Shellharbour - Flinders

Shellharbour - Flinders lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Shellharbour - Flinders' population is around 21,109 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, when the population was 19,341 people. The change is inferred from ABS data: the estimated resident population in June 2024 was 20,479, with an additional 569 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 425 persons per square kilometer. Shellharbour - Flinders' growth rate of 9.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area's 5.1% and the SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 47.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate a significant population increase in regional areas, with Shellharbour - Flinders expected to expand by 8,963 persons to 2041, reflecting an increase of 39.5% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Shellharbour - Flinders among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Shellharbour - Flinders granted approval for approximately 198 residential properties annually over the past five financial years, totalling 994 homes. In FY26 so far, 54 approvals have been recorded. On average, around 1.7 new residents arrived per new home each year between FY21 and FY25. The average value of new dwellings developed was $519,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment.

This financial year has seen $38.9 million in commercial approvals, showing strong commercial development momentum. Compared to the rest of NSW, Shellharbour - Flinders had 15.0% higher building activity per person over the past five years. Recent construction comprises 20.0% detached houses and 80.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant shift from the current pattern of 78.0% houses. There are approximately 224 people per dwelling approval in the location. Population forecasts indicate Shellharbour - Flinders will gain 8,333 residents by 2041.

Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, but heightened competition among buyers is expected as the population grows.

Shellharbour - Flinders has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 40 projects that could impact the region. Notable projects include New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, and Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Shellharbour - Flinders shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Shellharbour - Flinders has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.7%.

Employment stability has been relatively consistent over the past year. As of September 2025, 11,136 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, 0.2% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation is high at 63.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.4% of local workers, significantly lower than Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Employment opportunities locally may be limited, as indicated by the difference between Census working population and resident population. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.1% while labour force increased by 0.5%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%. State-level data from 25-Nov shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%, slightly lower than the national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Shellharbour - Flinders' employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though these estimates are based on simple weighting extrapolations and do not account for localised population projections.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

The Shellharbour - Flinders SA2's median income among taxpayers was $53,705 and average income stood at $68,539 in the financial year 2022. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from financial year 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $60,477 (median) and $77,182 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household income ranked at the 74th percentile ($2,127 weekly), while personal income sat at the 57th percentile. The distribution data showed that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captured 32.0% of the community (6,754 individuals). A significant 31.3% earned above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consumed 15.5% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 74th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 7th decile.

Shellharbour - Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Shellharbour - Flinders, as per the latest Census, comprised 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour - Flinders was at 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.7% and rented ones at 24.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Weekly rent in Shellharbour - Flinders was recorded at $510, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Shellharbour - Flinders features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 82.0% of all households, including 41.5% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Shellharbour - Flinders exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 21.4%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common (14.7%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.3%) and certificates (29.5%). Educational participation is high, with 30.8% currently enrolled in formal education: 10.6% in primary, 9.4% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.6% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that in Shellharbour - Flinders there are currently 123 active public transport stops, offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 55 individual routes, which together facilitate approximately 2,041 weekly passenger trips. The report rates the area's transport accessibility as excellent, with residents on average located just 185 metres from their nearest transport stop.

Across all routes, service frequency averages around 291 trips per day, equating to roughly 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Shellharbour - Flinders's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Shellharbour - Flinders had relatively positive health outcomes based on available data.

The prevalence of common health conditions was low among the general population but higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 54% (~11,335 people) of residents had private health cover. Arthritis and mental health issues were the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.4% and 7.4% of residents respectively. 70.3% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 65.2% across Rest of NSW. The area had 17.4% (3,681 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which was lower than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW.

In terms of cultural diversity, Shellharbour - Flinders records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour-Flinders had a cultural diversity profile largely aligned with the broader region, with 83.4% of residents born in Australia, 93.0% being citizens, and 87.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 62.4%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (26.5%), and Irish (6.9%).

Notably, Macedonian (4.5%) Spanish (1.3%) and Maltese (1.9%) were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.9%, 1.0% and 1.3% respectively.

Shellharbour - Flinders's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

The median age in Shellharbour-Flinders is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shellharbour-Flinders has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (5.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 13.2% to 14.1%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has declined from 14.4% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shellharbour-Flinders's age structure, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 57% (an increase of 1,216 people), reaching a total of 3,346 from its current figure of 2,129.