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This analysis uses Suburbs and Localities (SAL) boundaries, which can materially differ from Statistical Areas (SA2) even when sharing the same name.
SAL boundaries are defined by Australia Post and the Australian Bureau of Statistics to represent commonly-known suburb names used in postal addresses.
Statistical Areas (SA2) are designed for census data collection and may combine multiple suburbs or use different geographic boundaries. For comprehensive analysis, consider reviewing both boundary types if available.
est. as @ -- *
2021 Census | -- people
Sales Activity
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Sales Detail
Population
Mount Warrigal has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch
The population of Mount Warrigal is estimated at approximately 4,854 as of May 2026. This figure represents a decrease from the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,880. The current estimate is based on AreaSearch's validation of new addresses and examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025. This results in a resident population of 4,849 plus an additional 9 validated new addresses since the Census date. Mount Warrigal's population density stands at 2,554 persons per square kilometer, placing it in the upper quartile relative to other locations assessed by AreaSearch.
Overseas migration contributed approximately 56.99999999999999% of overall population gains during recent periods for the suburb. AreaSearch's projections for Mount Warrigal are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to Mount Warrigal for the years 2032 to 2041. According to these projections, the suburb's population is expected to decline by 27 persons by 2041. However, specific age cohorts are anticipated to grow, notably the 25 to 34 age group, which is projected to increase by 98 people over this period.
Frequently Asked Questions - Population
Development
The level of residential development activity in Mount Warrigal is very low in comparison to the average area assessed nationally by AreaSearch
AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Mount Warrigal has experienced around 10 dwellings receiving development approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 50 homes. As of FY-26, 5 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline has resulted in adequate housing supply relative to demand, creating a well-balanced market with good buyer choice. New dwellings are developed at an average expected construction cost value of $386,000.
This financial year, $1.3 million in commercial approvals have been registered, reflecting the area's residential nature. Compared to Rest of NSW, Mount Warrigal shows substantially reduced construction activity, with 77.0% below regional average per person, which typically strengthens demand and prices for existing properties. This is also lower than nationally, indicating market maturity and possible development constraints. New building activity consists of 20.0% detached houses and 80.0% attached dwellings, appealing to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This trend reflects reduced availability of development sites and addresses shifting lifestyle demands and affordability requirements, marking a considerable change from the current housing mix of 98.0% houses. Mount Warrigal shows a mature, established area with around 610 people per approval. Given stable or declining population forecasts, the area may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.
Given stable or declining population forecasts, Mount Warrigal may experience less housing pressure, creating favourable conditions for buyers.
Frequently Asked Questions - Development
Development applications around Mount Warrigal
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| Lodged | Address | Description | Type | Distance | Status |
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SOURCE: Planning portals and council registers, compiled by AreaSearch. Distance & bearing measured from the suburb midpoint.
Infrastructure
Mount Warrigal has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally
No infrastructure changes are expected in this area, as AreaSearch has identified zero projects that could impact it. Key initiatives include Warilla Beach Seawall Renewal, Shellharbour Mobile Tiny Homes Pilot Program (scheduled for completion on 31st March 2023), Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan (commenced on 1st January 2022 and expected to finish by 31st December 2025), and New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services (planned to commence on 1st July 2024).
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Frequently Asked Questions - Infrastructure
Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan
The Shellharbour City Centre Masterplan is a 125-hectare state-led rezoning project aimed at transforming the CBD into a high-density economic and social hub. The proposal facilitates approximately 5,000 new homes, including key worker and social housing, through the redevelopment of the former Shellharbour Hospital and TAFE sites. As of May 2026, the project is advancing toward the public exhibition of the rezoning proposal scheduled for Q2 2026, with finalisation targeted for late 2026 to support the Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Plan 2041.
New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services
A $782 million major health infrastructure project delivering a new seven-storey greenfield hospital at Dunmore. Key features include an expanded emergency department with a rooftop helipad, specialized elective surgery theatres, mental health inpatient units, and comprehensive outpatient services. The project also encompasses the new Warrawong Community Health Centre and upgrades to Wollongong and Bulli Hospitals to enhance the Illawarra Shoalhaven health network.
Illawarra Renewable Energy Zone
NSW's first urban Renewable Energy Zone is in early planning, with EnergyCo coordinating development of a declared REZ intended to provide 1 GW of network capacity. Current work focuses on community and industry engagement, network planning with Endeavour Energy, use of existing energy, port and transport infrastructure, and integration of rooftop solar, batteries, community-scale batteries and future low-carbon industries such as green hydrogen and green steel.
Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy
Comprehensive NSW state planning reforms designed to increase housing density in well-located areas. The policy mandates mid-rise apartment buildings (3-6 storeys) and low-rise multi-dwelling housing (terraces, townhouses, and dual occupancies) within 800m of 171 high-frequency transport hubs and town centres. As of May 2026, the policy is fully operational following the phased rollout of dual occupancy provisions in July 2024 and mid-rise apartment provisions in early 2025. Recent updates include refined floor space ratios (FSR) and non-refusal standards to streamline local council assessments.
West Dapto Urban Release Area
The West Dapto Urban Release Area is a multi-decade growth project designed to deliver 19,500 new dwellings for approximately 60,000 residents. Spanning 4,700 hectares, the development includes eight future centers with major hubs at Bong Bong, Darkes, and Marshall Mount. As of May 2026, Stage 1 of the Cleveland Road upgrade (widening to four lanes) is complete. Major construction continues on West Dapto Road, which is undergoing extensive widening, culvert works, and utility relocation, with a scheduled reopening in mid-2026. The project is supported by a $1.57 billion infrastructure contribution plan focused on stormwater, transport, and community facilities.
Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone
The Illawarra Offshore Wind Zone is a 1,022 square kilometre area of Commonwealth waters in the Pacific Ocean, located at least 20 km offshore between Wombarra and Kiama in New South Wales. It was officially declared by the Minister for Climate Change and Energy on 15 June 2024 as Australia's fourth offshore wind zone. The zone has a potential generation capacity of around 2.9 GW, theoretically enough to power approximately 1.8 million homes, and was projected to support an estimated 1,740 construction jobs and 870 ongoing jobs. Due to a sharp drop in water depths off the coast, only floating wind turbine technology is considered viable for the zone. Feasibility licence applications were open from 17 June to 15 August 2024. Initial proponents Oceanex Energy and Equinor opted not to apply, instead focusing on the Hunter Offshore Wind Zone where they were awarded a feasibility licence for the Novocastrian project. Spanish developer BlueFloat Energy became the sole feasibility licence applicant but formally withdrew its application in January 2026, citing global commercial pressures and the wind-down of its Australian operations by parent Quantum Capital. On 23 January 2026, the Federal Government confirmed no feasibility licences would be granted in the Illawarra zone. The zone remains declared and could reopen for feasibility applications if competitive interest returns. In the meantime, the area is open for Research and Demonstration (R&D) licence applications to trial offshore renewable technologies including floating wind, wave and tidal current systems.
Mariyung Fleet (New Intercity Fleet)
The Mariyung Fleet is a 610-carriage double-deck electric train fleet (D sets) replacing the ageing V-set and Oscar fleets across the NSW intercity network. Delivered by the RailConnect NSW consortium (UGL, Hyundai Rotem, Mitsubishi Electric Australia), the trains feature wider 2x2 seating with arm rests, tray tables and cup holders, charging ports, dedicated luggage, pram and bicycle spaces, accessible toilets, dedicated wheelchair spaces, CCTV, digital information screens and Automatic Selective Door Operation. The fleet operates in 4, 6, 8 or 10-car formations. Passenger services commenced on the Central Coast & Newcastle Line on 3 December 2024, on the Blue Mountains Line on 13 October 2025, and on the South Coast Line on 14 April 2026. The South Coast Line rollout begins with seven 4 and 6-car sets, scaling to 16 trains by 2027 with 8-car sets later in 2026 and 10-car configurations in 2027. The project includes the Kangy Angy Maintenance Facility (operated by UGL on a 15-year contract) and extensive corridor upgrades including platform extensions, signalling modifications, balise installation and overhead wiring works.
Rail Service Improvement Program (Mortdale-Kiama)
The Rail Service Improvement Program (formerly More Trains, More Services) is a multi-billion-dollar NSW Government initiative to modernize the rail network for the Mariyung fleet. The Mortdale to Kiama package involves infrastructure upgrades including the Mortdale Maintenance Centre (active maintenance and shunting works in February 2026), platform extensions at Kiama (completed), and ongoing signaling, power supply, and station improvements at Thirroul and Shellharbour Junction to enable increased service frequency on the T4 Illawarra and South Coast lines.
Employment
Employment conditions in Mount Warrigal face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally
Mount Warrigal has a diverse workforce with both white and blue-collar jobs. The unemployment rate was 14.2% as of December 2025. Employment grew by an estimated 0.6% over the previous year.
The area's unemployment rate is higher than Regional NSW's, which is 3.9%. Workforce participation in Mount Warrigal is lower at 54.3%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. Approximately 18.5% of residents work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts may have influenced this figure. Leading employment industries include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade.
