Port Kembla - Warrawong

Port Kembla - Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Port Kembla-Warrawong's population was 9,726 as of May 2026, a decrease of 14 people from the 2021 Census figure of 9,740. This change is inferred from ABS estimated resident population data and validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density ratio was 1,395 persons per square kilometer, above national averages according to AreaSearch's analysis. Overseas migration contributed approximately 81.1% of recent population gains in the area. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Projections indicate an overall population decline of 6 persons by 2041, but growth is anticipated within specific age cohorts, particularly the 25 to 34 age group projected to expand by 171 people over this period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Port Kembla - Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Port Kembla - Warrawong has seen around 28 dwelling approvals per year. From FY-21 to FY-25, a total of 144 homes were approved, with an additional 10 approved in FY-26 so far. The population decline in recent years has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost value of $301,000. This financial year has seen $13.7 million in commercial approvals, indicating balanced commercial development activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Port Kembla - Warrawong shows significantly reduced construction levels, with 53.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. The area's activity is also below the national average, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations.

New development consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% medium to high-density housing, maintaining the area's suburban identity with a concentration of family homes suited for buyers seeking space. The location has approximately 527 people per dwelling approval, reflecting an established area. With population expected to remain stable or decline, Port Kembla - Warrawong should experience reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Port Kembla - Warrawong has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

AreaSearch has identified 17 projects likely to impact the area, with key ones being Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, Warrawong Plaza Redevelopment, Warrawong Community Health Centre, and Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home. The following list details those expected to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Port Kembla - Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Port Kembla-Warrawong had a balanced workforce in December 2025 with an unemployment rate of 20.1%. It had 3,285 residents employed while the regional NSW unemployment rate was 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation was 51.7% compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%.

According to Census responses, 20.8% of residents worked from home. Key industries were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area had a strong specialization in administrative & support services with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 0.5%.

There were 0.8 workers per resident, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. In the 12 months prior, labour force increased by 0.6% while employment declined by 2.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 2.5 percentage points. This compared to Regional NSW where employment fell by 1.2%, labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.4% over ten years. Applying these projections to Port Kembla-Warrawong's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, assuming constant population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows Port Kembla - Warrawong SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,517 and an average of $62,927. This is lower than the national average. Regional NSW's median was $52,390 with an average of $65,215. By March 2026, estimates suggest median income will be approximately $57,937 and average $69,421, based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023. Census data indicates household, family, and personal incomes in Port Kembla - Warrawong fall between the 6th and 7th percentiles nationally. In this area, 27.1% of individuals have incomes ranging from $400 to $799, unlike metropolitan regions where the $1,500 to $2,999 category is predominant at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 7th percentile nationally.

Port Kembla - Warrawong is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

The latest Census data shows that in Port Kembla - Warrawong, 71.6% of dwellings are houses, with the remaining 28.3% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. In comparison, Regional NSW has 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Port Kembla - Warrawong stands at 36.7%, with mortgaged properties at 21.6% and rented ones at 41.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area is $1,820, higher than Regional NSW's $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Port Kembla - Warrawong is $300, slightly lower than Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, mortgage repayments are lower at $1,863 and rents are substantially higher at $375 compared to the area's figures.

Port Kembla - Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 63.4% of all households, including 23.9% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households making up 2.7%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Port Kembla - Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (26.5%).

Educational participation is high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Port Kembla-Warrawong has 98 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 36 different routes that together facilitate 1,076 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located 146 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to its residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport, used by 91% of residents. Vehicle ownership averages one per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 20.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency across all routes is an average of 153 trips per day, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Port Kembla - Warrawong is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data shows significant health challenges in Port Kembla - Warrawong. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high across both younger and older age groups.

Only approximately 50% of the total population (~4,901 people) has private health cover, compared to the national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 10.3 and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 62.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 63.3%. The working-age population faces particular health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 20.5% (1,997 people), compared to Regional NSW's 23.4%. While health outcomes among seniors are generally in line with the national rankings, some challenges exist.

Port Kembla - Warrawong was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Port Kembla-Warrawong, surveyed between June 2016 and June 2021, had a population with 30.5% born overseas and 31.4% speaking a language other than English at home, higher than most local markets. Christianity was the predominant religion at 61.5%, slightly above Regional NSW's 55.9%. Ancestry wise, Australian (20.8%) and English (20.6%) were the top groups, both lower than regional averages of 30.0% and 30.5% respectively.

'Other' ancestry stood at 11.4%, substantially higher than Regional NSW's 4.8%. Notable ethnic group representations included Macedonian at 10.2% (regional average 0.4%), Spanish at 1.2% (0.3%) and Serbian at 1.0% (0.2%).

Port Kembla - Warrawong's median age exceeds the national pattern

Port Kembla-Warrawong's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 are prominent at 14.2%, while those aged 65-74 comprise a smaller proportion at 9.9% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.9% to 14.2%, and the 0-4 cohort has risen from 6.0% to 7.1%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 12.9% to 11.9%. By 2041, demographic forecasts indicate significant changes for Port Kembla-Warrawong. The 75-84 cohort is projected to grow by 22%, adding 155 residents to reach a total of 853. In contrast, population declines are forecast for the 85+ and 5-14 cohorts.