Flinders (NSW)

Flinders lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the suburb of Flinders (NSW) is estimated to be around 6,867 as of May 2026. This estimate reflects a decrease from the previous census in 2021, which reported a population of 7,118 people. The latest resident population figure used for this estimation was 6,814, derived by AreaSearch following examination of the ABS's ERP data release in June 2025 and validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,972 persons per square kilometer, placing Flinders in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Interstate migration was the primary driver for population growth in recent periods, contributing approximately 47.0% of overall gains.

However, all factors including natural growth and overseas migration were positive contributors. For projections, AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for covered areas, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Flinders is expected to experience significant population growth, with an increase of 2,404 persons forecasted by the year 2041, reflecting a total increase of 34.2% over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Flinders is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Flinders experienced limited development activity with an average of two approvals per year over the five-year period from 2015 to 2019, resulting in a total of 14 dwellings. This low level of development is typical of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is constrained by local demand and infrastructure capacity. It is important to note that due to the small number of approvals, individual projects can significantly impact annual growth statistics.

Compared to other regions in NSW, Flinders has much lower development activity, with its development pattern also falling below national averages. Recent building activity has consisted entirely of attached dwellings, indicating a shift towards compact living which offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This change represents a notable departure from the area's existing housing stock, which is currently 74.0% houses, suggesting decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. According to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, Flinders is projected to add 2,351 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price growth.

Future projections show Flinders adding 2,351 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Flinders has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Six projects identified by AreaSearch are likely to impact the area significantly, influencing performance more than any other factor. These projects include New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, and Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Flinders has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Flinders has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 4.4%, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 3,557 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 0.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Flinders is 69.0%, exceeding Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses show that 25.0% of residents work from home, but Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Key industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction notably has employment levels at 1.3 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.2% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. During the year to December 2025, Flinders' labour force decreased by 2.7% and employment declined by 3.2%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points. Comparatively, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insight into potential future demand within Flinders. These projections suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Flinders' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

The suburb of Flinders' income level aligns with national averages based on latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers in Flinders is $52,491, with an average income of $66,990. These figures compare to Regional NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Projecting forward using Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from financial year 2023, estimated current incomes are approximately $57,908 (median) and $73,903 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 data indicates household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,103 weekly), with personal income at the 53rd percentile. Income brackets show that 36.3% of Flinders' community earns between $1,500 and $2,999 (2,492 individuals). This is consistent with broader metropolitan trends, where 29.9% fall into the same earnings category. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income in Flinders, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 71st percentile. The suburb's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census evaluated Flinders' dwelling structure as 73.7% houses and 26.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Flinders was 29.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 46.1% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Flinders was $490, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Flinders' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Flinders features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.8% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.6% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Flinders aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (30.9%). Educational participation is high, with 31.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (11.3%), secondary education (9.1%), and tertiary education (3.4%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Flinders has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 42 different routes that together facilitate 474 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living 158 meters away from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Flinders being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transportation at 97%. On average, there are 1.8 vehicles per dwelling in Flinders, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 67 trips per day across all routes, translating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Flinders's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Flinders residents, with AreaSearch's analysis finding mortality rates and health conditions generally matching national averages.

Common health condition prevalence is low overall but higher among older, at-risk groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~3,669 people), slightly above the average SA2 area rate. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (7.9%) and asthma (7.6%), with 71.3% reporting no medical ailments compared to Regional NSW's 63.3%. Under-65 residents have better-than-average health outcomes, while the senior population (14.2%, or 975 people) experiences some health challenges, ranking lower nationally than the broader population but higher than Flinders' overall health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Flinders records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Flinders' population composition, as of the 2016 Census, showed cultural diversity similar to its wider region's average. 83.7% were Australian-born, 93.2% were citizens, and 84.0% spoke English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Flinders, with 62.8%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were English (26.2%), Australian (25.5%), and Other (7.6%). Notably, Macedonian (6.5%) and Spanish (1.5%) groups were overrepresented in Flinders compared to the regional averages of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Additionally, Serbian ancestry was also higher at 1.1%.

Flinders's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Flinders is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constitutes 15.5% of the population in Flinders, compared to Regional NSW. Meanwhile, the 75-84 cohort makes up 4.6%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.8% to 15.5%, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 3.4% to 4.6%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 15.7% to 14.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Flinders. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 51%, reaching 1,191 people from its current figure of 789.