Shell Cove

Shell Cove lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

As of Nov 2025, the Shell Cove statistical area (Lv2) has an estimated population of around 8,200. This reflects a growth of 609 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,591. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 7,979 following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2024, along with an additional 456 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 811 persons per square kilometer, similar to averages seen across other locations assessed by AreaSearch. The Shell Cove (SA2) experienced an 8.0% growth rate since the 2021 census, exceeding both the non-metro area's 5.7% and SA4 region's growth rates. Interstate migration contributed approximately 47.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, with all drivers including natural growth and overseas migration being positive factors.

AreaSearch is using ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 for areas not covered by the former data. These projections predict exceptional growth for the Shell Cove (SA2) over the period from 2022 to 2041, with an expected population increase of 3,567 persons, reflecting a total gain of 41.7% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Shell Cove among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers allocated from statistical area data shows Shell Cove has seen approximately 136 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 680 homes. As of FY26, 30 approvals have been recorded. On average, one person per year moves to the area for each dwelling built between FY21 and FY25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average construction value of new homes is $603,000, suggesting developers are targeting the premium market segment with higher-end properties.

In this financial year, $29.2 million in commercial approvals have been registered, demonstrating high levels of local commercial activity. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shell Cove has 99.0% more construction activity per person, indicating strong developer confidence in the area. New building activity shows 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns (currently 88.0% houses). With around 69 people per dwelling approval, Shell Cove exhibits characteristics of a growth area. Population forecasts indicate Shell Cove will gain 3,417 residents by 2041. Current construction levels should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers and potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Population forecasts indicate Shell Cove will gain 3,417 residents through to 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Shell Cove has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects that could impact the area. Notable ones are New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, and Vela Apartments. The following list details those most likely to be relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Shell Cove has been broadly consistent with national averages

Shell Cove's workforce is skilled with well-represented essential services sectors. The unemployment rate as of September 2025 was 3.3%.

Employment stability has been relative over the past year, based on AreaSearch aggregation of statistical area data. As of that date, 4,484 residents were in work while the unemployment rate was 0.6% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%. Workforce participation was at 65.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction.

The area had particular employment specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level. Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 0.3% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. Employment opportunities locally appeared limited, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. Between September 2024 and September 2025, employment levels increased by 0.2%, labour force increased by 0.5%, causing the unemployment rate to rise by 0.3 percentage points. This compared to Rest of NSW where employment fell by 0.5%, labour force contracted by 0.1%, and unemployment rose by 0.4 percentage points. State-level data to 25-Nov-25 showed NSW employment contracted by 0.03% (losing 2,260 jobs), with the state unemployment rate at 3.9%. This compared favourably to the national unemployment rate of 4.3%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 offered further insight into potential future demand within Shell Cove. These projections suggested national employment should expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these industry-specific projections to Shell Cove's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

The suburb of Shell Cove had an income level well above average nationally according to latest ATO data aggregated by AreaSearch for financial year 2023. The median income among taxpayers was $59,452 and the average income stood at $75,873. These figures compared to those for Rest of NSW which were $52,390 and $65,215 respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $64,719 (median) and $82,595 (average) as of September 2025. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes ranked exceptionally at the 89th percentile with a weekly income of $2,452. The earnings profile showed the largest segment comprised 30.3% earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, with 2,484 residents falling into this category. This reflected patterns seen in the surrounding region where 29.9% similarly occupied this range. Economic strength was evident through 40.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounted for 14.6% of income while strong earnings ranked residents within the 89th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking placed it in the 8th decile.

Shell Cove is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Dwelling structure in Shell Cove, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shell Cove was 36.7%, with mortgaged dwellings at 43.1% and rented ones at 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Shell Cove was $2,386, compared to Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Shell Cove was $600, while Non-Metro NSW's figure was $430. Nationally, Shell Cove's median monthly mortgage repayment is higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

Shell Cove features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households comprise 87.3% of all households, including 47.9% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 12.7%, with lone person households at 11.3% and group households comprising 1.2%. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Shell Cove shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Shell Cove's educational qualifications trail regional benchmarks, with 25.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to the state average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are most prevalent at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Vocational credentials are also common, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications – advanced diplomas account for 13.4% and certificates for 27.7%. Educational participation is high, with 32.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 11.0% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 31 active public transport stops in Shell Cove, served by buses via 28 routes offering 483 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 222 meters, with service frequency averaging 69 daily trips across all routes, equating to around 15 weekly trips per individual stop. Transport accessibility is rated as good.

Service frequency averages 69 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 15 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Shell Cove is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Shell Cove exhibits superior health outcomes compared to national averages, with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population. However, among older and at-risk cohorts, these rates are higher than the national average.

Private health cover is prevalent in Shell Cove, with approximately 57% (~4665 people) having it, which is higher than the Rest of NSW's 53.8%. The most common medical conditions are arthritis (7.9%) and mental health issues (7.1%). A significant portion, 71.5%, claims to be free from medical ailments, compared to 65.2% in Rest of NSW. Shell Cove has a lower proportion of residents aged 65 and over at 17.5% (1435 people), compared to the Rest of NSW's 20.9%. While health outcomes among seniors require more attention than the broader population, they present some challenges.

In terms of cultural diversity, Shell Cove records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shell Cove's population, born in Australia, was 82.2%, with 93.2% being citizens, and 87.7% speaking English only at home, aligning with the wider region's averages. Christianity was the predominant religion in Shell Cove, at 61.7%, slightly higher than the 57.3% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups were English (27.4%), Australian (26.0%), and Irish (7.1%).

Notably, Spanish (1.3%) and Macedonian (3.8%) ethnicities were overrepresented compared to regional averages of 1.0% and 1.9%, respectively. Maltese ethnicity was also slightly higher at 1.7%.

Shell Cove's population is slightly older than the national pattern

The median age in Shell Cove is 40 years, which is slightly lower than the Rest of NSW average of 43 but higher than the Australian median of 38. The 45-54 age cohort makes up 14.7% of Shell Cove's population, compared to the Rest of NSW average, indicating over-representation in this age group. Conversely, the 25-34 age cohort is under-represented at 8.2%. According to the Census conducted on August 10, 2021, the 75-84 age group has grown from 5.0% to 5.9% of Shell Cove's population since then. Meanwhile, the 5-14 age cohort has decreased from 15.0% to 13.9%. By 2041, population forecasts suggest significant demographic shifts in Shell Cove. The 35-44 age group is projected to increase by 507 people, rising from 1,180 to 1,688.