Warrawong

Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of Feb 2026, Warrawong's population is estimated at around 4,742, reflecting an increase of 83 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of 1.8%. The change is inferred from AreaSearch's estimation of the resident population as 4,729 following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS in June 2024, along with an additional 22 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population results in a density ratio of 1,803 persons per square kilometer, which is above the average seen across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Population growth for Warrawong was primarily driven by overseas migration contributing approximately 69.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

For projections, AreaSearch adopts ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022 for each SA2 area. For areas not covered by this data, AreaSearch utilises the NSW State Government's SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021. Growth rates by age group from these aggregations are applied to all areas for years 2032 to 2041. Based on aggregated SA2-level projections, Warrawong is expected to increase by 32 persons to reach 4,774 by 2041, reflecting a reduction of 1.2% in total over the 17-year period.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong has recorded approximately 15 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years ending June 2021. This totals an estimated 78 homes. In the current financial year, FY-26, six approvals have been recorded as of this date. The area's population decline suggests that new supply has likely kept up with demand, offering good choice to buyers.

The average value of new homes being built is $425,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction. Additionally, $9.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered this financial year, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warrawong shows approximately half the construction activity per person. Nationally, it places among the 46th percentile of areas assessed, indicating somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes.

This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction in Warrawong comprises 80.0% standalone homes and 20.0% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space. With around 358 people per dwelling approval, Warrawong shows a developed market. Given population projections indicating stability or decline, Warrawong should see reduced housing demand pressures in the future, benefiting potential buyers.

Warrawong has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

The performance of a region is significantly influenced by changes in its local infrastructure, major projects, and planning initiatives. AreaSearch has identified nine projects that are expected to impact this area. Notable projects include Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, Warrawong Community Health Centre, Warrawong Plaza Redevelopment, and Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home. The following list details those projects considered most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong has a balanced workforce comprising white and blue collar jobs, with manufacturing and industrial sectors prominently represented. The unemployment rate in Warrawong was 21.4% as per AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data. As of September 2025, 1,360 residents were employed while the unemployment rate stood at 17.6%, which is 13.8 percentage points higher than Rest of NSW's rate of 3.8%.

Workforce participation in Warrawong was recorded at 45.3% compared to Rest of NSW's 61.5%, indicating a significant lag. According to Census responses, 15.7% of residents worked from home. The key industries of employment among residents were health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction. Warrawong had a notable specialization in retail trade with an employment share of 1.6 times the regional level.

Conversely, agriculture, forestry & fishing showed lower representation at 0.6% compared to the regional average of 5.3%. The ratio of workers to residents stood at 0.8, indicating local employment opportunities above the norm. Over the 12 months to September 2025, labour force levels decreased by 0.4%, and employment declined by 1.9% in Warrawong, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 1.2 percentage points. In comparison, Rest of NSW saw employment fall by 0.5%, labour force contract by 0.1%, and unemployment rise by 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project an increase of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years for national employment. Applying these projections to Warrawong's employment mix suggests local employment should increase by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though these are simple weighted extrapolations for illustrative purposes and do not account for localised population projections.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 indicates Warrawong's median income among taxpayers is $42,355. The average income in the suburb was $52,189 during this period. Both figures are below national averages. Comparatively, Rest of NSW had a median income of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 in financial year 2023. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 8.86% since then, estimated incomes for Warrawong as of September 2025 would be approximately $46,108 (median) and $56,813 (average). Census 2021 data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Warrawong fall between the 1st and 2nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution reveals that 31.7% of residents earn between $400 and $799 weekly, contrasting with surrounding regions where the $1,500 - $2,999 bracket is dominant at 29.9%. A significant portion, 45.3%, earns below $800 weekly, indicating affordability pressures. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only 78.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warrawong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

Warrawong's dwelling structure, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 65.5% houses and 34.5% other dwellings. In comparison, Non-Metro NSW had 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrawong stood at 34.4%, with mortgaged dwellings at 15.7% and rented ones at 49.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment was $1,725, lower than Non-Metro NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Warrawong was $270, compared to Non-Metro NSW's $330. Nationally, Warrawong's mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households constitute 61.2% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 20.2% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households comprise the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households making up 2.4%. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the average for the Rest of NSW.

Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prevalent, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding them - advanced diplomas at 7.4% and certificates at 25.9%. Educational participation is high, with 28.9% currently enrolled in formal education.

This includes 10.2% in primary, 9.0% in secondary, and 2.8% in tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrawong has 51 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 34 different routes, together offering 1057 weekly passenger trips. The area's transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically living 152 meters from the nearest stop. Most residents commute outward daily due to Warrawong being primarily residential. Cars remain the dominant mode of transport, used by 90% of residents. On average, there are 0.9 vehicles per dwelling, which is below the regional average.

According to the 2021 Census, 15.7% of residents work from home, a figure possibly influenced by COVID-19 conditions. Across all routes, an average of 151 trips are made daily, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrawong is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warrawong faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. A variety of health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, with approximately 48% of Warrawong's total population (~2,258 people) having it, compared to 51.9% in Rest of NSW and the national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 10.9% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 60.8% of residents claim to have no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Rest of NSW. The working-age population experiences notable health challenges due to high chronic condition rates. Warrawong has 21.1% of residents aged 65 and over (1,000 people), lower than the 23.4% in Rest of NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, aligning broadly with national rankings for the general population.

Warrawong is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warrawong has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.8% of its population born overseas and 38.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrawong, making up 61.4% of people, compared to 55.9% across Rest of NSW. The top three ancestry groups are Australian (19.5%), English (18.6%), and Other (15.2%).

Notably, Macedonian (8.3%) is overrepresented in Warrawong compared to the regional average of 0.4%, Spanish (1.6% vs 0.3%), and Serbian (1.4% vs 0.2%) also have higher representation than the regional averages.

Warrawong's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Warrawong is 40 years, which is slightly lower than Rest of NSW's average of 43 but higher than Australia's median of 38. Compared to Rest of NSW, the 25-34 age group is more prevalent in Warrawong at 14.5%, while the 65-74 age group is less common at 9.7%. According to the 2021 Census, the population of 0-4 year-olds has increased from 6.2% to 7.8%, and the 25-34 cohort has grown from 12.9% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 11.7% to 10.4%. By 2041, significant demographic changes are projected for Warrawong. The 75-84 age cohort is expected to grow by 74 people (21%), from 365 to 440. Meanwhile, the 85+ and 5-14 age groups are forecasted to experience population declines.