Warilla
Statistical Area - sa2

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Warilla's population is around 20,613 as of Aug 2025. This reflects an increase of 216 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,397 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,592 in June 2024 and an additional 139 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,172 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 56.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projections indicate an overall population decline by 166 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are expected to grow, notably the 25 to 34 age group projected to increase by 512 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen approximately 81 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 406 homes. As of FY26, 32 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choices for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $386,000, which is below regional levels, indicating more affordable housing options.

In FY26, $5.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting limited focus on commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warilla shows significantly reduced construction activity (56.0% below the regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. New building activity comprises 26.0% detached houses and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, indicating a shift towards compact living that offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a notable change from the area's existing housing composition, which is currently 78.0% houses. The location has approximately 246 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects that could impact the region. Notable initiatives include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel. Below is a list of projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent in essential services. The unemployment rate stood at 13.1% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2% over the past year.

Residents in work totaled 7,936, while the unemployment rate was 9.4% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lagged at 48.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stood out with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence at 0.3% compared to 5.3% regionally.

Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by Census data on working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 1.2%, labour force by 0.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5%% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Warilla's median income among taxpayers was $48,348 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $59,295 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated median and average incomes for Warilla as of September 2025 are approximately $54,445 and $66,772 respectively. According to census data, household, family, and personal incomes in Warilla all fall between the 10th and 13th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 27.9% of Warilla's community (5,751 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where 29.9% occupy this earnings band. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was 36.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,820, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure was recorded as $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 68.3% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area has university qualification rates of 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.1%, including 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education. Warilla has a robust network of 9 schools educating approximately 2,688 students. The educational mix includes 6 primary, 2 secondary, and 1 K-12 school. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 181 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 48 different routes that together provide 892 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 124 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 127 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions. Approximately 49% of Warilla's total population (~10,120 people) has private health cover, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 52.7%, and below the national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions in Warilla are arthritis (affecting 11.5% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 10.5%). Conversely, 59.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across the Rest of NSW. Warilla has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 23.1% (4,759 people), compared to the Rest of NSW average of 20.9%. The health outcomes among seniors in Warilla are broadly similar to those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 80.7% born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 88.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the dominant religion in Warilla at 56.5%, slightly lower than the Rest of NSW's 57.3%. The top three ancestry groups are English (28.3%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.1%) ethnicities are more prevalent in Warilla compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Serbian ethnicity is also slightly higher at 0.7%.

Warilla hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warilla's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are prominently represented at 12.5%, while those aged 45-54 comprise a smaller proportion at 10.8% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of Warilla's population aged 25-34 has increased from 11.6% to 12.5%. Conversely, the proportion of individuals aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.1% to 10.8%, and those aged 55-64 have dropped from 13.6% to 12.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Warilla, with the strongest projected growth occurring among individuals aged 25-34, who are expected to increase by 17%, adding 440 residents to reach a total of 3,009. In contrast, population declines are projected for those aged 45-54 and 65-74.