Lake Illawarra

An assessment of population growth drivers in Lake Illawarra reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Lake Illawarra's population is estimated at around 3,413 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 125 people (3.8%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,288 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,399, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 73 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,043 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Lake Illawarra's 3.8% growth since census positions it within 1.9 percentage points of the non-metro area (5.7%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Moving forward with demographic trends, Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the Lake Illawarra statistical area's (Lv2) population expected to reduce by 19 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 93 people.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Lake Illawarra according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Lake Illawarra recorded approximately 24 residential properties granted approval per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 124 homes were approved, with an additional 17 approved in FY-26 so far. Despite population decline during this period, new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

The average construction value of new properties is $386,000. This financial year, Lake Illawarra recorded $835,000 in commercial development approvals, reflecting its residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Lake Illawarra has 16.0% less building activity per person but ranks among the 86th percentile nationally. Recent construction consists of 23.0% detached houses and 77.0% medium and high-density housing, indicating a shift from the area's existing housing composition of 50.0% houses. With around 103 people per dwelling approval, Lake Illawarra shows characteristics of a low density area.

Given expected population stability or decline, reduced pressure on housing is anticipated, potentially creating opportunities for buyers.

Lake Illawarra has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified one major project likely affecting this region. Key projects include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program, New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto. The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment conditions in Lake Illawarra face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Lake Illawarra has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, notable in essential services. The unemployment rate was 14.0% as of September 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year.

Compared to Rest of NSW's unemployment rate of 3.8%, Lake Illawarra's is 10.2% higher, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lags at 48.1%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong, with an employment share 1.4 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing, however, is under-represented at 0.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Limited local employment opportunities are suggested by Census data. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.8%, while labour force rose by 0.6%, reducing unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5% and unemployment rose by 0.4%. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Lake Illawarra's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by similar rates over the same periods.

Income figures position the area below 75% of locations analysed nationally by AreaSearch

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, Lake Illawarra's median income among taxpayers is $50,077. The average income in the suburb is $61,416. Nationally, these figures are lower than average. In comparison, Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for Lake Illawarra as of September 2025 would be approximately $54,514 (median) and $66,857 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, household, family, and personal incomes in Lake Illawarra fall between the 5th and 12th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that 27.3% of residents (931 people) earn within the $800 - $1,499 bracket, differing from surrounding regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket dominates at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Lake Illawarra, with only 76.5% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 4th percentile nationally.

Lake Illawarra displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Lake Illawarra's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 50.2% houses and 49.8% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Lake Illawarra was at 28.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 21.7% and rented ones at 50.3%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,733, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Lake Illawarra was recorded at $328, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Lake Illawarra's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Lake Illawarra features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 58.4% of all households, including 18.4% couples with children, 23.6% couples without children, and 15.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 41.6%, with lone person households at 38.5% and group households comprising 3.2%. The median household size is 2.1 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Lake Illawarra faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.2%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 8.1%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.2% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 9.7% and certificates at 32.5%. Educational participation is high, with 25.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.2% in primary education, 6.8% in secondary education, and 2.6% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Lake Illawarra shows that there are currently 39 active transport stops operating. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 29 individual routes providing service to the area. The combined weekly passenger trips across these routes amount to 740.

The accessibility of transport in Lake Illawarra is rated as excellent, with residents located an average of 97 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 105 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 18 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Lake Illawarra is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Lake Illawarra faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data. Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 51% (~1748 people) of Lake Illawarra's total population has private health cover, compared to 53.8% across the rest of NSW. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 11.7% of residents) and mental health issues (11.3%). Conversely, 59.3% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in the rest of NSW. Lake Illawarra has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (22.0%, or 750 people), compared to the rest of NSW at 20.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Lake Illawarra records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Lake Illawarra's population, in terms of cultural diversity, is largely similar to the broader regional average. 86.9% are Australian citizens, 80.1% were born in Australia, and 89.8% primarily speak English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Lake Illawarra, with 53.6% of residents identifying as such, compared to 57.3% across the Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups are English (29.1%), Australian (27.2%), and Scottish (7.1%). Notably, Spanish (1.6%) and Macedonian (1.1%) ethnicities have higher representation in Lake Illawarra compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Similarly, Serbian ethnicity is slightly more prevalent at 0.7%.

Lake Illawarra hosts a notably older demographic compared to the national average

Lake Illawarra's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that 14.1% of the population is aged between 25 and 34, while only 9.3% is aged between 5 and 14, compared to Rest of NSW's figures. Between 2021 and the present day, the proportion of the population aged 25 to 34 has increased from 13.1% to 14.1%. Conversely, the proportion of those aged 45 to 54 has decreased from 11.6% to 10.2%, and the proportion of those aged 55 to 64 has dropped from 16.1% to 14.8%. Population forecasts for Lake Illawarra indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 25 to 34 age group is projected to grow by 13%, adding 64 residents to reach a total of 546. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 5 to 14 age groups.