Tullimbar

Tullimbar lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on ABS population updates and AreaSearch validation, the population of Tullimbar is estimated at around 2,905 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,065 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,840. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimate of 2,795 residents following examination of ABS ERP data release in June 2025 and additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 627 persons per square kilometer. Tullimbar's growth rate of 57.9% since the 2021 census exceeded both Rest of NSW (4.9%) and its SA4 region, indicating it as a growth leader. Interstate migration contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year are used. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projected demographic shifts indicate exceptional growth, placing Tullimbar in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas. By 2041, the suburb is expected to grow by 1,156 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a total increase of 36.0% over the 16 years.

The level of residential development activity in Tullimbar was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, indicates Tullimbar has experienced around 70 dwellings receiving development approval per year. Approximately 351 homes have been approved over the past five financial years, between FY-21 and FY-25, with an additional 59 approved so far in FY-26. On average, 3.8 new residents are associated with each home built during these five years, suggesting demand significantly exceeds supply.

The average construction value of new properties is $444,000, slightly above the regional average, indicating a focus on quality developments. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $134,000, reflecting Tullimbar's residential nature. Comparatively, Tullimbar records 333.0% more new home approvals per person relative to Rest of NSW, offering buyers ample choice despite a recent slowdown in building activity. This activity is notably above the national average, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options and creating diverse housing opportunities across price brackets. Currently, Tullimbar has 86.0% houses, but with around 54 people per dwelling approval, it exhibits characteristics of a growth area.

Population forecasts estimate an increase of 1,046 residents by 2041. Given current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond projections.

Tullimbar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 30% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects that may impact this region: Tripoli Way Extension, Albion Park Rail Residential Development - Riverside Estate, Con O'Keefe and Russell Street Precinct Master Plan, Cascadia Calderwood. The following details the most relevant ones.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Tullimbar shows considerable strength compared to most other Australian regions

Tullimbar has a skilled labour force with significant representation in essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate was 3.8% as of December 2025, below Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 4.9%.

As of December 2025, 1,544 residents were employed with an unemployment rate of 0.1% below the regional average and workforce participation at 75.9%, higher than Regional NSW's 60.5%. Census data indicated that 27.9% of residents worked from home, potentially influenced by Covid-19 lockdowns. Leading employment industries were health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average, but agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.4%.

Over the year to December 2025, employment increased by 4.9% while labour force grew by 5.0%, leading to a slight rise in unemployment rate of 0.1 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contraction of 1.2%, labour force fall of 0.8%, and unemployment rise of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tullimbar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Tullimbar had a median income among taxpayers of $62,211 with an average level standing at $72,708. This is above the national average and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% from financial year ending June 2023 to March 2026, current estimates would be approximately $68,631 for median income and $80,211 for average income as of March 2026. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Tullimbar, between the 77th and 79th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 42.8% earning $1,500 - $2,999 weekly (1,243 residents), reflecting patterns seen at regional levels where 29.9% similarly occupy this range. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the 74th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tullimbar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

The dwelling structure in Tullimbar, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.1% houses and 13.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This is compared to Regional NSW's 86.1% houses and 13.9% other dwellings. The home ownership level in Tullimbar was at 23.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (56.9%) or rented (20.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Tullimbar was $2,383, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent figure for Tullimbar was recorded at $520, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tullimbar's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Tullimbar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.4% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 1.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Tullimbar exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than NSW's average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 46.9% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (34.2%). Educational participation is high at 30.8%, with 11.3% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Educational participation is notably high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullimbar has 11 active public transport stops, all bus services. These are covered by five routes offering 146 weekly passenger trips. Transport access is excellent with residents typically 174 metres from the nearest stop. Most commutes are outward-bound, with cars being the dominant mode at 97%. Average vehicle ownership per dwelling is 1.7, above the regional average. In 2021 Census data, 27.9% of residents worked from home, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

Service frequency averages 20 trips daily across all routes, equating to around 13 weekly trips per stop.

Health outcomes in Tullimbar are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Tullimbar's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,616 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The most common medical conditions are asthma and mental health issues, affecting 9.0 and 8.7% of residents respectively, while 68.6% report being completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 10.6% of residents aged 65 and over (307 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tullimbar ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullimbar's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 86.2% born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the prevalent religion, comprising 54.8%, compared to 55.9% regionally. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (29.8%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (7.3%).

Notably, Spanish (1.0%) and Maltese (1.8%) ethnicities were overrepresented in Tullimbar compared to Regional NSW's 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Macedonian ethnicity was also higher at 0.8%.

Tullimbar hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tullimbar is 32 years, which is notably lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 and also substantially under the Australian median of 38. Relative to Regional NSW, Tullimbar has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (17.8%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (6.9%). Between the 2021 Census and now, the age group of 35 to 44 has grown from 16.2% to 18.1% of the population. Conversely, the age group of 5 to 14 has declined from 15.2% to 14.4%. By 2041, Tullimbar is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the age group of 35 to 44 will grow by 51%, adding 267 people and reaching a total of 793 from the previous figure of 525.