Dapto - Avondale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dapto - Avondale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Dapto-Avondale's population, according to AreaSearch's analysis, was around 24,823 as of August 2025. This figure reflects an increase of 628 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 24,195. The change is inferred from the estimated resident population of 24,796 in June 2024 and an additional 185 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 438 persons per square kilometer. Dapto-Avondale's growth rate of 2.6% since the census is within 2.2 percentage points of the non-metro area's growth rate of 4.8%. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 39.6% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections are used, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future population dynamics project an above median growth for Australia's non-metropolitan areas. Dapto-Avondale is expected to increase by 3,365 persons to 2041, with a total increase of 13.3% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dapto - Avondale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dapto - Avondale has recorded approximately 98 residential properties granted approval annually over the past five financial years, totalling 493 homes. In Financial Year 26, which began on July 1st, 2025 and will end on June 30th, 2026, 5 approvals have been recorded so far. On average, 0.9 new residents arrive per year for each new home constructed between Financial Years 21 and 25. This pace of construction matches or exceeds demand, providing more housing options and enabling population growth that may surpass current projections.

The average expected construction cost value of new dwellings is $350,000, which is below regional norms, offering more affordable housing options for purchasers. In the current financial year, $34.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Dapto - Avondale records approximately 64% of building activity per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes. New development in the area consists of 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% townhouses or apartments.

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which currently consist of 85.0% houses. The estimated population density is 457 people per dwelling approval, reflecting the area's quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate that Dapto - Avondale will add approximately 3,307 residents by the year 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with growth projections, though buyers may experience heightened competition for housing as the population grows.

Dapto - Avondale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 30 projects expected to affect the area. Notable ones include Cleveland Road Upgrade in West Dapto, M1 Princes Motorway south-facing ramps at Dapto, West Dapto Urban Release Area, and WestPoint Dapto. The following list details projects most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

AreaSearch assessment indicates Dapto - Avondale faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Dapto-Avondale has a diverse workforce with both white and blue collar jobs, with essential services sectors well represented. As of June 2025, the unemployment rate is 7.7%.

Over the past year, employment has remained relatively stable. There are 11,175 residents employed, with an unemployment rate 4.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Key industries of employment include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. However, agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.5%, compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment opportunities locally may be limited as indicated by Census data. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3% while labour force grew by 0.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decline by 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data for NSW as of Sep-25 shows employment contracted by 0.41% with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.5% with employment growth of 0.26%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dapto-Avondale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 shows that income in Dapto - Avondale is in line with national averages. The median income is $52,102 and the average income stands at $64,232. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's figures where the median income is $49,459 and the average income is $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.6% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $57,625 for median income and $71,041 for average income as of March 2025. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes in Dapto - Avondale rank modestly between the 23rd and 32nd percentiles. The data shows that 32.2% of locals (7,993 people) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income category, aligning with the broader area where this cohort also represents 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Dapto - Avondale, with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Dapto - Avondale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Dapto - Avondale, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 85.0% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dapto - Avondale was 38.2%, similar to Non-Metro NSW. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (37.4%) or rented (24.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Dapto - Avondale's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $390.

Dapto - Avondale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 73.3% of all households, including 29.8% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 24.5% and group households comprising 2.2%. The median household size is 2.5 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Dapto - Avondale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 13.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This discrepancy presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent, with 9.3% of residents holding such qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ having them - advanced diplomas comprise 9.8%, while certificates make up 33.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education. Seven schools operate within Dapto, educating approximately 3,700 students, as of the latest available data. These schools demonstrate typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 953) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with five primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Dapto-Avondale has 183 active public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 56 different routes, carrying out 2,777 weekly passenger trips in total. Residents enjoy excellent transport accessibility, with an average distance of 167 meters to the nearest stop.

Service frequency stands at 396 trips per day across all routes, translating to around 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dapto - Avondale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Dapto - Avondale.

Both younger and older age groups exhibit high prevalence of common health conditions. The area has a private health cover rate of approximately 52%, slightly higher than the average SA2 area (~12,883 people). Arthritis and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions, affecting 10.5% and 9.8% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.2%, with 5,262 people falling into this age group, compared to 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly reflective of the general population's health profile.

Dapto - Avondale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dapto-Avondale, as per data from 2016 Census, exhibited low cultural diversity with 82.9% of its population born in Australia, 91.6% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Dapto-Avondale, accounting for 56.3% of its population, compared to 58.1% across Rest of NSW. The top ancestry groups were English (31.0%), Australian (28.9%), and Scottish (7.3%).

Notably, Macedonian (1.2%) was overrepresented in Dapto-Avondale compared to the regional average of 3.8%. Similarly, Welsh (0.8%) and Spanish (0.7%) were also more prevalent than their respective regional averages of 0.6% and 0.9%.

Dapto - Avondale's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Dapto - Avondale is 40 years, which is slightly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 cohort makes up 13.8% of the local population, notably higher than Rest of NSW's average, while the 65-74 age group constitutes 10.0%, lower than the rest of the state. Between the 2021 Census and present day, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 12.3% to 13.8%. Conversely, the 65 to 74 cohort has decreased from 11.2% to 10.0%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Dapto - Avondale. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 1,005 people (29%), from 3,420 to 4,426. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are expected to experience population declines.