Warilla
Statistical Area - sa2

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Warilla's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 20,613. This figure represents an increase of 216 people since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 20,397. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,592 in June 2024 and an additional 139 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density of 2,172 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch employs NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area's population is projected to decline by 166 persons overall, while specific age cohorts like the 25 to 34 group are anticipated to grow, with an increase of 512 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen approximately 50 new homes approved each year. Development approval data is produced by the ABS on a financial year basis, totalling 252 approvals across the past five financial years from FY-20 to FY-25, with 30 approvals so far in FY-26. Despite population decline over recent years, development activity has been adequate relative to demand, maintaining an adequate supply of housing and creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average construction value for new properties is $386,000, below the regional average, suggesting more affordable housing options for buyers.

This financial year has seen $5.7 million in commercial development approvals, indicating limited focus on commercial development compared to residential. Compared to the rest of NSW, Warilla shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 59.0% fewer approvals per person than the regional average. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. New development consists of 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 78.0% houses. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The location has approximately 246 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 13 projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Waterfront Shell Cove - Marina & Town Centre, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), and The Links Hotel. Below is a list of most relevant projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 13.1% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 1.2%.

As of June 2025, 7,936 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 9.4%, which is above Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation lags at 48.5% compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction shows strong specialization with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence at 0.3%.

From June 2024 to June 2025, employment increased by 1.2% alongside labour force growth of 0.8%, resulting in a unemployment fall of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a rise in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to Sep-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.41% (losing 19,270 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Warilla's median income among taxpayers was $48,348 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $59,295 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. As of March 2025, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6%, current estimates suggest median income would be approximately $53,473 and average income around $65,580 in Warilla. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Warilla all fall between the 10th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 27.9% of residents (5,751 people) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket, consistent with broader trends across the region showing 29.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warilla, with only 79.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 11th percentile nationally.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warilla's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warilla was 36.4%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. Mortgaged dwellings were at 25.9% and rented ones at 37.7%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Warilla was $1,820, lower than the Non-Metro NSW average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Warilla was $350, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,820 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were less at $350 compared to the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 68.3% of all households, including 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.3%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (32.1%). Educational participation is high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 10.1% in primary, 7.6% in secondary, and 2.5% in tertiary education.

Warilla has a robust network of 9 schools educating approximately 2,688 students, comprising 6 primary, 2 secondary, and 1 K-12 school.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warilla has 181 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of bus routes totalling 48 individual services. Collectively, these routes provide 892 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Warilla is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 124 meters from the nearest transport stop. On average, there are 127 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately four weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Warilla faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low, with approximately 49% of Warilla's total population (~10,120 people) having it, compared to 52.7% in the Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.5%) and mental health issues (10.5%). Conversely, 59.8% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in the Rest of NSW. Warilla has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.1% (4,759 people), compared to 20.9% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly aligning with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla's population showed similar cultural diversity to the wider region: 80.7% were born in Australia, 88.8% were citizens, and 88.6% spoke English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Warilla at 56.5%, compared to 57.3% in Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (28.3%), Australian (28.0%), and Scottish (6.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.1%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Warilla compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively; Serbian ethnicity was also slightly higher at 0.7%.

Warilla hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Warilla's median age is 42 years, comparable to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 are notably prominent at 12.5%, while the 45-54 age group is comparatively smaller at 10.8% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the percentage of residents aged 25-34 has increased from 11.6% to 12.5%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 45-54 has decreased from 12.1% to 10.8%, and the 55-64 age group has dropped from 13.6% to 12.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts in Warilla, with the strongest projected growth being among the 25-34 cohort, expected to increase by 17%, adding 440 residents to reach a total of 3,009. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 65-74 age cohorts.