Oak Flats

Population growth drivers in Oak Flats are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

The estimated population of Oak Flats is around 7,138 as of Feb 2026. This figure reflects an increase of 298 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,840. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,028 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024, and an additional 242 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,893 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Oak Flats's growth rate of 4.4% since the census is within 1.5 percentage points of Rest of NSW's 5.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for national non-metropolitan areas, with Oak Flats expected to grow by 1,530 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 19.9% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Oak Flats when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Oak Flats has recorded around 69 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), an estimated 349 homes were approved, with a further 21 approved so far in FY-26. This new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, offering ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average number of people moving to the area per dwelling built over this period was 1. New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $374,000. In FY-26, Oak Flats has recorded $21.0 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development relative to the Rest of NSW. Over the past 5 years, Oak Flats has had slightly more development (14.0% above regional average per person). However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

New building activity shows 18.0% detached houses and 82.0% townhouses or apartments. This skew toward compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 82.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. The location has approximately 132 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. Population forecasts indicate Oak Flats will gain 1,420 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oak Flats has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified seven projects that may affect the region. Notable projects include the Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), the Regional Multi-Sports, Aquatics & Leisure Facility, The Links Hotel, and Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Oak Flats faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Oak Flats has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, prominent essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 6.6% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.8%. As of December 2025, 3,388 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.4%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 3.9%.

Workforce participation was similar to Regional NSW at 61.3%. According to Census data, 19.8% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade, with a strong specialization in construction (1.4 times the regional level) but a lower share in agriculture, forestry & fishing (0.5%). Many residents commute elsewhere for work.

In the 12 months prior, employment increased by 0.8%, labour force by 0.4%, reducing unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment contracted by 1.2% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest Oak Flats' employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, based on industry-specific projections applied to the local employment mix.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Oak Flats had an income level slightly above the national average in its latest data from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $54,387, while the average income stood at $69,531. This compares to figures for Regional NSW of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates suggest the median income would be approximately $59,206 and the average income around $75,691 by September 2025. According to figures from the 2021 Census, household, family, and personal incomes in Oak Flats ranked modestly, between the 28th and 35th percentiles. Income analysis showed that the largest segment comprised 32.4% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,312 residents), which was consistent with broader trends across the metropolitan region showing 29.9% in the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

The dwelling structure in Oak Flats, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Oak Flats was higher than that of Regional NSW at 42.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (32.9%) or rented (24.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Oak Flats was $1,950, above the Regional NSW average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Oak Flats was recorded at $440, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Oak Flats's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 28.5% that are couples with children, 28.6% that are couples without children, and 15.0% that are single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.8% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (33.9%). Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.6% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oak Flats has 64 active public transport stops, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 47 individual routes, collectively offering 3,009 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents' homes to the nearest transport stop is 167 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode of transport at 93%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Oak Flats. According to the 2021 Census, 19.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 429 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Oak Flats faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age cohorts.

Private health cover is relatively high at approximately 54% of the total population (~3,884 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (9.5%). Conversely, 62.8% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly lower than the Regional NSW average of 63.3%. Working-age individuals face notable health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. The area has a significant senior population, with 22.7% aged 65 and over (1,620 people). While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, they are broadly in line with national rankings for the general population.

Oak Flats ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oak Flats, surveyed in the year 2016, had a population with 82.1% born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 52.4% of Oak Flats' population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (29.3%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (6.6%).

Notably, Spanish (1.4%) and Hungarian (0.5%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Oak Flats relative to Regional NSW levels of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Welsh ethnicity also showed a higher representation at 0.8%.

Oak Flats's median age exceeds the national pattern

Oak Flats's median age is 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 13.5%, while the 5-14 group is smaller at 10.4% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and now, the 0-4 age group has grown from 5.1% to 6.3%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.4%, and the 55-64 group has dropped from 14.6% to 13.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Oak Flats, with the 25-34 cohort projected to grow by 34%, adding 323 residents to reach 1,287. Meanwhile, the 55-64 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 1% (6 people).