Kembla Grange

Kembla Grange lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Based on AreaSearch's analysis of ABS population updates and new addresses validated since the Census, as of May 2026, Kembla Grange's estimated resident population is around 3,277. This reflects a significant increase from the 2021 Census figure of 1,452 people, marking a growth of 1,825 individuals or 125.7%. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2025 and an additional 720 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population density equates to approximately 226 persons per square kilometer, indicating significant space per person and potential room for further development. Kembla Grange's growth rate of 125.7% since the 2021 Census surpassed both the SA3 area (4.7%) and Rest of NSW, positioning it as a notable growth leader in the region. The primary driver behind this population growth was interstate migration, contributing approximately 77.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

However, natural growth and overseas migration also played positive roles. AreaSearch's projections for Kembla Grange are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia data released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for SA2 areas covered by this data. For areas not covered, NSW State Government's SA2-level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are utilized. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for the years 2032 to 2041. Looking ahead, Kembla Grange is projected to experience exceptional growth, ranking it among the top 10 percent of non-metropolitan areas nationally. By 2041, the suburb's population is expected to expand by approximately 2,991 persons, reflecting an increase of 91.2% in total over the 16-year period.

The level of residential development activity in Kembla Grange was found to be higher than 90% of real estate markets across the country

Based on AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers, allocated from statistical area data, Kembla Grange has seen around 131 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years. This totals an estimated 657 homes between FY-21 and FY-25. So far in FY-26, 89 approvals have been recorded. The average number of people moving to the area for each dwelling built is 3.9 per year during this period.

Demand significantly exceeds new supply, which usually results in price growth and increased buyer competition. New dwellings are developed at an average value of $430,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction. There have been $4.1 million in commercial approvals this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. Relative to Rest of NSW, Kembla Grange shows 1207.0% higher development activity per person, which should provide buyers with ample choice, though building activity has slowed in recent years. This is well above average nationally, reflecting strong developer confidence in the area. Recent construction comprises 62.0% detached houses and 38.0% medium and high-density housing, marking a significant departure from existing housing patterns (currently 80.0% houses).

The location has approximately 30 people per dwelling approval, indicating an expanding market. Looking ahead, Kembla Grange is expected to grow by 2,990 residents through to 2041, according to the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Kembla Grange has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Twelve infrastructure projects have been identified by AreaSearch as potentially impacting the area. Key projects include Brooks Reach Central Precinct, Fair Views Estate, Sydney Water's West Dapto Package 3 (Cleveland), and West Dapto Road Upgrade. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Kembla Grange demonstrate strong performance, ranking among the top 35% of areas assessed nationally

Kembla Grange has a skilled workforce with notable representation from essential services sectors. The unemployment rate was 3.9% as of December 2025. Employment growth over the past year was estimated at 12.3%.

In December 2025, 1891 residents were employed, with an unemployment rate in line with Regional NSW's 3.9%. Workforce participation was higher at 82.6% compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 27.0% of residents worked from home. Employment is concentrated in health care & social assistance, retail trade, and education & training.

Finance & insurance shows notable concentration with employment levels at 2.7 times the regional average, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.5%. Many residents commute elsewhere for work based on Census data. Over a 12-month period ending May-25, employment increased by 12.3% alongside labour force increasing by 12.5%, causing unemployment to rise by 0.3 percentage points. National employment forecasts from Jobs and Skills Australia project national employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Kembla Grange's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.8% over five years and 14.2% over ten years, according to a simple weighting extrapolation for illustrative purposes.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

