Horsley

Horsley lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of May 2026, the population of the suburb of Horsley is estimated at around 9,476 people. This figure reflects an increase of 39 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,437 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 9,348 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025, and an additional 284 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,836 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Over the past decade, Horsley has demonstrated resilient growth patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 1.4%, outpacing the SA3 area. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Exceptional growth is predicted over this period, placing Horsley in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas. The suburb is expected to expand by 5,812 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 60.0% in total over the 16 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Horsley when compared nationally

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Horsley averaged approximately 76 new dwelling approvals annually. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 380 homes were approved, with an additional 30 approved so far in FY26. On average, about 0.7 people moved to the area for each dwelling built during these years, indicating that supply met or exceeded demand and supported population growth while offering greater buyer choice.

The average construction value of new homes was approximately $430,000, somewhat higher than regional norms due to quality-focused development. This financial year has seen $24.1 million in commercial approvals, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Horsley exhibited moderately higher new home approvals, with 29.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period. This maintained good buyer choice and supported existing property values.

Recent construction comprised approximately 55.0% detached houses and 45.0% townhouses or apartments, marking a significant shift from the current housing mix of predominantly houses (96.0%). This change reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. Horsley currently has an average population density of around 128 people per approval, indicating a low-density area. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the suburb is projected to gain approximately 5,684 residents by 2041. If current construction levels persist, housing supply may lag behind population growth, potentially intensifying buyer competition and underpinning price growth.

Horsley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of an area can significantly be influenced by changes in local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. In total, nine projects have been identified by AreaSearch that are likely to impact the area. Key projects include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), and West Dapto Urban Release Area. The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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AreaSearch assessment positions Horsley ahead of most Australian regions for employment performance

Horsley's workforce is skilled with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.9% as per AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. By December 2025, there were 4,800 residents employed at an unemployment rate of 1.1% below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Horsley was 66.7%, exceeding Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census responses indicated that 25.6% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Dominant employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Notably, finance & insurance had employment levels at 2.4 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing was under-represented with only 0.2% of Horsley's workforce compared to 5.3% in Regional NSW.

The area appeared to have limited local employment opportunities based on Census data comparison of working population versus resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, labour force levels decreased by 5.2%, while employment declined by 5.4%, resulting in a rise in unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2%, labour force fall by 0.8%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Horsley. These projections estimate national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with varying rates across industry sectors. Applying these projections to Horsley's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income levels align closely with national averages, indicating typical economic conditions for Australian communities according to AreaSearch analysis

The suburb of Horsley had an income level below the national average according to the latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $49,276 and the average income stood at $60,965. These figures compared to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $54,361 (median) and $67,257 (average) as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census figures, household income ranked at the 75th percentile ($2,164 weekly), while personal income sat at the 55th percentile. Income analysis revealed that the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominated with 37.6% of residents (3,562 people). High housing costs consumed 16.2% of income, but strong earnings placed disposable income at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 6th decile.

Horsley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Horsley, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.5% houses and 4.4% other dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and 'other' dwellings. This is compared to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley stood at 29.7%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (53.1%) or rented (17.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, above Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Horsley was recorded at $500, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Horsley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 85.4% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.0% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Educational attainment in Horsley aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding such qualifications - advanced diplomas account for 11.5% while certificates make up 32.4%.

Educational participation is high, with 31.5% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.6% in primary education, 9.2% in secondary education, and 3.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Public transport analysis shows 78 active transport stops operating within Horsley. These stops are served by 24 individual routes, collectively providing 620 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 159 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Horsley's primarily residential nature. Car remains the dominant mode of transport at 96%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.9 per dwelling, above the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high 25.6% of residents work from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions. Service frequency averages 88 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 7 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Horsley is lower than average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Horsley faces significant health challenges based on AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. The prevalence of common health conditions is high, with mental health issues and asthma impacting 9.2% and 8.7% of residents respectively. Approximately 51% (~4,839 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to the total population. A majority, 67.1%, declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Working-age residents show an above-average prevalence of chronic health conditions. The area has 13.8% (1,307 people) of residents aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley, found in a study conducted between July 2016 to June 2021, had cultural diversity roughly aligned with its wider region's average. The population born in Australia was 82.8%, citizens made up 92.9%, and those speaking English only at home were 87.7%. Christianity was the predominant religion in Horsley, accounting for 58.1% of residents, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Scottish (7.0%). Notably, Macedonian (2.2%) was overrepresented in Horsley versus the regional average (0.4%), as were Serbian (0.7%) and Maltese (1.3%).

Horsley's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Horsley is 36 years, which is significantly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's median age of 38 years. The 5-14 age group constitutes 15.3% of the population in Horsley, higher than that of Regional NSW. Conversely, the 75-84 age group makes up only 3.8% of the population in Horsley. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15-24 age group has increased from 13.6% to 14.9%, while the 55-64 age group has decreased from 11.4% to 9.9%. Population forecasts for the year 2041 suggest substantial demographic changes in Horsley, with the 45-54 age group expected to grow by 73% (an increase of 956 people), reaching a total of 2,274 from its current figure of 1,317.