Dapto - Avondale
Statistical Area - sa2

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dapto - Avondale reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

Dapto-Avondale's population, as of Aug 2025, is approximately 24,823. This figure represents a 628-person increase since the 2021 Census, which recorded a population of 24,195. The change was inferred from ABS estimates of 24,796 in June 2024 and an additional 185 validated new addresses post-Census. This results in a density ratio of 438 persons per square kilometer. Dapto-Avondale's growth rate of 2.6% since the Census is within 2.2 percentage points of the non-metro area (4.8%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 39.6% of overall population gains.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021, are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. By 2041, Dapto-Avondale is projected to increase by 3,365 persons, representing a total increase of 13.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch analysis of residential development drivers sees Dapto - Avondale recording a relatively average level of approval activity when compared to local markets analysed countrywide

Dapto - Avondale recorded approximately 98 residential property approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling 493 homes. As of FY26, 5 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents per year arriving for each new home over these five financial years (FY21 to FY25) is around 0.9. This indicates that new construction is meeting or exceeding demand, providing more options for buyers and enabling population growth that may surpass current expectations.

The average value of new dwellings developed is $350,000, which is below regional norms, reflecting more affordable housing options. In FY26, $34.9 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, showing high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Dapto - Avondale records about 64% of building activity per person and ranks among the 36th percentile nationally when measured against other areas assessed. This results in relatively constrained buyer choice, supporting interest in existing homes. The new development consists of approximately 31.0% standalone homes and 69.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from current housing patterns (currently 85.0% houses).

This trend towards denser development provides accessible entry options for downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. The estimated population density is around 457 people per dwelling approval, reflecting its quiet, low activity development environment. Future projections indicate that Dapto - Avondale will add approximately 3,307 residents by 2041. Building activity is keeping pace with these growth projections, though buyers may face increased competition as the population grows.

Dapto - Avondale has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified 31 projects that could affect the region. Notable initiatives include Cleveland Road Upgrade - West Dapto, M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto, West Dapto Urban Release Area, and WestPoint Dapto. The following list details those expected to have the most relevance.

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AreaSearch assessment indicates Dapto - Avondale faces employment challenges relative to the majority of Australian markets

Dapto - Avondale has a balanced white and blue collar workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 7.7% as of June 2019.

Over the past year, employment stability was relative. As of June 2025, 11,175 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.1% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.5%, compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW. Employment opportunities locally appear limited based on Census working population vs resident population count. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.3% while labour force grew by 0.6%, causing unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. Rest of NSW recorded employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, with unemployment rising 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May 2025 project national employment expansion by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but industry-specific projections vary significantly. Applying these projections to Dapto - Avondale's employment mix suggests local growth of approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year ended June 30, 2022 shows median income in Dapto - Avondale was $52,102 and average income was $64,232. This compares to Rest of NSW where median income was $49,459 and average income was $62,998. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% from July 1, 2022 to September 2025, estimated incomes would be approximately $58,672 (median) and $72,332 (average). From the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes ranked modestly in Dapto - Avondale, between 23rd and 32nd percentiles. The predominant income cohort was 32.2% of locals (7,993 people) earning $1,500 to $2,999 per week, similar to the broader area at 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures were severe with only 81.8% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 29th percentile.

Dapto - Avondale is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dapto - Avondale's dwelling structure in the latest Census showed 85.0% houses and 14.9% other dwellings. Non-Metro NSW had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership was at 38.2%, with mortgaged dwellings at 37.4% and rented ones at 24.4%. Median monthly mortgage repayments were $1,950, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent was $390, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Dapto - Avondale's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Dapto - Avondale has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.3% of all households, including 29.8% couples with children, 27.9% couples without children, and 14.5% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 26.7%, with lone person households at 24.5% and group households comprising 2.2% of the total. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Dapto - Avondale faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate stands at 13.5%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent (9.3%), followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 42.9% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 33.1%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.4% in primary education, 7.6% in secondary education, and 3.1% pursuing tertiary education. Seven schools operate within Dapto – Avondale educates approximately 3,700 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 953) with balanced educational opportunities. Education provision is balanced with five primary and two secondary schools serving distinct age groups.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 183 active stops operating in Dapto-Avondale, consisting of train and bus services. These stops are served by 56 individual routes, offering a total of 2,777 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 167 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 396 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dapto - Avondale is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Dapto - Avondale faces significant health challenges, as indicated by health data.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover stands at approximately 52% of the total population (~12,883 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (affecting 10.5% of residents) and mental health issues (9.8%). Conversely, 61.2% of residents report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 21.2%, with 5,262 people falling into this age category, compared to the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges largely aligned with the general population's health profile.

Dapto - Avondale ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dapto-Avondale, as per the census conducted on 28 June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 82.9% of its population born in Australia and 91.6% being citizens. English was spoken at home by 92.4%. Christianity was the dominant religion, practiced by 56.3%, slightly below the Rest of NSW average of 58.1%.

The top three ancestry groups were English (31%), Australian (28.9%), and Scottish (7.3%). Notably, Macedonian, Welsh, and Spanish ethnicities had higher representations in Dapto-Avondale compared to regional averages: Macedonian at 1.2% vs 0.6%, Welsh at 0.8% vs 0.5%, and Spanish at 0.7% vs 0.4%.

Dapto - Avondale's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Dapto - Avondale is 40, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. Compared to the Rest of NSW average, the 25-34 age cohort is notably higher at 13.8% locally, while the 65-74 age group is lower at 10.0%. According to the Census conducted on 28 August 2021, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.3% to 13.8%, and the 65-74 cohort has decreased from 11.2% to 10.0%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic shifts in Dapto - Avondale, with the 25-34 age group projected to expand by 1,005 people (29%), reaching 4,426 from its current 3,420. Meanwhile, the 15-24 and 55-64 age groups are expected to decrease in population.