Port Kembla - Warrawong

Port Kembla - Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Based on calculations by AreaSearch, the population of Port Kembla - Warrawong stands at approximately 9,726 as of May 2026. This represents a contraction of 14 people (0.1%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 9,740 people. This shift is calculated using the ABS estimated resident population of 9,681 from June 2025 alongside 29 validated new addresses identified after the Census date. The population density reaches 1,395 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the typical figure for national locations analyzed by AreaSearch. The main factor behind population growth in the region was overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 81.1% of all population additions in recent times.

AreaSearch implements ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 region, which were published in 2024 using 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 regions lacking this data, projections from the NSW State Government at the SA2 level are used, published in 2022 using 2021 as the base year. Growth rates for different age cohorts derived from these datasets are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking at future demographic trends over this timeframe, projections show a drop in the total population, with a forecast loss of 6 persons by 2041 under this approach. Conversely, expansion is expected within particular age brackets, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is forecast to increase by 171 people. See the age section for more details.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Port Kembla - Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Approximately 28 new residential approvals have been recorded annually in Port Kembla - Warrawong, amounting to 144 homes over the last 5 financial years. Thus far in FY-26, 16 approvals have been registered. With the local population declining, the supply of housing has kept pace with demand, leading to a balanced market environment offering options for buyers, while new dwellings carry an average construction value of $301,000. Additionally, commercial approvals have reached $13.7 million this financial year, reflecting a steady flow of commercial investment.

Port Kembla - Warrawong displays significantly reduced construction activity compared to the Rest of NSW, registering 53.0% below the regional per capita average. This restricted flow of new housing generally aids demand and pricing for existing properties. This rate is also below the national average, indicating a mature market and highlighting potential constraints on development. New construction consists of 81.0% detached dwellings and 19.0% medium and high-density housing, maintaining a suburban character focused on detached options that appeal to buyers wanting space. The area averages about 525 people for each residential approval, which points to an established suburb.

Faced with projections of a steady or shrinking population, Port Kembla - Warrawong is likely to experience reduced pressure on housing, creating positive conditions for home buyers.

Port Kembla - Warrawong has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Developments in local infrastructure, major construction, and planning updates have a significant impact on local performance. AreaSearch has identified a total of 17 projects expected to influence the region. Key undertakings include the Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, the Warrawong Plaza Redevation, the Warrawong Community Health Centre, and the Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home, with details on the most relevant developments provided below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Port Kembla - Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

The local workforce in Port Kembla - Warrawong is balanced between white and blue collar occupations, with good representation in essential service sectors, an unemployment rate of 19.2%, and stable employment patterns over the past year. As of March 2026, 3,366 local residents are employed, while the unemployment rate sits 15.1% higher than the Regional NSW rate of 4.1%, pointing to capacity for growth, and participation in the labour force is notably low at 52.4% compared to 60.6% in Regional NSW. Census data indicates that a moderate 20.8% of local workers operated from home, though this may have been influenced by Covid-19 lockdown measures.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a particularly high concentration of workers in administrative & support services, with employment levels reaching 1.6 times the regional average. In contrast, agriculture, forestry & fishing accounts for only 0.5% of the local workforce, compared to 5.3% across Regional NSW. A ratio of 0.8 workers for every resident was recorded at the Census, indicating a higher level of local job opportunities than is typical.

Analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch indicates that during the year leading to March 2026, the labour force grew by 2.8% while total employment fell by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to climb by 2.4 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW experienced a 0.9% decrease in employment, a 0.4% contraction in the labour force, and a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment. National employment projections from Jobs and Skills Australia released in May-25 provide further context on potential employment trends in Port Kembla - Warrawong. These projections, spanning five and ten years, are aligned with the local workforce profile to project potential growth. Although total national employment is projected to grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, expansion rates vary widely by sector. Applying these sectoral projections to the employment profile of Port Kembla - Warrawong indicates that local employment would grow by 6.3% over five years and 13.4% over ten years, though this is a basic weighted projection for illustration and does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch's compilation of the most recent postcode level ATO statistics released for the financial year 2023, the Port Kembla - Warrawong SA2 recorded a median taxpayer income of $52,517, alongside an average income of $62,927. These figures sit below national benchmarks and compare to median and average levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusted for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since the financial year 2023, current estimates indicate levels of roughly $57,937 for the median and $69,421 for the average as of March 2026. Census data from 2021 places household, family, and individual incomes in Port Kembla - Warrawong within the 6th to 7th national percentiles. The distribution indicates the $400 - 799 bracket is the most common, accounting for 27.1% of residents (2,635 people), which contrasts with the wider regional pattern where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket is largest at 29.9%. Affordability pressures are high, leaving residents with only 80.5% of their income, which ranks in the 7th percentile.

