Lake Illawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Illawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of February 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Lake Illawarra is around 3,414, reflecting a 126 person increase from the 2021 Census figure of 3,288. This growth represents a 3.8% change since the census. The current resident population estimate of 3,399 by AreaSearch, following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 74 validated new addresses since the Census date, indicates a population density ratio of 2,044 persons per square kilometer. This is higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lake Illawarra's 3.8% growth positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%), showing competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% to overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilizes NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decline by 16 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, projected to increase by 89 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lake Illawarra according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Lake Illawarra recorded approximately 24 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 123 homes were approved, with a further 19 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline, new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice for buyers.

New properties are constructed at an average expected cost of $386,000. This financial year, Lake Illawarra recorded $835,000 in commercial development approvals, indicating its residential nature. Compared to the rest of NSW, Lake Illawarra has 18.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 86th percentile nationally, with accelerated building activity in recent years. Recent construction comprises 23.0% detached houses and 77.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 50.0% houses) suggests decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles.

Lake Illawarra has around 105 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low-density area. With population expected to remain stable or decline, there may be reduced pressure on housing in the future, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Lake Illawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region: Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program, New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto are key projects.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Lake Illawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Illawarra's workforce comprises both white and blue-collar jobs, with essential services well-represented. As of December 2025, the unemployment rate is 14.0%. Over the past year, there has been an estimated employment growth of 1.5%.

The unemployment rate in Lake Illawarra is 10.1% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags at 53.1%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Moderately, 17.8% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.3% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by the working population vs resident population count. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 1.5%, while labour force rose by 0.8%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.6 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw a 1.2% drop in employment, a 0.8% contraction in labour force, and a 0.4% increase in unemployment over the same period. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Illawarra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Lake Illawarra's median income among taxpayers is $50,077, with an average of $61,416. This is lower than national averages. Regional NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $54,514 (median) and $66,857 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023. Census 2021 income data shows Lake Illawarra's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 5th and 12th percentiles nationally. The $800 - 1,499 income bracket dominates in Lake Illawarra with 27.3% of residents (932 people), differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 76.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Lake Illawarra displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Lake Illawarra, as per the latest Census, 50.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 49.8% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This is in contrast to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Illawarra stood at 28.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.7% and rented ones at 50.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, mirroring Regional NSW's average. Meanwhile, the median weekly rent was $328, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Lake Illawarra's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were significantly below the national figure of $375.

Lake Illawarra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 23.6% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 41.6%, with lone person households at 38.5% and group households at 3.2%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Lake Illawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are held by 42.2% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 32.5%. Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 9.2% in primary, 6.8% in secondary, and 2.6% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 39 active transport stops operating within Lake Illawarra, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are served by 29 individual routes, collectively providing 740 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 97 meters from the nearest transport stop. Most residents commute outward due to the area's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 95%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, some 17.8% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 105 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Illawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Illawarra faces significant health challenges, as identified by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups, with private health cover at approximately 51% of the total population (around 1,749 people). The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.7% and 11.3% of residents respectively. Conversely, 59.3% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to higher chronic condition rates. The area has 22.4% of residents aged 65 and over (764 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings for the overall population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lake Illawarra records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Illawarra's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 86.9% being citizens, 80.1% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 53.6%. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (7.1%). Notably, Spanish (1.6%) and Macedonian (1.1%) are overrepresented compared to the regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Serbian representation is also higher at 0.7%.

Lake Illawarra hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lake Illawarra's median age in 2021 was 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's median age of 38. The age profile showed that the 25-34 year-olds were particularly prominent at 14.3%, while the 5-14 group was smaller at 9.4% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 13.1% to 14.3% of the population. Meanwhile, the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.6% to 9.9%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 16.1% to 14.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Lake Illawarra. The 25-34 age cohort is projected to grow by 14%, adding 69 residents to reach 558. Conversely, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 5-14 cohorts.