Warrawong

Warrawong has shown very soft population growth performance across periods assessed by AreaSearch

As of May 2026, the estimated population of the suburb of Warrawong is around 4,692, reflecting an increase of 33 people since the 2021 Census. This increase represents a growth rate of approximately 0.7%. The latest resident population estimate by AreaSearch, following examination of ABS ERP data released in June 2025, stands at 4,673, with an additional 20 validated new addresses added since the Census date contributing to this change. This results in a population density ratio of 1,784 persons per square kilometer, higher than the average across national locations assessed by AreaSearch. Overseas migration has been the primary driver for population growth in the area, accounting for approximately 69% of overall population gains during recent periods.

AreaSearch's projections for Warrawong are based on ABS/Geoscience Australia projections released in 2024 with a base year of 2022. For areas not covered by this data, NSW State Government SA2 level projections released in 2022 with a base year of 2021 are used. These projections indicate that the suburb is expected to increase by 27 persons to reach an estimated population of 4,719 by the year 2041, reflecting a total growth rate of approximately 0.6% over the 16-year period from 2025 to 2041.

AreaSearch assessment of residential development drivers sees a low level of activity in Warrawong, placing the area among the bottom 25% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong has recorded approximately 15 residential properties granted approval per year over the past five financial years, totalling an estimated 79 homes. As of FY26, 8 approvals have been recorded. The area's population decline suggests that new supply is likely keeping up with demand, offering good choice to buyers. The average construction value of new homes is $425,000, which is moderately above regional levels, indicating an emphasis on quality construction.

This year, $9.1 million in commercial approvals have been registered, suggesting the area's residential character. Compared to the Rest of NSW, Warrawong shows approximately half the construction activity per person and places among the 48th percentile of areas assessed nationally, meaning somewhat limited buyer options while strengthening demand for established homes. This level is also below average nationally, reflecting the area's maturity and possible planning constraints. Recent construction comprises 80% detached houses and 20% townhouses or apartments, maintaining the area's traditional suburban character with a focus on family homes appealing to those seeking space.

With around 349 people per approval, Warrawong indicates a mature market. Population forecasts indicate Warrawong will gain 8 residents through to 2041. With current construction levels, housing supply should adequately meet demand, creating favourable conditions for buyers while potentially enabling growth that exceeds current forecasts.

Warrawong has very high levels of nearby infrastructure activity, ranking in the top 10% nationally

Changes to local infrastructure significantly affect an area's performance. AreaSearch has identified nine projects likely to impact the region. Notable ones are Southern Suburbs Community Centre and Library, Warrawong Community Health Centre, Warrawong Plaza Redevelopment, and Salvation Army Housing - Warrawong Group Home. The following list provides details on those most relevant.

Professional plan users can use the search below to filter and access additional projects.

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Employment conditions in Warrawong face significant challenges, ranking among the bottom 10% of areas assessed nationally

Warrawong has a balanced workforce with both white and blue collar jobs. Manufacturing and industrial sectors are prominent. The unemployment rate was 22.0% based on AreaSearch's aggregation of statistical area data.

As of December 2025, there were 1,384 residents employed while the unemployment rate was 18.0% higher than Regional NSW's rate of 3.9%. Workforce participation in Warrawong is lower at 46.4%, compared to Regional NSW's 60.5%. According to Census responses, 15.7% of residents worked from home. Key industries include health care & social assistance, retail trade, and construction.

Retail trade is particularly specialized with an employment share 1.6 times the regional level, while agriculture, forestry & fishing has lower representation at 0.6%. The ratio of workers to residents was 0.8 as per the Census, indicating local employment opportunities above average. Over the year to December 2025, labour force levels increased by 0.6% but employment declined by 1.9%, leading to a rise in unemployment rate by 2.1 percentage points. In comparison, Regional NSW saw an employment fall of 1.2%, labour force contraction of 0.8%, and an unemployment increase of 0.4 percentage points. Jobs and Skills Australia's national employment forecasts from May-25 project overall growth of 6.6% over five years and 13.7% over ten years. Applying these projections to Warrawong's industry mix suggests local employment should grow by 6.2% over five years and 13.1% over ten years, though this is a simple extrapolation for illustrative purposes only.

Income metrics place the area in the bottom 10% of locations nationally according to AreaSearch analysis

AreaSearch's latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 shows Warrawong had a median taxpayer income of $42,355 and an average of $52,189. Both figures are below the national averages. Regional NSW's median was $52,390 with an average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023, current estimates for Warrawong would be approximately $46,726 (median) and $57,575 (average) by March 2026. Census 2021 data indicates Warrawong's household, family, and personal incomes fall between the 1st and 2nd percentiles nationally. Income distribution shows 31.7% of residents earn between $400 - 799 weekly, contrasting with the surrounding region where 29.9% earn between $1,500 - 2,999 weekly. Notably, 45.3% of Warrawong's residents earn below $800 weekly, suggesting affordability pressures. Housing affordability pressures are severe in Warrawong, with only 78.3% of income remaining after housing costs, ranking at the 3rd percentile nationally.

