Shellharbour

Shellharbour has seen population growth performance typically on par with national averages when looking at short and medium term trends

Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by AreaSearch, Shellharbour's estimated population is around 4,613 as of Nov 2025. This reflects an increase of 1,093 people (31.1%) since the 2021 Census which reported a population of 3,520 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,480 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 50 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 1,890 persons per square kilometer, above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Shellharbour's growth exceeded the non-metro area (5.7%) and SA4 region, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth was primarily driven by interstate migration contributing approximately 47.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration were positive factors.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, exceptional growth is predicted over the period with the area expected to grow by 1,703 persons to 2041 based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting a gain of 18.3% in total over the 17 years.

Recent residential development output has been above average within Shellharbour when compared nationally

Shellharbour has seen approximately 38 dwelling approvals annually based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS data. Over the past five financial years, from FY21 to FY25, around 193 homes were approved, with an additional 24 approved in FY26 so far. On average, about two people have moved to the area for each dwelling built over these years.

This indicates a balanced supply and demand, maintaining stable market conditions. The average construction cost value of new homes is $603,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market with high-end developments. Commercial development approvals this year totalled $4.9 million, indicating limited commercial focus. Comparatively, Shellharbour has shown moderately higher construction activity than the Rest of NSW over the past five years, at 22.0% above the regional average per person. This preserves buyer options and sustains property demand, though recent activity has eased slightly. Notably, Shellharbour's activity is significantly above the national average, indicating strong developer interest.

New building activity in Shellharbour comprises 24.0% standalone homes and 76.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the current housing mix of 69.0% houses reflects reduced development site availability and addresses changing lifestyle demands and affordability requirements. With around 201 people per dwelling approval, Shellharbour exhibits growth area characteristics. Future projections estimate Shellharbour will add approximately 843 residents by 2041, based on the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing favourable conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Shellharbour has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 11 projects likely to impact the area. Notable projects include The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program, and Performing Arts, Convention and Cultural Centre. Relevant projects are listed below.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Shellharbour has seen below average employment performance when compared to national benchmarks

Shellharbour, as of September 2025, has an unemployment rate of 3.9%. This is similar to the Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

The workforce participation rate in Shellharbour is also comparable to that of Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Key employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and education & training. Agriculture, forestry & fishing, however, is under-represented with only 0.2% of the workforce compared to 5.3% in Rest of NSW.

Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.1%, labour force rose by 0.5%, leading to an unemployment rise of 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment decrease by 0.5% over the same period. Statewide, in NSW, employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs) as of 25-Nov-25, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Nationally, the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Shellharbour's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by approximately 6.5% over five years and 13.6% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only and does not account for localized population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

The suburb of Shellharbour had a median taxpayer income of $47,319 and an average income of $60,389 in the latest postcode level ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for the financial year 2023. This was below the national average, with Rest of NSW having a median income of $52,390 and an average income of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Shellharbour would be approximately $51,511 (median) and $65,739 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Shellharbour ranked modestly, between the 37th and 41st percentiles. Income analysis showed that the predominant cohort consisted of 29.5% of locals (1,360 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category, which was consistent with broader trends across the surrounding region where 29.9% fell into the same category. Housing affordability pressures were severe, with only 82.4% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 40th percentile. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 5th decile.

Shellharbour displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Dwelling structure in Shellharbour, as evaluated at the Census conducted on 28 August 2016, comprised 68.6% houses and 31.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shellharbour was at 38.6%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (28.2%) or rented (33.2%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in Shellharbour was $2,167, aligning with Non-Metro NSW's average. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $420, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Shellharbour's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Shellharbour has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 73.0% of all households, including 29.5% couples with children, 31.3% couples without children, and 11.5% single parent families. Non-family households make up 27.0%, with lone person households at 24.4% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational attainment in Shellharbour aligns closely with national averages, showing typical qualification patterns and performance metrics

The area's university qualification rate is 18.9%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.5%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.4% of residents aged 15+, with advanced diplomas at 10.9% and certificates at 30.5%. Educational participation is high, with 26.0% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 7.9% in primary, 7.8% in secondary, and 3.6% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shellharbour has 36 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 40 different routes that together facilitate 761 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from residents to the nearest transport stop is 176 meters.

On average, there are 108 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Shellharbour is lower than average with common health conditions somewhat prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts

Shellharbour faces significant health challenges with common health conditions prevalent across both younger and older age cohorts. The rate of private health cover is relatively low at approximately 51% of the total population (~2,345 people), compared to 53.8% across Rest of NSW.

The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 10.7 and 7.5% of residents respectively. Sixty-six point one percent declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across Rest of NSW. Twenty-two point eight percent of residents are aged 65 and over (1,051 people), higher than the 20.9% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are above average, performing better than the general population in health metrics.

Shellharbour ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shellharbour, as per the census conducted on 27 June 2016, showed lower cultural diversity with 84.4% of its population born in Australia, 92.4% being citizens, and 92.2% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion, comprising 60.8%, compared to 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.0%), Australian (27.7%), and Irish (8.7%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Macedonian (2.4%) groups were overrepresented in Shellharbour compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Maltese also had a higher representation at 1.6%.

Shellharbour hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Shellharbour has a median age of 46, which is higher than Rest of NSW's figure of 43 and significantly higher than Australia's national norm of 38. The age group of 55-64 shows strong representation in Shellharbour at 17.3%, compared to Rest of NSW, while the 5-14 cohort is less prevalent at 9.4%. This concentration of the 55-64 age group is well above the national average of 11.2%. According to post-2021 Census data, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 12.0% to 13.1%, while the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 10.7% to 9.4%. By 2041, Shellharbour is expected to experience notable shifts in its age composition. The 75 to 84 age group is projected to grow by 52%, reaching 518 people from the current figure of 341. This growth reflects an aging population dynamic, with those aged 65 and above comprising 51% of the projected growth. Conversely, numbers in the 15 to 24 age range are expected to fall by 22%.