Warrawong

Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warrawong is around 4,742. This figure reflects an increase of 83 people since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4,659. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population at 4,729 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, and an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of 1,803 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration contributed approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods, driving primary growth for the area.

AreaSearch is adopting ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These aggregations are used to project growth rates by age group until 2041. By 2041, the suburb of Warrawong is anticipated to increase by 31 persons based on aggregated SA2-level projections, reflecting an overall gain of 0.4% over the 17 years.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong has recorded approximately 15 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 79 homes. As of FY-26, 6 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply is likely keeping up with demand, offering buyers good choice while new homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $425,000, moderately above regional levels, indicating emphasis on quality construction. This financial year, $9.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character.

Compared to Rest of NSW, Warrawong shows approximately half the construction activity per person and places among the 48th percentile nationally, implying somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. This level reflects the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 80.0% detached houses and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Warrawong's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. The area indicates a mature market with around 344 people per approval.

Population forecasts suggest Warrawong will gain 18 residents by 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Warrawong has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Nine projects identified by AreaSearch are expected to impact the area, significantly influencing its performance. Key projects include Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, Warrawong Community Health Centre, Warrawong Plaza Redevelopment, and Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home. The following list details those likely to be most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong's workforce is balanced across white and blue-collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. Its unemployment rate was 22.3% as of AreaSearch's statistical aggregation. By December 2025, 1,351 residents were employed, but the unemployment rate was 18.3% higher than Regional NSW's 3.9%.

Workforce participation in Warrawong was lower at 45.1%, compared to Regional NSW's 61.3%. Home-based work accounted for 15.7% of jobs, considering Covid-19 lockdown impacts. Key industries included health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Retail trade had a higher share of employment at 1.6 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing was lower at 0.6%.

The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.8. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels remained stable while employment declined by 2.8%, leading to a 2.3 percentage point rise in unemployment. This contrasted with Regional NSW's 1.2% employment decline and 0.4 percentage point unemployment increase. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years, but local projections based on Warrawong's industry mix suggest a 6.2% increase over five years and 13.1% over ten years.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Warrawong's median income among taxpayers is $42,355, with an average of $52,189. This is below the national average and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since financial year 2023, current estimates for Warrawong would be approximately $46,108 (median) and $56,813 (average) as of September 2025. According to Census 2021 income data, household, family and personal incomes in Warrawong all fall between the 1st and 2nd percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows that 31.7% of residents (1,503 people) earn within the $400 - 799 bracket, contrasting with the surrounding region where the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket leads at 29.9%. Lower income households are notably prevalent, with 45.3% earning below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warrawong, with only 78.3% of income remaining, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warrawong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warrawong's dwelling structure, as per the latest Census, consisted of 65.5% houses and 34.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). This compares to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrawong stood at 34.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 15.7% and rented dwellings at 49.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,725, below Regional NSW's average of $1,733. Median weekly rent in Warrawong was $270, compared to Regional NSW's $330. Nationally, Warrawong's mortgage repayments were lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially below the national figure of $375.

Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 61.2% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 20.2% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common, with 7.6% of residents holding one, followed by postgraduate qualifications at 2.5% and graduate diplomas at 1.0%. Vocational credentials are prevalent among residents aged 15+, with 33.3% holding them, including advanced diplomas (7.4%) and certificates (25.9%). Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes primary education (10.2%), secondary education (9.0%), and tertiary education (2.8%).

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrawong has 51 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 34 different routes that together facilitate 1,057 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically situated just 152 meters from the nearest stop. As a mainly residential zone, most inhabitants commute outward. Cars remain the primary mode of transportation, used by 90% of residents. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional norm.

According to the 2021 Census, 15.7% of residents work from home, a figure that may be influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 151 trips are made daily, translating to roughly 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrawong is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warrawong faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Multiple health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low at approximately 48% of Warrawong's total population (~2,258 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 10.9% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 60.8% of residents report having no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. Working-age individuals face substantial health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Warrawong has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,019 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning with national rankings for the general population.

Warrawong is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warrawong's cultural diversity is notable, with 36.8% of its population born overseas and 38.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrawong, accounting for 61.4%, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.5%), English (18.6%), and Other (15.2%).

Notably, Macedonian ancestry is overrepresented at 8.3% in Warrawong versus 0.4% regionally, as are Spanish (1.6% vs 0.3%) and Serbian (1.4% vs 0.2%) ancestry groups.

Warrawong's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Warrawong is 40 years, which is slightly below Regional NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 age cohort makes up 14.6% of Warrawong's population, higher than the Regional NSW average, while those aged 65-74 comprise 9.9%, lower than the regional norm. Between the 2021 Census and the present, the 0-4 age group has increased from 6.2% to 7.9%, and the 25-34 cohort has risen from 12.9% to 14.6%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 11.7% to 10.6%. By 2041, Warrawong's population is projected to see significant changes. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 80 people, from 369 to 450, a 22% increase. Meanwhile, the 5-14 and 85+ age groups are forecasted to decrease in population.