Horsley - Kembla Grange
Statistical Area - sa2

Horsley - Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Horsley - Kembla Grange's population is around 15,428 as of August 2025. This reflects an increase of 3,273 people since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 12,155. The change is inferred from ABS estimates showing an estimated resident population of 14,087 in June 2024 and an additional 1,361 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 348 persons per square kilometer. Horsley - Kembla Grange's growth of 26.9% since the 2021 census exceeds the non-metro area's growth of 4.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 78.1% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, with the area expected to expand by 11,186 persons to 2041 based on latest population numbers, reflecting an increase of 63.8% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley - Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Horsley-Kembla Grange averaged approximately 278 new dwelling approvals annually from FY-21 to FY-25. In total, 1,393 homes were approved during these five financial years, with a further 66 approved in FY-26 as of the given date. Each year, an average of 2.6 new residents was gained per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25.

The average construction cost value of new homes is around $430,000, aligning with regional trends. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totaled $35.3 million, indicating significant local business investment. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley-Kembla Grange exhibits 273.0% higher construction activity per capita, offering greater choice for buyers and reflecting strong developer confidence in the location. New developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% attached dwellings, providing a mix of medium-density options from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives. This shift contrasts with the current housing mix of 94.0% houses, reflecting changing development site availability and evolving lifestyle demands and affordability needs. With approximately 55 people per approval, Horsley-Kembla Grange is considered a developing area.

By 2041, projections estimate an addition of 9,844 residents. Given current construction levels, housing supply is expected to meet demand adequately, creating favorable conditions for buyers while potentially facilitating growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Horsley - Kembla Grange has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 34 projects likely impacting the area. Key projects include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, West Dapto Road Upgrade, and Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South). The following list details those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch analysis places Horsley - Kembla Grange well above average for employment performance across multiple indicators

Horsley-Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 2.6% as of June 2025, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6% over the past year.

In this month, 7,640 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was higher at 70.2%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment industries among residents included health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had a notable specialization in finance & insurance, with an employment share 2.4 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented, with only 0.2% of Horsley-Kembla Grange's workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally based on Census data analysis. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, labour force by 0.8%, resulting in a unemployment rise of 0.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1% and labour force growth of 0.3%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment. State-level data to Sep-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.41%, losing 19,270 jobs, with the state unemployment rate at 4.3%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.5% and lagged behind national employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 projected national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley-Kembla Grange's employment mix suggested local growth of approximately 6.6%% over five years and 13.9% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income analysis reveals strong economic positioning, with the area outperforming 60% of locations assessed nationally by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2022, Horsley - Kembla Grange had a median income among taxpayers of $52,826. The average income stood at $65,357. This was approximately the national average and compared to levels of $49,459 and $62,998 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year ended June 2022, current estimates would be approximately $58,426 (median) and $72,285 (average) as of March 2025. Census data from 2021 shows household incomes rank at the 83rd percentile with weekly earnings of $2,286. The earnings profile shows 39.3% of the population fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 income range, aligning with the surrounding region where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Economic strength emerges through 30.9% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. High housing costs consume 16.1% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 81st percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley - Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horsley-Kembla Grange's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 93.9% houses and 6.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This contrasts with Non-Metro NSW's composition of 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley-Kembla Grange stood at 26.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (56.5%) or rented (16.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,186, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent in Horsley-Kembla Grange was $500, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, the area's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,186 against Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley - Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 86.3% of all households, including 46.6% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 12.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 13.7%, with lone person households at 12.1% and group households comprising 1.5%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Horsley - Kembla Grange aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area has lower university qualification rates than NSW's average, with only 20.0% of residents holding such qualifications compared to the state's 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.8%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.3%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are also prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificates (31.7%).

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including primary (11.9%), secondary (8.6%), and tertiary (3.8%) levels. Dapto Public School serves the Horsley - Kembla Grange area, enrolling 775 students as of a recent date. The school's ICSEA score is 1004, indicating typical Australian school conditions with balanced educational opportunities. It caters exclusively to primary education, while secondary options are available in nearby areas. Local school capacity is limited, with only 5.0 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 12.9, necessitating travel to other areas for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Horsley - Kembla Grange indicates that there are currently 94 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops offer a mix of train and bus services, with a total of 35 individual routes providing service to the residents. The collective weekly passenger trips facilitated by these routes amount to 1,235.

Transport accessibility in the region is rated as excellent, with an average distance of 180 meters between residents and their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 176 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Horsley - Kembla Grange's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Health data shows positive outcomes for Horsley - Kembla Grange residents.

The prevalence of common health conditions is relatively low among the general population, although it is higher than the national average in older and at-risk cohorts. Approximately 52% (~8,084 people) have private health cover, which is slightly higher than the average SA2 area. Mental health issues and asthma are the most common medical conditions, affecting 8.8 and 8.7% of residents respectively. About 69.5% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has 11.3% (1,746 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley - Kembla Grange records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley-Kembla Grange's cultural diversity aligns with the broader region, with 83.0% of residents born in Australia, 92.7% being citizens, and 87.2% speaking English only at home. The dominant religion is Christianity, practised by 58.8%, compared to 58.1% across Rest of NSW. The top ancestral groups are Australian (28.6%), English (27.4%), and Scottish (6.7%).

Notably, Macedonian ethnicity is higher than average at 2.4% versus the regional 3.8%. Serbian and Spanish ethnicities also show slight variations, with 0.8% each compared to 0.8% and 0.9% regionally respectively.

Horsley - Kembla Grange hosts a young demographic, positioning it in the bottom quartile nationwide

Horsley-Kembla Grange's median age in 2021 was 34 years, lower than the Rest of NSW figure at 43 years and Australia's median age of 38 years. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, Horsley-Kembla Grange had a notably higher proportion of individuals aged 35-44 (16.2% locally) and a lower proportion of those aged 65-74 (7.0%). Between 2021 and the present, the population aged 25 to 34 grew from 13.8% to 14.8%, while the 55 to 64 cohort declined from 10.6% to 9.1% and the 5 to 14 group decreased from 16.1% to 15.1%. By 2041, demographic modeling projects significant changes in Horsley-Kembla Grange's age profile, with the 35 to 44 age cohort expected to grow by 1,732 people (an increase of 69%) from 2,497 to 4,230.