Oak Flats

Population growth drivers in Oak Flats are slightly above average based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the suburb of Oak Flats' population is estimated at around 7,057 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 217 people (3.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,840 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 6,988, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 240 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,871 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Oak Flats' 3.2% growth since census positions it within 1.7 percentage points of the Rest of NSW (4.9%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the suburb expected to grow by 1,300 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 17.4% over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Oak Flats when compared nationally

Oak Flats has recorded approximately 69 residential properties granted approval annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, around 349 homes were approved, with an additional 26 approved in FY-26. On average, about 0.9 people moved to the area per dwelling built over these five years.

This suggests that new supply is meeting or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts. The average construction cost value of new homes is $374,000. In FY-26, Oak Flats has recorded approximately $21.0 million in commercial development approvals, indicating moderate levels of commercial development compared to the rest of NSW. Relative to regional averages over the past five years, Oak Flats has seen slightly more development, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values. However, development activity has moderated in recent periods.

New building activity shows 18.0% detached houses and 82.0% townhouses or apartments. This shift towards compact living offers affordable entry pathways, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. This represents a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (82.0%). The location has approximately 131 people per dwelling approval, indicating a low density market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Oak Flats is projected to gain 1,231 residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Oak Flats has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified seven projects expected to influence the region. Notable initiatives include Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program at Jilba Park and Collins Reserve, Regional Multi-Sports, Aquatics and Leisure Facility, The Links Hotel development, and Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Oak Flats faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Oak Flats has a balanced workforce encompassing white and blue collar jobs. Key sectors include essential services, with an unemployment rate of 6.7% as of December 2025. This is 2.8% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation matches Regional NSW at 60.5%. According to Census data, 19.8% of residents work from home, potentially impacted by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong, employing 1.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.5%, below Regional NSW's 5.3%.

Many residents commute elsewhere for work. Over a 12-month period ending December 2025, Oak Flats' labour force decreased by 0.4% and employment remained stable at 0.0%, reducing the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment contracted by 1.2%, labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth varies between sectors. Applying these projections to Oak Flats' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ending June 2023 indicates that Oak Flats' median income is $54,387 and average income is $69,531. This compares to Regional NSW's median income of $52,390 and average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from July 2023 to March 2026, estimated incomes would be approximately $60,000 (median) and $76,707 (average). The 2021 Census shows Oak Flats' household, family, and personal incomes rank modestly, between the 28th and 35th percentiles. The earnings profile reveals that 32.4% of locals (2,286 people) earn between $1,500 - 2,999 per week, similar to metropolitan regions at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Oak Flats, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Oak Flats, as per the latest Census, consisted of 82.2% houses and 17.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Compared to Regional NSW, which had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Oak Flats was at 42.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 32.9% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Oak Flats was $440, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Oak Flats' median monthly mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 74.2% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational outcomes in Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 13.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.0% and certificates at 33.9%. Educational participation is high, with 26.4% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 9.6% in primary, 7.4% in secondary, and 3.2% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Oak Flats has 64 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 47 individual routes that collectively facilitate 3,009 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest stop. As predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward using cars as the primary mode (93%). Average vehicle ownership stands at 1.5 per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 19.8% of residents work from home, possibly due to COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 429 trips daily across all routes, equating to approximately 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health issues in Oak Flats, as per AreaSearch's analysis of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Notably, both younger and older age groups have high prevalence of common health conditions.

Private health cover is relatively high at approximately 54% (around 3,840 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.7% and 9.5% of residents respectively. Conversely, 62.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly lower than the 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age population faces substantial health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. Oak Flats has 22.9% (1,616 people) of residents aged 65 and over. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Oak Flats ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oak Flats' cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 82.1% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Oak Flats, comprising 52.4% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Oak Flats are English (29.3%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (6.6%).

Notably, Spanish is overrepresented at 1.4%, compared to 0.3% regionally, Hungarian at 0.5% vs 0.2%, and Welsh at 0.8% vs 0.5%.

Oak Flats's median age exceeds the national pattern

Oak Flats's median age is 42 years, comparable to Regional NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile indicates that those aged 25-34 are notably prominent at 12.8%, while the 45-54 age group is comparatively smaller at 10.3% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the 0-4 age group has increased from 5.1% to 6.4% of the population, while the 75-84 cohort has risen from 6.6% to 7.9%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 14.6% to 12.7%, and the 45-54 age group has dropped from 11.7% to 10.3%. Population forecasts for 2041 suggest significant demographic shifts in Oak Flats, with the 25-34 cohort projected to grow by 28%, adding 250 residents to reach a total of 1,154. Conversely, numbers in the 55-64 age range are expected to fall by 10%.