Tullimbar

Tullimbar lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch since the Census, Tullimbar's population is estimated at around 3,169 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,329 people (72.2%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 1,840 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 2,591 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 334 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 684 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by AreaSearch. Tullimbar's 72.2% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the non-metro area (5.7%), along with the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 79.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Considering the projected demographic shifts, exceptional growth is predicted over the period, placing Tullimbar (SA2) in the top 10 percent of national non-metropolitan areas. The area is expected to grow by 1,308 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an increase of 11.8% in total over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Tullimbar among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers indicates that Tullimbar has received around 71 dwelling approvals per year. Between FY-21 and FY-25, approximately 358 homes were approved, with an additional 41 so far in FY-26. This results in an average of 1.8 new residents per year per dwelling constructed over the past five financial years.

Commercial development approvals for this financial year total $134,000. Compared to Rest of NSW, Tullimbar has recorded 356.0% more new home approvals per person. Recent construction comprises 57.0% detached dwellings and 43.0% townhouses or apartments. This marks a shift from the current housing pattern of 86.0% houses. With around 45 people per dwelling approval, Tullimbar is considered a growth area. Population forecasts indicate an increase of 373 residents by 2041.

Current development patterns suggest that new housing supply should meet demand, potentially facilitating further population growth.

Tullimbar has strong levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 40% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified four projects likely impacting the area: Tripoli Way Extension, Albion Park Rail Residential Development - Riverside Estate, Con O'Keefe and Russell Street Precinct Master Plan, Cascadia Calderwood.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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The labour market in Tullimbar demonstrates typical performance when compared to similar areas across Australia

Tullimbar has a skilled workforce with well-represented essential services sectors. Its unemployment rate is 3.8%, with an estimated employment growth of 0.7% over the past year (AreaSearch data).

As of September 2025, 1,253 residents are employed, matching Rest of NSW's 3.8% unemployment rate and exceeding its workforce participation rate at 72.5%. Key industries include health care & social assistance, construction, retail trade, with notable concentration in transport, postal & warehousing (1.8 times regional average). Agriculture, forestry & fishing show lower representation at 0.4%. Over the year to September 2025, employment increased by 0.7%, labour force by 1.0%, raising unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points.

In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contraction (-0.5%), labour force fall (-0.1%), and unemployment rise (0.4%). State-level data to 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (-2,260 jobs), with state unemployment rate at 3.9%, favourably comparing to national rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Tullimbar's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.6% over five years and 13.8% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ending June 2023, Tullimbar had a median income among taxpayers of $62,211. The average income stood at $72,708. This is above the national average and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% from financial year ending June 2023 to September 2025, current estimates would be approximately $67,723 for median income and $79,150 for average income as of September 2025. From the Census conducted in August 2021, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Tullimbar, between the 77th and 79th percentiles nationally. Income brackets indicate that the largest segment comprises 42.8% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly (1,356 residents). High housing costs consume 18.9% of income, yet strong earnings place disposable income at the 74th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 7th decile.

Tullimbar is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Tullimbar's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 86.1% houses and 13.9% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Tullimbar was at 23.0%, with mortgaged dwellings at 56.9% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,383, above Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Weekly rent in Tullimbar was $520, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Tullimbar's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,383 versus the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Tullimbar features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 85.4% of all households, including 43.1% couples with children, 29.0% couples without children, and 12.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 14.6%, with lone person households at 13.4% and group households making up 1.3%. The median household size is 2.9 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

The educational profile of Tullimbar exceeds national averages, with above-average qualification levels and academic performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 22.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 16.0%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (2.6%). Trade and technical skills are prevalent, with 46.9% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas (12.7%) and certificates (34.2%).

Educational participation is high, with 30.8% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.3% in primary education, 6.7% in secondary education, and 4.1% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 11 active stops operating within Tullimbar, serving a mix of bus routes. These stops are covered by 5 individual routes, offering a total of 146 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents typically located 174 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 20 trips per day across all routes, resulting in approximately 13 weekly trips per individual stop.

Tullimbar's residents are healthier than average in comparison to broader Australia with prevalence of common health conditions quite low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Tullimbar residents show positive health outcomes overall.

Common health conditions are relatively low but higher among older, at-risk groups compared to national averages. Approximately 56% (~1763 people) have private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are asthma (9.0%) and mental health issues (8.7%). 68.6% of residents report no medical ailments, slightly higher than Rest of NSW at 65.2%. Residents aged 65 and over comprise 10.4% (329 people), lower than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors require more attention.

Tullimbar ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Tullimbar's population showed low cultural diversity, with 86.2% born in Australia, 92.8% being citizens, and 92.4% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, at 54.8%, compared to 57.3% regionally. The top three ancestral groups were Australian (29.8%), English (29.0%), and Scottish (7.3%).

Notably, Spanish (1.0%) and Maltese (1.8%) were overrepresented compared to regional figures of 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively. Macedonian, however, was underrepresented at 0.8% versus the regional figure of 1.9%.

Tullimbar hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

The median age in Tullimbar is 32 years, which is notably lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 years and also substantially under the Australian median of 38 years. Relative to Rest of NSW, Tullimbar has a higher concentration of residents aged 25-34 (18.2%) but fewer residents aged 55-64 (5.9%). Between June 2021 Census and present, the population aged 35 to 44 has grown from 16.2% to 18.3%. Conversely, the population aged 55 to 64 has declined from 7.2% to 5.9%. By 2041, Tullimbar is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition. Leading this demographic shift, the 35 to 44 age group is projected to grow by 29%, reaching 747 people from a current total of 579. Meanwhile, both the 15 to 24 and 85+ age groups are expected to see reduced numbers.