In financial year 2023, Kembla Grange had a median taxpayer income of $66,457 and an average income of $82,070. These figures are among the highest in Australia, compared to regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. By March 2026, estimates suggest a median income of approximately $73,315 and an average income of $90,540, based on a 10.32% growth in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Kembla Grange rank highly nationally, between the 85th and 92nd percentiles for households, families, and individuals. The income analysis shows that 47.3% of the community (1,550 individuals) fall into the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band, mirroring the regional trend where 29.9% occupy this bracket. Kembla Grange demonstrates affluence with 33.1% earning over $3,000 per week, supporting premium retail and service offerings. High housing costs consume 18.5% of income, but strong earnings place disposable income at the 89th percentile nationally. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Kembla Grange is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Kembla Grange, as evaluated at the 2016 Census, comprised 80.2% houses and 19.8% other dwellings. In Regional NSW, it was 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Kembla Grange was 12.8%, with mortgaged dwellings at 65.6% and rented at 21.6%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $2,338, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733. Median weekly rent in Kembla Grange was $570, while Regional NSW's was $330. Nationally, Kembla Grange's mortgage repayments were higher at $2,338 compared to the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Kembla Grange features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 86.0% of all households, including couples with children (49.1%), couples without children (26.2%), and single parent families (8.8%). Non-family households account for the remaining 14.0%, with lone person households at 12.4% and group households comprising 2.1%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

Kembla Grange demonstrates exceptional educational outcomes, ranking among the top 5% of areas nationally based on AreaSearch's comprehensive analysis of qualification and performance metrics

The area's educational profile is notable regionally with university qualification rates at 26.7%, exceeding the SA3 area average of 16.9%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 19.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 4.8% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 42.4% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials - advanced diplomas at 12.9% and certificates at 29.5%.

Educational participation is high, with 30.2% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.2% in primary education, 5.7% in secondary education, and 4.5% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is moderate compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Kembla Grange has 24 operational public transport stops offering a mix of train and bus services. These stops are served by 27 different routes, facilitating 1,131 weekly passenger trips in total. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents on average located just 182 meters from the nearest stop. As a predominantly residential zone, most commuters travel outward, primarily using cars at a rate of 97%. On average, there are 1.9 vehicles per dwelling, exceeding the regional norm. According to the 2021 Census, 27% of residents work from home, which could be attributed to COVID-19 conditions.

Across all routes, service frequency averages 161 trips daily, equating to roughly 47 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Kembla Grange is notably higher than the national average with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions

Kembla Grange shows superior health outcomes based on AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with both young and elderly cohorts experiencing low prevalence of common health conditions. The rate of private health cover is notably high at approximately 59% of the total population (1,944 people), compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW.

Asthma and mental health issues are the most prevalent medical conditions in the area, affecting 9.2 and 7.8% of residents respectively, while 76.0% claim to be completely free from medical ailments, compared to 63.3% across Regional NSW. The under-65 population exhibits better than average health outcomes. The area has 7.1% of residents aged 65 and over (232 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are particularly strong, with national rankings even higher than those of the general population.

Kembla Grange ranks below the Australian average when compared to other local markets across a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Kembla Grange, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2016 data, had a low cultural diversity with 85.0% born in Australia, 92.6% being citizens, and 86.3% speaking English only at home. Christianity was the predominant religion at 57.5%, slightly higher than Regional NSW's 55.9%. The top three ancestry groups were Australian (28.2%), English (24.8%), and Other (7.4%).

Notably, Spanish (1.5%) and Macedonian (2.7%) groups were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Serbian group was also higher at 0.8%.

Kembla Grange hosts a very young demographic, ranking in the bottom 10% of areas nationwide

Kembla Grange's median age in 2021 was 29 years, which is younger than Regional NSW's median age of 43 and the national average of 38 years. The age group of 25-34 years had a strong representation at 21.8% compared to Regional NSW, while the 55-64 age group was less prevalent at 4.1%. This 25-34 concentration is higher than the national average of 14.6%. Between 2021 and present, the 35 to 44 age group has increased from 17.0% to 18.7%, and the 5 to 14 cohort has risen from 13.9% to 15.1%. Conversely, the 55 to 64 age group has decreased from 6.6% to 4.1%, and the 25 to 34 age group has fallen from 23.0% to 21.8%. Population forecasts for Kembla Grange indicate substantial demographic changes by 2041. The 25 to 34 age cohort is projected to rise significantly, with an increase of 648 people (91%) from 714 to 1,363.