Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, Warilla's population is approximately 20,614, marking an increase of 217 people since the 2021 Census. This rise corresponds to a 1.1% growth from the previously reported figure of 20,397. The estimated resident population of 20,593 in June 2024, along with 139 validated new addresses since the Census date, supports this inference. This results in a population density ratio of 2,172 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.6% to Warilla's recent population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are utilized, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Warilla's population is projected to decrease by 166 persons overall, while specific age cohorts like the 25 to 34 group are expected to grow by 512 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen approximately 81 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 406 homes. As of FY26, 34 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good options for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $386,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing choices for buyers.

In FY26, $5.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the rest of NSW, Warilla shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. New building activity consists of 26.0% detached houses and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards compact living that offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 78.0% houses. The location has approximately 246 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that may impact the area, with key ones including Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent in essential services. The unemployment rate was 13.1% as of June 2025.

Employment grew by an estimated 1.2% over the past year. As of June 2025, 7,936 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 9.4%, significantly higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation in Warilla was 48.5%, lagging behind Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading industries for employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly specialized with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.3% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Employment opportunities appear limited locally based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.2% while labour force grew by 0.8%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. National unemployment was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, assuming constant population projections for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Warilla SA2's median income among taxpayers was $48,348 and average income stood at $59,295 in financial year 2022. This compares to Rest of NSW's median income of $49,459 and average income of $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since then, current estimates would be approximately $54,445 (median) and $66,772 (average) as of September 2025. According to census data, household, family and personal incomes in Warilla fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 27.9% of individuals earn within the $1,500 - 2,999 range (5,751 individuals), similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is comparable to Non-Metro NSW, which had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was at 36.4%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's rate. Mortgaged dwellings made up 25.9% and rented dwellings accounted for 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warilla was $1,820, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Weekly rent in Warilla was recorded at $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's figure of $430. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863 and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 68.3% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.5% and certificates at 32.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 181 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 48 different routes that together facilitate 892 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of the transport system is excellent, with residents living an average of 124 meters from their nearest stop.

On average, there are 127 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data showing high prevalence of common conditions across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 49% (around 10,121 people), lower than Rest of NSW's 52.7%, and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (10.5%), with 59.8% reporting no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in Rest of NSW.

Warilla has a higher proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 23.1% (4,759 people), compared to Rest of NSW's 20.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's population is approximately in line with the broader regional average regarding cultural diversity, with 80.7% born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 88.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warilla, comprising 56.5%, which is similar to the 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (28.3%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.1%) ethnicities are overrepresented in Warilla compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Additionally, Welsh ethnicity is slightly higher at 0.8%.

Warilla's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warilla's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows a prominent group of 25-34 year-olds at 12.5%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 10.8% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 11.6% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.1% to 10.8%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.6% to 12.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Warilla. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 17%, adding 440 residents to reach 3,009. In contrast, population declines are forecasted for the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts.