Lake Illawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Illawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Feb 2026, Lake Illawarra's population is estimated at around 3,414, reflecting an increase of 126 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,288. This change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 3,399 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 74 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 2,044 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lake Illawarra's population growth rate of 3.8% since census positions it within 2.1 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (5.9%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, Lake Illawarra's population is expected to decline by 16 persons by 2041, with growth anticipated in specific age cohorts led by the 25 to 34 age group projected to increase by 89 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lake Illawarra according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, derived from statistical area data, indicates Lake Illawarra has averaged around 24 residential properties approved annually. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 124 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a decrease in population during this period, new supply appears to have kept pace with demand, providing buyers with good choices.

The average expected construction cost value of new properties is $386,000. This year, Lake Illawarra has recorded $835,000 in commercial development approvals, reflecting its residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lake Illawarra experiences 17.0% less building activity per person. Nationally, it ranks among the 86th percentile of areas assessed but has shown an acceleration in building activity recently. Recent construction comprises 23.0% detached houses and 77.0% medium to high-density housing, indicating a shift from the area's current housing composition, which is 50.0% houses.

This change may reflect decreasing availability of developable sites and evolving lifestyles that require more diverse and affordable housing options. Lake Illawarra has around 103 people per dwelling approval, suggesting it is a low-density area. With population expected to remain stable or decline, the area may experience reduced pressure on housing in the future, potentially presenting opportunities for buyers.

Lake Illawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program (2021-2023), New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services (scheduled for 2025), and M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto (commencing in late 2024).

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Employment conditions in Lake Illawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Illawarra has a diverse workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs, particularly in essential services. The unemployment rate was 13.9% as of September 2025. Over the past year, employment grew by an estimated 0.8%.

Compared to Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.8%, Lake Illawarra's rate is significantly higher at 10.1%. Workforce participation in Lake Illawarra is lower at 53.1% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. Approximately 17.8% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. The dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Lake Illawarra has a strong specialization in construction, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Lake Illawarra's workforce compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, while labour force increased by 0.5%, leading to a decrease in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw a fall in employment by 0.5% and an increase in unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project growth rates for Lake Illawarra's employment mix over five and ten-year periods. Applying these projections suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though these estimates are simple extrapolations and do not account for localised population projections.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Lake Illawarra's median income among taxpayers is $50,077, with an average of $61,416. This is lower than national averages. Rest of NSW's median was $52,390 and average $65,215 in the same period. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Lake Illawarra would be approximately $54,514 (median) and $66,857 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows Lake Illawarra's incomes fall between the 5th and 12th percentiles nationally. The $800 - 1,499 bracket dominates with 27.3% of residents (932 people), differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lake Illawarra, with only 76.5% of income remaining, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Lake Illawarra displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Lake Illawarra, as evaluated at the Census conducted in 2016, comprised 50.2% houses and 49.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings in its dwelling structure during the same period. The level of home ownership within Lake Illawarra was 28.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.7% and rented dwellings at 50.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Lake Illawarra was $1,733, aligning with the Non-Metro NSW average for the year 2016. The median weekly rent figure in Lake Illawarra was $328, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330 during that period. Nationally, Lake Illawarra's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863 for 2016, while rents were substantially below the national figure of $375 for the same year.

Lake Illawarra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 23.6% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 41.6%, with lone person households at 38.5% and group households comprising 3.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Lake Illawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas account for 9.7% and certificates for 32.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Lake Illawarra has 39 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by 29 routes offering 740 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is excellent, with residents typically 97 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward. Cars dominate at 95%. Average vehicle ownership is 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 17.8% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 105 trips per day across all routes, equating to around 18 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Lake Illawarra is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

AreaSearch's assessment reveals significant health challenges across Lake Illawarra.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence indicate marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts due to a range of health conditions. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population, which amounts to around 1,749 people. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.7% of residents) and mental health issues (11.3%). In comparison, 59.3% of Lake Illawarra residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the Rest of NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 22.2% of residents aged 65 and over (757 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lake Illawarra records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Illawarra's population had cultural diversity roughly matching the wider region's average, with 86.9% being citizens, 80.1% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the main religion, comprising 53.6% of Lake Illawarra's population, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (29.1%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (7.1%).

Notably, Spanish (1.6%) was overrepresented in Lake Illawarra compared to the regional average of 0.3%. Similarly, Macedonian (1.1%) and Serbian (0.7%) were also overrepresented compared to their respective regional averages of 0.4% and 0.2%.

Lake Illawarra hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lake Illawarra's median age is 42 years, similar to the Rest of NSW average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that 25-34 year-olds are particularly prominent at 14.2%, while the 5-14 group is comparatively smaller at 9.2% compared to the Rest of NSW figure. Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of the population aged 25 to 34 has grown from 13.1% to 14.2%. Conversely, the percentage of those aged 45 to 54 has declined from 11.6% to 9.8%, and the percentage of those aged 55 to 64 has dropped from 16.1% to 14.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Lake Illawarra, with the 25-34 age group projected to show the strongest growth at 12%, adding 56 residents to reach 541. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 45-54 and 5-14 cohorts.