Blackbutt (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Blackbutt are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the population of the Blackbutt (NSW) statistical area (Lv2) is estimated at around 3,534 people. This reflects an increase of 243 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,291 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,509, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 18 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,343 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Blackbutt (NSW) (SA2) saw a growth of 7.4% since the 2021 Census, exceeding the non-metro area's growth of 5.7%. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For any areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Blackbutt (NSW) (SA2) is expected to increase by 825 persons to 2041, reflecting an overall increase of 27.7% over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blackbutt according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Blackbutt averaged approximately 4 new dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers. Over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 21 homes were approved, with an additional 2 approved so far in FY-26. On average, each home built over these years brought in about 9.3 new residents annually.

This significant demand outpaces supply, which typically drives up prices and intensifies competition among buyers. The average construction cost value of new homes being built is around $378,000. In FY-26, there have been $93,000 in commercial development approvals, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Comparatively, Blackbutt has significantly less development activity than the rest of NSW, with 87.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Nationally, this activity is also below average, reflecting the area's maturity and suggesting possible planning constraints. New development in Blackbutt consists of 20.0% standalone homes and 80.0% medium to high-density housing.

This shift from the existing housing stock (currently 70.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles, with a need for more diverse and affordable housing options. With approximately 730 people per dwelling approval, Blackbutt presents as a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that Blackbutt will gain around 978 residents by the year 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially exacerbating buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Blackbutt has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Four projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly: Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program at Jilba Park and Collins Reserve, The Links Hotel development, Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension, and Blackbutt Dam Modification.

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Employment drivers in Blackbutt are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Blackbutt has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.5% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6% over the past year, according to AreaSearch's statistical area data aggregation.

As of that date, 1,709 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 3.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Blackbutt is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area shows strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0% compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

Limited local employment opportunities are indicated by the Census working population versus resident population count. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.6% and labour force by 0.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Blackbutt's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Blackbutt's median income among taxpayers at $55,101 and average at $70,432. These figures exceed national averages. Rest of NSW has a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Using Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 are approximately $59,983 (median) and $76,672 (average). The 2021 Census places Blackbutt's household, family, and personal incomes modestly between the 29th and 41st percentiles. The earnings profile shows 28.6% of locals (1,010 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, similar to metropolitan regions at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe with only 83.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 41st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 4th decile.

Blackbutt is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Blackbutt's dwellings, as per the latest Census, consisted of 70.1% houses and 29.9% other types (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackbutt stood at 40.9%, with mortgaged dwellings at 29.7% and rented ones at 29.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,000, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Blackbutt was $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Blackbutt's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,000 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $420 compared to the national figure of $375.

Blackbutt has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 76.5% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.2% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Blackbutt shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 17.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 39.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 11.2% and certificates at 28.2%. Educational participation is high, with 26.4% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary (8.2%), secondary (7.9%), and tertiary (4.7%) education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 27 active transport stops operating in Blackbutt, consisting of buses. These stops are served by 37 individual routes, offering a total of 641 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 139 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 91 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Blackbutt is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Blackbutt, with high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 55% (~1,935 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.5% of residents) and mental health issues (9.3%). Conversely, 63.9% report no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in Rest of NSW. Blackbutt has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 25.5% (901 people), compared to the state average of 20.9%. Health outcomes among seniors generally align with those of the wider population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Blackbutt was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackbutt's population shows higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 24.3% born overseas and 22.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Blackbutt, comprising 63.9%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (24.1%), Australian (22.7%), and Other (9.3%), all lower than regional averages.

Notably, Spanish (2.0%) and Macedonian (8.2%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Blackbutt compared to regional figures of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Croatian ethnicity is also higher at 1.6%.

Blackbutt hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Blackbutt's median age is 43, matching Rest of NSW and exceeding the national average of 38. The age profile indicates that 15-24 year-olds make up 13.0%, while those aged 5-14 comprise 8.8%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 group has increased from 5.3% to 7.8%, and the 85+ cohort has risen from 1.8% to 4.2%. Conversely, the 5-14 age group has decreased from 11.4% to 8.8%, and the 45-54 group has fallen from 15.4% to 13.0%. By 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Blackbutt's age structure. Notably, the 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 47%, reaching 607 people from 413. Meanwhile, the 15-24 group shows minimal growth of just 4% (19 people).