Horsley

Horsley lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Horsley's population is estimated at around 10,115 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 678 people (7.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 9,437 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 9,186, estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 271 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,960 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Horsley's 7.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (5.1%), along with the SA3 area, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 78.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. As we examine future population trends, exceptional growth, placing in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas, is predicted over the period with the suburb expected to grow by 8,540 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 92.4% in total over the 17 years.

The level of residential development activity in Horsley was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis, Horsley has received around 74 dwelling approvals annually over the past five financial years from FY21 to FY25. This totals an estimated 370 homes. As of FY26, 13 approvals have been recorded. Each year, approximately 7.5 people move to the area for each dwelling built.

This high demand exceeds new supply, potentially driving price growth and increased buyer competition. The average construction cost value of new dwellings is $430,000, aligning with broader regional development. In FY26, commercial development approvals totalled $125,000, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to the rest of NSW, Horsley has slightly more development activity, at 27.0% above the regional average per person over the five-year period.

This balance supports buyer choice while maintaining current property values. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. The new building activity shows a mix of standalone homes (56.0%) and townhouses or apartments (44.0%), reflecting an increasing trend towards attached housing types to cater to diverse price ranges. The area currently has approximately 206 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Looking ahead, Horsley is projected to grow by 9,349 residents by 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. If current development rates continue, housing supply may not keep pace with population growth, potentially increasing buyer competition and supporting stronger price growth.

Horsley has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Nine projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area significantly. These include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), and West Dapto Road Upgrade. The following details those projected to have the most relevance.

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Employment conditions in Horsley demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Horsley's workforce is skilled with significant representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 2.6% over the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.6%.

As of June 2025, there were 5,843 employed residents, a 1.1% decrease from Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was high at 68.5%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key employment sectors included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Finance & insurance had notable concentration with levels at 2.4 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing employed just 0.2% of local workers, below Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The area offered limited local employment opportunities as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Over a 12-month period ending Sep-22, employment increased by 0.6%, labour force by 0.8%, raising unemployment by 0.2 percentage points. By comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Horsley's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localised population projections.

The economic profile demonstrates above-average performance, with income metrics exceeding national benchmarks based on AreaSearch comparative assessment

In AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Horsley's median income among taxpayers is $49,276. The average income in Horsley during this period was $60,965. This figure is lower than the national average. Comparing Horsley to Rest of NSW, the median income in Rest of NSW was $49,459 with an average of $62,998 for financial year 2022. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates would be approximately $55,490 (median) and $68,653 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, Horsley's household income ranks at the 75th percentile ($2,164 weekly), while personal income sits at the 55th percentile. The majority of residents, 37.6% or 3,803 people, fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket. This is consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region, where 29.9% of residents are in the same category. High housing costs consume 16.2% of income in Horsley. Despite this, disposable income ranks at the 75th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 6th decile.

Horsley is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Horsley's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 95.5% houses and 4.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Horsley stood at 29.7%, with the rest being mortgaged (53.1%) or rented (17.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. Median weekly rent in Horsley was $500, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Horsley's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,167 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Horsley features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.4% of all households, including 44.5% couples with children, 26.8% couples without children, and 13.4% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.0% and group households comprising 1.6%. The median household size is 3.0 people, which is larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Horsley aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 17.8%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 12.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.8%) and graduate diplomas (1.8%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 43.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (32.4%).

Educational participation is high at 31.5%, including primary education (11.6%), secondary education (9.2%), and tertiary education (3.8%). Dapto Public School, with an enrollment of 775 students, serves the Horsley area, offering typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1004) with balanced educational opportunities. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available nearby. School places per 100 residents are lower than the regional average at 7.7, indicating some students may attend schools in adjacent areas.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Horsley indicates that there are currently 73 active transport stops operating within the area. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, with a total of 24 individual routes providing service. Collectively, these routes facilitate 675 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Horsley is rated as excellent, with residents typically located an average of 159 meters from their nearest transport stop. On average, there are 96 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Horsley are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Horsley's health indicators show below-average outcomes, with common health conditions among its general population being somewhat typical but higher than the national average for older cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~5,165 people) of Horsley's total population has private health cover, which is relatively low. Mental health issues and asthma are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.2 and 8.7% of residents respectively. A higher proportion, 67.1%, declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to Rest of NSW's 63.9%. Horsley has a lower percentage of seniors aged 65 and over at 12.7% (1,284 people) than Rest of NSW's 19.0%. However, health outcomes among seniors in Horsley present challenges that require more attention than those for the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Horsley records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Horsley's cultural diversity aligns with its wider region, with 82.8% born in Australia, 92.9% being citizens, and 87.7% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Horsley at 58.1%, similar to Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (28.6%), English (28.4%), and Scottish (7.0%).

Notably, Macedonian, Serbian, and Maltese groups have different representations: Macedonian is higher at 2.2% in Horsley compared to the regional average of 3.8%, Serbian is lower at 0.7% versus 0.8%, and Maltese remains consistent at 1.3%.

Horsley's population is slightly younger than the national pattern

The median age in Horsley is 36 years, which is significantly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 years and somewhat younger than Australia's average of 38 years. The 35-44 age group comprises 15.6% of Horsley's population, compared to the Rest of NSW figure, while the 65-74 cohort makes up 7.7%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 11.7% to 12.7%, whereas the 55 to 64 cohort has decreased from 11.4% to 9.8%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Horsley, with the 35 to 44 age group expected to grow by 99%, reaching 3,143 people from 1,577.