Construction stands out with employment levels at 1.5 times the regional average. Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.2% compared to Regional NSW's 5.3%. Over the year ending December 2025, employment increased by 0.6%, while labour force grew by 0.1%. This resulted in a decrease in unemployment by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, Regional NSW saw employment contract by 1.2% and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia, released in May-25, project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Mount Warrigal's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.5% over ten years. However, these projections are simple extrapolations based on current industry mixes and do not account for potential changes in population or other local factors.
Frequently Asked Questions - Employment
Income
Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment
Mount Warrigal's median income among taxpayers was $51,230 in financial year 2023. The average income stood at $62,830 during the same period. These figures are lower than Regional NSW's median and average incomes of $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. By March 2026, estimated median and average incomes in Mount Warrigal would be approximately $56,517 and $69,314 based on a 10.32% increase since financial year 2023. Census data indicates that household, family, and personal incomes in Mount Warrigal fall between the 14th and 25th percentiles nationally. The predominant income cohort spans 31.0% of locals (1,504 people) with incomes ranging from $1,500 to $2,999, similar to the regional figure of 29.9%. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Mount Warrigal, with only 82.2% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 23rd percentile nationally.
Frequently Asked Questions - Income
Housing
Mount Warrigal is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with above-average rates of outright home ownership
Mount Warrigal's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 98.0% houses and 2.0% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), contrasting with Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Mount Warrigal stood at 43.3%, with mortgaged dwellings at 30.5% and rented ones at 26.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,950, surpassing Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Mount Warrigal was $405, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Mount Warrigal's mortgage repayments exceeded the Australian average of $1,863, while rents were higher than the national figure of $375.
Frequently Asked Questions - Housing
Household Composition
Mount Warrigal features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size
Family households constitute 77.4% of all households, including 28.6% couples with children, 30.3% couples without children, and 17.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 22.6%, with lone person households at 21.3% and group households comprising 1.7%. The median household size is 2.6 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.
Frequently Asked Questions - Households
Local Schools & Education
Mount Warrigal faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally
The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 9.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (1.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.6%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (32.0%).
Educational participation is high, with 26.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.4% in primary education, 6.9% in secondary education, and 2.5% pursuing tertiary education.
Frequently Asked Questions - Education
Schools Detail
Nearby Services & Amenities
Transport
Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility
Mount Warrigal has 46 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 27 different routes that together facilitate 456 weekly passenger trips. The accessibility of transport in the area is rated as excellent, with residents on average being located just 142 meters from their nearest transport stop. As a predominantly residential area, most commuters travel outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 95% of residents. On average, there are 1.5 vehicles per dwelling in Mount Warrigal.
According to the 2021 Census, 18.5% of residents work from home, which may be partly due to COVID-19 conditions. The service frequency averages 65 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 9 weekly trips per individual stop.
Frequently Asked Questions - Transport
Transport Stops Detail
Health
Health performance in Mount Warrigal is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts
Mount Warrigal faces significant health challenges, as per AreaSearch's assessment in 2022.
The mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence are substantial across both younger and older age groups. Approximately 52% of the total population (~2,514 people) has private health cover. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis (11.1%) and mental health issues (9.1%). A majority, 61.2%, claim to be free from medical ailments compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age residents face notable health challenges with higher chronic condition rates. The area has 24.3% of residents aged 65 and over (1,179 people). Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, generally aligning with national rankings.
Frequently Asked Questions - Health
Cultural Diversity
In terms of cultural diversity, Mount Warrigal records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics
Mount Warrigal's population showed cultural diversity similar to the broader area, with 81.0% born in Australia, 90.1% being citizens, and 87.6% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion in Mount Warrigal, practiced by 58.8%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (27.1%), English (27.1%), and Other (6.6%).
Notably, Spanish (1.3%) was overrepresented compared to the regional average of 0.3%, as were Hungarian (0.5% vs 0.2%) and Macedonian (2.0% vs 0.4%).
Frequently Asked Questions - Diversity
Age
Mount Warrigal's median age exceeds the national pattern
Mount Warrigal has a median age of 42 years, similar to Regional NSW's average of 43 but considerably older than Australia's 38 years. The age profile shows that those aged 0-4 are particularly prominent at 6.6%, while the 55-64 group is comparatively smaller at 11.5% compared to Regional NSW. Between 2021 and present, the population of those aged 25-34 has grown from 11.4% to 12.4%. Conversely, the population of those aged 45-54 declined from 11.9% to 10.7%, and the 55-64 group dropped from 12.6% to 11.5%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate substantial demographic changes in Mount Warrigal, with the 25-34 cohort projected to grow by 15%, adding 89 residents to reach 691. In contrast, population declines are projected for those aged 5-14 and 65-74.