Mount Warrigal

Mount Warrigal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Mount Warrigal's population, as of November 2025, is estimated at around 4,895 people. This reflects an increase since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,880 people. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population being 4,884 as of June 2024, along with five additional validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population translates to a density ratio of 2,576 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods for Mount Warrigal statistical area (Lv2).

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Projections indicate a decline in overall population over this period, with the area's population expected to shrink by 37 persons by 2041. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to grow by 119 people.

The level of residential development activity in Mount Warrigal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Mount Warrigal has seen approximately 10 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 51 homes. In the current financial year, FY-26, four approvals have been recorded to date. The area's population decline has maintained adequate housing supply relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice.

New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost of $386,000. Mount Warrigal has also registered $1.3 million in commercial approvals this financial year. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Mount Warrigal shows significantly reduced construction activity, 77.0% below the regional average per person. This scarcity typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, Mount Warrigal's construction levels are also lower, reflecting market maturity and possible development constraints. Recent construction in Mount Warrigal comprises 20.0% standalone homes and 80.0% medium to high-density housing. This shift from the area's current housing stock (98.0% houses) indicates decreasing availability of developable sites and reflects changing lifestyles and demand for diverse, affordable housing options.

Mount Warrigal has approximately 579 people per dwelling approval, indicating an established market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the location is projected to add seven residents by 2041. At current development rates, new housing supply should comfortably meet demand, providing good conditions for buyers and potentially supporting population growth beyond current projections.

Mount Warrigal has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No changes can significantly affect a region's performance like modifications to local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified zero projects that are expected to impact the area. Key projects comprise Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program (commencing 20th April 2021), Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan (commenced July 2020), and New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services (scheduled completion June 2023). The following list details those projects likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Mount Warrigal face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Mount Warrigal has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment. Essential services sectors are well represented in the area, which had an unemployment rate of 14.2% as of September 2025.

The unemployment rate was 10.4% above Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%, indicating room for improvement. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 50.8%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. The area had particularly notable concentration in construction, with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.2% versus the regional average of 5.3%. The predominantly residential area appeared to offer limited employment opportunities locally, as indicated by the count of Census working population vs resident population. Over a 12-month period ending in September 2025, employment increased by 0.5%, while labour force increased by 0.2%, causing the unemployment rate to fall by 0.2 percentage points. This contrasted with Rest of NSW, where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. To provide broader context, state-level data as of 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Mount Warrigal. These projections estimated that national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mount Warrigal's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, based on a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Mount Warrigal's median income among taxpayers was $51,230 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $62,830 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which had median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest the median income will be approximately $55,769 and the average income around $68,397, based on a Wage Price Index growth rate of 8.86%. Census data shows that household, family, and personal incomes in Mount Warrigal all fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 31.0% of locals (1,517 people) earning between $1,500 and $2,999, mirroring the regional trend where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mount Warrigal, with only 82.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Mount Warrigal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mount Warrigal's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 78.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Warrigal was at 43.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.5% and rented ones at 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167, while the median weekly rent figure was $405, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $370. Nationally, Mount Warrigal's mortgage repayments were higher at $1,950 versus Australia's average of $1,863, and rents exceeded the national figure of $375 at $405.

Mount Warrigal features high concentrations of family households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 77.4% of all households, including 28.6% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households making up 1.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Mount Warrigal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common among qualified residents at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding them, including advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.0%). Educational participation is high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 46 active stops operating in Mount Warrigal, with a mix of bus services. These stops are served by 27 individual routes, offering a total of 456 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated excellent, with residents located an average of 142 meters from the nearest stop.

Service frequency averages 65 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mount Warrigal is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mount Warrigal faces significant health challenges, as indicated by its health data. Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions.

Approximately 52% (~2,535 people) of Mount Warrigal's total population has private health cover, which is relatively low compared to the 53.8% across the Rest of NSW. The most prevalent medical conditions in the area are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 11.1% and 9.1% of residents respectively. Conversely, 61.2% of residents report being completely free from medical ailments, compared to 65.2% across the Rest of NSW. Mount Warrigal has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, with 23.5% (1,150 people) compared to the 20.9% in the Rest of NSW. The health outcomes among seniors in Mount Warrigal present challenges broadly aligned with those of the general population's health profile.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Warrigal records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Warrigal's population, born in Australia, is 81.0%. Citizenship stands at 90.1%, with English spoken exclusively at home by 87.6%. Christianity is the predominant religion, practiced by 58.8%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW average of 57.3%.

Ancestry shows Australian origin at 27.1%, English at 27.1%, and Other at 6.6%. Notably, Spanish ancestry is overrepresented at 1.3% compared to the regional 1.0%, Hungarian at 0.5% (regional 0.3%), and Macedonian at 2.0% (regional 1.9%).

Mount Warrigal's median age exceeds the national pattern

Mount Warrigal's median age is 42 years, similar to Rest of NSW's average of 43 but older than Australia's average of 38 years. The age profile shows that residents aged 75-84 are prominent at 8.8%, while those aged 55-64 comprise a smaller proportion at 11.6% compared to the Rest of NSW figure. Between 2021 and present, the population aged 25-34 has grown from 11.4% to 12.1%. Conversely, the population aged 45-54 has declined from 11.9% to 10.7%. By 2041, Mount Warrigal's demographic forecasts indicate significant changes. The 25-34 age group is projected to grow by 18%, adding 105 residents to reach a total of 698. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 45-54 and 65-74 age groups.