Lake Heights

Population growth drivers in Lake Heights are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area around Lake Heights, the suburb's population is estimated at approximately 4,211 as of February 2026. This reflects an increase of 106 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,105. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of Lake Heights' resident population at 4,124 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,583 persons per square kilometer, placing Lake Heights in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade ending in 2021, Lake Heights demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking at population projections moving forward, an above median population growth of Australia's regional areas is projected for Lake Heights, with the suburb expected to grow by 568 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 11.4% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Lake Heights, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, Lake Heights has experienced around 11 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years up to FY26. This totals an estimated 59 homes. So far in FY26, five approvals have been recorded. The average construction value for new properties is $385,000.

There have also been $1.2 million in commercial approvals this financial year. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lake Heights shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 54.0% below the regional average per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. New building activity shows 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 83.0% houses. Lake Heights reflects a low density area with around 341 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate Lake Heights will gain 481 residents through to 2041. Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Population forecasts indicate Lake Heights will gain 481 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Should current construction levels persist, housing supply could lag population growth, likely intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Lake Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Lake Heights Public Preschool, Warrawong Community Health Centre, King Street Warrawong Masterplan, and Berkeley Square (Berkeley Shopping Centre Upgrade). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lake Heights face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Heights has a balanced workforce comprising both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 15.0% as of December 2025. Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable.

Compared to Regional NSW's unemployment rate of 3.9%, Lake Heights' rate is 11.1% higher. Workforce participation in Lake Heights is lower at 56.3%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 21.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Lake Heights has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Lake Heights' workforce compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, the labour force increased by 0.1%, while employment declined by 0.1%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced an employment decline of 1.2% and a labour force decline of 0.8%, with an unemployment rate increase of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Heights' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Lake Heights had a median income among taxpayers of $51,241. The average income stood at $61,278. This is below the national average. Across Regional NSW, the median and average incomes were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Lake Heights would be approximately $55,781 (median) and $66,707 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household, family and personal incomes in Lake Heights all fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 30.8% of the population, which is 1,296 individuals, fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range. This mirrors regional levels where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lake Heights, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile.

Lake Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lake Heights dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.7% houses and 17.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is comparable to Regional NSW's composition of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Heights was at 38.3%, similar to Regional NSW's level. Mortgaged dwellings accounted for 31.8%, with rented dwellings making up 29.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lake Heights was $1,950, higher than the Regional NSW average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure in Lake Heights was recorded at $400, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lake Heights' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Lake Heights has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.2% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households making up 3.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lake Heights faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both challenges and opportunities for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (28.4%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lake Heights has 37 active public transport stops, all serving buses. These stops are covered by 19 different routes, offering a total of 746 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically living just 117 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential zone, most commuting is outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode at 95%. On average, there are 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 21.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 106 trips per day, equating to about 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Heights is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Heights faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,155 people). The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 8.6 and 8.4% of residents respectively. 67.0% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 18.8% of residents aged 65 and over (791 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Lake Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Heights was found to have a higher cultural diversity than most local markets, with 30.5% of its population born overseas and 32.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lake Heights, comprising 58.1% of the population. However, Islam is significantly overrepresented at 9.6%, compared to the Regional NSW average of 0.8%.

Regarding ancestry, the top three groups in Lake Heights are Australian (19.9%), English (17.0%), and Other (16.9%). Notably, Macedonian (6.2%) Spanish (1.5%), and Hungarian (0.7%) ethnicities are overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively.

Lake Heights's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Lake Heights is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years, and also younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 16.0% of the population in Lake Heights, compared to Regional NSW. Conversely, the 65-74 age group makes up 8.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.5% to 16.0%, while the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.6% to 9.7%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Lake Heights. Notably, the 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 27% (183 people), reaching 857 from 673. Conversely, the 15-24 and 55-64 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.