Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

According to the analysis by AreaSearch, the population of Warilla is approximately 20,744 in May 2026. This represents a growth of 347 people (1.7%) relative to the 2021 Census, which recorded 20,397 residents. This demographic shift is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 20,725 along with 146 validated new addresses registered after the Census. The local population density stands at 2,185 persons per square kilometer, a level exceeding the average of the national locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The primary driver of this population growth was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 60.4% of the total gains in recent times.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a baseline year of 2022, are used by AreaSearch for SA2 areas. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, projections from the NSW State Government released in 2022 with a 2021 baseline are applied. Age cohort growth rates derived from these sources are extended to cover the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at these future trends, the methodology forecasts a population reduction for the area, with a projected loss of 137 persons by 2041. Conversely, expansion is predicted for certain age ranges, particularly the 25 to 34 age bracket, which is expected to grow by 445 people. Refer to the age section for further information.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

An average of about 81 residential approvals have been granted per year in Warilla, summing to 406 dwellings over the last 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, a total of 77 approvals have been logged. Against a backdrop of declining population in recent years, the rate of construction has been relatively sufficient, which is beneficial for buyers, with new homes carrying an average building cost of $296,000. Furthermore, commercial approvals valued at $5.7 million have been recorded in the current financial year, suggesting that commercial building projects are not a primary focus.

When compared to the Rest of NSW, Warilla exhibits a much lower volume of building activity, falling 55.0% below the regional per capita average. This constrained addition to housing supply generally helps sustain demand and prices for pre-existing properties. Recent construction approvals consist of 26.0% detached houses and 74.0% townhouses or apartments. The concentration on higher-density housing options provides lower-cost options for buyers and draws interest from downsizers, investors, and first-time buyers. This represents a clear departure from the current housing stock, which is 78.0% houses, showing a reduction in available land for development alongside shifting lifestyle patterns and a demand for more varied, affordable housing. The ratio of residents to dwelling approvals is roughly 248 people per approval, reflecting a low-density construction market.

Faced with forecasts of steady or shrinking population levels, Warilla is likely to see reduced housing demand, creating advantageous conditions for home buyers.

Warilla has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Local infrastructure projects, planning choices, and development initiatives are major influences on regional performance. A total of 13 key developments have been identified by AreaSearch as having a likely impact on the locality. Notable examples include the Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, the Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (including Jilba Park and Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel, with the list below outlining the most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The labour market performance in Warilla lags significantly behind most other regions nationally

The local workforce is evenly divided between professional and manual occupations, with a notable presence of essential services, an unemployment rate of 13.6%, and estimated annual job growth of 2.9%. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 8,119, while the unemployment rate of 9.5% sat above the Regional NSW benchmark of 4.1%, indicating room for progress, and labor force participation was quite low at 54.9% compared to the 60.6% recorded for Regional NSW. According to Census details, a modest 17.1% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by pandemic-related lockdowns.

The primary sectors employing local residents are healthcare & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The workforce displays a clear specialization in construction, with its employment share reaching 1.4 times the regional proportion. In contrast, the agricultural, forestry & fishing sector has a minimal footprint at 0.3% employment compared to the regional figure of 5.3%. This mostly residential community seems to provide few local jobs, as demonstrated by the discrepancy between the census-counted local workforce and the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch's evaluation of SALM and ABS statistics, the recent 12-month window experienced a 2.9% rise in employment and a 2.6% increase in the labor force, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. This stands in contrast to Regional NSW, where employment contracted by 0.9%, the labor force fell by 0.4%, and the unemployment rate climbed by 0.5 percentage points. Projections published by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional perspective on prospective employment demand in Warilla. These five and ten-year forecasts have been combined with the local industry breakdown to estimate future growth. Although national employment is predicted to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, the rates of change vary widely across different sectors. Applying these industry projections to the local workforce structure indicates that employment in Warilla should rise by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted calculation for illustration and does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on aggregate ATO statistics compiled by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, personal incomes in the Warilla SA2 are below the national average. The median income for local taxpayers is $52,106 and the average income is $62,245, compared to the Regional NSW averages of $52,390 and $65,215. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year yields estimated values of approximately $57,483 for the median and $68,669 for the average as of March 2026. Census records indicate that household, family, and individual incomes in Warilla all rank between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationwide. The income distribution shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly band accounts for 27.9% of the population (5,787 individuals), mirroring the broader metropolitan trend where 29.9% fall into this bracket. Household budgets are highly stretched, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, placing the area in the 10th percentile.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

