Horsley

Horsley lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, the population of Horsley is estimated at around 10,089 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 652 people (6.9%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,437 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 8,954 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 272 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,955 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Horsley's 6.9% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the Rest of NSW (5.9%), marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth, placing Horsley in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 6,826 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 56.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Horsley has experienced around 76 dwellings receiving development approval annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 380 homes. So far in FY-26, 27 approvals have been recorded. With an average of 7.3 people moving to the area for each dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, demand significantly exceeds new supply.

This usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition. New dwellings are developed at an average value of $430,000, somewhat higher than regional norms, reflecting quality-focused development. Additionally, $24.1 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded this financial year, suggesting balanced commercial development activity compared to Rest of NSW. Horsley has slightly more development, 32.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period, balancing buyer choice with support for current property values.

Recent construction comprises 55.0% detached dwellings and 45.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 96.0% houses. This suggests diminishing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 151 people per dwelling approval, Horsley shows characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Horsley will gain 5,691 residents through to 2041. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing competition among buyers and supporting stronger price growth.

Horsley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes in local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that could impact this region. Notable ones include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), and West Dapto Road Upgrade. The following list details those most relevant.

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Employment conditions in Horsley demonstrate exceptional strength compared to most Australian markets

Horsley has a skilled workforce with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 2.8%. Over the past year, it maintained relative employment stability.

As of December 2025, 6128 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 1.2% lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Horsley stands at 88.0%, significantly higher than Regional NSW's 61.3%. According to Census responses, 25.6% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Finance & insurance has notably high employment levels at 2.4 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing employs only 0.2% of local workers, below Regional NSW's 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities. Over a 12-month period ending in December 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, labour force by 0.7%, leading to an unemployment rate rise of 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Regional NSW where employment contracted by 1.2%, labour force fell by 0.8%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Horsley suburb had a median income among taxpayers of $49,276 and an average of $60,965. Nationally, the median was higher at $58,100 with an average of $72,000. Regional NSW's figures were $52,390 (median) and $65,215 (average). Assuming Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from July 2023 to September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $53,642 and average $66,366 in Horsley. Census 2021 data shows household income ranked at the 75th percentile ($2,164 weekly), with personal income at the 55th percentile. The $1,500 - $2,999 income bracket dominated with 37.6% of residents (3,793 people). Housing costs consumed 16.2% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 75th percentile. Horsley's SEIFA income ranking was in the 6th decile.

Horsley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horsley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.5% houses and 4.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley stood at 29.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 53.1% and rented ones at 17.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, above Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Horsley was $500, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Horsley's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 85.4% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.0% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Horsley aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 11.5% and certificates at 32.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes primary education (11.6%), secondary education (9.2%), and tertiary education (3.8%).

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Horsley has 78 operational public transport stops, all of which are bus services. These stops are served by 24 different routes that collectively facilitate 620 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically residing 159 meters from the nearest stop. Primarily residential, Horsley sees most commuters traveling outward; cars remain the dominant mode of transport at 96%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 25.6%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 88 trips per day, equating to approximately seven weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Horsley is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Horsley faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence.

The prevalence of common health conditions is notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population, which is around 5,152 people. The most common medical conditions in the area are mental health issues and asthma, impacting 9.2 and 8.7% of residents respectively. Meanwhile, 67.1% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show above average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 14.1% of residents aged 65 and over, which is around 1,422 people, lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, where 82.8% were born in Australia, 92.9% are citizens, and 87.7% speak English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Horsley, representing 58.1%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Horsley are Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Scottish (7.0%).

Notably, Macedonian (2.2%) is overrepresented in Horsley compared to the regional average of 0.4%. Similarly, Serbian representation stands at 0.7% in Horsley versus 0.2% regionally, and Maltese at 1.3% versus 0.4%.

Horsley's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Horsley is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and slightly younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The age group of 35-44 represents a strong 15.1% of the population in Horsley compared to Regional NSW, while the 65-74 cohort is less prevalent at 8.3%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.6% to 14.5%, whereas the 5-14 cohort has decreased from 16.1% to 14.8%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Horsley, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 67% (945 people), reaching a total of 2,358 from its current figure of 1,412.