Lake Illawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Illawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of Nov 2025, Lake Illawarra's population is estimated at around 3,411 people. This reflects an increase of 123 individuals since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 3,288. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,406 following examination of the latest ERP data release by ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This equates to a density ratio of 2,042 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lake Illawarra's growth rate of 3.7% since census is within 1.4 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.1%), indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods in the suburb.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, demographic trends indicate a decline in overall population over this period. According to AreaSearch's methodology, Lake Illawarra's population is expected to reduce by 19 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, with the 25 to 34 age group projected to increase by 93 people.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Lake Illawarra recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Lake Illawarra recorded around 25 residential properties granted approval per year. Approximately 126 homes were approved over the past 5 financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, with an additional 16 approved so far in FY-26. Despite a decrease in population during this period, new supply has likely kept pace with demand, offering buyers good choice.

The average construction value of new properties is $386,000, below regional levels, indicating more accessible housing choices for buyers. This financial year, Lake Illawarra has registered $1.9 million in commercial approvals, suggesting a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lake Illawarra records 15.0% less building activity per person but places among the 90th percentile nationally, with building activity accelerating in recent years. Recent construction comprises 23.0% detached houses and 77.0% medium and high-density housing, creating more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. This shift from the area's existing housing composition (currently 50.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

Lake Illawarra has around 79 people per dwelling approval, characteristic of a low-density area. With population expected to remain stable or decline, the area should see reduced pressure on housing, potentially creating opportunities for buyers in the future.

Lake Illawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. A single project has been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program from 2021 to 2023, New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services commencing in late 2024, and M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto scheduled for completion by mid-2025. The following list details those projects likely to have the most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lake Illawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Illawarra has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area.

The unemployment rate was 12.7% as of June 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.5%. Lake Illawarra's unemployment rate is higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, with a difference of 9.0%. Workforce participation in Lake Illawarra lags behind Rest of NSW, at 48.1% compared to 56.4%.

Dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.3% of Lake Illawarra's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over the 12 months to June 2025, employment increased by 1.5%, while labour force increased by 1.1%, causing a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.1%, labour force expanded by 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Lake Illawarra. National employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Lake Illawarra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows Lake Illawarra's median income among taxpayers is $50,077 and the average is $61,416. This is lower than national averages. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Lake Illawarra would be approximately $56,392 (median) and $69,161 (average) by September 2025. Census 2021 income data indicates that household, family and personal incomes in Lake Illawarra fall between the 5th and 12th percentiles nationally. The income bracket of $800 - 1,499 dominates with 27.3% of residents (931 people), differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lake Illawarra, with only 76.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Lake Illawarra displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Dwelling structure in Lake Illawarra, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 50.2% houses and 49.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Illawarra was at 28.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.7% and rented dwellings at 50.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure was $328, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Lake Illawarra's mortgage repayments were lower at $1,733 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lake Illawarra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 58.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 23.6% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 41.6%, composed of lone person households at 38.5% and group households at 3.2%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Lake Illawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 12.2%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.7%) and certificates (32.5%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education. Educational provision includes Lake Illawarra South Public School and Lake Illawarra High School, collectively serving 725 students as of the latest data. The area demonstrates varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 931). Educational provision follows conventional lines, split between one primary and one secondary institution. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (21.2 places per 100 residents vs 14.2 regionally), indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Analysis of public transport in Lake Illawarra shows 36 active transport stops operating, all of which are bus stops. These stops are serviced by 29 individual routes, providing a total of 732 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 97 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 104 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Illawarra is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Illawarra faces notable health challenges, as indicated by health data.

Both younger and older age groups have high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Private health cover is held by approximately 51% of Lake Illawarra's total population (~1,747 people), which is slightly lower than the average SA2 area rate. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.7% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 11.3%). A higher proportion of residents, 59.3%, report being completely free from medical ailments compared to Rest of NSW's 65.2%. Lake Illawarra has a larger senior population (aged 65 and over), with 22.0% of residents falling into this category (~750 people), compared to the state average of 20.9%. The health outcomes among seniors in Lake Illawarra are broadly aligned with those of the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lake Illawarra records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Illawarra's population in cultural diversity terms is roughly similar to the wider region, with 86.9% of its residents being citizens, 80.1% born in Australia, and 89.8% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lake Illawarra, comprising 53.6% of the population, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (7.1%).

Notably, Spanish (1.6%) is overrepresented in Lake Illawarra compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Similarly, Macedonian (1.1%) and Serbian (0.7%) groups are also more prevalent than their respective regional averages of 1.9% and 0.5%.

Lake Illawarra hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Lake Illawarra's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 14.1%, while the 5-14 group is smaller at 9.3% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group grew from 13.1% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 45-54 cohort declined from 11.6% to 10.2%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 16.1% to 14.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate significant demographic changes for Lake Illawarra. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow by 14%, adding 65 residents to reach 546. Meanwhile, declines are projected for the 45-54 and 5-14 cohorts.