Warilla

Warilla has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Warilla's population is around 20,669 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 272 people (1.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 20,397 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 20,590 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 141 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 2,178 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 56.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the area's population expected to contract by 166 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 512 people. See the age section for more details.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Warilla recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Warilla has seen around 81 new homes approved each year, totalling 406 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 47 approvals have been recorded. Given population has fallen over the past period, new supply has likely been keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $296,000. Additionally, $5.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating the area's primarily residential nature.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Warilla shows substantially reduced construction (56.0% below regional average per person). This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. Recent construction comprises 26.0% detached dwellings and 74.0% townhouses or apartments. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points and suits downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 78.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 246 people per dwelling approval, Warilla shows characteristics of a low density area.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Warilla may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Warilla has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 13 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Waterfront Shell Cove, and The Links Hotel, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Warilla face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warilla features a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 14.4%, and 1.2% in estimated employment growth over the past year. As of December 2025, 7,940 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 10.5% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (54.5% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 17.1% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care and social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a particular employment specialization in construction, with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry and fishing has a limited presence with 0.3% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. The predominantly residential area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, the 12-month period saw employment increasing by 1.2% alongside the labour force increasing by 0.5%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.6 percentage points. This compares to Regional NSW, where employment fell by 1.2%, the labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Warilla. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Warilla's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

The Warilla SA2's income level is lower than the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for FY-23. The Warilla SA2's median income among taxpayers is $52,106 and the average income stands at $62,245, compared to Regional NSW's figures of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $56,723 (median) and $67,760 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Warilla all fall between the 10th and 12th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 27.9% of the community (5,766 individuals), reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 79.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 10th percentile.

Warilla is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Warilla, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 78.3% houses and 21.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Warilla slightly lagged that of Regional NSW, at 36.4%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (25.9%) or rented (37.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional NSW average at $1,820, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $350, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Warilla's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

Warilla has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 68.3% of all households, comprising 23.6% couples with children, 25.7% couples without children, and 17.9% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 31.7%, with lone person households at 29.2% and group households comprising 2.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional NSW average.

Warilla faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (11.3%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.6% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.5%) and certificates (32.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.1% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.1% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 192 active transport stops operating within Warilla, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 48 individual routes, collectively providing 896 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 124 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 93%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.3 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 17.1% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 128 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 4 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Warilla is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Warilla, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~10,417 people). The national average is 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.5% and 10.5% of residents, respectively, while 59.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.3% of residents aged 65 and over (4,809 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Warilla records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Warilla is roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 80.7% of its population born in Australia, 88.8% being citizens, and 88.6% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Warilla is Christianity, which makes up 56.5% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Warilla are English, comprising 28.3% of the population, Australian, comprising 28.0% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 6.4% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Spanish is notably overrepresented at 1.3% of Warilla (vs 0.3% regionally), Macedonian at 2.1% (vs 0.4%) and Welsh at 0.8% (vs 0.5%).

Warilla's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 42 years, Warilla's median age is similar to the Regional NSW average of 43 while considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows 25 - 34 year-olds are particularly prominent (12.8%), while the 45 - 54 group is comparatively smaller (10.5%) than in Regional NSW. In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 11.6% to 12.8% of the population. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from 12.1% to 10.5% and the 55 to 64 group dropped from 13.6% to 12.4%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Warilla. The 25 to 34 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 13%, adding 357 residents to reach 3,009. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5 to 14 and 65 to 74 cohorts.