Tullimbar

Tullimbar lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of Tullimbar is estimated at around 3,171. This reflects a growth of 1,331 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,840. The increase is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 2,591 following examination of ABS data released in June 2024 and an additional 335 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a density ratio of 684 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. Tullimbar's growth rate of 72.3% since the 2021 census exceeded that of Rest of NSW (5.9%) and its SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch's projections for Tullimbar, based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year, predict exceptional growth placing it in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas by 2041. The area is expected to grow by 1,326 persons over this period, reflecting an increase of 12.1% in total population.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tullimbar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Tullimbar has experienced around 71 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 358 homes were approved, with an additional 41 approved so far in FY-26. This results in an average of about 1.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over these five financial years.

The supply and demand dynamics seem well-matched, fostering stable market conditions. New properties are constructed at an average value of $444,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, $134,000 in commercial development approvals have been recorded, demonstrating the area's residential nature. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tullimbar records 355.0% more new home approvals per person, providing buyers with ample choice. However, building activity has slowed in recent years. This activity is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area.

Recent construction comprises 57.0% detached dwellings and 43.0% townhouses or apartments, showing an expanding range of medium-density options. This creates a mix of opportunities across price brackets, from traditional family housing to more affordable compact alternatives, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns which are currently 86.0% houses. With around 45 people per dwelling approval, Tullimbar shows characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate that Tullimbar will gain 383 residents through to 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Tullimbar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Area infrastructure changes significantly influence local performance. AreaSearch identified four projects potentially impacting the area: Tripoli Way Extension, Albion Park Rail Residential Development - Riverside Estate, Con O'Keefe and Russell Street Precinct Master Plan, Cascadia Calderwood. The following details projects likely most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Tullimbar demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Tullimbar's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.7% as of September 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.7%.

This rate is below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, with a workforce participation rate of 67.7% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. As of Census responses in September 2025, 27.9% of residents worked from home. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area shows notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.4% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, while labour force increased by 1.0%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.2 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Tullimbar. These projections estimate local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation of industry-specific growth rates against Tullimbar's employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released on 30 June 2023, the suburb of Tullimbar had a median income among taxpayers of $62,211 with the average level standing at $72,708. This is above the national average and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,723 (median) and $79,150 (average) as of September 2025. From the 2021 Census, household income ranks at the 77th percentile nationally in Tullimbar. Family income ranks at the 78th percentile and personal income ranks at the 79th percentile nationally. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 42.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,357 residents). This pattern is also seen regionally where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income in Tullimbar. However, strong earnings still place disposable income at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tullimbar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tullimbar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.1% houses and 13.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullimbar stood at 23.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Tullimbar was $520, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Tullimbar's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,383 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Tullimbar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.4% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Tullimbar exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives in the region. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 16.0% of residents holding such qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15 and above, with 46.9% having acquired them, including advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 34.2%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, comprising 11.3% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullimbar has 11 operational public transport stops serving a mix of bus routes. These are covered by five different routes offering 146 weekly passenger trips in total. Transport accessibility is rated highly, with residents typically residing 174 meters from the nearest stop. Predominantly residential, most commuters travel outward, primarily by car (97%). Vehicle ownership averages 1.7 per dwelling, exceeding regional norms. Notably, 27.9% of residents work from home (2021 Census).

Service frequency averages 20 trips daily across all routes, translating to roughly 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Tullimbar are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Tullimbar shows below-average health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment as of 17th June 2021. Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% (~1,764 people), compared to 51.9% across Rest of NSW. The most common conditions are asthma (9.0%) and mental health issues (8.7%). 68.6% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. Working-age population health outcomes are typical. 10.4% of residents are aged 65 and over (329 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges but rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tullimbar ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullimbar's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 86.2% of its population born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity is the main religion in Tullimbar, making up 54.8% of people, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (29.8%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (7.3%).

Notably, Spanish (1.0%) is overrepresented in Tullimbar compared to the regional average of 0.3%, as are Maltese (1.8% vs 0.4%) and Macedonian (0.8% vs 0.4%).

Tullimbar hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tullimbar's median age is 31, which is younger than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 and Australia's average of 38 years. The 35-44 age group constitutes 19.0% of Tullimbar's population compared to Rest of NSW, while the 55-64 cohort makes up 5.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.2% to 19.0%, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 7.2% to 5.6%, and the 45-54 group has dropped from 10.6% to 9.5%. By 2041, demographic projections indicate significant shifts in Tullimbar's age structure. The 35-44 age group is projected to grow by 23 people (from 602 to 743), while both the 55-64 and 85+ age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.