Horsley

Horsley lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, as of Nov 2025, Horsley's estimated population is around 10,083. This reflects an increase of 646 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,437. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 8,954 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 1,954 persons per square kilometer, above the national average assessed by AreaSearch. Horsley's growth rate of 6.8% since the 2021 Census exceeded the non-metro area's 5.7%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Future trends predict exceptional growth placing Horsley in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas, with an expected increase of 8,501 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 92.7% over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Horsley has seen approximately 75 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years, totalling about 379 homes. So far in FY26, there have been 27 approvals recorded. Each year, around 7.3 people move to the area for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25. This high demand relative to new supply typically leads to price growth and increased buyer competition.

The average construction cost of new dwellings is about $430,000, which is slightly higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. In commercial development, there have been $24.1 million in approvals recorded this financial year, indicating balanced activity compared to the rest of NSW. Over the past five years, Horsley has had around 29% more development per person than the regional average, balancing buyer choice while supporting current property values. Recent construction consists of approximately 55% detached dwellings and 45% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from the existing housing pattern of predominantly houses (currently 96%).

This change suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs. With around 152 people moving in for each dwelling approval, Horsley exhibits characteristics of a growth area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the population is forecasted to grow by 9,342 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Horsley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nine projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. Key projects include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), and West Dapto Road Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Horsley shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Horsley has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.7%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.5% over the past year, as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of September 2025, there are 6,085 residents employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.1% lower than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation in Horsley stands at 68.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. The dominant employment sectors among residents include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, finance & insurance has employment levels at 2.4 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing employs just 0.2% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%.

The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities, as indicated by the Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending September 2025, employment increased by 0.5%, while labour force increased by 0.8%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.5%, labour force fall by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data up to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest that while overall employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Horsley's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reports Horsley's median income among taxpayers at $49,276, with an average of $60,965. This is lower than the national average. The Rest of NSW has a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, estimates for September 2025 would be approximately $53,642 (median) and $66,366 (average). According to Census 2021 income data, Horsley's household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,164 weekly), with personal income at the 55th percentile. The $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket dominates with 37.6% of residents (3,791 people). High housing costs consume 16.2% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horsley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census evaluation, consisted of 95.5% houses and 4.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley was at 29.7%, with the rest of dwellings either mortgaged (53.1%) or rented (17.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,167, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $500, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Horsley's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 85.4% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.0% and group households making up 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Horsley aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (32.4%). Educational participation is high at 31.5%, with 11.6% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 3.8% in tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 78 active transport stops operating within Horsley, consisting of a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 24 individual routes, collectively offering 620 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 159 meters from the nearest transport stop.

Service frequency averages 88 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Horsley are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Horsley's health indicators show below-average results, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~5,149 people) of Horsley's total population has private health cover, which is relatively low. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.2 and 8.7% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 67.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. Horsley has 12.7% (1,280 people) of its residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those for the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley's cultural diversity was found to be roughly aligned with the wider region, with 82.8% of its population born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 87.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Horsley, comprising 58.1% of people, similar to the 58.1% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Scottish (7.0%).

Notably, Macedonian ethnicity was overrepresented at 2.2%, compared to the regional average of 3.8%. Serbian representation was also slightly higher at 0.7% versus 0.8%, while Maltese remained steady at 1.3%.

Horsley's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Horsley is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 35-44 age group constitutes 15.6% of Horsley's population, compared to the Rest of NSW figure, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 7.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 11.7% to 12.7%, whereas the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 9.8%. By 2041, population forecasts indicate substantial demographic changes in Horsley. Notably, the 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 99%, adding 1,563 people and reaching a total of 3,136 from its current figure of 1,572.