Shellharbour - Oak Flats
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Shellharbour - Oak Flats are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Shellharbour - Oak Flats' population is approximately 11,030 as of August 2025. This figure shows an increase of 440 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,590. The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 10,965 residents in June 2024 and 241 new addresses validated post-census. This results in a density ratio of 1,823 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's 4.2% growth since the census is close to the non-metro area's 4.8%, indicating strong fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of recent population gains, with all drivers being positive factors.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by 2,526 persons, reflecting a total increase of 22.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Shellharbour - Oak Flats among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Shellharbour - Oak Flats granted approximately 89 residential property approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25449 homes were approved, with an additional 4 approved in FY-26 so far. On average, 1.2 new residents arrived per year for each new home over the past five financial years.

This indicates balanced supply and demand, creating stable market conditions. The average construction cost of new homes was $374,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $22.3 million, indicating comparable commercial activity relative to Rest of NSW. Recent construction comprised 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% medium and high-density housing, reflecting a shift from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses. This area has approximately 182 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

Population forecasts suggest Shellharbour - Oak Flats will gain 2,456 residents by 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Six projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area's performance. These include Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program at Jilba Park and Collins Reserve, The Links Hotel development, Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension, and Blackbutt Dam Modification.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

The labour market performance in Shellharbour - Oak Flats lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate in June 2025 was 6.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%. As of June 2025, 5,175 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 2.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area had a strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 0.4% of Shellharbour - Oak Flats's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.7, indicating a higher-than-average level of local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, while labour force grew by 0.8%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1% during the same period. State-level data for NSW up to Sep-25 showed employment contracted by 0.41%, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. National forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shellharbour - Oak Flats's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Shellharbour - Oak Flats is above the national average. The median income is $53,920 and the average income stands at $68,934. In contrast, Rest of NSW has a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% from financial year 2022 to March 2025, current estimates would be approximately $59,636 (median) and $76,241 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Shellharbour - Oak Flats rank modestly, between the 27th and 35th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, with 3,353 residents occupying this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, with only 82.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 33rd percentile.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, as per the latest Census, comprised 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour - Oak Flats stood at 41.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 31.2% and rented ones at 27.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Weekly rent in Shellharbour - Oak Flats was $425, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, mortgage repayments were higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national figure of $375.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 73.3% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Shellharbour - Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 32.1%. Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.9% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

The area's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,879 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 989) with balanced educational opportunities. There are three primary and two secondary schools, providing balanced education provision for distinct age groups. As an education hub, the area offers 26.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.3, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 89 active public transport stops within Shellharbour - Oak Flats area. These comprise a mix of train and bus services. A total of 56 individual routes operate, collectively facilitating 3,160 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 451 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 35 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Shellharbour - Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Shellharbour - Oak Flats faces substantial health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Approximately 54% (~5,923 people) of the total population has private health cover, which is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 62.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.2% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.4% (2,581 people), compared to the state average of 20.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shellharbour - Oak Flats was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour-Oak Flats has a cultural diversity above average, with 20.6% of its population born overseas and 13.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Shellharbour-Oak Flats, making up 56.7% of the population, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.7%), and Other (7.1%).

Notably, Spanish is overrepresented at 1.6%, Macedonian at 3.4%, and Croatian at 1.0%.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a median age of 43, matching Rest of NSW's figure and exceeding Australia's national average of 38 years. The age distribution indicates that individuals aged 25-34 are notably prevalent at 13.2%, while those aged 5-14 comprise a relatively smaller proportion at 9.6% compared to Rest of NSW. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.1% to 13.2% of the population. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 11.5% to 9.6%, and the 45-54 age group has fallen from 12.6% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shellharbour - Oak Flats's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, adding 622 people and reaching a total of 2,074 from its current figure of 1,451. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is expected to show minimal growth of just 1%, increasing by 20 people.