Shell Cove

Shell Cove lies within the top 10% of areas nationally in terms of population growth performance according to AreaSearch analysis of short and medium-term trends

Shell Cove's population was estimated at 8,626 as of November 2025, based on ABS population updates and new addresses validated by AreaSearch. This reflects a growth of 1,035 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 7,591. The increase was inferred from an estimated resident population of 8,371 as of June 2024, based on ABS ERP data release and additional validated new addresses. This results in a density ratio of 853 persons per square kilometer. Shell Cove's growth rate of 13.6% since the 2021 Census exceeded the non-metro area's 5.1%. Interstate migration contributed approximately 47.0% to this population gain.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2-level projections where necessary, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Future demographic trends predict exceptional growth, placing Shell Cove in the top 10 percent of Australia's regional areas by 2041. According to aggregated SA2-level projections, the suburb is expected to grow by 3,552 persons by 2041, reflecting a total gain of 34.5% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development activity positions Shell Cove among the top 25% of areas assessed nationwide

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers in Shell Cove shows around 142 new homes approved annually over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 714 homes. So far in FY-26, 22 approvals have been recorded. On average, 0.9 people moved to the area per dwelling built between FY-21 and FY-25, indicating that new supply is keeping pace with or exceeding demand. The average value of new homes being built is $603,000, slightly above the regional average, suggesting a focus on quality developments.

This financial year has seen $22.1 million in commercial approvals registered, demonstrating moderate levels of commercial development. Compared to Rest of NSW, Shell Cove has 109.0% more construction activity per person, indicating strong developer confidence in the location. New building activity shows 19.0% detached dwellings and 81.0% attached dwellings, marking a significant shift from existing housing patterns which are currently 88.0% houses. This focus on higher-density living creates more affordable entry points for downsizers, investors, and first-home buyers. With around 85 people per dwelling approval, Shell Cove shows characteristics of a growth area. Future projections estimate that Shell Cove will add approximately 2,976 residents by 2041, based on current development patterns which should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Future projections show Shell Cove adding 2,976 residents by 2041 (from the latest AreaSearch quarterly estimate). Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering good conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Shell Cove has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 20% nationally

Infrastructure changes significantly influence an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified 15 projects likely impacting the region. Notable initiatives include New Shellharbour Hospital and Integrated Services, The Waterfront Shell Cove, Shell Cove Sport and Recreation Facility, and Vela Apartments. Below is a list detailing those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

Denotes AI-based impression for illustrative purposes only, not to be taken as definitive under any circumstances. Please follow links and conduct other investigations from the project's source for actual imagery. Developers and project owners wishing us to use original imagery please Contact Us and we will do so.

Employment performance in Shell Cove exceeds national averages across key labour market indicators

Shell Cove has a skilled workforce with essential services sectors well represented. The unemployment rate was 2.8% in the past year, with an estimated employment growth of 0.7%.

As of June 2025, 4,379 residents were in work, and the unemployment rate was 0.9% below Rest of NSW's rate of 3.7%. Workforce participation was 65.0%, compared to Rest of NSW's 56.4%. Leading employment industries among residents comprised health care & social assistance, education & training, and construction. The area had particular employment specialization in manufacturing, with an employment share of 1.3 times the regional level.

Agriculture, forestry & fishing had limited presence with 0.3% employment compared to 5.3% regionally. Employment opportunities appeared limited locally, as indicated by Census working population vs resident population count. During the year to June 2025, employment levels increased by 0.7%, and labour force increased by 0.8%, leaving unemployment broadly flat. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.1%, labour force expand by 0.3%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 estimated future demand within Shell Cove. National employment was forecast to expand by 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, with growth rates differing significantly between industry sectors. Applying these projections to Shell Cove's employment mix suggested local employment should increase by 6.4% over five years and 13.5% over ten years.

Income metrics indicate excellent economic conditions, with the area achieving higher performance than 75% of national locations assessed by AreaSearch

Shell Cove's median income among taxpayers was $59,452 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $75,873 during the same period. These figures are higher than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimated median income would be approximately $66,949, based on a 12.61% growth in wages since financial year 2022. The average income is estimated to reach around $85,441 by the same date. According to the 2021 Census, Shell Cove's household incomes rank at the 89th percentile, with a weekly median of $2,452. In terms of earnings profile, 30.3% of residents earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which is similar to the surrounding region where 29.9% fall within this range. Economic strength is evident with 40.0% of households achieving high weekly earnings exceeding $3,000, supporting elevated consumer spending. Housing accounts for 14.6% of income, while strong earnings place residents in the 89th percentile for disposable income. The area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the 8th decile.

