Horsley - Kembla Grange

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Horsley-Kembla Grange's population was 14,906 as of May 2026. This is an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 12,155 people. The growth is inferred from ABS data showing an estimated resident population of 14,757 in June 2025 and 1,422 new addresses validated since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 336 persons per square kilometer. Horsley-Kembla Grange's growth rate of 22.6% since the 2021 census exceeded both the SA3 area (4.7%) and Rest of NSW, making it a growth leader in the region. Interstate migration contributed approximately 74.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, Horsley-Kembla Grange is predicted to grow exceptionally, placing it in the top 10 percent of locations outside capital cities by 2041. The area is expected to expand by 10,520 persons over this period, reflecting a total increase of 69.5%.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley-Kembla Grange averaged approximately 278 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, 1,393 homes were approved, with a further 151 approved so far in FY-26. Each year, an average of 2.6 new residents was gained per dwelling built during these years, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

New homes are constructed at an average cost of $290,000, aligning with regional patterns. This financial year has seen $35.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley-Kembla Grange exhibits 254.0% higher construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New developments comprise 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across price brackets. This shift from the current housing mix of 94.0% houses reflects reduced development site availability and addresses evolving lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With approximately 55 people per approval, Horsley-Kembla Grange is a developing area.

Future projections estimate an addition of 10,364 residents by 2041 (based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Current development levels appear aligned with future needs, maintaining stable market conditions without significant price pressures.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 34 projects likely affecting the region. Notable initiatives include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley - Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with prominent representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%. Employment stability has been relative over the past year.

As of December 2025, there are 8,013 employed residents, with an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation stands at 72.2%, exceeding Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 26.5% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Finance & insurance has an employment share 2.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2%. Local employment opportunities appear limited, with a working population vs resident population count indicating this. Over December 2024 to December 2025, employment increased by 0.5%, labour force by 0.7%, and unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment decline of 1.2% and labour force decline of 0.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley - Kembla Grange's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,633. The average income level stood at $68,298, which was approximately average nationally. This compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $62,478 (median) and $75,346 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank at the 82nd percentile ($2,286 weekly). The earnings profile shows 39.3% of the population (5,858 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Economic strength emerges through 30.9% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 81st percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horsley-Kembla Grange's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, comprised 93.9% houses and 6.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley-Kembla Grange stood at 26.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.5% and rented dwellings at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,186, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in the area was $500, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Horsley-Kembla Grange's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,186 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.3% of all households, including 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 12.1% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.0%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.7%). Educational participation is high, with 31.5% currently enrolled in formal education, comprising primary (11.9%), secondary (8.6%), and tertiary (3.8%) levels.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 101 active public transport stops in Horsley - Kembla Grange. These include a mix of train and bus services. There are 36 individual routes operating, providing a total of 1,397 weekly passenger trips. Residents have excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 178 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 96%.

Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high 26.5% of residents work from home, potentially reflecting COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 199 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop. The map shows the locations of the 100 nearest stops to the area's centrepoint.

Health performance in Horsley - Kembla Grange is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Horsley-Kembla Grange faces significant health challenges as assessed by AreaSearch.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are high, with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 53%, higher than the average SA2 area (~7,944 people). Mental health issues and asthma were found to be the most common medical conditions, impacting 8.8% and 8.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 69.5% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 11.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,720 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley-Kembla Grange's population showed cultural diversity similar to the wider region, with 83.0% born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 87.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 58.8%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.6%), English (27.4%), and Scottish (6.7%).

Notable differences included Macedonian (2.4% vs regional 0.4%), Serbian (0.8% vs 0.2%), and Spanish (0.8% vs 0.3%) groups in Horsley-Kembla Grange.

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Horsley-Kembla Grange's median age of 34 is lower than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and Australia's average of 38 years. Compared to the regional average, those aged 35-44 are over-represented locally at 16.0%, while those aged 75-84 are under-represented at 3.1%. Between 2021 and now, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.0% to 13.9% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 10.6% to 8.9%, and the 5-14 group has dropped from 16.1% to 15.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Horsley-Kembla Grange's age profile, with the 35-44 cohort expected to grow by 74%, from 2,383 to 4,146 people.