Oak Flats

Population growth drivers in Oak Flats are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validations, the estimated population of Oak Flats as of Feb 2026 is around 7,138. This reflects a growth of 298 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,840. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 7,028 following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and an additional 242 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,893 persons per square kilometer, above national averages assessed by AreaSearch. Oak Flats's growth rate of 4.4% since census is within 1.5 percentage points of Rest of NSW's 5.9%, indicating competitive growth fundamentals. Overseas migration contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics anticipate an above median growth for non-metropolitan areas, with Oak Flats projected to grow by 1,596 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 21.1% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Oak Flats when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Oak Flats shows approximately 68 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 344 homes were approved, with an additional 14 approved so far in FY-26. On average, one person has moved to the area for each dwelling built over these five years, indicating that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand and providing ample buyer choice while supporting population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost value of new homes being built is $374,000. This financial year, Oak Flats has recorded $21.0 million in commercial development approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development compared to the Rest of NSW. Over the past five years, Oak Flats has seen slightly more development than the regional average per person, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods. In terms of new building activity, 17.0% are detached houses while 83.0% are townhouses or apartments.

This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways and attracts downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements compared to the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses at 82.0%. Oak Flats has approximately 134 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Oak Flats is forecasted to gain 1,507 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oak Flats has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects that may affect the area. Notable projects include the Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), Regional Multi-Sports, Aquatics & Leisure Facility, The Links Hotel, and Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension. Below is a list of those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Oak Flats faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Oak Flats has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with prominent essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 6.6% in the past year, showing an estimated employment growth of 0.5%. As of September 2025, 3,369 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 6.6%, which is 2.8% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Oak Flats is at the same level as Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 19.8% of residents work from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction employment share is 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5%, lower than Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. In the 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.5% and labour force increased by 0.2%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, issued in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oak Flats's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Oak Flats had a median taxpayer income of $54,387 and an average income of $69,531 in the financial year 2023, according to ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch. This compares with figures for Rest of NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $59,206 (median) and $75,691 (average). Income figures from the 2021 Census show Oak Flats ranks modestly in household, family, and personal income, between the 28th and 35th percentiles. The largest income segment in Oak Flats comprises 32.4% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (2,312 residents), similar to the broader metropolitan region's 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Oak Flats' dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other'). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oak Flats was 42.6%, with the rest being mortgaged (32.9%) or rented (24.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent in Oak Flats was recorded at $440, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Oak Flats' mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 74.2% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has lower university qualification rates at 13.9%, significantly below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.8% and graduate diplomas at 1.4%. Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 33.9%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.6% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oak Flats has 64 active public transport stops, consisting of both train and bus services. These stops are served by 47 different routes, offering a total of 3009 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily, with car being the predominant mode of transportation at 93%. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Oak Flats. According to the 2021 Census, 19.8% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 429 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Oak Flats faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notably high across both younger and older age groups.

Approximately 54% of Oak Flats' total population (~3,884 people) has private health cover, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 51.9%. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (9.5%), with 62.8% of residents reporting no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in the Rest of NSW. Working-age residents face substantial health challenges due to elevated chronic condition rates. As of 2021, 22.5% of Oak Flats' population is aged 65 and over (1,606 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, ranking broadly in line with the general population nationally.

Oak Flats ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oak Flats was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 82.1% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Oak Flats, comprising 52.4% of people, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (29.3%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (6.6%).

Notable divergences exist in the representation of certain ethnic groups: Spanish is overrepresented at 1.4%, Hungarian at 0.5%, and Welsh at 0.8%.

Oak Flats's median age exceeds the national pattern

Oak Flats's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 25-34 are prominent at 14.1%, while the 5-14 group is smaller at 10.1% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 25-34 age group has grown from 12.5% to 14.1%. Conversely, the 5-14 cohort has declined from 12.2% to 10.1%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.1%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Oak Flats, with the strongest growth projected for the 25-34 age cohort at 35%, adding 355 residents to reach 1,362. The 55-64 cohort is expected to grow by a modest 2% (17 people).