Warilla
Statistical Area - sa2

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Warilla's population, as of November 2025, is approximately 20,614 people. This figure represents an increase of 217 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 20,397. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,593 in June 2024 and an additional 139 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,172 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch uses NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the area's population is expected to decline by 166 persons by 2041. However, growth in specific age cohorts is anticipated, notably a projected increase of 512 people in the 25 to 34 age group.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen approximately 81 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling 406 homes. As of FY26, 34 approvals have been recorded. The population has fallen during this period, suggesting that new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice while new properties are constructed at an average value of $296,000. This financial year, $5.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating the area's primarily residential nature.

Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warilla shows substantially reduced construction, with 56.0% fewer approvals per person, which generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting a shift towards higher-density living to create more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix of 78.0% houses, likely due to reduced availability of development sites and shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Warilla has around 246 people per dwelling approval, indicating characteristics of a low-density area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Area infrastructure significantly impacts local performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects potentially affecting the area. Notable initiatives include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services well represented. The unemployment rate in Warilla was 13.1% as of June 2025.

This is significantly higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. There were 7,936 residents employed at that time, indicating room for improvement in employment opportunities. Workforce participation in Warilla lags behind the rest of NSW, with a participation rate of 48.5% compared to 56.4%. The leading industries employing Warilla residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Notably, construction is particularly prominent, with an employment share 1.4 times higher than the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence in Warilla, with only 0.3% of employment compared to 5.3% regionally. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment in Warilla increased by 1.2%, while the labour force grew by 0.8%. This resulted in a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, the Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for local population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Warilla's median income among taxpayers in financial year 2022 was $48,348. The average income stood at $59,295 during this period. For comparison, Rest of NSW had median and average incomes of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. Based on a Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes as of September 2025 are approximately $54,445 (median) and $66,772 (average). Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Warilla fall between the 10th and 13th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows that 27.9% of individuals in Warilla earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to metropolitan regions where this band captures 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structure in its latest Census showed 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was at 36.4%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's level. Mortgaged dwellings were 25.9%, rented ones 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,820, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167 and the national average of $1,863. Median weekly rent in Warilla was $350, less than Non-Metro NSW's $430 and the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.3% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 11.3%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is high at 27.1%, including 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education. Warilla has a robust network of 9 schools educating approximately 2,688 students, comprising 6 primary, 2 secondary, and 1 K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 181 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 48 different routes that together facilitate 892 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 124 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 127 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, as indicated by data showing high prevalence of common health conditions across both younger and older age groups. The area has a relatively low rate of private health cover, at approximately 49% (around 10,121 people), compared to 52.7% in the rest of NSW and the national average of 55.3%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.5% and 10.5% of residents respectively.

Notably, 59.8% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in the rest of NSW. Warilla has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 23.1% (4,759 people), compared to 20.9% in the rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with those of the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's cultural diversity aligns with its broader region, with 80.7% born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 88.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warilla at 56.5%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (28.3%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish, Macedonian, and Serbian ethnicities have higher representations in Warilla than regionally: Spanish at 1.3% vs 1.0%, Macedonian at 2.1% vs 1.9%, and Serbian at 0.7% vs 0.5%.

Warilla hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warilla's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 25-34 year-olds are prominent at 12.5%, while the 45-54 group is smaller at 10.8% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 11.6% to 12.5%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 12.1% to 10.8%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 13.6% to 12.5%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Warilla. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 17%, adding 440 residents to reach 3,009. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 65-74 cohorts.