Blackbutt (NSW)

Population growth drivers in Blackbutt are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Blackbutt (NSW) is around 3,561. This represents an increase of 270 people since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 3,291. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, based on ERP data released by the ABS in June 2024 and validated new addresses, is 3,509. This results in a population density ratio of 1,354 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Blackbutt's population growth of 8.2% since the 2021 Census exceeds that of Rest of NSW (5.9%) and its SA4 region. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% to overall population gains recently, with all drivers being positive factors.

For projections until 2041, AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year for covered areas and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 with a 2021 base year for uncovered areas. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the suburb of Blackbutt (NSW) is projected to increase by 747 persons, reflecting a total increase of 19.5% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Blackbutt according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers for Blackbutt shows an average of around 4 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 20 homes were approved, with another 3 so far in FY-26. This results in about 9.7 new residents per year for every home built over the past five financial years.

Demand significantly outpaces supply, which can put upward pressure on prices and increase competition among buyers. The average value of new homes being built is $378,000. In FY-26, $93,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Blackbutt has significantly less development activity, with 87.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes, though building activity has accelerated in recent years. Nationally, Blackbutt also reflects market maturity and possible development constraints, with new development consisting of 20.0% standalone homes and 80.0% medium and high-density housing. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers.

It represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing, which is currently 70.0% houses. With around 730 people per dwelling approval, Blackbutt reflects a highly mature market. Population forecasts indicate that Blackbutt will gain 695 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, housing supply may struggle to match population growth, potentially heightening buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Blackbutt has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Four projects have been identified by AreaSearch as likely influencing the area. Key projects include Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Links Hotel, Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension, and Blackbutt Dam Modification.

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Employment drivers in Blackbutt are experiencing difficulties, placing it among the bottom 20% of areas assessed across Australia

Blackbutt has a skilled labor force with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.5% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.1%.

There are 1,722 residents currently employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Blackbutt is similar to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 22.8% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

The area has a strong specialization in manufacturing with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0%. Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 1.1% while labor force increased by 0.5%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw a decrease in employment by 1.2%, a contraction of labor force by 0.8%, and an increase in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that Blackbutt's employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest data released for financial year 2023, Blackbutt suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $55,101 and an average of $70,432. Nationally, the median was $52,869 with an average of $69,553. Regionally in NSW, it was $52,390 with an average of $65,215. By September 2025, estimates based on Wage Price Index growth suggest a median income of approximately $59,983 and an average of $76,672 for Blackbutt. The 2021 Census data shows household incomes ranked at the 34th percentile, family incomes at the 31st, and personal incomes at the 36th in Blackbutt. Most locals (28.6%, or 1,018 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 annually, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% fall into this range. Income remaining after housing costs was at the 41st percentile, with only 83.7% of income left. The SEIFA income ranking places Blackbutt in the fourth decile.

Blackbutt is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Blackbutt, as per the latest Census data, 70.1% of dwellings were houses while 29.9% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Blackbutt stood at 40.9%, similar to Regional NSW's rate. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 29.7% and rented ones made up 29.4%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Blackbutt was $2,000, higher than the Regional NSW average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Blackbutt was $420, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Blackbutt's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Blackbutt has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 76.5% of all households, including 34.3% couples with children, 28.7% couples without children, and 13.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 23.5%, with lone person households at 21.2% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Blackbutt shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

The area's university qualification rate is 17.1%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 11.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 39.4% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 8.2% in primary education, 7.9% in secondary education, and 4.7% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Blackbutt has 27 operational public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 37 different routes, offering a total of 641 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents on average located 139 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outside Blackbutt, with cars being the primary mode of transport at 94%. On average, there are 1.6 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 22.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, an average of 91 trips is made daily, equating to approximately 23 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Blackbutt is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Blackbutt faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch's mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Common health conditions are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

The rate of private health cover is approximately 55% of the total population (~1,950 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (impacting 10.5%) and mental health issues (9.3%), while 63.9% declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, similar to the 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 25.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (904 people), higher than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Blackbutt was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Blackbutt's population shows higher cultural diversity compared to most nearby areas, with 24.3% born overseas and 22.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Blackbutt, practiced by 63.9%, slightly higher than the Regional NSW average of 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups are English (24.1%), Australian (22.7%), and Other (9.3%).

Notably, Spanish (2.0%) and Macedonian (8.2%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Blackbutt compared to the regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Additionally, Croatian ethnicity is slightly higher at 1.6%.

Blackbutt hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Blackbutt has a median age of 43, which is equal to the Regional NSW figure and higher than the national average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that individuals aged 45-54 are particularly prominent, comprising 13.1% of the population, while those aged 5-14 make up a smaller proportion at 9.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present day, the percentage of people aged 75 to 84 has increased from 5.3% to 8.0%, and the 85+ cohort has grown from 1.8% to 4.0%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 45-54 has decreased from 15.4% to 13.1%, and those aged 5-14 have dropped from 11.4% to 9.2%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections show significant shifts in Blackbutt's age structure. Notably, the 75 to 84 age group is expected to grow by 48%, reaching 422 people from its current total of 284. Conversely, numbers in the 55-64 age range are projected to fall by 6%.