Shellharbour - Oak Flats
Statistical Area - sa2

Population growth drivers in Shellharbour - Oak Flats are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Shellharbour - Oak Flats' population is around 11,031 as of Nov 2025. This reflects a growth of 441 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 10,590. The increase is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 10,964 in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since then. This results in a density ratio of 1,823 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The area's growth rate of 4.2% since the census is within 0.9 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.1%. Overseas migration contributed approximately 72.9% of overall population gains during recent periods, with natural growth and interstate migration also being positive factors.

AreaSearch projections for each SA2 area are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024, using 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a 2021 base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to grow by an above median population growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas, with a total increase of 2,526 persons and a growth rate of 22.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential approval activity sees Shellharbour - Oak Flats among the top 30% of areas assessed nationwide

Shellharbour - Oak Flats granted around 89 residential property approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25449 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved so far in FY26. On average, 1.2 new residents arrived per new home each year during these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand.

The average construction cost of new homes was $252,000, below the regional average, suggesting affordable housing options for buyers. This financial year saw $22.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the rest of NSW, Shellharbour - Oak Flats shows comparable development activity per person, maintaining market equilibrium with surrounding areas. Recent construction comprised 17.0% standalone homes and 83.0% medium and high-density housing, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This shift from the current housing mix of 76.0% houses is due to reduced development site availability and changing lifestyle demands.

The area has approximately 182 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts project Shellharbour - Oak Flats will gain 2,455 residents by 2041. Existing development levels appear aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact the area. Key projects include Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program at Jilba Park and Collins Reserve, The Links Hotel, Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension, and Blackbutt Dam Modification. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Shellharbour - Oak Flats lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. The unemployment rate is 6.2%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.2%. As of June 2025, there are 5,175 residents in work. The unemployment rate is 2.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, but workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly strong with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.4% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio is 0.7, indicating above-normal local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, labour force grew by 0.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a 0.1% employment contraction, 0.3% labour force growth, and a 0.4% increase in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's May 2025 national employment forecasts suggest that Shellharbour - Oak Flats' employment could grow by approximately 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Shellharbour - Oak Flats is above the national average. The median assessed income is $53,920 and the average income stands at $68,934. In contrast, Rest of NSW's figures show a median income of $49,459 and an average income of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Shellharbour - Oak Flats would be approximately $60,719 (median) and $77,627 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Shellharbour - Oak Flats rank modestly, between the 27th and 35th percentiles. Income analysis reveals that the largest segment comprises 30.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (3,353 residents), which is similar to the regional figure of 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, with only 82.7% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 33rd percentile.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, as per the latest Census, consisted of 75.5% houses and 24.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour - Oak Flats was higher than Non-Metro NSW at 41.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (31.2%) or rented (27.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent was $425, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Shellharbour - Oak Flats' mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $425 against the national figure of $375.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 29.1% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 24.1% and group households comprising 2.6%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Shellharbour - Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 15.2%, substantially lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.0%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 43.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 32.1%. Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 8.9% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.7% in tertiary education.

The area's five schools have a combined enrollment of 2,879 students, serving typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 989) with balanced educational opportunities. There are three primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups. The area functions as an education hub with 26.1 school places per 100 residents, significantly higher than the regional average of 14.3, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has 89 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are a mix of train and bus services. They are serviced by 56 individual routes in total, providing 3,160 weekly passenger trips collectively.

Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest transport stop on average. Service frequency averages 451 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 35 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shellharbour - Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Shellharbour - Oak Flats, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 54% (~5,923 people) have private health cover, which is relatively high. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (10.9%) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 62.3% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in the Rest of NSW. In Shellharbour - Oak Flats, 23.4% (~2,581 people) are aged 65 and over, higher than the 20.9% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges largely consistent with the general population's health profile.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Shellharbour - Oak Flats was found to be above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour-Oak Flats has a higher-than-average cultural diversity, with 20.6% of its population born overseas and 13.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Shellharbour-Oak Flats, accounting for 56.7% of people, compared to 57.3% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (27.8%), Australian (26.7%), and Other (7.1%).

Notably, Spanish (1.6%) is overrepresented in Shellharbour-Oak Flats compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Macedonian (3.4% vs 1.9%) and Croatian (1.0% vs 0.7%) groups are also overrepresented.

Shellharbour - Oak Flats hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shellharbour - Oak Flats has a median age of 43, matching Rest of NSW's figure and exceeding the national average of 38 years. The area's age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 are notably prominent at 13.2%, while those aged 5-14 are comparatively smaller at 9.6% than in Rest of NSW. Between the 2021 Census and present, the proportion of 25 to 34-year-olds has increased from 12.1% to 13.2%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 11.5% to 9.6%, and the 45 to 54 group has dropped from 12.6% to 11.2%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Shellharbour - Oak Flats's age structure. Notably, the 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 43%, adding 622 people and reaching a total of 2,074 from its current figure of 1,451. In contrast, the 55 to 64 cohort shows minimal growth of just 1%, with an increase of only 20 people.