Horsley - Kembla Grange
Statistical Area - sa2

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Horsley-Kembla Grange's population, as of August 2025, is approximately 15,428, marking a 3,273 person increase from the 2021 Census figure of 12,155. This growth, representing a 26.9% rise, is based on ABS estimates and validated new addresses since June 2024. The population density stands at 348 persons per square kilometer. Horsley-Kembla Grange's growth rate exceeded that of non-metro areas (4.8%) and its SA3 area, demonstrating significant growth in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 78.1% to this growth. AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by the former, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

These projections indicate exceptional growth for Horsley-Kembla Grange between 2032 and 2041, with an expected expansion of 11,186 persons, reflecting a total increase of 63.8% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley-Kembla Grange averaged approximately 278 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, 1,393 homes were approved, with 66 more approved in FY-26 as of the present time. Each year, an average of 2.6 new residents was gained for each dwelling built during these five financial years.

The average construction cost value of new homes is around $430,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $35.3 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley-Kembla Grange exhibits 273.0% higher construction activity per person, offering more choices for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, providing a mix of medium-density options across various price brackets. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 94.0% houses) addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With approximately 55 people per approval, Horsley-Kembla Grange is developing.

Future projections estimate an addition of 9,844 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially facilitating growth beyond current forecasts.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley-Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with 7,640 residents employed as of June 2025. The unemployment rate is 2.6%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6% over the past year.

This rate is 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation stands at 70.2%, higher than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Finance & insurance has a particularly high representation with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, labour force by 0.8%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.1% and a labour force growth of 0.3%, with a larger unemployment increase of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley-Kembla Grange's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2022, Horsley - Kembla Grange had a median income among taxpayers of $52,826. The average income level was $65,357. Nationally, the median and average incomes were approximately $51,948 and $64,460 respectively. In Rest of NSW, these figures stood at $49,459 and $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates for Horsley - Kembla Grange would be approximately $59,487 (median) and $73,599 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank at the 83rd percentile with a weekly income of $2,286. In Horsley - Kembla Grange, 39.3% of individuals fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, which aligns with the surrounding region's 29.9%. Economic strength is indicated by 30.9% of households earning over $3,000 weekly, supporting high consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 81st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Horsley-Kembla Grange, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.9% houses and 6.1% other dwellings including semi-detached homes, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley-Kembla Grange stood at 26.6%, with mortgaged properties at 56.5% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,186, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $500 compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Horsley-Kembla Grange's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,186 against the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.3% of all households, including 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 12.1% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate in 2020 was 20.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees were most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials were prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.7%). Educational participation was high at 31.5%, comprising 11.9% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Dapto Public School served the local area with an enrollment of 775 students as of 2021, offering balanced educational opportunities typical of Australian schools (ICSEA: 1004). The school focused exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. Local school capacity was limited at 5.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.9, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Horsley-Kembla Grange shows that there are currently 94 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. There are 35 individual routes servicing these stops, collectively providing 1,235 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 180 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 176 trips per day across all routes, equating to about 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Horsley - Kembla Grange's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Horsley - Kembla Grange residents show positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions compared to the general population but higher than national averages for older cohorts at risk.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% (8,084 people), slightly above the average SA2 area's rate. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 8.8% and 8.7% of residents respectively. About 69.5% of residents claim to be free from medical ailments, higher than Rest of NSW's 63.9%. The area has 11.3% (1,746 people) aged 65 and over, lower than Rest of NSW's 19.0%. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention compared to the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley-Kembla Grange, surveyed in June 2016, had a cultural diversity profile roughly matching the wider region's average. Among its residents, 83.0% were born in Australia, 92.7% held citizenship, and 87.2% spoke English exclusively at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 58.8% of the population, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 58.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.6%), English (27.4%), and Scottish (6.7%). Notable deviations included Macedonian representation at 2.4%, Serbian at 0.8%, and Spanish at 0.8%, compared to regional averages of 3.8%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively.

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Horsley-Kembla Grange's median age in 2021 was 34 years, lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38 years. Compared to Rest of NSW average, locals aged 35-44 were notably over-represented at 16.2%, while those aged 65-74 were under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and the present, the age group of 25 to 34 has grown from 13.8% to 14.8% of the population. Conversely, the age group of 55 to 64 declined from 10.6% to 9.1%, and the age group of 5 to 14 dropped from 16.1% to 15.1%. Demographic modeling suggests Horsley-Kembla Grange's age profile will significantly evolve by 2041, with the 35-44 age cohort projected to grow significantly, expanding by 1,732 people (69%) from 2,497 to 4,230.