Berkeley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Berkeley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Berkeley is around 8,070. This figure reflects a growth of 272 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,798. The increase was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 8,039 residents following their examination of ABS' latest ERP data release in June 2025 and an additional 55 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1,102 persons per square kilometer, which is comparable to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Berkeley's growth rate of 3.5% positions it within 1.2 percentage points of the SA3 area (4.7%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth in the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area as released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Examining future population trends, the suburb is expected to grow by approximately 902 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of about 10.8% in total over the 16-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Berkeley, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Berkeley has experienced around 26 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Approximately 132 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 15 approved so far in FY-26. Despite population decline, development activity has been adequate relative to other areas.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $385,000. This year, there have been $1.1 million in commercial approvals, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential. Compared to the rest of NSW, Berkeley shows approximately half the construction activity per person and places among the 53rd percentile of areas assessed nationally, suggesting established nature and potential planning limitations. New development consists of 52.0% detached houses and 48.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 89.0% houses), indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 300 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density market.

Population forecasts indicate Berkeley will gain 871 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Construction is maintaining a reasonable pace with projected growth, although buyers may encounter growing competition as population increases.

Berkeley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to impact the area. Notable ones include Berkeley Square (Berkeley Shopping Centre Upgrade), King Street Warrawong Masterplan, Hooka Creek Road Retirement Village, and Alukea Road Major Culvert Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Berkeley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Berkeley has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 13.8% in December 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 1.0% over the past year (AreaSearch). As of December 2025, 3,150 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 9.8% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Berkeley was 55.1%, lower than Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census data, 16.8% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. The area has a notable specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.7 times the regional level), but agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.4% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 1.0% while labour force grew by 1.4%, raising the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points (AreaSearch). In contrast, Regional NSW saw a contraction in employment (-1.2%), a decrease in labour force (-0.8%), and an increase in unemployment (0.4%). Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies by industry. Applying these projections to Berkeley's employment mix suggests local employment could grow by 6.2% in five years and 13.2% in ten years (simple weighting extrapolation).

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of postcode level ATO data released on June 30, 2023, Berkeley had a median taxpayer income of $46,718 and an average income of $55,868. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 in Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from June 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $51,539 (median) and $61,634 (average). Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Berkeley fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 29.1% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to the regional trend of 29.9%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Berkeley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Berkeley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 88.8% houses and 11.2% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Regional NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Berkeley was at 32.5%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.4% and rented ones at 39.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average. The median weekly rent was recorded as $290, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Berkeley's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Berkeley has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 69.2% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 18.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 30.8%, with lone person households at 27.6% and group households comprising 3.1%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4 people.

Berkeley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (29.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Berkeley has 65 active public transport stops, serving a mix of bus routes. These are operated by 17 different routes, offering a total of 518 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living 180 meters from the nearest stop. Most commutes in this residential area are outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode at 92%. On average, there are 1.3 vehicles per dwelling, lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 16.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 74 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Berkeley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Berkeley faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 49% of Berkeley's total population (~3,959 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 10.5% and 10.0% of residents respectively. However, 61.7% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Berkeley has 18.7% of residents aged 65 and over (1,509 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Senior health outcomes align with national rankings but present some challenges.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Berkeley was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Berkeley's population was found to be more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 22.9% born overseas and 21.1% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Berkeley as of 20XX, making up 56.9% of its population. Islam comprised 6.9%, significantly higher than the Regional NSW average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, the top three groups were Australian (25.1%), English (23.1%), and Other (10.9%). Notably, Macedonian (5.0%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%, Serbian (0.8%) exceeded the regional average of 0.2%, and Lebanese (1.9%) also surpassed the regional average of 0.2%.

Berkeley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Berkeley is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 14.1% of the population in Berkeley, higher than the Regional NSW average, while those aged 65-74 comprise only 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the proportion of people aged 25 to 34 has increased from 12.5% to 14.1%, while the share of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 13.7% to 12.6%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic shifts in Berkeley. The number of people aged 25 to 34 is projected to increase by 325 individuals (29%), from 1,137 to 1,463. Conversely, the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are expected to decrease in population.