Horsley - Kembla Grange

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

According to research conducted by AreaSearch, the population of Horsley - Kembla Grange stands at approximately 14,906 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 2,751 people (22.6%) from the 12,155 individuals recorded in the 2021 Census. This adjustment is calculated using the June 2025 ABS estimated resident population of 14,757 combined with 1,422 validated new addresses identified after the Census. The resulting population density is 336 persons per square kilometer, indicating low density with substantial capacity for future development. The growth rate of 22.6% since the 2021 census outpaced both the broader SA3 region (4.7%) and the Rest of NSW, positioning the locality as a primary growth center. This expansion was mostly fueled by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 74.1% of the population increase, though other factors like natural increase and overseas migration also registered positive gains.

Projections from ABS and Geoscience Australia, published in 2024 with a 2022 baseline, are applied to each SA2 region. For SA2 regions lacking this coverage, figures are derived from the 2022 NSW State Government projections which use a 2021 baseline. Age-specific growth trends from these sources are projected forward to the years 2032 through 2041. Based on these demographic forecasts, the district is set for rapid expansion that ranks in the highest 10 percent of regional non-metropolitan locations, with projections indicating an increase of 10,520 persons by 2041 relative to the most recent annual ERP statistics, which is a 69.5% rise over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Approval records indicate that Horsley - Kembla Grange averages approximately 278 residential approvals annually, with 1,393 homes approved during the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, and 199 approvals recorded during FY-26 to date. An average of 2.5 new residents was added for every finished home over the 5 financial years spanning FY-21 to FY-25, highlighting consistent demand that helps sustain local property values. Newly constructed homes average an estimated building cost of $290,000, aligning with regional averages. Additionally, commercial development approvals total $35.3 million for the current financial year, pointing to strong investment in the local business sector.

When measured per capita, building approvals in Horsley - Kembla Grange are 254.0% higher than in the Rest of NSW, providing home buyers with diverse options. This volume sits substantially above national benchmarks, demonstrating high developer engagement. Current construction projects consist of 59.0% detached houses and 41.0% medium to high-density options, with an increasing proportion of townhouses and apartments offering choices across different budget tiers, ranging from family residences to compact homes. This represents a clear shift from the existing housing stock, which is 94.0% houses, due to a decrease in available land parcels and changing lifestyle preferences and budget constraints. Reflecting its status as a growth corridor, the area registers approximately 57 people for every residential approval.

Long-term projections indicate that Horsley - Kembla Grange will add 10,364 residents by 2041, based on the latest quarterly calculations from AreaSearch. The current rate of construction seems well aligned with this projected growth, promoting a balanced property market without significant price volatility.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Infrastructure updates, major works, and local planning policies are key drivers of regional growth. AreaSearch has identified a total of 34 developments that are expected to influence the local area. Important projects include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), with the primary details of these projects listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Horsley - Kembla Grange demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

The local workforce in Horsley - Kembla Grange is highly skilled, with strong representation in critical service fields, an unemployment rate of only 2.7%, and an estimated job growth rate of 2.3% over the prior year. As of March 2026, employed residents total 8,123, while the unemployment rate is 1.4% below the 4.1% recorded for Regional NSW. Furthermore, the participation rate of 73.2% is considerably higher than the Regional NSW average of 60.6%. Census data indicates that 26.5% of workers operated from home, though this figure may reflect the influence of pandemic restrictions.

The primary employment sectors for local residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The region exhibits a notable concentration in the finance & insurance sector, where the employment share is 2.4 times the regional average. Conversely, the agriculture, forestry & fishing industry is minor, employing just 0.2% of the local workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. A comparison of the Census working population against the resident population suggests a limited volume of local jobs within the area itself.

Analysis of SALM and ABS statistics by AreaSearch shows that during the 12 months ending March 2026, the count of employed residents rose by 2.3% and the total labor force grew by 2.6%, resulting in a 0.2 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. Conversely, Regional NSW saw employment fall by 0.9% and its labor force decrease by 0.4%, leading to a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment. National employment projections released by Jobs and Skills Australia in May-25 offer additional context for future demand trends in Horsley - Kembla Grange. These five-year and ten-year forecasts have been applied to the local workforce structure to model future growth. While national employment is projected to rise by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, trends vary widely by sector. Applying these sectoral projections to the local industry mix suggests employment among residents could grow by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, representing a simple weighted model that does not incorporate local population forecasts.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to postcode-level ATO data compiled by AreaSearch for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2 recorded a median income of $56,633 and an average income of $68,298. These figures align closely with national benchmarks, contrasting with Regional NSW where the median is $52,390 and the average is $65,215. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since the 2023 financial year, current figures are estimated at approximately $62,478 for median income and $75,346 for average income as of March 2026. Census findings place local household incomes at the 82nd percentile, with a weekly median of $2,286. The largest income bracket contains 39.3% of households earning between $1,500 - 2,999 per week (5,858 residents), which mirrors the broader region where this group makes up 29.9% of households. The area displays high purchasing power, with 30.9% of households earning above $3,000 weekly, which supports upscale retail and services. Housing costs account for 16.1% of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income at the 81st percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the 7th decile for income.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

