Shellharbour

Shellharbour has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Shellharbour's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 3,791 people. This figure reflects an increase of 271 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,520. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 3,656 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 50 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,553 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. The suburb of Shellharbour's growth of 7.7% since the 2021 census exceeded both the non-metro area's growth rate of 5.1% and the SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. This growth was primarily driven by interstate migration, contributing approximately 47.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over the period up to 2041, with the suburb expected to grow by 1,716 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections. This reflects a gain of 44.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Shellharbour when compared nationally

Shellharbour has had approximately 24 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis. Between FY-21 and FY-25, around 120 homes were approved, with another 5 in FY-26 as of now. Each dwelling built over these years attracted an average of 3.2 people to the area.

This high demand has led to supply shortages, potentially driving up prices and increasing competition among buyers. The average construction cost for new homes is $603,000, which is moderately above regional levels, suggesting quality construction focus. In FY-26, commercial development approvals totalled $5.6 million, indicating limited commercial development activity compared to residential growth. When compared to Rest of NSW and nationally, Shellharbour shows 75% of the construction activity per person and ranks at the 68th percentile respectively. Recent construction trends show a shift towards compact living: 20.0% detached houses and 80.0% townhouses or apartments.

This change from the current 69.0% house dominance suggests decreasing developable land availability and responds to evolving lifestyle preferences and housing affordability needs. Shellharbour's population growth is projected to add approximately 1,678 residents by 2041, according to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate. At current development rates, meeting this population growth with adequate housing supply may prove challenging, potentially intensifying buyer competition and supporting price increases.

Shellharbour has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects that may impact this region. Key projects include The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program, and New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services. Those most relevant are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

The employment landscape in Shellharbour shows performance that lags behind national averages across key labour market indicators

Shellharbour has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, lower than the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%.

Employment stability has been maintained over the past year. As of June 2025, 1,901 residents are employed, with an unemployment rate of 0.1% below the regional average and workforce participation similar at 56.4%. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training, while agriculture, forestry & fishing is lower at 0.2% compared to the regional average of 5.3%.

The predominantly residential area may offer limited local employment opportunities, indicated by the count of Census working population versus resident population. Over a 12-month period ending June 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, labour force by 0.6%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW's employment decline of 0.1%, labour force growth of 0.3%, and unemployment increase of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest potential future demand within Shellharbour. National employment is projected to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but growth rates vary significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Shellharbour's employment mix indicates local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not consider localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2022 indicates Shellharbour's median income among taxpayers is $47,319. The average income in Shellharbour during this period was $60,389. This is lower than the national average. In comparison, Rest of NSW had a median income of $49,459 and an average of $62,998 for the same financial year. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, estimated incomes as of September 2025 would be approximately $53,286 (median) and $68,004 (average). Census data shows household, family and personal incomes in Shellharbour rank modestly, between the 37th and 41st percentiles. The income bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 is dominant with 29.5% of residents (1,118 people). This pattern is similar to the region where 29.9% occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures in Shellharbour are severe, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 40th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 5th decile.

Shellharbour displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Shellharbour, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, consisted of 68.6% houses and 31.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour was 38.6%, with mortgaged dwellings at 28.2% and rented dwellings at 33.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,167, aligning with the Non-Metro NSW average. The median weekly rent figure was $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Shellharbour's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,167 versus Australia's $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Shellharbour has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 73.0% of all households, including 29.5% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 27.0%, with lone person households making up 24.4% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Shellharbour aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are common, with 41.4% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 30.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.0% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 7.9% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education. Shellharbour's 3 schools have a combined enrollment of 784 students. The area has typical Australian school conditions (ICSEA: 1024) with balanced educational opportunities. It includes 2 primary and 1 K-12 school. School capacity exceeds residential needs, indicating the area serves as an educational center for the broader region. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments, please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shellharbour has 32 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops are served by a mix of bus routes totalling 40 individual services. Together, these routes facilitate 784 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Shellharbour is rated as excellent, with residents typically located just 176 metres from the nearest stop. On average, there are 112 trips per day across all routes, which equates to approximately 24 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shellharbour is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Shellharbour faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts.

Approximately 51% (~1,927 people) have private health cover, which is relatively low compared to other areas. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (10.7%) and mental health issues (7.5%). Around 66.1% of residents report having no medical ailments, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW at 65.2%. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 22.7% (860 people) compared to 20.9% in the Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Shellharbour ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour's cultural diversity was found to be below average, with 84.4% of its population born in Australia and 92.4% being citizens. English is the language spoken at home by 92.2% of Shellharbour residents. Christianity is the predominant religion, comprising 60.8% of people, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW.

The top three ancestry groups in Shellharbour are English (30.0%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (8.7%). Notably, Spanish (1.3%) is overrepresented compared to the regional average of 1.0%, as are Macedonian (2.4% vs 1.9%) and Maltese (1.6% vs 1.3%).

Shellharbour hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shellharbour has a median age of 46, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly above the national norm of 38. The 55-64 age group comprises 17.2% of Shellharbour's population, compared to Rest of NSW's percentage, while the 5-14 cohort makes up 9.3%, which is less prevalent than in Rest of NSW. This concentration of the 55-64 age group is well above the national figure of 11.2%. Post-Census data from 2021 shows that the 15 to 24 age group has increased from 12.0% to 13.1% of Shellharbour's population, while the 5-14 cohort has declined from 10.7% to 9.3%. By 2041, Shellharbour is expected to see notable shifts in its age composition, with the 65 to 74 group growing by 56%, reaching 775 people from 496.