Dapto - Avondale

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dapto - Avondale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis, Dapto - Avondale's population is around 25,684 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,489 people (6.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,195 people. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,765 from the ABS as of June 2024 and an additional 186 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population level equates to a density ratio of 453 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Dapto - Avondale's 6.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (5.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration, which contributed approximately 39.6% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers, including overseas migration and natural growth, were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Anticipating future population dynamics, an above-median population growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas is projected, with the area expected to increase by 3,365 persons by 2041 based on the latest annual ERP population numbers, reflecting an increase of 9.5% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dapto - Avondale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dapto - Avondale has recorded around 98 residential properties granted approval annually, totalling 493 homes over the past 5 financial years. So far in FY-26, 22 approvals have been recorded. At an average of just 0.9 new residents per year arriving per new home over the past 5 financial years (between FY-21 and FY-25), new construction is matching or outpacing demand, offering buyers more options and enabling population growth that could exceed current expectations, while new dwellings are developed at an average value of $244,000—below regional norms—reflecting more affordable housing options for purchasers. Additionally, $34.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity.

When measured against the Rest of NSW, Dapto - Avondale records about 64% of the building activity per person while it places among the 36th percentile of areas assessed nationally, resulting in relatively constrained buyer choice and supporting interest in existing homes. New development consists of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% townhouses or apartments. This trend toward denser development provides accessible entry options and appeals to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 85.0% houses), suggesting diminishing developable land availability and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. The estimated count of 457 people in the area per dwelling approval reflects its quiet, low activity development environment.

Future projections show Dapto - Avondale adding 2,446 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Dapto - Avondale has moderate levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 50% nationally

Nothing can influence an area's performance as much as changes to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total 31 projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to have an impact on the area. Key projects include the Cleveland Road Upgrade - West Dapto, WestPoint Dapto, M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto, and the West Dapto Urban Release Area, with the list below detailing those likely to be of most relevance.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Dapto - Avondale faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Dapto - Avondale has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 8.8%, and relative employment stability over the past year. As of December 2025, 11,164 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 4.8% above Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is broadly similar to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Based on Census responses, a moderate 19.7% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

The key industries of employment among residents are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented, with only 0.5% of Dapto - Avondale's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW. The area appears to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of the Census working population versus the resident population.

Based on AreaSearch analysis of SALM and ABS data, during the year to December 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2% and the labour force increased by 0.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Regional NSW recorded an employment decline of 1.2%, a labour force decline of 0.8%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 can offer further insight into potential future demand within Dapto - Avondale. These projections, covering five and ten-year periods, have been mapped against the local employment profile to estimate growth patterns. While national employment is forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates differ significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Dapto - Avondale's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years (please note this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not take into account localised population projections).

The area's income profile falls below national averages based on AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for FY-23 reveals that income in the Dapto - Avondale SA2 is just below the national average, with the median assessed at $55,733 while the average income stands at $66,430. This contrasts with Regional NSW's figures of a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since FY-23, current estimates would be approximately $60,671 (median) and $72,316 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank modestly in Dapto - Avondale, between the 22nd and 32nd percentiles. The data shows the predominant cohort spans 32.2% of locals (8,270 people) in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort likewise represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 81.8% of income remaining, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Dapto - Avondale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure within Dapto - Avondale, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.0% houses and 14.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Dapto - Avondale was in line with that of Regional NSW, at 38.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (37.4%) or rented (24.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional NSW average at $1,950, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Dapto - Avondale's mortgage repayments are higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

Dapto - Avondale has a typical household mix, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households dominate at 73.3% of all households, comprising 29.8% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 24.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size of 2.5 people is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Dapto - Avondale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (13.5%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 9.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (33.1%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis reveals 191 active transport stops operating within Dapto - Avondale, comprising a mix of trains and buses. These stops are serviced by 60 individual routes, collectively providing 3,188 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward; the car remains the dominant mode at 94%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per dwelling. Some 19.7% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

Service frequency averages 455 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 16 weekly trips per individual stop. The accompanying map shows the 100 nearest stops to the location centrepoint.

Health performance in Dapto - Avondale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data reveals substantial challenges facing Dapto - Avondale, based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts, and the rate of private health cover slightly lags the average SA2 area at approximately 52% of the total population (~13,381 people).

The most common medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.5 and 9.8% of residents, respectively, while 61.2% declared themselves as completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (5,429 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

Dapto - Avondale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dapto - Avondale was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Dapto - Avondale is Christianity, which makes up 56.3% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

In terms of ancestry (country of birth of parents), the top three represented groups in Dapto - Avondale are English, comprising 31.0% of the population, Australian, comprising 28.9% of the population, and Scottish, comprising 7.3% of the population. Additionally, there are notable divergences in the representation of certain other ethnic groups: Macedonian is notably overrepresented at 1.2% of Dapto - Avondale (vs 0.4% regionally), Welsh at 0.8% (vs 0.5%) and Spanish at 0.7% (vs 0.3%).

Dapto - Avondale's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The 40-year median age in Dapto - Avondale is modestly under Regional NSW's average of 43 though slightly above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional NSW average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (14.1% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (9.8%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 12.3% to 14.1% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.9% to 13.1%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has declined from 11.2% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes for Dapto - Avondale. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to see notable expansion, growing by 804 people (22%) from 3,621 to 4,426. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 and 15 to 24 cohorts are expected to experience population declines.