Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Warilla's population, as of February 2026, is approximately 20,669, showing an increase of 272 individuals since the 2021 Census. The 2021 Census reported a population of 20,397 in Warilla. This increase is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,590 as of June 2024 and an additional 141 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,178 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Warilla's population is expected to decline by 166 persons by 2041. However, the 25 to 34 age group is projected to increase by 512 people during this period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen approximately 81 new homes approved each year over the past five financial years, totalling 406 homes. As of FY26, 45 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, providing good choice for buyers. New properties are constructed at an average value of $296,000.

This financial year, $5.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's primarily residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Warilla shows substantially reduced construction activity (56.0% below regional average per person), which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This change is notable given the current housing mix of 78.0% houses. With around 246 people per dwelling approval, Warilla shows characteristics of a low density area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 14.4%, and estimated employment growth of 0.6% in the past year. As of September 2025, 7886 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 10.6% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags at 54.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%.

According to Census data, 17.1% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly prominent with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.3%.

The area offers limited local employment opportunities. In the period September 2025 to October 2025, employment increased by 0.6% and labour force by 0.2%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Warilla SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $52,106. The average income stood at $62,245 during the same period. These figures compare to Rest of NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Warilla SA2 would be approximately $56,723 (median) and $67,760 (average) as of September 2025. Census data shows that household, family and personal incomes in Warilla all fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile indicates that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 27.9% of the community (5,766 individuals), which is similar to the metropolitan region where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla stood at 36.4%, with the rest being mortgaged (25.9%) or rented (37.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,820, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Warilla was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were less than the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 68.3% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which matches the average for the Rest of NSW.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common university qualifications, with 8.1% of residents holding one, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 41.6% holding such qualifications.

Advanced diplomas account for 9.5% while certificates make up 32.1%. Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 192 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 48 different routes that together facilitate 896 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 124 meters, indicating excellent accessibility. Most residents commute outside Warilla, with cars being the primary mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency across all routes averages 128 trips per day, equating to roughly four weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this information, displaying the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant challenges in Warilla, as assessed by AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, common health conditions are prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover is relatively low, at approximately 50% of the total population (~10,417 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%. The most prevalent medical conditions in Warilla are arthritis (affecting 11.5% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 10.5%). Conversely, 59.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across the rest of NSW. The working-age population faces substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Warilla has a notable senior population, with 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,809 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's cultural diversity aligns with the wider region, with 80.7% born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 88.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warilla at 56.5%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups are English (28.3%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.1%) populations in Warilla exceed regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while Welsh representation is also higher at 0.8%.

Warilla's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warilla's median age is 42 years, comparable to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 12.8%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 10.5% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 11.6% to 12.8%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 12.1% to 10.5%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 13.6% to 12.4%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Warilla. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 13%, adding 357 residents to reach 3,009. In contrast, populations aged 5-14 and 65-74 are forecasted to decline.