Shellharbour - Flinders
Statistical Area - sa2

Shellharbour - Flinders lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Shellharbour - Flinders' population was approximately 20,960 as of August 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,619 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,341. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,479 in June 2024 and an additional 516 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 422 persons per square kilometer. Shellharbour - Flinders' population growth of 8.4% since the 2021 Census exceeded both the non-metro area's growth rate of 4.8% and the SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 47.4% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilised, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over this period, with Shellharbour - Flinders expected to expand by 8,963 persons to 2041 based on the latest population numbers, reflecting a total increase of 40.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Shellharbour - Flinders among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Shellharbour - Flinders has granted around 198 residential property approvals annually. The Australian Bureau of Statistics produces development approval data on a financial year basis, with 994 dwellings approved over the past five financial years from FY-21 to FY-25, and 24 approvals so far in FY-26. On average, about 1.7 new residents arrive per new home annually over these five years, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics. The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $603,000, which is higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development.

This financial year has seen $38.9 million in commercial approvals, reflecting strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Shellharbour - Flinders shows moderately higher building activity, with 15.0% more approvals per person over the past five years. This balances buyer choice while supporting current property values, although construction activity has recently eased. Recent developments consist of 20.0% detached houses and 80.0% medium to high-density housing, marking a significant shift from the current pattern of 78.0% houses, possibly due to diminishing developable land availability and evolving lifestyle preferences. The location currently has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, suggesting potential for growth.

Population forecasts indicate that Shellharbour - Flinders will gain around 8,482 residents by 2041. However, at current development rates, housing supply may struggle to keep pace with population growth, potentially leading to increased buyer competition and property price increases.

Shellharbour - Flinders has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 45 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include The Waterfront Shell Cove, New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, and The Waterfront, Shell Cove, as listed below:.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Shellharbour - Flinders maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Shellharbour - Flinders has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.2%, lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Employment stability has been relative over the past year. As of June 2025, 10,881 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.2%, which is 0.4% below the Rest of NSW's rate. Workforce participation is high at 63.7%.

Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.4% of local workers, lower than the Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally appear limited, as indicated by Census data. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 0.5%, while labour force grew by 0.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW had an employment decline of 0.1% and a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shellharbour - Flinders' employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Shellharbour - Flinders' income level is above the national average according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2022. The median income among taxpayers in Shellharbour - Flinders is $53,705, and the average income stands at $68,539. This compares with figures for Rest of NSW of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,398 (median) and $75,804 (average) as of March 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,127 weekly), while personal income sits at the 57th percentile. Distribution data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.0% of the community (6,707 individuals), consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region showing 29.9% in the same category. A significant 31.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 75th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Shellharbour - Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Shellharbour - Flinders' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour - Flinders stood at 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.7% and rented ones at 24.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was $510, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Shellharbour - Flinders' mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,200 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially higher at $510 compared to the national figure of $375.

Shellharbour - Flinders features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.0% of all households, consisting of 41.5% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Shellharbour - Flinders exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates at 21.4% compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 14.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 29.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 9.4% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education. Seven schools operate within Shellharbour - Flinders, educating approximately 2,710 students. Shellharbour - Flinders has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1041) with balanced educational opportunities. The school mix includes four primary and three K-12 schools. Note: for schools showing 'n/a' in enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The Shellharbour - Flinders area has 123 active public transport stops. These are served by a mix of train and bus services, totalling 55 individual routes. Each week, these routes facilitate 2,041 passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located 185 metres from their nearest stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages at 291 trips per day, which equates to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Shellharbour - Flinders's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Shellharbour-Flinders residents showed favourable health outcomes, with low prevalence rates for common conditions among the general population, although higher than national averages among older and at-risk groups.

Approximately 54% (~11,255 people) had private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions were arthritis (8.4%) and mental health issues (7.4%), while 70.3% reported no medical ailments compared to 65.2% in Rest of NSW. The area had 17.4% residents aged 65 and over (3,655 people), lower than the broader NSW average of 20.9%.

In terms of cultural diversity, Shellharbour - Flinders records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour-Flinders had a cultural diversity profile similar to the broader region, with 83.4% of residents born in Australia, 93.0% being citizens, and 87.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 62.4%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (26.5%), and Irish (6.9%).

Notably, Macedonian (4.5%) Spanish (1.3%) and Maltese (1.9%) populations were higher than regional averages of 1.9%, 1.0% and 1.3% respectively.

Shellharbour - Flinders's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Shellharbour - Flinders is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shellharbour - Flinders has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (5.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 13.2% to 14.1% of the population, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 14.4% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shellharbour - Flinders's age structure, with the 25 to 34 group expected to grow by 58%, reaching 3,346 people from its current total of 2,114.