Horsley - Kembla Grange

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Horsley-Kembla Grange's population is around 15,443 as of November 2025. This reflects an increase of 3,288 people (27.1%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 12,155 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 14,090 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 1,364 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 349 persons per square kilometer. Horsley-Kembla Grange's growth exceeded Rest of NSW's (5.7%) and SA3 area's growth since the 2021 census, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 78.1% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing Horsley-Kembla Grange in the top 10 percent of locations outside capital cities. The area is expected to expand by 11,186 persons to 2041 based on latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 63.6% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley-Kembla Grange averaged approximately 278 new dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, from FY-21 to FY-25, totaling 1,393 homes approved. In FY-26, up to May, 127 dwellings have been approved. Each year, an average of 2.6 new residents is gained per dwelling built over the past five financial years, indicating strong demand for housing.

The average construction cost value of new homes is $290,000, aligning with regional patterns. This financial year has seen $35.3 million in commercial development approvals, reflecting robust local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley-Kembla Grange exhibits 273.0% higher construction activity per person, offering greater choice for buyers and suggesting strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, expanding medium-density housing options and catering to various price brackets. This shift marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (94.0%). With approximately 55 people per approval, Horsley-Kembla Grange reflects an area experiencing growth and development.

According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, Horsley-Kembla Grange is projected to add around 9,829 residents by 2041. Given current construction levels, housing supply should meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers while potentially facilitating growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Notable ones include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley - Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%, having seen an estimated employment growth of 0.6% over the past year. As of September 2025, there are 7,965 residents employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.0% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

The workforce participation rate is 75.3%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 26.5% of residents work from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Finance & insurance has a higher representation with an employment share of 2.4 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.2%.

Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.6% and labour force by 0.8%, leading to a unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley - Kembla Grange's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of ATO data released for financial year 2023, Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2 had a median income among taxpayers of $56,633 and an average level of $68,298. Nationally, the median was $54,714 and the average was $71,133. In Rest of NSW, these figures were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $61,651 (median) and $74,349 (average), based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86%. Census 2021 income data shows household incomes rank at the 82nd percentile ($2,286 weekly). In Horsley - Kembla Grange SA2, 39.3% of individuals earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, similar to the surrounding region's 29.9%. High earning households (exceeding $3,000 weekly) comprise 30.9%, indicating strong consumer spending despite high housing costs consuming 16.1% of income. Disposable income ranks at the 81st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horsley-Kembla Grange's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.9% houses and 6.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley-Kembla Grange was at 26.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.5% and rented ones at 16.8%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,186, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Weekly rent median was $500, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Horsley-Kembla Grange's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,186 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 86.3% of all households, including 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 13.7%, consisting of 12.1% lone person households and 1.5% group households. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 20.0%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 11.8% and certificates at 31.7%. Educational participation is high, with 31.5% currently enrolled in formal education: 11.9% in primary, 8.6% in secondary, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.9% in primary education, 8.6% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horsley-Kembla Grange has 101 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These are covered by 36 routes, collectively providing 1,397 weekly passenger trips. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 178 meters to the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward from this primarily residential area, with cars being the dominant mode at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, higher than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 26.5% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 199 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop. A map accompanies this data, showing the 100 nearest stops to the location's centrepoint.

Health performance in Horsley - Kembla Grange is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Horsley - Kembla Grange, as assessed by AreaSearch on February 15, 2021.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age groups. Private health cover stands at approximately 53% of the total population (~8,231 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are mental health issues (8.8%) and asthma (8.7%). Conversely, 69.5% of residents claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age residents show a higher-than-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 11.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,748 people), lower than the 23.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley-Kembla Grange, as per the 2016 Census, had a cultural diversity profile roughly similar to the wider region's average. The Australian-born population was 83.0%, with 92.7% being citizens and 87.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 58.8% of the population, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 55.9%.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.6%), English (27.4%), and Scottish (6.7%). Notably, Macedonian (2.4%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.4%, as were Serbian (0.8% vs 0.2%) and Spanish (0.8% vs 0.3%).

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Horsley-Kembla Grange has a median age of 34, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's figure of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, those aged 35-44 are over-represented at 16.2%, while those aged 65-74 are under-represented at 7.0%. Between 2021 and present, the age group 25-34 has grown from 13.8% to 14.8% of the population. Conversely, the age group 55-64 has declined from 10.6% to 9.1%, and the age group 5-14 has dropped from 16.1% to 15.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests significant changes in Horsley-Kembla Grange's age profile. The 35-44 age cohort is projected to grow significantly, increasing by 1,729 people (69%) from 2,500 to 4,230.