Horsley - Kembla Grange

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Horsley - Kembla Grange's population is around 15,443 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase from the 2021 Census figure of 12,155 people, a rise of 3,288 (27.1%). The change is inferred from ABS estimates: 14,093 in June 2024 and an additional 1,364 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 349 persons per square kilometer. Horsley - Kembla Grange's growth exceeded non-metro (5.1%) and SA3 area averages, marking it as a regional growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 78.1% to overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For uncovered areas, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections from 2022 (base year: 2021) are used. Growth rates by age group are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, the area is projected to expand by 11,186 persons, reflecting a total increase of 63.6% over the 17-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley-Kembla Grange averaged approximately 278 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, 1,393 homes were approved, with an additional 84 approved in FY26 as of current records. Each year, on average, 2.6 new residents were gained per dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating strong demand that supports property values.

The average construction cost value for new homes was around $430,000, aligning with regional patterns. In the current financial year, $35.3 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley-Kembla Grange exhibits 273.0% higher construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and demonstrating strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of housing opportunities across price brackets. This shift reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, differing from the current housing mix which is predominantly houses (94.0%). With approximately 55 people per approval, Horsley-Kembla Grange indicates a developing area.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, future projections suggest that Horsley-Kembla Grange will add around 9,829 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply is expected to meet demand adequately, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley - Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with low unemployment. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 2.6%.

Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.6%. The area has 7,640 residents in work, with an unemployment rate 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is high at 70.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Finance & insurance has a particularly high share of employment, at 2.4 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.2% of the workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment opportunities may be limited locally, as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, labour force by 0.8%, resulting in a slight rise in unemployment. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1% and a larger rise in unemployment. State-level data to Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03%, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley - Kembla Grange's industry mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, though this is a simplified extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

In financial year 2022, Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2 had a median taxpayer income of $52,826 and an average income of $65,357. Nationally, the median was $49,459 and the average was $62,998. By September 2025, estimates suggest these figures will be approximately $59,487 (median) and $73,599 (average), based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since 2022. According to Census 2021 income data, household incomes rank at the 82nd percentile with weekly earnings of $2,286. In this area, 39.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 annually, similar to the surrounding region's 29.9%. High income households (earning over $3,000 weekly) comprise 30.9%, indicating strong consumer spending potential despite high housing costs consuming 16.1% of income. Disposable income ranks at the 81st percentile, with the area's SEIFA income ranking placing it in the 6th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Horsley-Kembla Grange, as per the latest Census, 93.9% of dwellings were houses, with 6.1% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley-Kembla Grange stood at 26.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.5% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,186, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in the area was $500, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Horsley-Kembla Grange's median monthly mortgage repayment is significantly higher at $2,186 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.3% of all households, including 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 12.1% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.0%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 31.7%. Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.9% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Horsley - Kembla Grange shows that there are currently 94 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services. A total of 35 individual routes service these stops, collectively providing 1,235 weekly passenger trips.

The report rates transport accessibility as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 180 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 176 trips per day across all routes, which equates to about 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Horsley - Kembla Grange's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Horsley - Kembla Grange residents show relatively positive health outcomes, with low prevalence of common conditions compared to the general population but higher than national averages for older, at-risk cohorts.

Private health cover is held by approximately 52% of the total population (~8,092 people), slightly above the average SA2 area rate. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (affecting 8.8% of residents) and asthma (8.7%), while 69.5% report having no medical ailments, higher than Rest of NSW's 63.9%. The area has 11.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,748 people), lower than the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Senior health outcomes require more attention than those of the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley-Kembla Grange, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity profile roughly aligned with its broader region. It reported 83.0% of residents born in Australia, 92.7% being Australian citizens, and 87.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, practised by 58.8%, similar to the 58.1% regional average for Rest of NSW.

Top ancestry groups were Australian (28.6%), English (27.4%), and Scottish (6.7%). Notably, Macedonian ethnicity was higher at 2.4% compared to the region's 3.8%, Serbian was similar at 0.8%, and Spanish slightly lower at 0.8% versus the regional 0.9%.

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Horsley-Kembla Grange's median age in 2021 was 34, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38. The 35-44 cohort was notably over-represented at 16.2%, while the 65-74 year-olds were under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and present, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 13.8% to 14.8% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 10.6% to 9.1%, and the 5 to 14 age group dropped from 16.1% to 15.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Horsley-Kembla Grange's age profile will significantly evolve, with the 35 to 44 age cohort projected to grow by 1,729 people (69%), from 2,500 to 4,230.