Tullimbar

Tullimbar lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Feb 2026, the population of the suburb of Tullimbar is estimated at around 3,171. This reflects an increase of 1,331 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,840. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 2,591 as of June 2024, and an additional 335 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 684 persons per square kilometer. Tullimbar's growth rate of 72.3% since the 2021 census exceeded that of the Rest of NSW (5.9%). Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Considering these projections, exceptional growth is predicted for the suburb over the period from 2022 to 2041, with an expected increase of 1,343 persons by 2041, reflecting a total increase of 24.1%.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tullimbar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

Tullimbar has had approximately 70 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS data. Around 351 homes were approved between FY21-FY25, with an additional 42 in FY26 so far. Each year, about 1.8 new residents per dwelling have been added over the past five financial years.

The average construction cost for new properties is $444,000, slightly above the regional average. In FY26, there has been $134,000 in commercial development approvals. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tullimbar has 407.0% more new home approvals per person. The dwelling construction rate has slowed recently but remains well above national averages, indicating strong developer confidence. Recent developments consist of 59.0% detached dwellings and 41.0% townhouses or apartments, expanding medium-density options. This shift marks a departure from the current 86.0% houses in Tullimbar, suggesting limited developable land and responding to evolving lifestyle preferences and affordability needs.

With around 47 people per dwelling approval, Tullimbar exhibits growth area characteristics. Population forecasts estimate an increase of 763 residents by 2041 based on AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. Current development patterns suggest new housing supply should meet demand, offering favorable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating further population growth beyond current projections.

Tullimbar has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified four projects expected to influence the region: Tripoli Way Extension, Albion Park Rail Residential Development - Riverside Estate, Con O'Keefe and Russell Street Precinct Master Plan, Cascadia Calderwood. The following details those considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The employment environment in Tullimbar shows above-average strength when compared nationally

Tullimbar has a skilled workforce with notable representation in essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.8% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 0.7%.

This is lower than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%, but workforce participation is higher at 67.6%. A significant proportion, 27.9%, of residents work from home, although Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. The leading employment industries are health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area has a notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing, with employment levels at 1.8 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing shows lower representation at 0.4% versus the regional average of 5.3%. Local employment opportunities appear limited based on Census data comparing working population to resident population. Between December 2024 and December 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, while labour force increased by 0.8%, keeping the unemployment rate relatively stable at 0.2% below Regional NSW's rate. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia for May-25 suggest national employment will expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tullimbar's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Tullimbar had a median income among taxpayers of $62,211. The average income stood at $72,708. This is above the national average of $52,390 and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Regional NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $67,723 (median) and $79,150 (average) as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household incomes rank at the 77th percentile nationally, family incomes at the 78th percentile, and personal incomes at the 79th percentile in Tullimbar. Income brackets indicate that 42.8% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly (1,357 residents). This pattern is similar to regional levels where 29.9% occupy this income range. High housing costs consume 18.9% of income in Tullimbar. Despite this, strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tullimbar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

In Tullimbar, as per the latest Census evaluation, houses constituted 86.1% of dwellings, with the remaining 13.9% being semi-detached, apartments, or other types. This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullimbar stood at 23.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, higher than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Tullimbar was $520, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Tullimbar's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,383 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Tullimbar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 85.4% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households comprising 1.3% of the total. The median household size is 2.9 people, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

The educational profile of Tullimbar exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 16.0% of residents holding these qualifications, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 46.9% of residents aged 15 and above holding them, including advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (34.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education, including 11.3% in primary, 6.7% in secondary, and 4.1% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Tullimbar has 11 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by five different routes that together offer 146 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward due to Tullimbar being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 97% of residents. On average, there are 1.7 vehicles per dwelling, which is higher than the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, a high proportion of residents, 27.9%, work from home, potentially due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health outcomes in Tullimbar are marginally below the national average with the level of common health conditions among the general population somewhat typical, though higher than the nation's average among older cohorts

Tullimbar's health indicators show below-average outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. The level of common health conditions among the general population is somewhat typical but higher than the national average among older cohorts.

Private health cover rate is very high at approximately 56% of the total population (~1,764 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW. Asthma and mental health issues are the most common medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.0 and 8.7% of residents respectively. 68.6% of residents declare themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. Health outcomes among the working-age population are broadly typical. The area has 10.1% of residents aged 65 and over (320 people), which is lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, though they rank lower nationally than the broader population.

Tullimbar ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullimbar's population showed lower cultural diversity, with 86.2% born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 54.8%, compared to 55.9% regionally. Ancestry-wise, Australian (29.8%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (7.3%) were the top groups.

Notably, Spanish (1.0% vs regional 0.3%), Maltese (1.8% vs 0.4%), and Macedonian (0.8% vs 0.4%) groups were overrepresented in Tullimbar.

Tullimbar hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Tullimbar's median age is 31, which is younger than Regional NSW's figure of 43 and Australia's national average of 38. The 35-44 age group comprises 19.2%, compared to Regional NSW's figure, while the 55-64 cohort stands at 5.9%. Between 2021 and present day, the 35-44 age group has increased from 16.2% to 19.2%. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort has decreased from 7.2% to 5.9%. By 2041, projections indicate significant shifts in Tullimbar's age structure. The 35-44 group is expected to grow by 37%, reaching 832 people from the current 608. Meanwhile, the 85+ cohort is projected to grow by a modest 1%.