Dapto

An assessment of population growth drivers in Dapto reveals an overall ranking slightly below national averages considering recent, and medium term trends

As of November 2025, the estimated population for the Dapto statistical area (Lv2) is around 11,517, reflecting an increase of 563 people since the 2021 Census. This growth represents a 5.1% change from the previous population count of 10,954. The estimated resident population of 11,096, as calculated by AreaSearch following examination of ABS's latest ERP data release in June 2024 and validation of 45 new addresses since the Census date, indicates a population density ratio of 1,558 persons per square kilometer, above the national average. The Dapto (SA2) has demonstrated competitive growth fundamentals with its 5.1% growth rate since the Census, positioning it within 0.6 percentage points of the non-metro area's 5.7%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 40.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including overseas migration and natural growth being positive factors. AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021.

Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, the Dapto (SA2) is expected to grow by an above median rate outside capital cities, with a projected increase of 1,575 persons to 2041, reflecting a total increase of 10.8% over the 17-year period.

Residential development activity is lower than average in Dapto according to AreaSearch's national comparison of local real estate markets

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Dapto shows approximately 38 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 191 homes. As of FY26, 8 approvals have been recorded. The average number of new residents arriving per new home is around 1.1 per year between FY21 and FY25. This balance supports stable market conditions with new homes being built at an average expected construction cost value of $350,000.

In FY26, $13.7 million in commercial development approvals have been recorded, indicating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Dapto has approximately half the construction activity per person and ranks among the 37th percentile nationally, suggesting limited choices for buyers and supporting demand for existing homes. This lower-than-average national activity reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. New building activity consists of 32.0% standalone homes and 68.0% townhouses or apartments, demonstrating a shift towards denser development to cater to downsizers, investors, and entry-level buyers. This marks a significant change from the current housing mix, which is predominantly houses (85.0%). With around 465 people per dwelling approval, Dapto indicates a developed market.

Future projections estimate Dapto's population to grow by 1,239 residents by 2041. Development pace appears reasonable in relation to projected growth, although increasing competition among buyers is expected as the population expands.

Dapto has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

"Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects potentially impacting the region. Notable ones are WestPoint Dapto, Cleveland Road Upgrade - Stage 1 (Fowlers Road South), West Dapto Urban Release Area, and M1 Princes Motorway South-Facing Ramps at Dapto.".

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Employment conditions in Dapto face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Dapto has a balanced workforce with white and blue collar jobs well represented. Essential services sectors are prominent.

The unemployment rate was 8.5% as of September 2024. Employment stability was relative over the past year. As of September 2025, 5,235 residents are employed while the unemployment rate is 4.7%, higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation is similar to Rest of NSW at 56.4%. Dominant employment sectors include health care & social assistance, construction, and retail trade. Agriculture, forestry & fishing has limited presence with 0.3% employment compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The labour force decreased by 0.1% and employment declined by 0.3% in Dapto from September 2024 to September 2025, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW had an employment decline of 0.5% and labour force decline of 0.1%, with a 0.4 percentage point rise in unemployment during the same period. State-level data from 25-Nov-25 shows NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Dapto's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.5% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, based on simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income levels sit below national averages according to AreaSearch assessment

According to AreaSearch's aggregation of latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year ended June 2023, Dapto had a median income among taxpayers of $53,346 with average income standing at $65,765. This is below the national average and compares to levels of $52,390 and $65,215 across Rest of NSW respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year ended June 2023, current estimates would be approximately $58,072 (median) and $71,592 (average) as of September 2025. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for 2021, household income in Dapto ranks at the 34th percentile, family income at the 26th percentile, and personal income at the 28th percentile. Income brackets indicate that 34.3% of individuals (3,950 people) fall within the $1,500 - $2,999 range, mirroring surrounding regions where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Dapto, with only 81.6% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 31st percentile.

Dapto is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dapto's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, consisted of 84.9% houses and 15.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Non-Metro NSW's 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Dapto was at 35.6%, similar to Non-Metro NSW. The remaining dwellings were either mortgaged (39.1%) or rented (25.4%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,880, below Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was recorded at $400, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Dapto's mortgage repayments were higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceeded the national figure of $375.

Dapto has a typical household mix, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households account for 72.4% of all households, including 30.0% couples with children, 26.4% couples without children, and 14.9% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 27.6%, with lone person households at 25.0% and group households comprising 2.5%. The median household size is 2.5 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Educational outcomes in Dapto fall within the lower quartile nationally, indicating opportunities for improvement in qualification attainment

The area's university qualification rate is 12.7%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are most common at 8.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.5%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 43.5% of residents aged 15+ holding them – advanced diplomas comprise 9.7% and certificates make up 33.8%.

Educational participation is high, with 26.7% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 9.3% in primary education, 7.5% in secondary education, and 3.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

The analysis of public transport in Dapto shows that there are currently 91 active transport stops operating. These include a mix of train and bus services. A total of 54 individual routes service these stops, providing a combined weekly passenger trip count of 3,133.

The accessibility of transport is rated as excellent, with residents typically located approximately 151 meters from the nearest stop. On average, across all routes, there are 447 trips per day, which equates to roughly 34 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Dapto is well below average with prevalence of common health conditions notable across both younger and older age cohorts

Health data indicates significant health challenges in Dapto.

Both younger and older age groups have a notable prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is approximately 53% of the total population (~6,098 people), slightly higher than the average SA2 area. The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 10.6% and 10.4% of residents respectively. Conversely, 60.9% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% in Rest of NSW. Dapto has a senior population of 19.5%, comprising 2,245 people aged 65 and over. The health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

Dapto ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Dapto, as per the census data from June 2016, had a cultural diversity index below average. The majority of its population was born in Australia, with 83.9%. Citizenship stood at 91.9%, and English was spoken exclusively at home by 92.8% of residents.

Christianity was the predominant religion, practiced by 54.5% of Dapto's population, compared to 58.1% across the Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (30.2%), Australian (29.4%), and Scottish (7.5%). Notable differences existed in the representation of Welsh (0.9% vs regional 0.6%), Macedonian (1.0% vs 3.8%), and Maltese (1.2% vs 1.3%) groups.

Dapto's population aligns closely with national norms in age terms

Dapto has a median age of 38, which is lower than the Rest of NSW figure of 43 but matches the national norm of 38. The 25-34 age group makes up 14.9% of Dapto's population, higher than the Rest of NSW figure, while the 65-74 cohort comprises 8.8%, lower than the Rest of NSW figure. According to the 2021 Census, the 25-34 age group grew from 13.4% to 14.9% of Dapto's population, and the 65-74 cohort declined from 10.0% to 8.8%. By 2041, demographic modeling suggests Dapto's age profile will change significantly. The 25-34 group is projected to grow by 26%, reaching 2,156 people from 1,716. Meanwhile, population declines are forecast for the 55-64 and 15-24 cohorts.