Port Kembla - Warrawong is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Residential structures in Port Kembla - Warrawong at the time of the last Census consisted of 71.6% houses and 28.3% other dwelling types including semi-detached houses, apartments, and alternative options, compared to Regional NSW where houses made up 82.6% and other structures accounted for 17.4%. The rate of home ownership in Port Kembla - Warrawong was slightly below the Regional NSW average at 36.7%, with remaining properties either mortgaged (21.6%) or rented (41.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the locality was $1,820, which is higher than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, while the median weekly rent was $300, compared to $330 in Regional NSW. Nationally, mortgage payments in Port Kembla - Warrawong are below the Australian average of $1,863, and rent levels are considerably lower than the national figure of $375.

Port Kembla - Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Families make up the majority of households at 63.4%, which includes 23.9% couples with children, 21.6% couples without children, and 16.8% single parent households. The remaining 36.6% consists of non-family households, with single person households accounting for 33.7% and group households making up 2.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, matching the average for Regional NSW.

Port Kembla - Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The region presents educational hurdles, with university graduation rates at 15.0%, which is well below the NSW average of 32.2%. This scenario presents both a difficulty and a chance for focused educational programs. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.4% and graduate diplomas at 1.3%. Practical and trade qualifications are prominent, with 35.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational qualifications, split between advanced diplomas at 8.7% and certificates at 26.5%.

Enrollment rates in study are high, with 27.4% of the population participating in formal education. This group is comprised of 9.8% in primary schools, 7.6% in secondary schools, and 3.4% enrolled in tertiary institutions.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of transit options shows 98 active transport stops operating in Port Kembla - Warrawong, consisting of bus services. These stops accommodate 36 distinct routes, which provide a total of 1,076 weekly passenger trips. Access to transport is rated as excellent, with residents living an average of 146 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the suburban character of the area, most commuters travel out of the suburb, with private vehicles remaining the primary choice at 91%. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.0 per home, which is lower than the regional average. Approximately 20.8% of workers worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect COVID-19 circumstances.

Daily transit services average 153 trips across all active routes, which represents approximately 10 weekly trips for each transport stop.

Health performance in Port Kembla - Warrawong is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health statistics show notable difficulties in Port Kembla - Warrawong, based on AreaSearch's evaluation of death rates and the frequency of chronic conditions. The occurrence of typical health problems is evident in both younger and older demographics, and the proportion of residents with private health insurance is low at roughly 50% of the population (~4,901 people). The national average stands at 55.7%.

Mental health conditions and arthritis were identified as the most frequent medical issues in the region, affecting 10.3 and 10.0% of the population, respectively. Meanwhile, 62.8% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Chronic disease rates are elevated among the working-age population, presenting challenges. Residents aged 65 and over constitute 20.5% of the local population (1,997 people), which is lower than the 23.4% average for Regional NSW. Health statistics for older residents present difficulties, with rankings generally matching those of the broader community.

Port Kembla - Warrawong was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Port Kembla - Warrawong displays greater cultural diversity than most regional markets, with 30.5% of residents born outside Australia and 31.4% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion in Port Kembla - Warrawong, followed by 61.5% of the population. This compares to 55.9% recorded across Regional NSW.

Looking at parent countries of birth, the three largest ancestry groups in Port Kembla - Warrawong are Australian at 20.8% of the population (below the regional average of 30.0%), English at 20.6% (below the regional average of 30.5%), and Other at 11.4% (substantially higher than the regional average of 4.8%). Significant differences are also visible in other ethnicities, with Macedonian highly represented at 10.2% of Port Kembla - Warrawong (compared to 0.4% regionally), Spanish at 1.2% (compared to 0.3%), and Serbian at 1.0% (compared to 0.2%).

Port Kembla - Warrawong's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Port Kembla - Warrawong is 42 years, which is close to the Regional NSW average of 43 years but older than the national median of 38 years. The local demographic profile shows a high proportion of people aged 25 - 34 years (14.2%), while the 65 - 74 age group is smaller (9.9%) than the regional average. Since 2021, the 25 to 34 cohort has increased from 12.9% to 14.2% of the population, and the 0 to 4 group grew from 6.0% to 7.1%. In contrast, the 55 to 64 group decreased from 12.9% to 11.9%. Population projections for 2041 indicate notable shifts, with the 75 to 84 bracket expected to grow the most at 22%, adding 155 people to reach 853. Conversely, population drops are projected for the 85+ and 5 to 14 brackets.