Lake Heights

Population growth drivers in Lake Heights are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

As of Nov 2025, Lake Heights' population is estimated at around 4,221 people, reflecting an increase of 116 individuals since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 4,105. This growth is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population as 4,211 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in Jun 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. The suburb's population density is 2,589 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lake Heights' growth of 2.8% since census positions it within 2.3 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth in the suburb. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022.

For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, the suburb is projected to experience above median population growth of Australia's regional areas, expected to grow by 548 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 10.1% in total over the 17 years.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lake Heights according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Between FY12 and FY16, Lake Heights had approximately 14 dwelling approvals annually, totalling around 71 homes. As of FY26, there have been 5 approvals recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population change.

The average construction cost value is $385,000, lower than regional norms, offering more affordable housing options. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lake Heights has approximately half the rate of new dwelling approvals per person and ranks at the 67th percentile nationally. Recent construction comprises equal parts detached and attached dwellings, a shift from the current 83% houses, suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences. There are around 204 people per dwelling approval in Lake Heights, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts suggest an increase of 425 residents by 2041. Current construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Population forecasts indicate Lake Heights will gain 425 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Present construction rates appear balanced with future demand, fostering steady market conditions without excessive price pressure.

Lake Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely affecting this region. Notable ones are Lake Heights Public Preschool, Warrawong Community Health Centre, King Street Warrawong Masterplan, and Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lake Heights face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Heights has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

The area specializes in construction, with employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Unemployment rate was 13.4% as of June 2025, 9.7% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was 54.2%, below Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, labour force decreased by 0.2% and employment by 0.6%, increasing unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Heights's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Lake Heights had a median taxpayer income of $51,241 and an average income of $61,278. These figures are below the national averages of $67,049 (median) and $73,371 (average). In Rest of NSW, median income was $49,459 and average income was $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated current incomes are approximately $57,702 (median) and $69,005 (average) as of September 2025. According to the 2021 Census, Lake Heights' household, family, and personal incomes rank between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.8% of Lake Heights' population earns $1,500 - 2,999, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lake Heights, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Lake Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lake Heights' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.7% houses and 17.3% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Heights was 38.3%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's figure. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (31.8%) or rented (29.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lake Heights was $1,950, below the Non-Metro NSW average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Lake Heights' mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Lake Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 72.2% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 3.6% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, matching the average for the Rest of NSW.

Lake Heights faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (28.4%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education. Lake Heights Public School serves the area, enrolling 138 students as of a specific date. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity is limited (3.3 places per 100 residents vs 12.9 regionally), leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lake Heights currently has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 719 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 117 meters, indicating excellent accessibility.

On average, there are 102 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 19 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Heights is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Heights faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent among both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~2,160 people) of the total population has private health cover, slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (8.6%) and mental health issues (8.4%). About 67.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. Around 18.2% (~768 people) of residents are aged 65 and over, with senior health outcomes presenting some challenges broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Lake Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Heights exhibited higher cultural diversity than most nearby areas, with 30.5% of its residents born overseas and 32.6% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Lake Heights, comprising 58.1% of the population. However, Islam's representation was notably higher at 9.6%, surpassing the Rest of NSW average of 3.3%.

In terms of ancestry, Australian (19.9%), English (17.0%), and Other (16.9%) were the top groups in Lake Heights, with notable differences from regional averages: Australian was lower than the regional average of 26.3%, English also lower at 26.1%, and Other substantially higher than the regional average of 7.8%. Certain ethnic groups showed significant disparities: Macedonian at 6.2% (regional average 3.8%), Spanish at 1.5% (regional average 0.9%), and Hungarian at 0.7% (regional average 0.3%).

Lake Heights's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Lake Heights is 36 years, which is significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years, and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 25-34 age group has a strong representation at 15.6% compared to Rest of NSW, while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 8.3%. According to data from the post-2021 Census, the 25-34 age group has grown from 14.5% to 15.6% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 10.6% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Lake Heights. Leading this shift, the 25-34 age group is expected to grow by 29%, reaching a population of 847 from its current 658. Conversely, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are forecasted to experience population declines.