Oak Flats

Population growth drivers in Oak Flats are strong compared to national averages based on AreaSearch's ranking of recent, and medium to long-term trends

The population of Oak Flats, based on ABS updates and AreaSearch validation, is estimated at around 7,194 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 354 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 6,840. The change is inferred from the resident population of 7,151 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 199 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,908 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Oak Flats's growth rate of 5.2% since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (5.1%). Population growth was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 73.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and interstate migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above median population growth of national non-metropolitan areas is projected, with Oak Flats expected to grow by 1,622 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 20.5% over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Oak Flats when compared nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, shows Oak Flats recorded around 76 residential properties granted approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 383 homes were approved, with an additional 11 approved so far in FY-26. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built over these five years was 0.9 per year, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand, providing ample buyer choice and creating capacity for population growth beyond current forecasts.

The average construction cost value of new homes being built in Oak Flats is $374,000, which is under regional levels, offering more accessible housing choices for buyers. In FY-26, $16.7 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating steady commercial investment activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Oak Flats has slightly more development, with 26.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period from FY-21 to FY-25. This balance between buyer choice and support for current property values has been maintained despite a moderation in development activity in recent periods. The area's development activity is well above the national average, reflecting strong developer confidence. New development in Oak Flats consists of 17.0% detached dwellings and 83.0% medium and high-density housing.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This represents a notable shift from the area's existing housing stock, which is currently 82.0% houses, indicating decreasing availability of developable sites and reflecting changing lifestyles and the need for more diverse, affordable housing options. Oak Flats reflects a low-density area, with around 125 people per approval. Future projections, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate, show Oak Flats adding approximately 1,476 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Oak Flats has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. Six projects are identified by AreaSearch as potentially influencing this region. Notable projects include Playground Renewals & Upgrades Program (Jilba Park, Collins Reserve), The Links Hotel, Albion Park Quarry Extraction Area Stage 7 Extension, and Regional Multi-Sports, Aquatics & Leisure Facility. Below is a list detailing those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Oak Flats faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Oak Flats has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented, with an unemployment rate of 6.0% as of June 2025.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 1.1%. The area's unemployment rate is 2.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%, while workforce participation is on par with the region at 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction is particularly strong, employing 1.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.5% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 1.1%, labour force grew by 0.8%, leading to a fall in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1% and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Oak Flats' employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.3% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Oak Flats is higher than average nationally. The median income is $54,387 and the average income stands at $69,531. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Oak Flats would be approximately $61,245 (median) and $78,299 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Oak Flats rank modestly, between the 28th and 35th percentiles. The earnings profile shows that 32.4% of locals (2,330 people) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, reflecting patterns seen in the metropolitan region where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Oak Flats, with only 82.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 34th percentile.

Oak Flats is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Oak Flats, as per the latest Census evaluation, 82.2% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 17.7% consisting of semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwelling types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's figures of 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. The home ownership rate in Oak Flats was 42.6%, with mortgaged properties at 32.9% and rented ones at 24.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. The median weekly rent figure in Oak Flats was $440, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $375. Nationally, Oak Flats' mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially higher at $440 compared to the national figure of $375.

Oak Flats has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 74.2% of all households, including 28.5% couples with children, 28.6% couples without children, and 15.0% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 25.8%, with lone person households at 23.2% and group households comprising 2.8%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Oak Flats fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area has university qualification rates at 13.9%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 44.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (11.0%) and certificates (33.9%).

Educational participation is high at 26.4%, including 9.6% in primary education, 7.4% in secondary education, and 3.2% pursuing tertiary education. Oak Flats's 4 schools have a combined enrollment of 2,470 students, operating under typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 975) with balanced educational opportunities. Educational provision is split between 2 primary and 2 secondary institutions. The area functions as an education hub with 34.3 school places per 100 residents, significantly above the regional average of 14.2, attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is high compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transportation in Oak Flats indicates that there are currently 55 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 47 individual routes providing weekly passenger trips amounting to 2,805. The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 167 meters from their nearest transport stop.

On average, service frequency across all routes amounts to around 400 trips per day, which equates to roughly 51 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Oak Flats is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Oak Flats faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data.

Both younger and older age groups have notable prevalence rates for common health conditions. Approximately 54% (~3,914 people) of Oak Flats' total population has private health cover, which is quite high. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis (affecting 10.7% of residents) and mental health issues (impacting 9.5%). In contrast, 62.8% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across Rest of NSW. Oak Flats has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 22.3% (1,604 people), than the Rest of NSW's 20.9%. The health outcomes among seniors in Oak Flats present some challenges, generally aligning with the overall population's health profile.

Oak Flats ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Oak Flats was found to have below average cultural diversity, with 82.1% of its population born in Australia, 89.9% being citizens, and 91.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Oak Flats, comprising 52.4% of people, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are English (29.3%), Australian (28.9%), and Irish (6.6%).

Notably, Spanish (1.4%) is overrepresented in Oak Flats compared to the regional average of 1.0%, as are Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.3%) and Welsh (0.8% vs 0.7%).

Oak Flats hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Oak Flats's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 and older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that individuals aged 25-34 years make up a prominent group at 13.5%, while those aged 5-14 years constitute a smaller proportion at 10.2% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and the present, the percentage of the population aged 25-34 has increased from 12.5% to 13.5%. Conversely, the percentage of individuals aged 5-14 has decreased from 12.2% to 10.2%, and those aged 45-54 have declined from 11.7% to 10.4%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Oak Flats, with the strongest projected growth in the 25-34 age group, expected to grow by 41%, adding 401 residents to reach a total of 1,373. In contrast, numbers in the 55-64 age range are anticipated to decrease by 2%.