Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Warilla's population, as of May 2026, is approximately 20,744. This figure represents an increase of 347 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 20,397. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 20,725 in June 2025 and an additional 146 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,185 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 60.4% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decline by 137 persons according to this methodology. However, the 25 to 34 age group is anticipated to grow by 445 people during this period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen approximately 81 new home approvals each year over the past five financial years, totalling 406 homes. As of FY26, 64 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average expected construction cost value of $296,000. This financial year, $5.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warilla shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 55.0% fewer approvals per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This change is notable given the current housing mix of 78.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Warilla's population density, at around 246 people per dwelling approval, reflects its low-density character. With stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 13 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel. Below is a list of those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, an unemployment rate of 14.4%, and estimated employment growth of 1.2% in the past year. As of December 2025, 7940 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 10.5% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation is lower at 54.2%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%.

According to Census data, 17.1% of residents work from home. Leading industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction has a significant employment share in Warilla, at 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with only 0.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities.

Over the past year, employment increased by 1.2% alongside labour force growth of 0.5%, reducing unemployment by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 1.2%, labour force contract by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4%. National employment forecasts from May-25 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local employment growth of 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Warilla SA2's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2023 was $52,106. The average income stood at $62,245 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Regional NSW, which had a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215 in 2023. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, the estimated median income as of March 2026 would be approximately $57,483, with an average income of around $68,669. Census data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Warilla fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 27.9% of individuals in Warilla earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, which is similar to the metropolitan region where 29.9% of individuals fall into this category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 10th percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was at 36.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 25.9% and rented ones at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warilla was $1,820, higher than Regional NSW's $1,733. Median weekly rent in Warilla was $350, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower ($1,820 vs $1,863) and rents were also less ($350 vs $375).

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households make up 68.3% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high at 27.1%, with 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 192 active public transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 48 different routes that together facilitate 896 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents typically located just 124 meters from the nearest stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outside Warilla, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 93%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.1% of residents work from home, a figure that may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 128 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop. The provided map displays the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately half of Warilla's total population (~10,454 people) has private health cover, lower than the national average of 55.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis (impacting 11.5% of residents) and mental health issues (affecting 10.5%). However, 59.8% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Warilla has 23.5% of residents aged 65 and over (4,870 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's population showed cultural diversity similar to the broader area, with 80.7% born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 88.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Warilla, accounting for 56.5%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were English (28.3%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3% vs regional 0.3%), Macedonian (2.1% vs regional 0.4%), and Welsh (0.8% vs regional 0.5%) were overrepresented in Warilla compared to Regional NSW.

Warilla's median age exceeds the national pattern

Warilla's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 12.7%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 10.7% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 11.6% to 12.7%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.1% to 10.7%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.6% to 12.3%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes in Warilla. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 14%, adding 366 residents to reach 2,993. Meanwhile, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 65-74 cohorts.