Horsley - Kembla Grange

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Horsley-Kembla Grange's population was around 15,443 as of November 2025, according to AreaSearch's analysis. This figure represents a growth of 3,288 people (27.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,155. The increase is inferred from an estimated resident population of 14,093 in June 2024 and an additional 1,364 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 349 persons per square kilometer. Horsley-Kembla Grange's growth rate exceeded that of non-metro areas (5.1%) and its SA3 area, indicating significant population expansion. Interstate migration contributed approximately 78.1% to this growth.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Horsley-Kembla Grange is projected to expand by 11,186 persons, reflecting a total increase of 63.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley - Kembla Grange averaged approximately 278 new dwelling approvals annually. Between FY-21 and FY-25, it approved a total of 1,393 homes, with an additional 105 approved so far in FY-26. Each year, on average, 2.6 new residents were gained per dwelling built during these five financial years.

New homes are constructed at an average cost value of $290,000, aligning with regional patterns. In FY-26, commercial development approvals reached $35.3 million, indicating robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley - Kembla Grange exhibits 273.0% higher construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and catering to varying price brackets. This shift from the current housing mix (currently 94.0% houses) addresses reduced development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands. With approximately 55 people per approval, Horsley - Kembla Grange is a developing area.

By 2041, it is projected to add 9,829 residents, with current construction levels expected to meet housing demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth beyond current forecasts.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley-Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with an unemployment rate of 2.8% as of September 2025. This is lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

The area experienced employment growth of 0.6% over the past year. As of September 2025, 7,965 residents are employed, with a workforce participation rate of 70.2%, higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a significant employment specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, while labour force increased by 0.8%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW experienced employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with a state unemployment rate of 3.9%. National forecasts project total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections suggest Horsley-Kembla Grange's employment could increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $52,826. The average income stood at $65,357, which is approximately national average and compares to levels of $49,459 and $62,998 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $59,487 (median) and $73,599 (average) as of September 2025. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank exceptionally at the 82nd percentile ($2,286 weekly). The earnings profile shows 39.3% of the population (6,069 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Economic strength emerges through 30.9% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 81st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Horsley-Kembla Grange, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.9% houses and 6.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley-Kembla Grange was at 26.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.5% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,186, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Horsley-Kembla Grange's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.3% of all households, including 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 12.1% and group households making up 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate was 20.0% as of 2021, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees were the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials were prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 43.5% holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.7%). Educational participation was high, with 31.5% of residents enrolled in formal education as of the latest census.

This included primary education (11.9%), secondary education (8.6%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis shows that there are currently 94 operational transport stops in Horsley - Kembla Grange. These stops offer a combination of train and bus services, with a total of 35 routes running weekly. This results in approximately 1,235 passenger trips each week.

The accessibility to public transport is rated as excellent, with residents being located an average of 180 meters from the nearest stop. On average, there are about 176 trips per day across all routes, which equates to around 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Horsley - Kembla Grange's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows relatively positive health outcomes for Horsley - Kembla Grange residents.

The prevalence of common health conditions is quite low among the general population but higher than the national average amongst older, at-risk cohorts. Approximately 52% (~8,092 people) of the total population has private health cover, slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 8.8 and 8.7% of residents respectively. 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has 11.3% (1,748 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley-Kembla Grange, surveyed in June 2016, had a population with 83.0% born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 87.2% speaking English only at home, aligning with the wider region's averages. Christianity was the dominant religion (58.8%), closely matching Rest of NSW's 58.1%. Ancestry-wise, Australians led at 28.6%, followed by English at 27.4%, and Scottish at 6.7%.

Notably, Macedonian ancestry was higher than regional averages at 2.4% versus 3.8%, while Serbian and Spanish were similarly represented at 0.8% each compared to regional figures of 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Horsley-Kembla Grange has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's median age of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 35-44 cohort is over-represented in Horsley-Kembla Grange at 16.2%, while the 65-74 year-olds are under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 13.8% to 14.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 10.6% to 9.1%, and the 5 to 14 year-olds have dropped from 16.1% to 15.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Horsley-Kembla Grange's age profile, with the 35 to 44 age cohort expected to grow by 1,729 people (69%), from 2,500 to 4,230.