Oak Flats

Population growth drivers in Oak Flats are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, the estimated population of the Oak Flats statistical area (Lv2) is around 7,078 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 238 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,840 people in the Oak Flats (SA2). The change was inferred from the resident population of 7,028 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS on June 2024 and an additional 199 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,877 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Oak Flats (SA2)'s growth rate of 3.5% since census positions it within 2.2 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.7%, demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration, contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected for the Oak Flats (SA2), with the area expected to grow by 1,595 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 22.1% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Oak Flats when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Oak Flats recorded approximately 68 residential properties granted approval annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 344 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved in FY-26 to date. On average, 1 person moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years, indicating new supply met or exceeded demand.

The average construction cost of new homes was $374,000. This financial year has seen $21.0 million in commercial development approvals. Compared to Rest of NSW, Oak Flats had 13.0% more development per person over the past five years, balancing buyer choice and property value support. Recent periods showed moderated development activity. New building activity comprised 17.0% detached houses and 83.0% townhouses or apartments, reflecting reduced development site availability and shifting lifestyle demands.

Oak Flats had approximately 134 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. By 2041, AreaSearch estimates the location will gain 1,565 residents. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Oak Flats has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified six projects that could affect this region. Notable ones are Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program at Jilba Park and Collins Reserve, The Links Hotel, Regional Multi-Sports, Aquatics & Leisure Facility, and Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Oak Flats faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Oak Flats has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 6.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6%.

As of September 2025, 3,368 residents were employed, while the unemployment rate was 2.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Employment participation was on par with Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Key employment sectors included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction had a particularly high share of employment at 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, and the labour force increased by 0.3%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, the labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data as of 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia projected national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oak Flats's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Oak Flats had an income level slightly above the national average in financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $54,387 and the average income stood at $69,531. For comparison, Rest of NSW's figures were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes for September 2025 would be approximately $59,206 (median) and $75,691 (average). According to the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Oak Flats ranked modestly, between the 28th and 35th percentiles. Income analysis showed that the largest segment comprised 32.4% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,293 residents), consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 29.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Oak Flats, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.0% houses and 18.0% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Oak Flats was 42.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.9% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Oak Flats was $440, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Oak Flats' median monthly mortgage repayment is higher at $1,950 versus Australia's average of $1,863, while the median weekly rent is substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.2% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 33.9%. Educational participation is high, with 26.4% currently enrolled in formal education: 9.6% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 64 active transport stops in Oak Flats, consisting of a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 47 individual routes, offering a total of 3,009 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 167 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 429 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Oak Flats faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence rates for common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~3,851 people) of Oak Flats' total population has private health cover, a figure that is relatively high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis (affecting 10.7% of residents) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 62.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across the Rest of NSW. Oak Flats has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over (22.3%, or 1,578 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 20.9%. The health outcomes among seniors in Oak Flats present some challenges, generally aligned with the overall population's health profile.

Oak Flats ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oak Flats was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.1% of its population born in Australia. 89.9% were citizens, and 91.6% spoke English only at home. The main religion in Oak Flats was Christianity, comprising 52.4% of the population, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW.

In terms of ancestry, the top three represented groups in Oak Flats were English (29.3%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (6.6%). Notably, Spanish was overrepresented at 1.4%, Hungarian at 0.5%, and Welsh at 0.8%, compared to regional percentages of 1.0%, 0.3%, and 0.7% respectively.

Oak Flats's median age exceeds the national pattern

Oak Flats's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 and older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 13.5%, while the 5-14 group is smaller at 10.2% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 13.5%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.2%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 14.6% to 13.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Oak Flats, with the 25-34 cohort projected to grow by 43%, adding 408 residents to reach 1,364. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is projected to grow by a modest 1% (adding 10 people).