Warrawong displays a diverse mix of dwelling types, with a higher proportion of rental properties than the broader region

In Warrawong, as per the latest Census evaluation, 65.5% of dwellings were houses, with the remaining 34.5% comprising semi-detached homes, apartments, and other types. This is in contrast to Regional NSW's figures of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Home ownership in Warrawong stood at 34.4%, with mortgaged properties making up 15.7% and rented dwellings accounting for 49.9%. The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was $1,725, lower than Regional NSW's average of $1,733. The median weekly rent in Warrawong was recorded at $270, compared to $330 in Regional NSW. Nationally, Warrawong's median monthly mortgage repayments were below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents were substantially lower than the national figure of $375.

Warrawong features high concentrations of lone person households, with a fairly typical median household size

Family households account for 61.2% of all households, including 22.2% couples with children, 20.2% couples without children, and 17.3% single parent families. Non-family households constitute the remaining 38.8%, with lone person households at 36.3% and group households comprising 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 2.4 people, which aligns with the Regional NSW average.

Warrawong faces educational challenges, with performance metrics placing it in the bottom quartile of areas assessed nationally

The area's university qualification rate is 11.1%, significantly lower than the NSW average of 32.2%. This disparity presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most prevalent at 7.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.5%) and graduate diplomas (1.0%). Vocational credentials are prominent, with 33.3% of residents aged 15+ holding such qualifications, including advanced diplomas (7.4%) and certificates (25.9%).

Educational participation is high, with 28.9% of residents currently enrolled in formal education. This includes 10.2% in primary education, 9.0% in secondary education, and 2.8% pursuing tertiary education.

Transport servicing is good compared to other areas nationally based on assessment of service frequency, route connectivity and accessibility

Warrawong has 51 active public transport stops, all of which are bus stops. These stops are served by 34 different routes that collectively facilitate 1,057 weekly passenger trips. The average distance from a resident's location to the nearest transport stop is 152 meters, indicating excellent transport accessibility. Despite this, car remains the primary mode of commuting for residents, with 90% using it. This is reflected in the average vehicle ownership rate of 0.9 per dwelling, which is lower than the regional average. According to the 2021 Census, 15.7% of Warrawong's residents work from home, a figure that may have been influenced by COVID-19 conditions.

The service frequency averages 151 trips per day across all routes, equating to approximately 20 weekly trips per individual stop.

Health performance in Warrawong is a key challenge with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts

Warrawong faces significant health challenges, as indicated by AreaSearch's assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence. Several health conditions affect both younger and older age groups. Private health cover is low, at approximately 48% of the total population (around 2,234 people), compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

Mental health issues and arthritis are the most common conditions, affecting 10.9% and 10.5% of residents respectively. However, 60.8% of residents report no medical ailments, compared to 63.3% in Regional NSW. The working-age population has notably high chronic condition rates. Warrawong has 21.5% of residents aged 65 and over (1,008 people), lower than the 23.4% in Regional NSW. Health outcomes among seniors present some challenges, with national rankings broadly inline with the general population.

Warrawong is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country based on AreaSearch assessment of a range of language and cultural background related metrics

Warrawong has a high level of cultural diversity, with 36.8% of its population born overseas and 38.5% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the predominant religion in Warrawong, practiced by 61.4% of people, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW. The top three ancestry groups in Warrawong are Australian (19.5%), English (18.6%), and Other (15.2%).

These figures are lower than the regional averages for Australian (30.0%) and English (30.5%) ancestry, but substantially higher for Other ancestry (4.8%). Notably, Macedonian (8.3%), Spanish (1.6%), and Serbian (1.4%) ethnic groups are overrepresented in Warrawong compared to their regional averages of 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively.

Warrawong's median age exceeds the national pattern

The median age in Warrawong is 40 years, which is slightly lower than Regional NSW's average of 43 but higher than the Australian median of 38. Compared to Regional NSW, Warrawong has a notably higher percentage of people aged 25-34 (14.5% locally) and a lower percentage of those aged 65-74 (9.7%). Between the 2021 Census and present, the 25-34 age group has increased from 12.9% to 14.5%, while the 0-4 cohort has grown from 6.2% to 7.4%. Conversely, the 55-64 age group has decreased from 11.7% to 10.7%. Population forecasts for Warrawong in 2041 indicate significant demographic changes. The 75-84 age cohort is projected to expand by 87 people (24%), from 370 to 458, while the 85+ and 5-14 cohorts are expected to decrease in population.