Shellharbour - Flinders
Statistical Area - sa2

Shellharbour - Flinders lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Shellharbour - Flinders' population is approximately 21,109 as of November 2025. This figure represents an increase of 1,768 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 19,341. The growth was inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,479 in June 2024 and an additional 569 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 425 persons per square kilometer. Shellharbour - Flinders' growth rate of 9.1% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area's 5.1% and the SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 47.4% to overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate exceptional growth, placing Shellharbour - Flinders in the top 10 percent of locations outside capital cities between now and 2041. The area is expected to expand by 8,963 persons to reach a total population of approximately 30,072 by 2041, reflecting an increase of 39.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Shellharbour - Flinders among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Shellharbour - Flinders has granted approximately 198 residential property approvals annually on average over the past five financial years, totalling 994 homes. As of FY26, 36 approvals have been recorded. Over these five years, an average of 1.7 new residents per year have arrived for each new home approved. This suggests a balance between supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions.

The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $519,000, indicating a focus on the premium segment with upmarket properties. In FY26, commercial approvals have reached $38.9 million, demonstrating strong commercial development momentum compared to the Rest of NSW. Shellharbour - Flinders has shown moderately higher building activity than the regional average over the past five years, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. However, construction activity has recently eased. Recent construction in the area comprises 20% detached houses and 80% medium to high-density housing, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 78% houses).

This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. The location has approximately 224 people per dwelling approval, indicating room for growth. Population forecasts suggest Shellharbour - Flinders will gain 8,333 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with these growth projections, though increased competition among buyers can be expected as the population grows.

Shellharbour - Flinders has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 40 projects likely to impact the area. Key projects include New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Crowne Plaza Shell Cove Marina, and Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis indicates Shellharbour - Flinders maintains employment conditions that align with national benchmarks

Shellharbour - Flinders has a skilled workforce with strong representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.2% as of June 2021.

Over the past year, employment stability was relative. As of June 2025, 10,881 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 3.3%, which is 0.4% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Shellharbour - Flinders is 63.7%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, employing 19.8%, 12.0%, and 11.2% respectively. Agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.4% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 0.5% while labour force increased by 0.6%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.1 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shellharbour - Flinders's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.4%% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Shellharbour - Flinders's median income among taxpayers was $53,705 and average income stood at $68,539 in financial year 2022. These figures exceed the Rest of NSW's median ($49,459) and average ($62,998). By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $60,477 and average income $77,182, based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,127 weekly) and personal income at the 57th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 32.0% of Shellharbour - Flinders's community (6,754 individuals). A significant 31.3% earn above $3,000 weekly. High housing costs consume 15.5% of income, but disposable income ranks at the 75th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Shellharbour - Flinders is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Shellharbour - Flinders, as per the latest Census, consisted of 77.7% houses and 22.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour - Flinders stood at 35.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 40.7% and rented ones at 24.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,200, exceeding Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Shellharbour - Flinders was $510, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $430. Nationally, mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $1,863 and rents substantially above the national average of $375.

Shellharbour - Flinders features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households make up 82.0% of all households, including 41.5% couples with children, 28.8% couples without children, and 11.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 18.0%, with lone person households at 16.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.8 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Shellharbour - Flinders exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 21.4%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 14.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.3%. Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 29.5%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.6% in primary education, 9.4% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education. A robust network of seven schools operates within Shellharbour – Flinders, educating approximately 2,710 students. The area demonstrates typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1041) with balanced educational opportunities. The educational mix includes four primary and three K-12 schools. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to the parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis in Shellharbour - Flinders shows 123 active public transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 55 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 2,041 weekly passenger trips.

Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 185 meters from the nearest stop. Service frequency averages 291 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop.

Shellharbour - Flinders's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Shellharbour - Flinders residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions among the general population but higher among older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages.

Approximately 54% (~11,335 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (8.4%) and mental health issues (7.4%), while 70.3% report no medical ailments, higher than the Rest of NSW's 65.2%. The area has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 17.4% (3,681 people) compared to the broader NSW region at 20.9%.

In terms of cultural diversity, Shellharbour - Flinders records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour-Flinders, surveyed in June-August 2016, had a population with 83.4% born in Australia, 93.0% being citizens, and 87.5% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 62.4%. Across Rest of NSW, Christianity made up 57.3%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (26.5%), and Irish (6.9%). Notably, Macedonian (4.5% vs regional 1.9%), Spanish (1.3% vs 1.0%), and Maltese (1.9% vs 1.3%) groups were overrepresented.

Shellharbour - Flinders's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Shellharbour - Flinders is 39 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but essentially aligned with Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shellharbour - Flinders has a higher proportion of residents aged 15-24 (14.1%) but fewer residents aged 75-84 (5.6%). According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 15-24 has increased from 13.2% to 14.1%, while the proportion of those aged 5-14 has declined from 14.4% to 13.2%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Shellharbour - Flinders's age structure, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 57%, reaching 3,346 people from its current size of 2,129.