Tullimbar

Tullimbar lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of November 2025, Tullimbar's population is estimated at around 2,759 people, reflecting a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 1,840. This growth of 919 people (49.9%) is inferred from AreaSearch's validation of new addresses since the Census date and the resident population estimate of 2,546 based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024. The population density ratio stands at 595 persons per square kilometer. Tullimbar's growth rate exceeded that of both the non-metro area (5.1%) and its SA4 region since the 2021 Census, marking it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.0% to overall population gains during recent periods. AreaSearch projections for Tullimbar, based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a 2022 base year and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections for areas not covered by this data, indicate exceptional growth predicted over the period from 2025 to 2041.

The suburb is expected to grow by 1,309 persons by 2041, reflecting an increase of 28.4% in total over these 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tullimbar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Tullimbar has experienced around 73 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Over the past 5 financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, an estimated 368 homes were approved, with a further 23 so far in FY-26. On average, each dwelling constructed over this period has resulted in approximately 1.8 new residents per year.

This suggests a balance between supply and demand, contributing to stable market dynamics. The average construction value for these new properties is $444,000. In contrast, commercial approvals registered in FY-26 totalled $389,000, indicating minimal commercial development activity compared to residential growth. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Tullimbar exhibits 365.0% higher building activity per person, offering buyers ample choice. However, it is noted that building activity has slowed in recent years. This high level of activity is significantly greater than national averages, suggesting strong developer confidence in the location.

Recent construction comprises 60.0% detached dwellings and 40.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating a mix of opportunities across price brackets. This marks a significant shift from existing housing patterns, which are currently dominated by houses at 86.0%. This change may indicate diminishing developable land availability and a response to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. With around 35 people per dwelling approval, Tullimbar exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate that Tullimbar will gain approximately 784 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Tullimbar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may affect this region: Tripoli Way Extension, Albion Park Rail Residential Development - Riverside Estate, Con O'Keefe and Russell Street Precinct Master Plan, Cascadia Calderwood. The following details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Tullimbar demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Tullimbar has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Employment stability has been maintained over the past year. As of June 2025, 1,185 residents are employed, with an employment participation rate of 72.5%, higher than Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.4% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. Local employment opportunities may be limited based on Census data. Over the year to June 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, while labour force grew by 0.9%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.5 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.1%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase over five years and 13.8% over ten years for Tullimbar, based on its current employment mix.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2022, Tullimbar had a median income among taxpayers of $62,211. The average income in Tullimbar stood at $72,708 during this period. This is higher than the national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 for Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest approximately $70,056 as median income and $81,876 as average income by September 2025. The 2021 Census data ranks Tullimbar's household, family, and personal incomes highly nationally, between the 77th and 79th percentiles. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 42.8% of residents earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly, with 1,180 residents falling into this category. This pattern is also seen at regional levels where 29.9% of residents occupy this income range. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income in Tullimbar, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tullimbar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tullimbar's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.1% houses and 13.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullimbar was at 23.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $2,383, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Tullimbar was $520, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Tullimbar's median monthly mortgage repayment was significantly higher at $2,383 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and median weekly rent was substantially higher at $520 compared to the national figure of $375.

Tullimbar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.4% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Tullimbar exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates at 22.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 16.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 46.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 12.7% and certificates at 34.2%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education. Tullimbar Public School provides local educational services within Tullimbar, with an enrollment of 480 students as of the latest available data. The school focuses exclusively on primary education, with secondary options available in surrounding areas from 2022 onwards. School capacity exceeds typical residential needs (17.4 places per 100 residents vs 14.2 regionally), indicating that the area serves as an educational center for the broader region since 2015.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullimbar has 11 active public transport stops. All these stops are served by buses, with a total of 5 different routes operating. These routes combined offer 149 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility to public transport in Tullimbar is rated excellent, with residents on average being located 174 meters from the nearest stop. Each route runs an average of 21 trips per day, leading to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tullimbar's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Tullimbar residents have relatively positive health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among the general population. However, this prevalence is higher than the national average for older and at-risk cohorts.

Approximately 56% (~1,535 people) of Tullimbar's population has private health cover, which is higher than the Rest of NSW's rate of 52.7%. The most common medical conditions in the area are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.0 and 8.7% of residents respectively. Conversely, 68.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across Rest of NSW. As of October 2021, 10.4% (286 people) of Tullimbar's population is aged 65 and over, which is lower than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW. While health outcomes among seniors present some challenges requiring more attention than the broader population, overall health indicators for Tullimbar residents are positive.

Tullimbar ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullimbar's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 86.2% born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, accounting for 54.8%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.8%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (7.3%).

Notably, Spanish (1.0%) and Maltese (1.8%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively. Macedonian group was underrepresented at 0.8%, versus the regional average of 1.9%.

Tullimbar hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tullimbar is 32, which is notably lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 and also substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Rest of NSW, Tullimbar has a higher concentration of 25-34 year-olds at 18.2% but fewer 55-64 year-olds at 5.9%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 35-44 age group has grown from 16.2% to 18.3% of the population. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has declined from 7.2% to 5.9%. By 2041, Tullimbar is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 35-44 group will grow by 48%, adding 244 people and reaching 749 from 504. The 85+ group displays more modest growth at 9%, adding only 0 residents.