At the time of the most recent Census, the distribution of housing types in Warilla was 78.3% separate houses and 21.7% other dwellings like townhouses and apartments, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings in Regional NSW. Home ownership in Warilla stood slightly below the Regional NSW rate at 36.4%, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (25.9%) or renters (37.7%). The median monthly cost for mortgaged households was higher than the Regional NSW average at $1,820, and the median weekly rent was recorded at $350, compared to regional averages of $1,733 and $330. From a national perspective, mortgage costs in Warilla are below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also lower than the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Families comprise the majority of households at 68.3%, consisting of couples with children (23.6%), couples without children (25.7%), and single parent households (17.9%). The remaining 31.7% are non-family households, with single person households accounting for 29.2% and group households making up 2.5%. The median household occupancy is 2.4 individuals, matching the Regional NSW average.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The locality experiences low rates of higher education, with university qualification levels (11.3%) falling far short of the NSW average of 32.2%. This situation presents a challenge as well as a target for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees represent the main qualification at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Practical and vocational qualifications are common, with 41.6% of the population aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (32.1%).

Enrolment rates are high, with 27.1% of local residents participating in formal study. Within this group, 10.1% are in primary school, 7.6% are in high school, and 2.5% are undertaking tertiary studies.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in Warilla include 192 active transit stops, consisting of bus services. These locations are served by 48 distinct routes, which combine to offer 896 weekly passenger trips. Access to public transit is highly rated, with the average distance to the nearest stop being 124 meters. Because the area is mostly residential, a large portion of the workforce travels outside the suburb, with private cars being the primary mode of travel for 93% of commuters. Average vehicle ownership is 1.3 cars per home, which is below the regional average. In the 2021 Census, 17.1% of residents worked from home, a figure that may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

The average service frequency is 128 trips daily across all transport routes, representing roughly 4 weekly trips for each individual stop. The accompanying map displays the 100 closest transit stops relative to the center of the area.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Assessments of death rates and the prevalence of long-term illnesses by AreaSearch indicate that Warilla faces significant health challenges, with common medical conditions noted among both younger and older demographics, while the proportion of residents with private health insurance is low at roughly 50% of the population (~10,454 people). This is below the Australian average of 55.7%.

The most prevalent health conditions recorded in the locality were arthritis and mental health challenges, affecting 11.5% and 10.5% of the population, respectively, while 59.8% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Health issues are notable among working-age residents, who experience higher rates of chronic illness. Residents aged 65 and over make up 23.5% of the population (4,870 people). Senior health outcomes show some difficulties, with national performance metrics generally mirroring those of the broader community.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Cultural diversity in Warilla is comparable to the regional average, with 80.7% of the population born in Australia, 88.8% holding citizenship, and 88.6% speaking only English in their households. The dominant religious affiliation is Christianity, accounting for 56.5% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

Regarding ancestral backgrounds, the three largest groups in Warilla are English at 28.3% of the population, Australian at 28.0%, and Scottish at 6.4%. There are also distinct differences in the concentration of other backgrounds: Spanish is highly represented at 1.3% of the population (compared to 0.3% regionally), Macedonian at 2.1% (compared to 0.4%), and Welsh at 0.8% (compared to 0.5%).

Warilla's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age of 42 years in Warilla is close to the Regional NSW average of 43 years, but older than the Australian median of 38 years. The demographic breakdown shows a high concentration of residents aged 25 - 34 (12.7%), while the 45 - 54 age bracket is smaller (10.7%) than is typical for Regional NSW. Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 25 to 34 grew from 11.6% to 12.7%. Meanwhile, the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 12.1% to 10.7% and the 55 to 64 group decreased from 13.6% to 12.3%. Projections for the year 2041 point to major demographic changes. The 25 to 34 age bracket is expected to see the largest increase of 14%, adding 366 people to reach a total of 2,993. Conversely, population declines are anticipated in the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 cohorts.