Shell Cove is characterized by a predominantly suburban housing profile, with ownership patterns similar to the broader region

Shell Cove's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, was 87.6% houses and 12.4% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 79.0% houses and 21.0% other dwellings. Home ownership in Shell Cove was 36.7%, similar to Non-Metro NSW's level. Mortgaged dwellings were 43.1% and rented dwellings were 20.2%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in Shell Cove was $2,386, higher than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,167. Median weekly rent in Shell Cove was $600, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $430. Nationally, Shell Cove's mortgage repayments were significantly higher at $2,386 versus the Australian average of $1,863. Rents in Shell Cove were substantially above the national figure of $375.

Shell Cove features high concentrations of family households, with a higher-than-average median household size

Family households account for 87.3% of all households, including 47.9% couples with children, 31.0% couples without children, and 8.2% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 12.7%, with lone person households at 11.3% and group households comprising 1.2% of the total. The median household size is 3.0 people, larger than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Shell Cove shows strong educational performance, ranking in the upper quartile nationally when assessed across multiple qualification and achievement indicators

Educational qualifications in Shell Cove trail regional benchmarks with 25.2% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 32.2% in NSW. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.4%) and graduate diplomas (2.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (27.7%).

Educational participation is notably high, with 32.3% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 11.0% in primary education, 10.5% in secondary education, and 4.3% pursuing tertiary education. Educational provision includes Shell Cove Public School and Illawarra Environmental Education Centre, collectively serving 444 students while the area demonstrates above-average socio-educational conditions (ICSEA: 1051). The educational mix includes one primary school and one K-12 school. Limited local school capacity (5.2 places per 100 residents vs 14.2 regionally) means many families travel to nearby areas for schooling. Note: where schools show 'n/a' for enrolments please refer to parent campus.

Transport servicing is low compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Shell Cove has 29 active public transport stops operating within its boundaries. These stops serve a mix of bus routes, totalling 28 individual routes. Together, these routes facilitate 502 weekly passenger trips.

The accessibility of transport in Shell Cove is rated as good, with residents on average located 222 meters from the nearest transport stop. Across all routes, service frequency averages 71 trips per day, which equates to approximately 17 weekly trips per individual stop.

The level of general health in Shell Cove is notably higher than the national average with prevalence of common health conditions low among the general population though higher than the nation's average across older, at risk cohorts

Shell Cove shows better-than-average health outcomes with a low prevalence of common health conditions among its general population, although this rate is higher among older, at-risk cohorts compared to national averages. Approximately 57% (~4,908 people) of Shell Cove's total population has private health cover, which is higher than the 52.7% found in the Rest of NSW.

The most prevalent medical conditions are arthritis and mental health issues, affecting 7.9 and 7.1% of residents respectively, while 71.5% claim to be completely free from medical ailments compared to the 65.2% across the Rest of NSW. The area has a lower proportion of seniors aged 65 and over at 17.5% (1,509 people), compared to the 20.9% in the Rest of NSW. However, health outcomes among seniors require more attention than those in the broader population.

In terms of cultural diversity, Shell Cove records figures broadly comparable to the national average, as found in AreaSearch's assessment of a number of language and cultural background related metrics

Shell Cove's population, like the broader region, is predominantly Australian-born with 82.2%, and citizens at 93.2%. English is spoken exclusively at home by 87.7% of residents. Christianity is the predominant religion in Shell Cove at 61.7%, slightly higher than the Rest of NSW's 57.3%.

The top three ancestry groups are English (27.4%), Australian (26.0%), and Irish (7.1%). Notable differences exist in Spanish (1.3% vs regional 1.0%), Macedonian (3.8% vs 1.9%), and Maltese (1.7% vs 1.3%) representations.

Shell Cove's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Shell Cove is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above the Australian median of 38. The 45-54 age cohort makes up 14.7% of Shell Cove's population, notably higher than the Rest of NSW average, while the 25-34 cohort is under-represented at 8.2%. Between the 2021 Census and present, the 75 to 84 age group has increased from 5.0% to 5.9% of the population. Conversely, the 5 to 14 age group has decreased from 15.0% to 13.9%. Population forecasts for 2041 indicate significant demographic changes in Shell Cove, with the 35 to 44 age cohort projected to grow by 447 people (36%), from 1,242 to 1,690.