At the time of the latest Census, the housing stock in Horsley - Kembla Grange consisted of 93.9% separate houses and 6.1% alternative formats such as townhouses and apartments, compared to 82.6% houses and 17.4% other options in Regional NSW. Home ownership rates in the area were lower than the regional benchmark, sitting at 26.6%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (56.5%) or rented (16.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,186 was higher than the Regional NSW average of $1,733, and the median weekly rent of $500 also exceeded the regional figure of $330. On a national scale, mortgage payments in Horsley - Kembla Grange are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are above the national average of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Families make up the vast majority of households at 86.3%, consisting of couples with children (46.6%), couples without children (27.0%), and single-parent households (12.2%). The remaining 13.7% are non-family households, which are mostly single-person households (12.1%) along with group households (1.5%). The median household size of 3.0 people exceeds the average of 2.4 seen across Regional NSW.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

Educational attainment levels present opportunities for improvement, as the proportion of residents with a university degree (20.0%) is lower than the state average of 32.2%. This creates a clear case for targeted local educational programs. Among degree holders, Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.3% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational and technical qualifications are widespread, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding credentials, split between advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.7%).

A high proportion of the population is engaged in study, with 31.5% of residents enrolled in an educational institution. This includes 11.9% attending primary school, 8.6% in secondary school, and 3.8% enrolled in tertiary courses.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport services in Horsley - Kembla Grange include 101 active stops, providing both rail and bus connections. These stops are served by 36 different routes, delivering 1,397 passenger trips each week. Transport access is highly rated, with residents living an average of 178 meters from a stop. The area functions primarily as a commuter suburb, with 96% of residents traveling to work by car. Households own an average of 1.9 vehicles, which is higher than the regional average. A significant 26.5% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which was likely influenced by temporary pandemic conditions.

Service frequency across all routes averages 199 trips daily, which translates to about 13 weekly trips per stop. The map shows the location of the 100 closest stops relative to the center of the area.

Health performance in Horsley - Kembla Grange is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Based on health indicators, chronic disease prevalence, and mortality rates, Horsley - Kembla Grange presents notable public health challenges, with health conditions distributed across both younger and older cohorts, while private health insurance coverage is slightly above average, held by approximately 53% of the population (~7,944 people).

Mental health conditions and asthma are the most frequently reported diagnoses, affecting 8.8 and 8.7% of the population, respectively, while 69.5% of residents reported having no chronic medical conditions, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Rates of chronic illness among working-age residents are higher than average. Residents aged 65 and over make up 11.5% of the population (1,720 people), which is below the Regional NSW average of 23.4%. Health outcomes in this older demographic show challenges, with national rankings remaining consistent with the wider population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

The demographic profile of Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with regional averages for cultural background, with 83.0% of residents born in Australia, 92.7% holding citizenship, and 87.2% speaking only English in their households. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 58.8% of the local population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of family heritage, the most common ancestries are Australian (28.6%), English (27.4%), and Scottish (6.7%). There are also specific ethnic groups with higher concentrations than the regional average, notably Macedonian at 2.4% (compared to 0.4% regionally), Serbian at 0.8% (compared to 0.2%), and Spanish at 0.8% (compared to 0.3%).

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

The median age in Horsley - Kembla Grange is 34, which is lower than the Regional NSW median of 43 and the national average of 38 years. Compared to regional figures, the 35 - 44 age cohort is larger (16.0% locally), while the 75 - 84 cohort is smaller (3.1%). Since 2021, the proportion of residents aged 15 to 24 grew from 13.0% to 13.9%. In contrast, the 55 to 64 group decreased from 10.6% to 8.9%, and the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 16.1% to 15.1%. Demographic projections suggest the age distribution will change by 2041, with the 35 to 44 cohort expected to increase by 1,762 people (74%) from 2,383 to 4,146.