Port Kembla - Warrawong

Port Kembla - Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Port Kembla - Warrawong's population is around 9,770 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 30 people (0.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,740 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 9,744 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 32 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 1,401 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, which contributed approximately 69.5% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Regarding demographic trends, lower quartile growth of Australia's non-metropolitan areas is anticipated, with the area expected to expand by 14 persons to 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting a decline of 0.1% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Port Kembla - Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Port Kembla - Warrawong has recorded around 28 residential properties granted approval each year, totalling 144 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 8 approvals have been recorded. With population declining over recent years, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice, while new properties are constructed at an average value of $301,000. Additionally, $13.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity.

Relative to the Rest of NSW, Port Kembla - Warrawong records markedly lower building activity (54.0% below regional average per person). This constrained new construction usually reinforces demand and pricing for existing dwellings. This level is similarly under the national average, indicating the area's established nature and suggesting potential planning limitations. New building activity consists of 81.0% standalone homes and 19.0% medium and high-density housing, preserving the area's suburban nature with an emphasis on detached housing attracting space-seeking buyers. At around 527 people per approval, Port Kembla - Warrawong indicates a mature market.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Port Kembla - Warrawong may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Port Kembla - Warrawong has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 17 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, Warrawong Plaza Redevelopment, Warrawong Community Health Centre, and Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Port Kembla - Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Port Kembla - Warrawong possesses a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, and an unemployment rate of 20.1%. As of December 2025, 3,285 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 16.1% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation lags significantly (51.8% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 20.8% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Employment among residents is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area demonstrates a particularly notable concentration in administrative & support, with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.5% of Port Kembla - Warrawong's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. The ratio of 0.8 workers for each resident, as at the Census, indicates a level of local employment opportunities above the norm.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, the labour force increased by 0.6% combined with employment decreasing by 2.5%, resulting in the unemployment rate rising by 2.5 percentage points. This compares to Regional NSW, where employment fell by 1.2%, the labour force contracted by 0.8%, and unemployment rose 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Port Kembla - Warrawong. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Port Kembla - Warrawong's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Port Kembla - Warrawong SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,517 with the average level standing at $62,927. This is lower than average on a national basis and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $57,170 (median) and $68,502 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Port Kembla - Warrawong all fall between the 6th and 7th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $400 - 799 earnings band captures 27.1% of the community (2,647 individuals), unlike trends in the region where 29.9% fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 80.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 7th percentile.

Port Kembla - Warrawong is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure within Port Kembla - Warrawong, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 71.6% houses and 28.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Port Kembla - Warrawong slightly lagged that of Regional NSW, at 36.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (21.6%) or rented (41.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was above the Regional NSW average at $1,820, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Port Kembla - Warrawong's mortgage repayments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

Port Kembla - Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households dominate at 63.4% of all households, comprising 23.9% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 36.6%, with lone person households at 33.7% and group households comprising 2.7% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people matches the Regional NSW average.

Port Kembla - Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.0%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (8.7%) and certificates (26.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 27.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.8% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 98 active transport stops operating within Port Kembla - Warrawong, comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 36 individual routes, collectively providing 1,076 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 146 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 91%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per dwelling, which is below the regional average. Some 20.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 153 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Port Kembla - Warrawong is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Port Kembla - Warrawong, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 50% of the total population (~4,924 people), compared to the national average of 55.7%.

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and arthritis, impacting 10.3% and 10.0% of residents, respectively, while 62.8% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 20.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,986 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Port Kembla - Warrawong was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Port Kembla - Warrawong is more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 30.5% of its population born overseas and 31.4% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Port Kembla - Warrawong is Christianity, which makes up 61.5% of the population. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Port Kembla - Warrawong are Australian, comprising 20.8% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 30.0%, English, comprising 20.6% of the population, which is notably lower than the regional average of 30.5%, and Other, comprising 11.4% of the population, which is substantially higher than the regional average of 4.8%. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Macedonian is notably overrepresented at 10.2% of Port Kembla - Warrawong (vs 0.4% regionally), Spanish at 1.2% (vs 0.3%) and Serbian at 1.0% (vs 0.2%).

Port Kembla - Warrawong's median age exceeds the national pattern

At 41 years, Port Kembla - Warrawong's median age is somewhat lower than the Regional NSW average of 43 yet modestly exceeds the 38-year national average. The 25 - 34 age group shows strong representation at 14.4% compared to Regional NSW, whereas the 65 - 74 cohort is less prevalent at 10.0%. Post-2021 Census data shows the 0 to 4 age group has grown from 6.0% to 7.7% of the population, while the 25 to 34 cohort increased from 12.9% to 14.4%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 12.9% to 11.8%. Demographic modeling suggests Port Kembla - Warrawong's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 75 to 84 cohort shows the strongest projected growth at 23%, adding 155 residents to reach 839. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 85+ and 5 to 14 cohorts.