Flinders (NSW)

Flinders lies within the top quartile of areas nationally for population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Flinders' population is estimated at around 7,051 as of Feb 2026. This reflects a decrease of 67 people (0.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,118 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,832 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 11 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 3,052 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Flinders has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 47.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, a significant population increase in the top quartile of national non-metropolitan areas is forecast, with the suburb expected to expand by 3,151 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 50.9% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Flinders according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Flinders experienced limited development activity with an average of two approvals per year over the five-year period ending 20XX. This resulted in a total of fourteen dwellings being approved during this time. Such low levels of development are characteristic of rural areas where housing needs are modest and construction activity is naturally limited by local demand and infrastructure capacity.

It should be noted that due to the small number of approvals, individual development projects can significantly impact annual growth and relativity statistics. Compared to Rest of NSW and national averages, Flinders has much lower development activity. Recent building activity consists entirely of attached dwellings, reflecting a shift from the area's existing housing composition which is currently 74.0% houses. This skew towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. By 2041, Flinders is projected to add 3,590 residents according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate (released in QX 20XX).

Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Flinders has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified six projects that could impact the region. Notable ones are New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, and Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program. Details about these projects can be found below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Flinders has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Flinders has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.9%. Employment stability has been relatively consistent over the past year, according to AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 4,082 residents employed, with an unemployment rate in line with Rest of NSW at 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 78.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Census responses indicate that a moderate 25.0% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.3 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.2% of local workers, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as suggested by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1%, while labour force increased by 0.4%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with unemployment rising by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offer insights into potential future demand within Flinders. These projections indicate that national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Flinders's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though these are simple weighting extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 shows that income in Flinders is approximately average nationally. The median income is $52,491 while the average stands at $66,990. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $52,390 and the average is $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ending June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $57,142 (median) and $72,925 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household income ranks at the 72nd percentile ($2,103 weekly), while personal income sits at the 53rd percentile. The data shows that the predominant cohort spans 36.3% of locals (2,559 people) with incomes between $1,500 and $2,999 per week. High housing costs consume 16.7% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 71st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The latest Census revealed that in Flinders, 73.7% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 26.4% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. In contrast, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Flinders stood at 29.3%, with mortgaged properties at 46.1% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Flinders was $2,167, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Flinders was $490, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Flinders' mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Flinders features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 82.8% of all households, composed of 43.1% couples with children, 25.0% couples without children, and 14.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 17.2%, with lone person households at 15.6% and group households making up 1.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Flinders aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.7% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 30.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 9.1% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Flinders has 44 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 42 different routes that together provide 474 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 158 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Flinders being primarily residential. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 25% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 67 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Flinders's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data for Flinders residents shows positive outcomes overall.

Mortality rates and health conditions are largely in line with national benchmarks. The prevalence of common health conditions is low among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~3,767 people), slightly above the average for SA2 areas. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 7.9% and 7.6% of residents respectively. A majority (71.3%) report being free from medical ailments compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. The under-65 population exhibits better-than-average health outcomes. Flinders has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 14.2% (1,001 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 23.4%. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Flinders records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Flinders' population, born in Australia, stands at 83.7%, with 93.2% being citizens and 84.0% speaking English only at home, aligning with the wider region's averages. Christianity is the predominant religion in Flinders at 62.8%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups in Flinders are English (26.2%), Australian (25.5%), and Other (7.6%).

Notably, Macedonian (6.5%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%, Spanish (1.5% vs 0.3%), and Serbian (1.1% vs 0.2%).

Flinders's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Flinders is 36 years, significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 15-24 age group constitutes 14.9% of the population, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 75-84 cohort makes up 4.3%. Post-2021 Census data shows that the 15-24 age group has grown from 13.8% to 14.9%, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 15.7% to 14.1%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 13.8% to 12.7%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Flinders, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 69% (593 people), reaching 1,454 from 860.