Mount Warrigal

Mount Warrigal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Mount Warrigal's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 4,896 people. This figure reflects an increase from the 2021 Census count of 4,880 people, a change inferred from AreaSearch's resident population estimate of 4,890 based on the latest ABS ERP data release in June 2024 and five additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This population density equates to 2,576 persons per square kilometer, placing Mount Warrigal in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods for the suburb. AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

These projections indicate a decline in overall population for Mount Warrigal by 37 persons by 2041, despite anticipated growth in specific age cohorts, notably the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 119 people.

The level of residential development activity in Mount Warrigal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Mount Warrigal received around 10 dwelling approvals per year over the past 5 financial years, totalling an estimated 53 homes. In FY26 so far, 3 approvals have been recorded. The area has experienced population decline, with housing supply adequate relative to demand, creating a balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average cost of $386,000, below the regional average, suggesting affordable housing options.

This financial year, $745,000 in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating a predominantly residential focus. Compared to Rest of NSW, Mount Warrigal shows reduced construction activity, 76.0% below the regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Recent construction comprises 27.0% standalone homes and 73.0% medium and high-density housing, attracting downsizers, investors, and first-time purchasers. The location has approximately 615 people per dwelling approval, demonstrating an established market. Future projections show Mount Warrigal adding 6 residents by 2041, with current development rates comfortably meeting demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Future projections show Mount Warrigal adding 6 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting growth beyond current population projections.

Mount Warrigal has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area at present. No projects have been identified by AreaSearch that could impact the region. Key initiatives include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program from 2021-2023, Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan slated for completion in 2024, and New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services expected to open in late 2025.

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Employment conditions in Mount Warrigal face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Mount Warrigal has a balanced workforce with representation across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well-represented in the area.

In June 2025, the unemployment rate was 12.7%, indicating room for improvement compared to Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Employment grew by 1.4% over the past year. As of June 2025, there were 1,906 residents in work, with an unemployment rate of 9.1% above the regional average. Workforce participation in Mount Warrigal is lower at 50.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%.

Key employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.2% versus the regional average of 5.3%. The area offers limited local employment opportunities as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in Sep-22, employment increased by 1.4%, and labour force grew by 0.9%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1% during this period. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 project a 6.6% increase in employment over five years and 13.7% over ten years nationally. Applying these projections to Mount Warrigal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Mount Warrigal's median income among taxpayers was $51,230 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $62,830 during the same period. These figures compare to national averages of $49,459 and $62,998 respectively for Rest of NSW. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 12.61% since financial year 2022, current estimates suggest a median income of approximately $57,690 and an average income of around $70,753 as of September 2025. Census data indicates that incomes in Mount Warrigal fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. The predominant income cohort spans 31.0% of locals (1,517 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the regional trend where 29.9% fall into this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mount Warrigal, with only 82.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Mount Warrigal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

In Mount Warrigal, as per the latest Census evaluation, 98.0% of dwellings were houses with the remaining 2.0% consisting of semi-detached housing, apartments, and other types. This is in contrast to Non-Metro NSW where 79.0% of dwellings are houses and 21.0% are other types. Home ownership in Mount Warrigal stood at 43.3%, with mortgaged properties at 30.5% and rented dwellings at 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than the Non-Metro NSW average of $2,167. The median weekly rent in Mount Warrigal was $405, compared to $430 in Non-Metro NSW. Nationally, Mount Warrigal's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 against the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were also higher at $405 compared to the national figure of $375.

Mount Warrigal features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 77.4% of all households, broken down into couples with children (28.6%), couples without children (30.3%), and single parent families (17.2%). Non-family households account for the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the Rest of NSW average.

Mount Warrigal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.0%). Educational participation is high at 26.2%, comprising primary education (10.4%), secondary education (6.9%), and tertiary education (2.5%).

Mount Warrigal Public School serves the area with an enrollment of 190 students, operating under varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 887) and focusing exclusively on primary education. Secondary options are available in nearby areas. The local school capacity is limited at 3.9 places per 100 residents compared to the regional average of 14.2, leading many families to travel for schooling.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis indicates 43 active public transport stops in Mount Warrigal, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that collectively facilitate 434 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of these services is rated as excellent, with residents typically situated 142 meters from the nearest stop.

On average, there are 62 trips per day across all routes, which translates to approximately 10 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Mount Warrigal is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mount Warrigal faces significant health challenges, with common conditions prevalent across both younger and older age groups.

Private health cover stands at approximately 52% (~2,536 people), slightly lower than the average SA2 area. The most frequent medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (9.1%). Conversely, 61.2% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 23.5% (1,150 people), compared to the state average of 20.9%. Health outcomes among seniors present challenges broadly aligned with the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Warrigal records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Warrigal's population, born in Australia, is 81.0%. Citizenship stands at 90.1%, with English spoken exclusively at home by 87.6%. Christianity is the predominant religion, at 58.8%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW average (57.3%).

Ancestry shows Australian descent at 27.1%, followed by English at 27.1% and Other at 6.6%. Spanish ancestry is overrepresented at 1.3% compared to the regional average of 1.0%. Hungarian ancestry is also higher than average, at 0.5% versus 0.3%. Macedonian ancestry stands at 2.0%, slightly above the regional figure of 1.9%.

Mount Warrigal hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

Mount Warrigal's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 years but considerably older than Australia's median age of 38 years. The age profile shows that the 75-84 year-olds are particularly prominent at 8.8%, while the 55-64 group is smaller at 11.6% compared to Rest of NSW. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 25 to 34 has grown from 11.4% to 12.1%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 age group has declined from 11.9% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for Mount Warrigal in the year 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes. The 25 to 34 cohort is projected to grow by 18%, adding 105 residents to reach a total of 698. In contrast, population declines are projected for the 45 to 54 and 65 to 74 age cohorts.