Horsley - Kembla Grange

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Horsley - Kembla Grange's population is around 15,449 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 3,294 people (27.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,155 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,090 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1,365 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 349 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Horsley - Kembla Grange's 27.1% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (5.9%) and the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 78.1% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including natural growth and overseas migration, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth, placing it in the top 10 percent of locations outside of capital cities, is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 11,186 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 63.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley - Kembla Grange has averaged around 278 new dwelling approvals each year, with 1,393 homes approved over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25) and 134 so far in FY-26. With an average of 2.6 new residents per year gained for each dwelling built over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), indicating healthy demand that should support property values, new homes are being built at an average value of $290,000, consistent with regional patterns. Additionally, $35.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting robust local business investment.

When measured against the Rest of NSW, Horsley - Kembla Grange shows 273.0% higher construction activity (per person), creating greater choice for buyers. This level is substantially higher than nationally, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New development consists of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, showing an expanding range of medium-density options creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shows a considerable change from the current housing mix (currently 94.0% houses), reflecting reduced availability of development sites and addressing shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. At around 55 people per approval, Horsley - Kembla Grange reflects a developing area.

Future projections show Horsley - Kembla Grange adding 9,823 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, 34 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley - Kembla Grange possesses a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of just 2.8%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 8,013 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.1% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (75.5% compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%). Based on Census responses, a high 26.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

Leading employment industries among residents comprise health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has particular employment specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share of 2.4 times the regional level. On the other hand, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of Horsley - Kembla Grange's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, over the 12 months to December 2025, employment increased by 0.5% while labour force increased by 0.7%, resulting in unemployment rise by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW experienced employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Horsley - Kembla Grange. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Horsley - Kembla Grange's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for FY-23, the Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,633 with the average level standing at $68,298. This is approximately average nationally and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $61,651 (median) and $74,349 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank exceptionally at the 82nd percentile ($2,286 weekly). The earnings profile shows 39.3% of the population (6,071 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Economic strength emerges through 30.9% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 81st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Horsley - Kembla Grange, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 93.9% houses and 6.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Horsley - Kembla Grange was lagging that of Regional NSW, at 26.6%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (56.5%) or rented (16.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional NSW average at $2,186, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Horsley - Kembla Grange's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 86.3% of all households, comprising 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 12.1% and group households comprising 1.5% of the total. The median household size of 3.0 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (20.0%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 101 active transport stops operating within Horsley - Kembla Grange, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 36 individual routes, collectively providing 1,397 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 178 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A high 26.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 199 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Horsley - Kembla Grange is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Horsley - Kembla Grange, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover just leads the average SA2 area at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,234 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 8.8% and 8.7% of residents, respectively, while 69.5% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 11.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,784 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley - Kembla Grange is roughly in line with the wider region's average in terms of cultural diversity, with 83.0% of its population born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 87.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Horsley - Kembla Grange is Christianity, which makes up 58.8% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Horsley - Kembla Grange are Australian, comprising 28.6% of the population, English, comprising 27.4% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 6.7% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Macedonian is notably overrepresented at 2.4% of Horsley - Kembla Grange (vs 0.4% regionally), Serbian at 0.8% (vs 0.2%), and Spanish at 0.8% (vs 0.3%).

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

With a median age of 34, Horsley - Kembla Grange is considerably lower than the Regional NSW figure of 43 and similarly significantly lower than Australia's 38 years. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 35 - 44 cohort is notably over-represented (16.3% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (7.2%). In the period since 2021, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 13.8% to 15.0% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 10.6% to 8.9% and the 5 to 14 group dropped from 16.1% to 14.9%. Demographic modeling suggests Horsley - Kembla Grange's age profile will evolve significantly by 2041. The 35 to 44 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, expanding by 1,707 people (68%) from 2,522 to 4,230.