project is currently an advocacy priority for Shellharbour City Council, with a business case and comprehensive consultation planned to ensure financial sustainability and community needs are met. Its purpose is to serve as headquarters for sports associations and host events with equitable access for diverse groups.
New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services
A $780+ million redevelopment delivering a new multi-storey Shellharbour Hospital at Dunmore with expanded emergency department, specialist elective surgery theatres, paediatrics, mental health inpatient unit, rehabilitation and aged care services, renal dialysis, oncology, ambulatory care and outpatients. The project also includes a new Warrawong Community Health Centre and upgrades to Bulli and Wollongong hospitals. Main construction works are well underway with practical completion expected in late 2027.
Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan
The Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan is a long-term plan aimed at creating a vibrant heart, resilient economy, and improved regional employment. It seeks to increase development opportunities in the Shellharbour CBD, deliver quality community spaces, and incorporate a mix of retail, entertainment, commercial, and residential developments. The plan includes government-owned land such as the site of the current Shellharbour Hospital (to be decommissioned upon completion of the new hospital in 2027), adjoining TAFE, and NSW Land and Housing properties, as well as privately-owned land. The masterplan is being progressed to unlock the city centre's potential as the economic, cultural, and social heart of the city.
Blackbutt Dam Modification
Modifications to Blackbutt Dam by Shellharbour City Council, including lowering the water level, reconstructing the embankment and spillway, and site restoration. The project was undertaken to improve safety, meet compliance requirements from Dams Safety NSW, and resulted in the dam being de-prescribed as a declared dam in 2022. Final landscaping works were scheduled for Spring 2022.
Park Central Bulky Goods Complex
Park Central is Illawarra's newest and most central bulky goods complex comprising 10 retail outlets plus cafe across 14,000 square metres with 300 car spaces. The complex features major national retailers including Officeworks, Spotlight, Anaconda, Supercheap Auto, RSEA Safety, Autobarn, Sydney Tools, and Petstock. Located opposite Bunnings Shellharbour and within 4km of Stockland Shellharbour, it serves as the region's premier bulky goods destination.
Shellharbour Airport Master Plan Upgrades
Comprehensive long-term development planning for Shellharbour Airport. The Master Plan (adopted May 2024) evaluates current infrastructure and considers future needs, proposing three scenarios for expanding commercial airline operations (medium or large aircraft) and establishing a vibrant business hub. The next stage, active for up to 2 years, involves detailed safety and business cases for expanded operations, including modelling and analysis of impacts like aircraft noise and flight paths. Prior infrastructure work, including a new terminal and the initial stage of the Aviation Business Park, was part of a $20.35 million upgrade. Future upgrades could include runway lengthening, terminal enhancements, and additional parking, depending on the viability assessment.
Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program
State-first two-year pilot program allowing mobile tiny homes on existing residential properties without development applications. Council approved September 23, 2025. Planning Proposal to amend Shellharbour LEP 2013 requires NSW Government approval and 28-day public consultation (up to 6 months process). Program provides affordable rental housing through moveable dwellings on trailers registered under Road Transport Act 2013, subject to strict conditions including minimum setbacks, connection to essential services, and fire safety compliance. Addresses housing crisis where median house price is $1 million.
Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension
A 30-year extension of the existing Albion Park Quarry extraction area, approved to secure approximately 33 million tonnes of hard rock resources for the Illawarra and Greater Sydney regions, ensuring continued supply for the construction industry. The project includes demolition of Belmont House and associated archaeological work, and construction of amenity barriers and tree screens.
Employment
The labour market performance in Shellharbour - Oak Flats lags significantly behind most other regions nationally
Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, well-represented essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 6.9% as of September 2025, and estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year. The area's unemployment rate is 3.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, indicating room for improvement, while workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%.
Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a particularly strong specialization in construction (1.3 times the regional level). Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.4% of Shellharbour - Oak Flats's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The ratio of workers to residents is 0.7, indicating a level of local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, labour force increased by 0.4%, and unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points, contrasting with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points.
State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%, compared to the national rate of 4.3%. National employment forecasts suggest growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections based on Shellharbour - Oak Flats's employment mix estimate growth of 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis
AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2022 shows that income in Shellharbour - Oak Flats SA2 is above the national average. The median income is $53,920 while the average income stands at $68,934. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year ending June 2022 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $60,719 (median) and $77,627 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Shellharbour - Oak Flats rank modestly, between the 26th and 34th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,353 residents), which is similar to the regional average of 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, with only 82.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 33rd percentile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Shellharbour - Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Shellharbour - Oak Flats dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour - Oak Flats was 41.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Weekly rent in Shellharbour - Oak Flats was $425, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size
Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Educational outcomes in Shellharbour - Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment
The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 8.9% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.
Educational participation is notably high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.9% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 3.7% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Transport analysis shows 89 active public transport stops operating within Shellharbour - Oak Flats area. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 56 individual routes serving these stops, collectively providing 3,160 weekly passenger trips.
Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 451 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Shellharbour - Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts
Health data indicates significant health challenges in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.
Approximately 54% (~5,923 people) have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (9.5%). About 62.3% claim to be free of medical ailments compared to 65.2% in Rest of NSW. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 23.4% (2,581 people), higher than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes face challenges, broadly aligned with general population's health profile.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
In terms of cultural diversity, Shellharbour - Oak Flats records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics
Shellharbour-Oak Flats has a cultural diversity above average, with 20.6% of its population born overseas and 13.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Shellharbour-Oak Flats, comprising 56.7%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.7%), and Other (7.1%).
Spanish (1.6%) is notably overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Macedonian also has a higher representation at 3.4% versus the regional 1.9%, as does Serbian at 0.6% against the regional 0.5%.
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Shellharbour - Oak Flats's median age exceeds the national pattern
Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a median age of 43, which is equal to Rest of NSW's figure and higher than Australia's average of 38. The area's age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 13.2%, while the 5-14 age group is smaller at 9.6% compared to Rest of NSW. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of people aged 25-34 has increased from 12.1% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 11.5% to 9.6%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 12.6% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Shellharbour - Oak Flats's age structure. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, adding 622 people and reaching a total of 2,074 from the current 1,451. Meanwhile, the 55-64 age cohort shows minimal growth of just 1%, with an increase of only 20 people.