Warrawong

Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of November 2025, Warrawong's population is estimated at around 4671 people. This reflects an increase of 12 individuals since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 4659 people. The change was inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population based on ABS ERP data released in June 2024 and validation of 20 new addresses since the Census date. This results in a population density ratio of approximately 1776 persons per square kilometer, higher than average national levels assessed by AreaSearch. The primary driver for this growth was overseas migration, contributing around 69% of total population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch uses ABS/Geoscience Australia projections for each SA2 area, released in 2024 with a base year of 2022, and NSW State Government's SA2 level projections for areas not covered by this data, released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. These projections anticipate lower quartile growth for locations outside capital cities, expecting Warrawong to increase by 34 persons to 2041, reflecting a total gain of approximately 0.3% over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

AreaSearch analysis of ABS building approval numbers shows Warrawong had around 12 residential properties approved per year over the past five financial years to June 2021, totalling an estimated 64 homes. As of FY-26, four approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline has likely been matched by new supply meeting demand, providing good options for buyers.

New homes are being built at an average expected construction cost value of $425,000, in line with regional patterns. Compared to the rest of NSW, Warrawong has 56.0% less development activity per person. This limited new supply generally supports stronger demand and values for established homes. The area's development level is also below the national average, suggesting its established nature and potential planning limitations. Recent construction comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining Warrawong's traditional suburban character focused on family homes.

With around 465 people per dwelling approval, Warrawong indicates a developed market. According to AreaSearch's latest quarterly estimate, the area is projected to grow by 14 residents by 2041. Based on current development patterns, new housing supply should readily meet demand, offering favourable conditions for buyers and potentially facilitating population growth beyond current projections.

Warrawong has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly impact an area's performance. AreaSearch identified nine projects likely affecting the region. Notable ones are Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, Warrawong Community Health Centre, Warrawong Plaza Redevelopment, and Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home. The following list outlines those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong's workforce is balanced across white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominent. The unemployment rate was 18.7% as of June 2025.

Over the past year, employment stability has been relative. Compared to Rest of NSW's 3.7%, Warrawong's unemployment rate was 15.0% higher in June 2025. Workforce participation lagged significantly at 38.7%. Dominant sectors include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade is notably concentrated with employment levels at 1.6 times the regional average. Agriculture, forestry & fishing is under-represented at 0.6% compared to Rest of NSW's 5.3%. The worker-to-resident ratio was 0.8 as at the Census, indicating above-norm local employment opportunities. Between June 2024 and June 2025, employment increased by 0.4%, labour force by 0.1%, leading to a unemployment fall of 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, Rest of NSW saw employment contract by 0.1% while unemployment rose by 0.4%. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from Sep-22 suggest total employment growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrawong's employment mix, local employment is estimated to increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple extrapolations for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

Warrawong's median income among taxpayers was $42,355 in financial year 2022. The average income stood at $52,189 during the same period. These figures are lower than those for Rest of NSW, which were $49,459 and $62,998 respectively. By September 2025, estimates suggest Warrawong's median income will be approximately $47,696 and average income around $58,770, based on a 12.61% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2022. According to the 2021 Census, incomes in Warrawong fall between the 1st and 2nd percentiles nationally for households, families, and individuals. Income analysis shows that 31.7% of Warrawong residents earn between $400 and $799 weekly, compared to 29.9% in the surrounding region who earn between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly. A significant portion of households, 45.3%, earn below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warrawong, with only 78.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warrawong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warrawong's dwelling structures, as per the latest Census, were 65.5% houses and 34.5% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings). In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 85.5% houses and 14.5% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrawong was at 34.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 15.7% and rented ones at 49.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,725, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $2,000. The median weekly rent figure was $270, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $365. Nationally, Warrawong's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a lower-than-average median household size

Family households constitute 61.2% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 20.2% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households comprising 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which is smaller than the Rest of NSW average of 2.6.

Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area faces educational challenges with university qualification rates at 11.1%, substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Trade and technical skills are prominent, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas at 7.4% and certificates at 25.9%.

Educational participation is notably high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education. Warrawong's four schools have a combined enrollment reaching 1,169 students while the area demonstrates varied educational conditions (ICSEA: 917). Education provision is balanced with three primary and one secondary school serving distinct age groups. The area functions as an education hub with 25.0 school places per 100 residents – significantly above the regional average of 12.9 – attracting students from surrounding communities.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Transport analysis shows 48 active transport stops in Warrawong, served by buses via 34 routes offering 1035 weekly passenger trips. Residents' average proximity to the nearest stop is 152 meters, with service frequency averaging 147 daily trips across all routes, equating to about 21 weekly trips per stop.

Service frequency averages 147 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 21 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrawong is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warrawong faces significant health challenges, with various conditions affecting both younger and older residents. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% (around 2,224 people), compared to 51.4% across Rest of NSW and a national average of 55.3%. Mental health issues and arthritis are the most prevalent conditions, affecting 10.9% and 10.5% of residents respectively.

However, 60.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.9% across Rest of NSW. The area has a higher proportion of seniors aged 65 and over, at 21.0% (980 people), than the 19.0% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors are broadly similar to those of the general population.

Warrawong is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warrawong has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.8% of its population born overseas and 38.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the main religion in Warrawong, making up 61.4% of people, compared to 58.1% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.5%), English (18.6%), and Other (15.2%).

Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) is overrepresented in Warrawong compared to the regional average of 3.8%. Spanish (1.6%) and Serbian (1.4%) also have higher representation than the regional averages of 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

Warrawong hosts an older demographic, ranking in the top quartile nationwide

The median age in Warrawong is 40 years, which is slightly below Rest of NSW's average of 43 but above Australia's median of 38. The 25-34 cohort makes up 14.3% of Warrawong's population, compared to the Rest of NSW average, while the 65-74 age group constitutes 9.7%. Between the 2021 Census and now, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.9% to 14.3%, and the 0-4 cohort has risen from 6.2% to 7.6%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 11.7% to 10.5%. By 2041, Warrawong's population is projected to see significant changes. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 85 people (24%), from 354 to 440. Meanwhile, the 85+ and 5-14 cohorts are predicted to decrease in population.