Lake Illawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Illawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of May 2026, the population of Lake Illawarra is estimated at around 3,412, reflecting an increase of 124 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 3.8% increase from the previous population count of 3,288 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,408 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 75 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 2,043 persons per square kilometer, which is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lake Illawarra's 3.8% growth since census positions it within 1.1 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary population growth for the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections indicate a decline in overall population for Lake Illawarra over the period from 2022 to 2041, with an expected reduction of 21 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow during this time, notably the 25 to 34 age group which is projected to increase by 83 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Lake Illawarra recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, derived from statistical area data, shows Lake Illawarra has approximately 24 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years (FY-21 to FY-25), around 123 homes were approved, with an additional 26 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 0.7 new residents arrive per new home each year over these five years, indicating that supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while allowing for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction value of new properties is $386,000. This financial year (FY-26), $835,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Lake Illawarra has 16.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 85th percentile nationally, with building activity accelerating in recent years. Recent construction comprises 23.0% detached houses and 77.0% medium and high-density housing, shifting from the area's existing housing composition of 50.0% houses. This indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles requiring more diverse, affordable housing options.

Lake Illawarra has around 107 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low density area. With population expected to remain stable or decline, reduced pressure on housing is anticipated, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Lake Illawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The impact of local infrastructure changes on an area's performance is significant. One major project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially influencing this region. Notable projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program, New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, and M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto. The following list details those projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lake Illawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Illawarra has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area. The unemployment rate was 13.9% as of December 2025.

There was an estimated employment growth of 2.0% over the past year, based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of December 2025, 1,358 residents were employed while the unemployment rate was 10.0% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Lake Illawarra lagged behind Regional NSW at 54.3%, compared to 60.5%. According to Census responses, 17.8% of residents worked from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Lake Illawarra showed strong specialization in construction with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented at only 0.3% of the workforce compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appeared to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 2.0% while labour force increased by 1.3%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 1.2%, labour force contract by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can provide further insight into potential future demand within Lake Illawarra. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Lake Illawarra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates that Lake Illawarra suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $50,077 and an average income of $61,416. Both figures are lower than national averages. Comparatively, Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated current incomes for Lake Illawarra would be approximately $55,245 (median) and $67,754 (average) as of March 2026. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Lake Illawarra all fall between the 5th and 12th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominates with 27.3% of residents (931 people), unlike surrounding regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lake Illawarra, with only 76.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Lake Illawarra displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lake Illawarra's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 50.2% houses and 49.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This differed from Regional NSW's structure of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Illawarra was at 28.0%, with the rest being mortgaged (21.7%) or rented (50.3%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lake Illawarra was $1,733, similar to Regional NSW's average. Median weekly rent in Lake Illawarra was $328, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lake Illawarra's median monthly mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lake Illawarra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 23.6% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.6%, with lone person households at 38.5% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lake Illawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 32.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Lake Illawarra shows that there are currently 39 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 29 individual routes providing service. Together, these routes facilitate 740 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transportation is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 97 meters away from their nearest transport stop. As Lake Illawarra is primarily residential, most residents commute outward to other areas for work or leisure. The car remains the dominant mode of transport, used by 95% of residents.

On average, there are 1.1 vehicles per dwelling in the area, which is lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 17.8% of residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 105 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Illawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Illawarra faces significant health challenges, as assessed by AreaSearch through mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (around 1,748 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.7% and 11.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.3% of residents report being free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 22.7% of residents aged 65 and over (774 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lake Illawarra records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Illawarra's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 86.9% being citizens, 80.1% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 53.6%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestral groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (7.1%).

Notably, Spanish (1.6%) and Macedonian (1.1%) populations exceed regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, while Serbian stands at 0.7% compared to the regional average of 0.2%.

Lake Illawarra hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lake Illawarra's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are particularly prominent at 14.1%, while the 5-14 group is smaller at 9.7% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 13.1% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 16.1% to 14.6%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.6% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Lake Illawarra, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 age cohort at 15%, adding 72 residents to reach 554. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 5-14 and 65-74 cohorts.