Lake Heights

Population growth drivers in Lake Heights are above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of the Lake Heights statistical area (Lv2) was estimated at around 4,211 as of November 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 106 people since the Census in 2021, which reported a population of 4,105. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of the resident population at 4,124 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and validation of five new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,583 persons per square kilometer, placing Lake Heights in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 62.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Lake Heights (SA2) is projected to experience above median population growth compared to Australia's regional areas. By 2041, the area is expected to grow by 547 persons, reflecting a gain of 10.3% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Lake Heights, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Lake Heights had around 12 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years up to FY-26. This totals an estimated 60 homes. As of FY-26, there have been 5 approvals recorded. Despite population decline during this period, development activity has been adequate relative to population changes.

The average construction value for new properties is $385,000. There were also $1.2 million in commercial approvals in FY-26. Compared to Rest of NSW, Lake Heights shows significantly reduced construction activity, with 53.0% below the regional average per person. This limited supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established properties. Nationally, new building activity is also lower than the national average, suggesting market maturity and possible development constraints. In Lake Heights, new building activity consists of 50.0% standalone homes and 50.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from existing housing patterns (83.0% houses) indicates diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs.

Lake Heights has a low density population, with around 340 people per approval. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 434 residents by 2041. Construction activity is maintaining pace with projected growth, but buyers may face growing competition as the population increases.

Lake Heights has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Lake Heights Public Preschool, Warrawong Community Health Centre, King Street Warrawong Masterplan, and Berkeley Square (Berkeley Shopping Centre Upgrade). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lake Heights face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Heights has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 14.7%, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, 1,578 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 10.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Lake Heights was somewhat below standard at 54.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries for employment among residents were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction showed strong specialization with an employment share of 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Limited local employment opportunities were indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, Lake Heights' labour force decreased by 0.4%, alongside an employment decline of 0.5%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced an employment decline of 0.5% and a labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Heights' employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Lake Heights had a median taxpayer income of $51,241 and an average income of $61,278. These figures are below the national averages of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively in Rest of NSW. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $55,781 (median) and $66,707 (average), based on an 8.86% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, Lake Heights' household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 14th and 24th percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 30.8% of residents (1,296 individuals) earn within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, similar to regional levels at 29.9%. Housing affordability is severe, with only 80.7% of income remaining, ranking at the 21st percentile nationally.

Lake Heights is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Lake Heights' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.7% houses and 17.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Heights was at 38.3%, similar to Non-Metro NSW, with the rest being mortgaged (31.8%) or rented (29.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $400, higher than Non-Metro NSW's figure of $365. Nationally, Lake Heights' mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were also higher at $400 compared to the national figure of $375.

Lake Heights has a typical household mix, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 72.2% of all households, including 31.1% couples with children, 25.5% couples without children, and 13.8% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.8%, with lone person households at 24.3% and group households comprising 3.6%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the average in the Rest of NSW.

Lake Heights faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 15.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 10.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.3%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 38.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (28.4%). Educational participation is high, with 28.6% currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (10.5%), secondary (7.3%), and tertiary (3.5%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.6% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.5% in primary education, 7.3% in secondary education, and 3.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lake Heights has 37 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 19 different routes that together facilitate 746 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 117 meters from the nearest stop.

On a daily basis, there are an average of 106 trips across all routes, which equates to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Heights is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Heights faces significant health challenges, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51%, or around 2,155 people, have private health cover. The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 8.6% and 8.4% of residents respectively. About 67.0% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in the rest of NSW. Around 18.2%, or 766 people, are aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, broadly in line with the general population's health profile.

Lake Heights was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets in Australia, upon assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Heights, surveyed in June 2021, had a higher cultural diversity compared to most local markets. Overseas-born residents comprised 30.5%, while those speaking languages other than English at home were 32.6%. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 58.1% of the population.

Islam, however, was significantly overrepresented at 9.6%, compared to the Rest of NSW average of 3.3%. Regarding ancestry, Australian-born parents made up 19.9%, lower than the regional average of 26.3%. English-born parents comprised 17.0%, also lower than the regional average of 26.1%. The 'Other' category was substantially higher at 16.9% compared to the regional average of 7.8%. Notable differences were seen in Macedonian (6.2% vs 3.8%), Spanish (1.5% vs 0.9%), and Hungarian (0.7% vs 0.3%) ethnic groups.

Lake Heights's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Lake Heights is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 25-34 age group constitutes 15.6% of Lake Heights' population, compared to the Rest of NSW figure, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 8.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has increased from 14.5% to 15.6%, and the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.6% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Lake Heights, with the 25-34 age group expected to grow by 29% (188 people), reaching 845 from 656. Conversely, the 65-74 and 15-24 cohorts are projected to experience population declines.