Flinders (NSW)

Flinders lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, as of Nov 2025, the Flinders (NSW) statistical area (Lv2)'s estimated population is around 7,036. This reflects a decrease of 82 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,118. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of resident population at 6,832 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 11 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 3,045 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, from 2015 to 2025, Flinders has shown resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%, outpacing its SA3 area. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 47.0% during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are utilised. Considering projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase is forecast for the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas like Flinders (NSW) (SA2), expected to expand by 3,171 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 51.4% in total over the 17 years from 2024 to 2041.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Flinders according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Flinders experiences limited development activity with an average of two approvals per year over the five-year period ending in 20XX, resulting in a total of fourteen dwellings. This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It is important to note that due to the small number of approvals, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics.

Compared to Rest of NSW and national averages, Flinders has much lower development activity. Recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings, offering affordable entry pathways for downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This shift represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 74.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and demand for more diverse, affordable housing options. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Flinders is projected to add 3,618 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Future projections show Flinders adding 3,618 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Flinders has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, and Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Flinders has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Flinders has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of September 2025.

Employment stability has been relative over the past year. AreaSearch aggregated statistical area data shows that 4,093 residents were in work by September 2025, with an unemployment rate in line with Rest of NSW's 3.8%. Workforce participation was higher at 66.4% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction had a particularly strong specialization, employing 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.2% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally based on Census working population vs resident population comparison. Employment levels increased by 0.2% and labour force increased by 0.5% during the year to September 2025, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. Rest of NSW recorded an employment decline of 0.5%, labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Flinders's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Flinders is approximately average nationally. The median income is $52,491 while the average income stands at $66,990. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $52,390 and the average income is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates for Flinders would be approximately $57,142 (median) and $72,925 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,103 weekly), while personal income sits at the 53rd percentile. The data shows that the predominant income cohort spans 36.3% of locals (2,554 people) falling within the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, but strong earnings still place disposable income at the 71st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Flinders, as per the latest Census evaluation, 73.7% of dwellings were houses while 26.4% comprised semi-detached properties, apartments, and other dwellings. This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's figures of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Flinders stood at 29.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.1% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average, while the median weekly rent was $490 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Flinders' mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Flinders features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.8% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.6% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Flinders aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 30.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.3% in primary, 9.1% in secondary, and 3.4% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Flinders has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 42 different routes that together offer 474 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to transport, with an average distance of 158 meters to the nearest stop.

On average, there are 67 trips per day across all routes, translating to about 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Flinders is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Flinders demonstrates above-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population.

However, this rate is higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. The area has approximately 53% private health cover, which is slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in Flinders, impacting 7.9 and 7.6% of residents respectively. About 71.3% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across Rest of NSW. The area has 13.8% of residents aged 65 and over (970 people), which is lower than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those of the broader population due to presenting some challenges.

In terms of cultural diversity, Flinders records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Flinders' cultural diversity aligns with the broader area's average. It has 83.7% of its population born in Australia, 93.2% being citizens, and 84.0% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Flinders, accounting for 62.8%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups are English (26.2%), Australian (25.5%), and Other (7.6%). Notably, Macedonian (6.5%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.9%. Spanish and Serbian also have higher representations at 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively, versus regional averages of 1.0% and 0.5%.

Flinders's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Flinders is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group comprises 14.8% of the population in Flinders, compared to a higher representation in Rest of NSW. Conversely, the 75-84 age cohort is less prevalent in Flinders at 4.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the proportion of the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.8% to 14.8%, while the 5-14 age group has declined from 15.7% to 14.4%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Flinders, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 71% (606 people), reaching a total of 1,465 from the current figure of 858.