Mount Warrigal

Mount Warrigal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

Mount Warrigal's population is estimated at around 4,895 as of Feb 2026. This reflects an increase of 15 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,880 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 4,884 estimated by AreaSearch following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024 and an additional 5 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 2,576 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for the suburb was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, as released in 2024 with 2022 as the base year. For any SA2 areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch is utilising the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections, as released in 2022 with 2021 as the base year. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are also applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Over this period, projections indicate a decline in overall population, with the suburb's population expected to shrink by 37 persons by 2041 according to this methodology. However, growth across specific age cohorts is anticipated, led by the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to grow by 122 people.

The level of residential development activity in Mount Warrigal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch

Based on AreaSearch analysis using ABS building approval numbers from statistical area data, Mount Warrigal has received approximately 10 dwelling approvals per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 51 homes. In FY-26 so far, four approvals have been recorded. Despite population decline in the area, housing supply has remained adequate relative to demand, resulting in a balanced market with good buyer choice. The average expected construction cost value for new dwellings is $386,000.

This financial year, $1.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, indicating the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Mount Warrigal shows significantly reduced construction activity (77.0% below regional average per person), which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. Nationally, this is also lower, reflecting market maturity and potential development constraints. New building activity consists of 20.0% detached houses and 80.0% attached dwellings, demonstrating a trend towards denser development that caters to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant shift from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (98.0%). With approximately 579 people per approval, Mount Warrigal shows characteristics of a mature, established area. Given stable or declining population forecasts, the area may experience less housing pressure in the future, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Given stable or declining population forecasts, Mount Warrigal may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.

Mount Warrigal has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

No infrastructure changes are anticipated in the area at present. Zero projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the region. Notable initiatives include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program (scheduled for completion 15-07-2023), Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan (expected to commence 01-08-2024), and New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services project (projected start date 01-06-2025).

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Employment conditions in Mount Warrigal face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Mount Warrigal has a balanced workforce across white and blue collar jobs. Essential services sectors are well represented with an unemployment rate of 14.2% as of September 2025. The area saw estimated employment growth of 0.8% over the past year based on AreaSearch data aggregation.

As of September 2025, 1,903 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 10.3% higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation lags at 55.6%, compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%. According to Census responses, 18.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered. Leading employment industries among residents include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.

Construction shows notable concentration with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.2% versus the regional average of 5.3%. The area appears to offer limited local employment opportunities based on Census working population vs resident population data. Over the 12 months to September 2025, employment increased by 0.8% while labour force increased by 0.4%, resulting in a fall in unemployment by 0.3 percentage points. This contrasts with Rest of NSW where employment contracted by 0.5%, labour force fell by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 suggest potential future demand within Mount Warrigal. These projections estimate national employment growth at 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these industry-specific projections to Mount Warrigal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years, though this is a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes and does not account for localised population projections.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

Mount Warrigal's median income among taxpayers was $51,230 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $62,830 during the same period. This compares to figures for Rest of NSW which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $55,769 (median) and $68,397 (average) as of September 2025. Census data reveals household, family and personal incomes in Mount Warrigal all fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 31.0% of locals (1,517 people) with incomes in the $1,500 - 2,999 category. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 82.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.

Mount Warrigal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership

Mount Warrigal's dwellings, according to the latest Census, were 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Non-Metro NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Warrigal was at 43.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.5% and rented ones at 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Mount Warrigal was $405, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Mount Warrigal's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.

Mount Warrigal features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 77.4% of all households, including 28.6% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 1.7% of the total. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.4.

Mount Warrigal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Vocational credentials are held by 41.8% of residents aged 15 and above, with advanced diplomas at 9.8% and certificates at 32.0%. Educational participation is high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.4% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Mount Warrigal has 46 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together facilitate 456 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living just 142 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outside Mount Warrigal, primarily using cars (95%). On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling. According to the 2021 Census, 18.5% of residents work from home, which may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 65 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per stop.

Health performance in Mount Warrigal is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Mount Warrigal faces substantial health challenges according to AreaSearch's assessment.

Mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are notable across both younger and older age cohorts. Private health cover is relatively low at approximately 52% of the total population (~2,535 people). The most common medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, impacting 11.1% and 9.1% of residents respectively. 61.2% of residents declared themselves completely clear of medical ailments compared to 63.3% across Rest of NSW. Working-age population faces notable health challenges with elevated chronic condition rates. The area has 23.6% of residents aged 65 and over (1,155 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly in line with the general population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Warrigal records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Mount Warrigal's population, born in Australia, was 81.0%. Citizenship stood at 90.1%, with English spoken exclusively at home by 87.6%. Christianity was the dominant religion at 58.8%, compared to 55.9% regionally.

Top ancestral groups were Australian (27.1%), English (27.1%), and Other (6.6%). Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Hungarian (0.5%) populations exceeded regional averages of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Macedonian ancestry was also higher at 2.0%.

Mount Warrigal's median age exceeds the national pattern

Mount Warrigal's median age is 41 years, which is lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but exceeds the national average of 38. The 25-34 age group comprises 12.6% of Mount Warrigal's population, higher than the Rest of NSW figure. Conversely, the 55-64 cohort makes up 11.4%, lower than the Rest of NSW percentage. According to post-2021 Census data, the 25-34 age group has increased from 11.4% to 12.6%. Meanwhile, the 45-54 cohort has decreased from 11.9% to 10.4%, and the 55-64 group has fallen from 12.6% to 11.4%. Demographic modeling indicates significant changes in Mount Warrigal's age profile by 2041. The 25-34 cohort is projected to grow strongly, adding 90 residents to reach 707. Conversely, population declines are forecast for the 5-14 and 65-74 cohorts.