Berkeley

An assessment of population growth drivers in Berkeley reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Berkeley is around 7,964, reflecting a growth of 166 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,798. This increase was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 7,800 in Jun 2024, based on ABS ERP data and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. The population density is approximately 1,088 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed around 62% of overall population gains during recent periods in Berkeley. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in Jun 2024 with 2022 as the base year, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in Dec 2022 with 2021 as the base year.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the population of Berkeley is expected to increase by around 927 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of approximately 9.6% over the 17-year period. This growth rate is just below the median for national regional areas.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Berkeley according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Berkeley has experienced around 26 dwellings receiving development approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 132 homes were approved, with 12 more approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, this level of development activity is considered adequate relative to the area's size, which could benefit buyers due to increased housing supply.

The average construction cost value for new homes is $385,000. In terms of commercial development, there have been $1.1 million in approvals this financial year, indicating minimal activity in this sector compared to residential development. When compared to the rest of NSW and nationally, Berkeley shows approximately half the construction activity per person and places among the 53rd percentile of areas assessed, suggesting an established area with potential planning limitations. In terms of dwelling types, new development consists of 52.0% detached houses and 48.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 89.0% houses), indicating diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The location has approximately 301 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Berkeley is forecasted to gain 763 residents by 2041, suggesting that existing development levels are aligned with future requirements, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Berkeley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to affect the region. Notable ones include Berkeley Square (Berkeley Shopping Centre Upgrade), King Street Warrawong Masterplan, Hooka Creek Road Retirement Village, and Alukea Road Major Culvert Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Berkeley face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Berkeley has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors, and an unemployment rate of 13.8%. Over the past year, employment remained relatively stable. As of December 2025, 3057 residents are employed, but the unemployment rate is high at 9.9%, compared to Regional NSW's 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Berkeley lags behind Regional NSW at 55.2% versus 61.3%. According to Census data, 16.8% of residents work from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Key industries for local employment include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Berkeley has a significant specialization in transport, postal & warehousing (1.7 times the regional level), but agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.4% of workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%.

The area may have limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparisons. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment in Berkeley increased by 0.3%, while the labour force grew by 0.7%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decrease by 1.2% and the labour force fall by 0.8%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Berkeley's industry mix suggests local employment could increase by 6.2% in five years and 13.2% in ten years, though these estimates are illustrative and do not account for localized population projections.

The area's income levels rank in the lower 15% nationally based on AreaSearch comparative data

AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023 shows that Berkeley had a median income among taxpayers of $46,718 and an average income of $55,868. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Regional NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Berkeley's median income would be approximately $50,857 and average income would be around $60,818 as of September 2025. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Berkeley all fall between the 8th and 14th percentiles nationally. Income distribution data reveals that the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 29.1% of the community (2,317 individuals), which is consistent with broader trends across the region showing 29.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Berkeley, with only 81.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 13th percentile nationally.

Berkeley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Berkeley, as assessed in the latest Census, 88.8% of dwellings were houses while the remaining 11.2% consisted of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This distribution differed from Regional NSW's composition of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Berkeley stood at 32.5%, with mortgaged properties making up 28.4% and rented dwellings accounting for 39.1%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,733, aligning with Regional NSW's average. However, the median weekly rent in Berkeley was recorded at $290, compared to Regional NSW's figure of $330. Nationally, Berkeley's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and its median weekly rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Berkeley has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 69.2% of all households, including 27.5% couples with children, 22.9% couples without children, and 18.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 30.8%, with lone person households at 27.6% and group households comprising 3.1% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Berkeley faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 13.2%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.1%) and graduate diplomas (1.2%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (8.5%) and certificates (29.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.8% in primary education, 8.4% in secondary education, and 3.4% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Berkeley has 65 active public transport stops, served by 17 bus routes. These routes facilitate 518 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent access to transport, with an average distance of 180 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to Berkeley's residential nature. Cars remain the primary mode of transport at 92%. The car ownership rate is 1.3 per dwelling, lower than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 16.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. On average, there are 74 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Berkeley is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Berkeley faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 49% of the total population (~3,907 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common medical conditions, affecting 10.5% and 10.0% of residents respectively.

However, 61.7% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. Berkeley has 18.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,457 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

The level of cultural diversity witnessed in Berkeley was found to be slightly above average when compared nationally for a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Berkeley's population was found to have high overseas-born and non-English speaking percentages, with 22.9% born overseas and 21.1% using a language other than English at home. Christianity dominated as the main religion in Berkeley, accounting for 56.9% of its population. Islam was notably overrepresented, comprising 6.9%, significantly higher than Regional NSW's average of 0.8%.

In terms of ancestry, Australians made up 25.1%, while English ancestry was lower at 23.1%, compared to the regional average of 30.5%. Other ancestry accounted for 10.9%, substantially higher than the regional average of 4.8%. Some ethnic groups showed notable disparities: Macedonian (5.0% vs regional 0.4%), Serbian (0.8% vs 0.2%), and Lebanese (1.9% vs 0.2%) were overrepresented in Berkeley compared to Regional NSW averages.

Berkeley's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Berkeley is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 14.1% of the population in Berkeley, compared to Regional NSW's average, indicating over-representation. Conversely, the 75-84 age group comprises only 5.5%, showing under-representation. Between the 2021 Census and now, the proportion of people aged 25 to 34 has increased from 12.5% to 14.1%. During this period, the share of those aged 55 to 64 has decreased from 13.7% to 12.8%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant changes in Berkeley's demographics. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 303 people (27%), reaching a total of 1,426 individuals. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 65-74 age groups are expected to experience population declines.